2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 10

Before we look forward, let's look back.  In early February, a certain writer on this very blog made these bold statements:

I still think that 2009 is the start of the return of the Big Ten. For a comparable year, look back to 2000. My guess is that no team goes 8-0 in conference. I also predict that no team finishes with less than 2 losses (and only Ohio State does that). 

I envisioned a league in which Ohio State went 7-1 in conference, and everyone else dropped at least two games. Assuming that Iowa loses in Columbus next week, that's what we'll have.  As for the strength of the league, I'll put the Top 4 of the Big Ten up against anyone else in the country.  Beyond that...not so much.

200911071449533820860-p2_medium

Ummm....Michigan?  Where were you?

Big BCS shakeups this week.  If ever there was a year that two mid-majors go to a BCS bowl, this could be it.  I still think that the powers that be won't have it (Money, people.  It's about money).  We'll do another full projection next week, but for now the BCS and Big Ten Bowls follow after the jump.

Remember the rules.

  1. These are projections.  I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
  2. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.  
  3. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
  4. The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
  5. For the full rules on BCS selections, look here
Bcs_championship_logo2009_sm_medium_medium

 

Alabama_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_old5_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Alabama clinched the SEC West with their win over LSU.  Barring a complete collapse against Auburn and Mississippi State, they also clinched a BCS Bowl Bid, too. A win over Florida gets them here.
Orangebowl_2005_small_medium_medium Georgia_tech_medium_medium_medium Southern_california_medium_medium Left without a good choice for attendance (the choice is USC, TCU, Cincy, or Boise St.), the Orange Bowl goes for sizzle on TV. They're probably hoping that Clemson wins the ACC. The Tigers have the league's best traveling fans.
Fiestabowl_2006_medium_medium Iowa_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_christian_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium It says here that 10-2 Iowa gets selected over 10-2 Penn State.  Goodbye, Notre Dame (as the Gator Bowl rejoices).  I thought more of you than you were.
Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium_medium Florida_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Cincinnati_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Again, this is going to be the SEC Championship loser versus the Big East Champion.  Could be a fun one.
Rosebowl_small_medium_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Oregon_old10_medium_medium 10-2 (7-1) Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl for the first time this decade.  Oregon better be careful.  Arizona and USC are gaining on them.
Capitalonebowl2002_small_medium_medium Penn_state_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Lsu_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium I would LOVE to see this game.
Outbackbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Tennessee_medium_medium Tennessee may have lost their last game this season.  An easy schedule down the stretch makes Tampa a likely destination.
Champssportsbowl_2004_medium_medium Northwestern_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Clemson_medium_medium This spot is open to whatever Big Ten team can get seven wins. Northwestern's upset of Iowa gives them the inside track.
Alamobowl_2007sm_medium_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Oklahoma_medium_medium I suspect that Okie State and Nebraska will go to the Cotton and Holiday Bowls.  I'm betting that the Alamo Bowl will not pass on its first opportunity to bring the Sooners to San Antonio.
Insightbowl2002_small_medium_medium Minnesota_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_am_old1_medium_medium Oh Minnesota.  All you had to do was beat Illinois.  At home.  Sad.  Now you'll need to beat the Hawkeyes in Iowa City in order to move up from here.
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Middle_tennessee_st_medium Central_michigan_medium_medium I hope that the Dallas Football Classic is paying attention to how often the Big Ten fills its sixth post-BCS slot.
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Indiana_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Purdue_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Illinois_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

All of these teams are still mathematically alive for 6 wins and a bowl game.  Michigan needs to win at Wisconsin or versus Ohio State.  Illinois needs to beat Northwestern, Fresno State, and Cincinnati.  Indiana needs to win at Penn State and versus Purdue.  Purdue needs to win versus Michigan State and at Indiana.  If any of these teams were to win six games, they would be above Minnesota in the selection order.  Michigan would go above Michigan State too. I think that all four teams have missed their chances and are sinking deeper into the layers of cheese.  That means that they will On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (now sponsored by Ro*Tel).

Addendum: I, obviously, write these before the Sunday afternoon polls came out.  I was surprised at how far Iowa fell.  Assuming that they lose to Ohio State and beat Minnesota, it will be very close for them to make it back into the Top 14.  If they don't, you can swap Penn State (who should be safely in after two wins against Indiana and Michigan State) for the Hawkeyes.
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