Ten Monday Thoughts on the Big Ten Bowls
by Bama Hawkeye on Dec 7, 2009 9:42 AM CST
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Print1. I am both surprised and disappointed that we see TCU-Boise in the Fiesta Bowl and Iowa-Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. I'm most disappointed because of the "kiddie table" feel that the game has. I feel the same way when a mid-major 12 seed gets pit against a mid-major 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Where's the fun in that? The joy of underdogs is beating the giant. Obviously, I'm not alone in this thought. I also wanted to see Iowa in the Fiesta for personal reasons. For non-selfish reasons, I just don't like the matchup. In legal terms, Dan Wetzel of Yahoo nailed it. TCU v. Boise .... Plessy v. Ferguson.
Son, I was coaching against the triple option when you weren't even a stain on your father's pants.
2. Iowa could be well-suited to stopping Georgia Tech's offense in the Orange Bowl, or Iowa could be in for a pounding. Iowa's defensive coordinator, Norm Parker, is a crusty old codger who has been coordinating defenses long enough to have coached against the triple option when it was not novel to face it on a Saturday. One envisions him walking to a bookcase in his basement, pulling an old binder off the shelf, blowing the dust off of it, and rereading notes from decades gone by. The experience, coupled with Iowa's disciplined defense could be a key for a Hawkeye win. On the other hand, Iowa has been exploited by speed around the end (Iowa will smother the dive). That could result in Josh Nesbit and company going wild.
3. Ohio State is going to beat Oregon. I don't know that it will be close. I am sure that LawBuck will have quite a bit more to say about this in the weeks ahead, but I think Oregon is in for a rude surprise. Ohio State will have the ball for more than 36 minutes, and will wear down the Ducks in the fourth quarter.
4. I think that LSU has to hate drawing Penn State in the Capital One Bowl. LSU has faced two elite defenses (Florida and Alabama) this year. They scored a total of 18 points in those two games. Penn State will be the third, and I don't expect it to go well either. Yes, the Lions' offensive line remains a problem, but the strength of the LSU defense is in the back seven. Penn State should be able to move the ball.
You're playing against Les Miles. Remember that.
5. I can't believe that the Outback Bowl picked Northwestern over Wisconsin. That just doesn't happen. I'm glad it did though.
6. Northwestern should beat Auburn. It's actually a good matchup for them. Northwestern will be facing a style that is familiar to them. Also, Auburn may be the worst of the six SEC teams that ended up tied at 7-5. If Northwestern is ever going to win a bowl game (they're oh-for-the-last sixty+ years). This is the time.
7. Wisconsin has a much better chance of beating Miami than Northwestern would have. The Badgers will need to play disciplined defense, but they can do that. The offense will need to march down the field and eat the clock, but they can do that. If John Clay can keep eating up 4+ yards per carry, I like Wisconsin's chances.
4.5 yards every carry = Badgers win. It can happen.
8. I'm worried about Michigan State. Maybe they rally the troops after the suspensions. Maybe they can "play up." In talent, I don't know that they are that far off from where Texas Tech is, but I don't like the idea of coming into a bowl game on the heels of disciplinary troubles.
9. Congratulations Minnesota! You may have drawn the one BCS-league bowl team that you can beat. Seriously, Hawkeye State, Oops Pow and I joked about this matchup during last week's BHGP podcast. The possibility of a 9-3 final score would be a distinct possibility (if Iowa State wasn't so star-crossed when it comes to the kicking game). The team that comes out and plays competent football will win this one. That's a really low threshold, Brewster.
Use him more. Please!
10. When all is said and done, the Big Ten will not repeat last year's 1-6 performance. Last year, the Big Ten was an underdog in six games (the six they lost). This year, I expect that the Big Ten will be the underdog in five (I'll guess that Penn State and Minnesota will be favored). But, we've got better matchups throughout.
11. My early guess is that the Big Ten goes 5-2, with Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern, and Minnesota giving us the wins. That said, our margin is slim. The Big Ten Bowl Redemption is underway.
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8. I'm worried about Michigan State. Maybe they rally the troops after the suspensions.
I am worried also. Rallying the troops is admirable, but it’s not going to help when the troops are suspended. Now the Big Ten’s worst secondary just got less experienced and less deep.
The key to beating Texas Tech would be to keep that offense off the field; maybe a nice power run game mixed in with some sideline throws to White. Unfortunately, MSU’s run game is 7th best in the B10, with no clear star.
MSU is toast.
The Rivalry, Esq.
"Ricky Stanzi is to interceptions as Journey is to 80s rock ballads...inextricably linked."
Great matchups....
I have to say, I absolutely agree that this year’s matchups are the polar opposite of last year’s — I feel like the Big Ten should be competitive (if not favored) in almost all of these games (MSU being the one exception, although I think I would like them if they hadn’t had the suspensions, to be honest).
My preliminary picks:
OSU over Oregon NU’s defense will be FIERCE in this game, as it has a few more weeks to get healthy — health was NU’s biggest problem all season, particularly on defense, where they started 20 different players including 9 different guys in the secondary.)
- Iowa over GT (Defense and the running game is going to win both BCS matchups)
- PSU over LSU (LSU’s offense has struggled versus good defenses like PSU’s)
- NU over Auburn (NU was hot down the stretch, Auburn was not, and Auburn is weak in the secondary, which means a long day of Kafka picking apart the Tigers…..and an end to NU’s 60 year bowl winless streak. Also -
- Wisconsin over Miami (honestly, I think this could go either way….Clay is going to be tough to stop, and Wisconsin is going to bully Miami up front. I think, in the end, the ability to force UM’s QB to throw picks is going to be the difference….and he threw a lot of picks this year).
- Texas Tech over MSU (the suspensions hurt here, but I actually think this ends up being a LOT closer than people think….and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the better defense win, which would be MSU’s)
- Minnesota over Iowa State (no particular reason on this one, except I think Minny wants it more)
Final tally — Big Ten 6-1.
Weird
No idea why all of that got lined out.
Two minus signs together
I’ve done it before too. Put an asterisk before instead and you’ll get bullet points.
- Example
I’m actually pretty surprised that you would say that Oregon would get worn down by OSU, merely because of time of possession? I would not be surprised in any way if OSU holds the ball for 36 minutes. Hell, Oregon only holds the ball for 27 minutes per game. But they won’t get worn down. They haven’t all season. In fact, Oregon has been the wearing out every team they’ve faced this season due to the pace of their play.
On top of this, a key for OSU controlling the ball will be actually moving the ball, something I’m totally unconvinced they can do. There has been a lot of assumption that Oregon’s defense isn’t really that good. This couldn’t be further from the truth. They give up only 4.6 yards per play on defense (good for 11th in the country) against many strong offensive teams. Now, I wouldn’t say they are as good as OSU, but they’re in the same ballpark. According to football outsiders (I like this method because it adjusts for strength of schedule), OSU places 8th, and Oregon 13th (this was before the Oregon State game).
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
What do you think of the size difference between our O line and your D line?
Ohio State is an average of 43 pounds heavier at each position.
Ohio State
© Michael Brewster (296 lbs)
(RG), Bryant Browning (312 lbs)
(LG) Justin Boren (315 lbs)
(LT) J.B. Shugarts (298 lbs)
(RT) Jim Cordle (297 lbs)
Oregon
(LDT) Brandon Bair (250 lbs)
(RDT) Blake Ferras (290 lbs)
(RDE) Kenny Rowe (230 lbs)
(LDE) Will Tukuafu (272 lbs)
On paper, it seems like Ohio State will be able to blow Oregon off the ball, and that means big movement on the ground.
What’s your take?
The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Jonathan Franz on Dec 7, 2009 11:31 AM CST up reply actions
Two thoughts
1) The Ducks are vulnerable to a mauling, physical ground attack. You need to look no further than the Stanford game to see that a big o-line with a talented running back spells trouble for the Ducks — I grant you that. But with the exception of that game, the d-line has done an admirable job of soaking up blocks, letting our speedy linebackers fly to the ball and make plays (Oregon runs a base 3-4 just so you know). I’ve only seen two OSU games this year, and I definitely don’t consider myself an expert on your team, but from what I’ve seen you don’t tend to line up and crush people in the run game. It’s sort of an Oregon-lite kind of attack with misdirection, cutbacks, and zone blocking. We’ve defended the run MUCH better against schemes like this than against a straight power rush like that of Stanford.
2) You can’t stay committed to the run game if you’re getting scored on every time your defense takes the field. I know that Ohio State is statistically one of the best defensive teams in college football and I in no way intend to denigrate that fact…but OSU hasn’t faced anybody who can do what Oregon can do on offense. You’re proud of your defense, and rightfully so, but we Quackers think that Oregon can hang 40 on literally any defense in the country. And if Masoli and Friends get cooking, even somebody as conservative as Tressel will have to take to the air.
"One of the bright spots of the young season has been rookie point guard Jonny Flynn, whose name sounds like he should be the lead character in a Broadway Musical. "What are you doing here, Jonny Flynn?" "Why I'm here to court trouble, and woo a girl, and build the most fantastical contraption the world has ever seen!" -- Dave, Game 7 Blazers versus Timberwolves preview
by BlazersOrBust on Dec 7, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
Oregon has done an excellent job throughout the whole year not getting blown off the ball, and they have faced a number of offensive lines of comparable size to OSU. They haven’t really had a lot of success in terms of winning that battle, but they have held their own, which is all that is required of them for the Oregon defense to succeed.
The lone exception for rushing defense success would be Stanford, which I feel was due mainly to Stanford’s downfield passing game. When Stanford displayed the ability to beat the Ducks deep, that serious hurt their rushing defense, as the safeties and linebackers had to worry about both the run and the pass.
In short, I seriously doubt that the OSU offensive line will push around the Ducks, and I imagine that that battle will end in a draw.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
Thanks to both of you for thoughtful responses.
From what I’ve seen you don’t tend to line up and crush people in the run game. It’s sort of an Oregon-lite kind of attack with misdirection, cutbacks, and zone blocking.
This perfectly describes the first nine weeks of our season, although, against Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan, Brandon Saine absolutely exploded as a north/south bruiser. In those games we rushed for 228, 229, and 251 yards respectively. I agree with you that Saine is no Toby Gerhart, but I do think the Ohio State running game — particularly the O line play — has hit its stride.
OSU hasn’t faced anybody who can do what Oregon can do on offense.
Oregon is currently 25 nationally in total offense. While we did play Toledo (16th nationally), Wisconsin (34th nationally), and Penn State (36th nationally), I won’t try to argue that they have anywhere near your playmaking ability.
When we talk straight rushing offense, it gets a little more interesting. Oregon is currently 6th nationally in that department. Ohio State played Navy (3rd nationally), Wisconsin (15th nationally), and Michigan (27th nationally).
Although Ohio State positively suffocated Wisconsin, they struggled a bit against the novelty of the Navy and Michigan attacks. Since misdirection is the bedrock of your offense, I’d have to agree that we haven’t done anything that suggests we can completely bottle up the run-spread.
But before you throw the confetti in the air, remember, that we certainly had the lateral talent to run with your offense, and you won’t have the benefit of multiple missed tackles like you did against Oregon State. Jim Heacock is one of the better defensive minds in college football, and I’m confident that with a month to prepare, he’ll give you something you haven’t seen. (Ask USC’s offensive coordinator about the completely new looks OSU showed on the line in this year’s game).
And if nothing else remember that Texas was averaging 43.9 points per game coming into last year’s Fiesta Bowl showdown. Everyone was convinced their quick strike, no-huddle pass attack would positively dismember the Buckeye D. We held them to 3 points in the first half, and 24 overall — just over half of their season average.
Lightening might not strike twice, but I do think you should prepare to put up less points than usual. Which brings me to my final thought.
The lone exception for rushing defense success would be Stanford, which I feel was due mainly to Stanford’s downfield passing game.
You’re absolutely right that this game will come down to how Ohio State’s offense performs through the air. If we do what we did for most of the season, I agree that we’ll have a tough time matching the 25-30 points I expect the Ducks to score.
But if Pryor can keep your D back just a bit with an occasional slant to Posey, Ohio State just might get the 26-31 points it needs to win.
The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Jonathan Franz on Dec 7, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions
I’m not worried about the slants at all. Oregon is going to play against the rush, and against the short passing game.
I think for Pryor and OSU to effectively move the ball, they will have to go down the field. He will have to stretch the Oregon defense vertically. Pryor will have to throw the ball through the air 25+ yards. Oregon has done an exceptional 5.8 yards per pass attempt, despite playing in the Pac-10. Oregon has done a very good job stopping the short passes, and has dared teams to go deep. Only Andrew Luck has been able to take advantage of that.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
The Oregon D-Line has been pretty out-matched in terms of weight almost every game they’ve played. Stanford is the only team who took advantage of it, and, as jtlight posted, they were only able to take advantage of it because they were able to establish an effective mid to long-range passing game.
The other two offenses to really perform well against the Oregon defense (Arizona and Oregon St.) were also both very accurate passing offenses. Alliotti, Oregon’s D-Coord., has shown that he can limit the running game of a team with a marginal passing offense. Pryor has a lower completion percentage than any other quarterback Oregon has faced (WSU excepted). Even granting that Pryor has improved, Oregon is going has shown that it can force offenses to win with a quality midrange passing attack, and tOSU is going to struggle to do that.
A note about the offense: Oregon played 4 or 5 conference games where the opposing defense came into the game with the #1 rushing defense in the conference, and an average ypg allowed of less than 90. After the Oregon game, none of those teams had the #1 rushing defense in the conference and all had a ypg allowed over 110.
Defending maligned chants since 2009
The issue with OSU/Oregon isn't heft or talent.
It’s coaching and creativity. Draw your own conclusions, but I think Kelly would die to have the OSU two-deep.
Mr. Boh Knows ...
TCU and Boise deserve each other
and not in a bad way. Why should they have to play a team from an alleged ‘big boy’ conference, when both teams are higher ranked than Iowa and Georgia Tech? Utah’s ass-whipping of Alabama last year, and Boise beating Oklahoma a few years back helped to change my perception on that.
2. The triple option is a bitch (see OSU v Navy), and Georgia Tech has better personnel than Navy does. You can’t prepare for it unless you run it as your offense, and I see Iowa having problems all day long. I see GT winning that game.
3. Agreed. 1000%
4. I think Penn State wins that game as well.
5. Wisconsin matches up better than Northwestern does against Auburn. I think Auburn wins that game. Agree that the Badgers got jobbed in the selection, but good for Northwestern.
6. I guess we’ll agree to disagree, as I just feel Northwestern would have a better chance against Miami than they do Auburn. Just a gut feeling. Either way, it’s a winnable game for Wisconsin.
7. Michigan State will get crushed.
8. Minnesota will lose 3-0, with a grand total of 7 first downs in the whole damn game. It will be the most unwatchable bowl this season, next to the International Bowl.
7. I think the Big 10 has a great shot at 4-3, outside shot at 5-2, but I just can’t envision any scenario where Minnesota or Michigan State win. Minnesota’s offense is just horrid, and MSU has too many guys on, uh, sabbatical.
"We're used to Favre-a-palooza now. We're engulfed in Favre-a-palooza. It's not even Favre-a-palooza anymore. He's family now."
--Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe, on Brett Favre
Number 9
“The team that comes out and plays competent football will win this one”
I think it’ll be the the least incompetent, winner of the turnover battle wins it. Ugly game. But you better believe I’ll watch it. Hopefully for laughs
It never gets to be easy
Minn-ISU
They ought to rename it the Three Stooges Bowl for this season, because it’s going to be absolute slapstick.
I wish I could say the same for the Alamo Bowl; the only silver lining is that our pass defense is so awful that it should actually neutralize some of the benefit Tech gets from their passing game – it’s not really possible for them to do much better than they normally do against average defenses.
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