2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 6

Right on schedule, it happened.  The league has split into three divisions.  The top tier is Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa.  The second tier is Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Minnesota.  The bottom tier is Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana and Illinois.  Now it's possible that Wisconsin or Michigan may sneak out a win over a top tier team. And my relegation of Northwestern to the bottom tier in no way means that they can't make a bowl.  However, barring something unforeseen, you will not see a second tier team in a better bowl than a top tier team.  You will not see a bottom tier team (if bowl eligible) in a better bowl than a second tier team.  

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Michigan's Rose Bowl dreams officially slipped away last night.

Inside the tiers, everything is up for grabs.  Also, and I can't emphasize this enough, the Big Ten as a league is MUCH stronger than it was last year.  This league goes five deep with good teams.  The sixth and seventh teams are much stronger than last year's equivalents.  Don't back down from others when arguing conference superiority.  We don't have Florida and Alabama at the top, but we're stronger in the top half than anyone (not named SEC).  The projections follow below.

Remember the rules.

  1. These are projections.  I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
  2. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.  
  3. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
  4. The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
  5. For the full rules on BCS selections, look here
Bcs_championship_logo2009_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium Alabama_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_old5_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium I still think that Texas goes undefeated, although that first half performance did give me pause.
Orangebowl_2005_small_medium_medium_medium_medium Virginia_tech_medium_medium_medium Iowa_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium If Va Tech beats Ga Tech this weekend, you can write them in pen here.
Fiestabowl_2006_medium_medium_medium_medium Notre_dame_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_christian_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium I'll say it again: Notre Dame is going to lose to USC.  I'm going to keep them in the Fiesta Bowl.  10-2 Notre Dame goes here.  TCU is not losing this season.
Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium Florida_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Cincinnati_medium_medium_medium_medium You can pencil in this matchup. You can put in ink that it will be the SEC Championship Game loser versus the Big East Champion.
Rosebowl_small_medium_medium_medium_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Southern_california_medium_medium_medium I'll admit that Oregon is giving me pause.  If they could beat USC in Eugene...
Capitalonebowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium Penn_state_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Lsu_medium_medium Put the winner of the LSU/Ole Miss game here.  The loser will end up in the Cotton Bowl.
Outbackbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Auburn_medium A note about this pick: after the Capital One Bowl picks an SEC team, the Outback gets first choice of the East Division teams and the Cotton Bowl gets first choice of the West Division teams.  If the Outback wants a team from the West, it picks it after the Cotton selects.  That has never happened while this alignment has existed.  I think this year will see the first time.  I suspect an energized Auburn fanbase is more exciting to the Outback than a return trip for South Carolina or a mediocre Georgia or Tennessee squad.
Champssportsbowl_2004_medium_medium_medium_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Clemson_medium I think that the Chick-Fil-A takes Miami, the Gator takes Georgia Tech, and that leaves one of the mid-level ACC teams here.  Your guess is as good as mine.  I'm taking Clemson because they have a great fanbase that puts butts in the seats.
Alamobowl_2007sm_medium_medium_medium_medium Minnesota_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Kansas_medium_medium_medium_medium The winner of the 10/31 Spartan-Gopher game goes here.
Insightbowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_tech_medium_medium_medium If Sparty continues improving, they could rise as high as the Outback.  But that will take some help.  I think that this will be the fourth place team in the Big 12 South.
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Northwestern_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Central_michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium This is what six wins buys Northwestern...
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Indiana_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Illinois_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Purdue_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

As a fan, which of these teams' performances was most disgusting?  Indiana, who never showed up?  Illinois, who never showed up?  Purdue, who showed up and then fumbled away a lead?  No trips for any of you.  You will be On the Couch with the Queso Bowl.
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