After nine weeks of football, you start to see the slotting occur. There may be some surprises yet, and there is a bunch of losing that will happen before we get to the BCS Championship Game. But at this point, these can be true projections and not just guesses.
Saturday night cleared up a couple of big things. The Big 12 South came into sharp focus with Texas's dominating win. Barring something completely unforeseen (and I don't mean an injury to Colt McCoy; I mean like an asteroid wiping out Austin and all of its inhabitants), Texas will win the Big 12 South. Only slightly less certain is that they will win it with a 12-0 record, crush the crappy team that emerges from the Big 12 North, and play in the BCS Championship Game.
A recap of Week 9 in the Big Ten, where we attempt to make sense of the Iowa game..
Two time zones west, the Pac-10 race also looks much clearer now. Oregon's win gives them, a two game lead over USC, and unless Arizona can work a three way tie with the Ducks and Trojans (possible, though unlikely) at 7-2 in conference, USC's reign has ended in the Pac-10.
Could Iowa bring back the old winged uniforms for a feathered Rose Bowl?
How does this impact the BCS At Large spots? First, unless Texas loses in the Big 12 Championship game, that league is only getting one bid this year. Second, Virginia Tech's head-shaking loss to North Carolina really diminishes the likelihood of two bids from the ACC. 10-2 USC may be in play, especially if Notre Dame loses one more. For now, I see USC missing the BCS for the first time since 2001. And now, to the projections.
Remember the rules.
- These are projections. I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
- The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
- The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
- The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
- For the full rules on BCS selections, look here.
And now, we add the other 23 bowl games...
|Las Vegas will be happy to have the BYU fans every year, thank you.|
|I can only assume that San Diego State's turn around is due to the impressive job that Chuck Long has done as the Asst. to the Traveling Secretary.|
|I suspect that they'll choose Bobby Bowden against his old team over a rematch of last year's game.|
|As a small private school with a tiny (relative) alumni base, BC will always be "underseeded" as a bowl team.|
|Nashville would love this matchup.|
|Ar-kansas versus Kansas. Could be a good game to watch.|
|If C-USA can get a sixth team eligible, they fill the spot that Army can't. It's going to be a tough one for UCF. Duke needs one win to get here.|
|I expect that the Mountain West will send one of its three best teams here to face the Broncos. I also expect that if Boise State goes to the BCS, Idaho will slide in here.|
|With their sixth win, Navy became the first team to lock up their bid.|
|The Holiday Bowl has waited and waited for their chance to get the Trojans in San Diego.|
|If Auburn can get to 8-4 by beating either Georgia or Alabama, I expect that they'll go to the Cotton Bowl. There is also a shot that they could be taken over a second consecutive trip by South Carolina to the Outback.|
|The Gator Bowl is hoping that Notre Dame loses one more game. You don't think that they wouldn't like to start printing "Catholics vs. Convicts" T-Shirts?|
|It is still weird to see Temple in a bowl game.|
|I expect OU to beat the Cowpokes. The Cotton Bowl will gladly take 9-3 Oklahoma over 9-3 Oklahoma State.|
|Great matchup for the C-USA champion.|
|If Iowa State can get that 6th win, I expect them to get a bid somewhere. Right now, they fill a spot that the ACC can't.|