2009 Big Ten Football Outlook
by DMAN2303 on Jul 21, 2009 7:58 PM CDT
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Big Ten Conference Outlook for 2009
With college football camps only two weeks away, I wanted to take a look at how the Big Ten will be shaping up this season.
The Favorite: Ohio State
Surprise, surprise. Another year and the same team remains the cream of the crop in the Big Ten. Ohio State had a fairly "regular" year by their standards in 2008. So with the loses of the likes of Beanie Wells, James Laurinaitis, Marcus Freeman, and others, can Ohio State really stay on top? Yes and one big reason is Terrelle Pryor. Pryor showed great development last season with a combined 20 TD’s and only 4 INT’s. He also sported a passer rating above 100 in each regular season game except against Ohio, where he only threw two passes. Look for Pryor’s sophomore season to as much a breakout season as Tim Tebow’s sophomore campaign.
Sure he may not as many touchdowns, as Jim Tressel would rather not see #2 take on linebackers like Tebow, but his impact will be very similar. Sure the absence of Beanie Wells poses the question of whether their run game will be as effective but it will be. Daniel "Boom" Herron and Brandon Saine will hold down the backfield, and with a quarterback that can run by really anyone, I don’t see the Buckeyes being affected too much. Ohio State did lose some key players on their defense, but like any football powerhouse, those voids will be filled very quickly. DE Thaddeus Gibson led the team in sacks last season as a sophomore and should be ready for another big season. Safety Kurt Colman will be the senior leader on defense and will make sure the losses from last year’s team don’t get in their way of another Big 10 title. However, if there is one way that Ohio State doesn’t live up to expectations this season, it will be because of their inexperience on defense.
The Contender: Penn State
Admittedly, these two teams could be flipped, especially since this year’s matchup is in Happy Valley and will more than likely decide who wins the Big Ten. With QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster returning, Penn State’s offense will be solid. Clark had a great season last year taking over the Nittany Lions by throwing for 19 TD’s and only 6 INT’s. You would think that this year would only come with more success, but I am a little hesitant that the losses of WR’s Derrick Williams and Deon Butler could really affect the Nittany Lions’ offense. RB Evan Royster had the third most rushing yards in the Big 10 last season with 1,236, trailing both Shaun Greene and Javon Ringer.
However, with the departure of Greene and Ringer to NFL, Royster looks to be the premiere back in the conference and may make up for the losses at the receiver position. The return of LB Sean Lee, who missed last season due to injury, will definitely add to a continuously solid Penn State defense. The loss of Aaron Maybin and his 12 sacks last season will hurt, in addition to the departure of Anthony Scirrotto, but the Penn State defense should be just fine. With all this being said, I still think that Ohio State is too strong and will prevail over Joe Pa and company.
The Dark Horse: Illinois
Many experts have Michigan State slotted here for a couple of reasons, one being they don’t have Ohio State on their schedule. However, without Javon Ringer carrying the load anymore, I’m not sure Michigan State can be the same team they were last year, let alone better.
Now the Illini on the other hand have nowhere to go but up. The question is how far up after a terrible 2008 season finishing 5-7. The fact is that Illinois could compete for the title, or be middle of the pack, which is really the true definition of a dark horse. Personally, I really like the Illini’s chances. QB Juice Williams is back for his fourth and final season at the helm. Juice showed signs of greatness in 2008 (22 TD’s), the only problem being he was also down right awful at times (16 INT’s).
Another reason for Illinois’ struggles last year was their inability to get WR Arrelious Benn the ball consistantly and more notably, in the end zone. There is no excuse why this good of a wide receiver has only amounted to five scores in two seasons. Look for new Offensive Coordinator Mike Schultz to take the offense to the next level this season and find a way to get a potential All-American WR the ball on a consistent basis. Juice will need to cut down on his mistakes and show the maturity of a four-year starter, but the big question mark is their defense. Their defense is fairly inexperienced, especially at the linebacker position. The losses of LB Brit Miller and Corner Vontae Davis will hurt, but if the defense can find a way to make it happen, Illinois will be a very dangerous team in the Big 10 in 2009.
The Standings:
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Illinois
4. Michigan St
5. Iowa
6. Wisconsin
7. Northwestern
8. Minnesota
9. Michigan
10. Purdue
11. Indiana
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Thanks for taking the time to do a write up.
I agree with a good majority of what you say. A few points I’ll press you on:
1. I think the loss of Chris Wells will impact the Buckeye rush because Daniel Herron isn’t equipped to handle the load on dives. Yes, that could be where Brandon Saine steps up — and I’m optimistic — but it’s important to remember we still have little more than a promising 2007 season and a spring game of exposure to his play. As for Pryor, he can undoubtedly out race any OLB to the sidelines — but I worry about Mike Adams’ struggles at tackle.
Pryor needs a pocket to develop the cohesiveness that is ever so needed in the passing game. His burgeoning ability to throw on the run will help, but it’s going to take more than a few knifed slants over the middle to sell me on this offense. I say, if there is one way that Ohio State doesn’t live up to expectations this season, it will be because of a limp passing effort.
2. There are two reasons Arrelious Benn can’t get into the endzone: 1. He’s a marked man — often courting double coverage, 2. Williams can’t throw the deep ball. As Graham mentioned earlier this week, the Illini need to focus on lower risk passing plays. If that means Benn’s TD stats stay low, so be it.
3. You’re not giving Iowa enough credit. Sure, they have to play at Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin but they’re better than at least two of those teams. Assuming they win two of those four, a 9-3 season isn’t too far off. You can’t tell me that Illinois, who has to play OSU, PSU, and MSU in a row — as well as stack up against Mizzou and Cincy out of conference doesn’t have just as tough/if not tougher of a road to travel.
4. For that matter Minnesota is better than they look on paper too, but your predicted finish is plausible because of the slaughterhouse schedule. The Gophers have to play away at PSU, OSU, and Iowa.
We’ll have our Fall Preview Series up in the next few weeks. In the meantime, thanks for the appetizer.
The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
I agree
You made some very good points. I do agree with you that Iowa is probably a better team than Michigan St and maybe Illinois but the schedule is just too hard to ignore with the Spartans. They get Iowa at home, as well as Penn St, leaving Illinois as their hardest road game. On the side of Illinois, I’m really banking on a breakout year, much like 2007. They are back in kinda that underdog role which I think fits well with them. I think the addition of Mike Schultz as offensive coordinator will really help Juice, as I think Locksley kind of hit a stalemate in progressing him. I think Illinois will get a break with a less talented Missouri team and will have confidence going into “The Big 3” (Ohio St, Penn St, and Mich St) where I think they can without question take one, and I’m guessing two.
I agree totally with what you said about Arrelious. Pretty much all the reason he has only five TD’s is not his fault. I think that this year’s WR corp will really help him out, namely Jarryd Fayson, the transfer from Florida. In a recent interview Arrelious felt very strongly about Fayson’s contribution to this year’s team and also in helping with the double teams.
But yea, thanks for the feedback
michigan
won’t be nearly as bad this year as they were last year. they should be at least in the top 5
top 5?
I find that very hard to believe. Michigan still has no stability at quarterback and will continue to struggle until that changes. Honestly looking at the schedule, I see Michigan winning 3 Big Ten games this season ( Ind, Purdue, and at Wis (maybe). Other than that, home games with Penn St and Ohio St and on the road at Illinois, Mich St, and Iowa look like too much for Michigan. I think they are definitely improving, but they’re not quite there yet.
msu
lost their starting qb and rb. iowa lost shonn greene. michigan finally has a qb that fits rich rod’s scheme. and rich rod always wins 9 games his second season. minnesota and northwestern will not be better than michigan
difference of opinion
yes i know that both Mich St and Iowa had losses on offense. The loss of Ringer and Hoyer are going to be difficult to overcome but I think it can be done. Sure Michigan State doesn’t really have any big name guys but they are solid on defense and I think they will turn out to be ok on offense, especially with the easiest schedule in the Big Ten. Iowa lost Greene but Ricki Stanzi quietly might be the best passer in the conference, plus they also have a good defense. Michigan’s “answer” at quarterback, Tate Forcier, is only a freshman and will more than likely go through growing pains, much like Juice did his freshman year on a rebuilding team. Like I said Michigan is better and can go bowling this year if they take care of buisness in non-conference but I honestly can’t say I think they can win 9. Northwestern is on the rise and don’t get nearly as much credit as they deserve, and like Law Buckeye said, so is Minnesota.
However, I totally agree with the fact that Ohio St and Penn St are the only locks to be at the top and that’s what makes this upcoming season exciting. There are a good number of teams that could make it to the top 5 or be towards the bottom. Were just gonna have to wait and see
Why Wisconsin is Absent From Contention
Da’ Badgers have enough skill at offense to score points, maybe an improved defense against the pass on paper, and enough beef on the D-Line to slow down any runner long enough to catch.
But the real problem is at the top. Beliema (sp) has turned in the worst kind of chicken sxxt coach in Badger history. There were coaches who had far less successful records than Beliema (sp), who were much more competitive, and more innovative. He has a fairly lucrative contract, and AD who “hand picked” him, and he is getting fatter everyday. He is only looking to protect his position. Not exactly what we need to continue the history of the past 15 years. I am terribly concerned that if this coach is successful, even a little bit, we are going to be in for a long road to sub-mediocrity, and will be threaten with being defacto demoted to 1-AA status.
Get rid of the bum now. Find a coach who wants to coach (Schiavo, may be available) with something to play for!
In my mind
I think Beliema has gotten a bad rap. Sure I understand why every Badger fan is upset about last year but think about it. They had no quarterback. PJ Hill was healthy for what, all of three games if that. Travis Beckum was hurt. Things just were’nt going right and they still made it to a bowl game. I mean really Wisconsin is only a year and a half removed from a #5 ranking in the country before they lost at Illinois. Beliema has had the Badgers finishing 2nd, 4th, and then one bad year at 6th in the Big Ten and people are ready to get rid of him? I agree that the Badgers aren’t ready to contend for a Big Ten title again just yet, which is kinda a new thing for Badger nation, but I think they’ll be moving in the right direction.
i'm okay with losing scirrotto
really. i’m fine with it. i think he was overrated, especially in coverage. once we didn’t have justin king forcing teams to avoid certain areas of the field, scirrotto couldn’t key in on playing a limited area and looking for picks. he was horrible in coverage. bad coverage instincts and he wasn’t that fast.
just my opinion after watching 3 years of him.
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