Opening BCS and Big Ten Bowl Projections for the 2010 Season
by Bama Hawkeye on Jan 8, 2010 12:15 AM CST
in Bowl Projections
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PrintWait, isn't it too soon? Not on the internet, baby!
Guess who's back? Back again.
Sure, some teams haven't even finalized their schedule. Yes, there are a number of early-NFL-entry decisions to be made. No doubt I'll have changed my mind before the start of the 2010 season, but here is our starting point.
Before we start, I want to place an emphasis on the RULES FOR 2010.
- The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors. (This isn't new)
- The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Sugar Bowl; 4) Orange Bowl; 5) Fiesta Bowl. (This is new)
- If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will be required to take a non-automatic qualifier. This will only be required of the Rose Bowl the first time it occurs over the next four years. (This is new and huge)
- The Gator Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Insight Bowl this year. It will rotate the other way next year. (This is new)
- For the full rules on BCS selections, look here.
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I think that Nebraska makes the return to national prominence next year. They should be undefeated when Texas rolls into Lincoln in early October. I also think that they'll be undefeated when they face off with Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game. They'll win it this time. As for Ohio State, they will get a nice non-conference win over Miami, and big road wins in Madison and Iowa City. The SEC will whine, but these two undefeated champs will earn their way to Glendale. |
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From the bluest turf on earth to the greenest. The Rose Bowl gets hit with the non-AQ clause in year one of the four year agreement. My guess is that even with a loss to Va. Tech, 11-1 Boise State still finishes as the highest non-AQ (and in the Top 12). That means that the Rose Bowl will have to take them. Oregon is going to be very good again - good enough to get past USC for the second straight year. Do they run the table? I'll say no. 11-1 sounds right, though. |
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It wouldn't surprise me for Oklahoma to be undefeated heading into the Big 12 championship game. Even if not, if they finish 11-2, they'll be the easy pick to replace the Huskers. UConn? Really? They were thisclose last season, losing five games by 15 total points. With West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh all debuting new QBs (and having to travel to Connecticut), I think that this is a Huskie year. The Fiesta has last choice, and gets stuck with the Big East champ. |
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One-loss Alabama will argue that it's a better team than Nebraska and Ohio State. SEC speed, you know. The argument doesn't hold in 2010, as the defending champ's defense (and the conference as a whole) lose too many players to go undefeated and make it to the title game. The SEC versus at-large selection, 10-2 USC? That's something that everyone gets excited about. |
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Florida State's defense will need to improve. I suspect that it will. The offense will be powerful again. Could this be the year that the ACC finally gets the Florida State/Miami title game it's been planning on for 7 years? The Canes have the tougher road. Miami's division (with Miami, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech) is the deeper next year. Georgia emerges from the post-Tebow vacuum as the SEC East champ. They lose to Alabama for the SEC Title, but at 11-2, they get the last at large bid, over 10-2 Iowa and 10-2 Wisconsin. |
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Iowa loses to Ohio State, and they drop another one along the way (maybe at Arizona or Michigan?). It's hard to be too disappointed with 10-2 and the Capital One Bowl, but it does feel like a bit of a let down from the Top 10 preseason ranking. Auburn (not hip pick Arkansas) finishes second in the SEC West at 10-2. The Capital One Bowl selects them over the mess of teams in the SEC East. |
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Wisconsin finishes 10-2, with losses to Ohio State and Iowa. Much like in Iowa City, the year feels slightly disappointing after expectations were ratcheted up so high. Florida isn't going to fall off the map, despite the exodus and confusion there. My guess is that the Gators drop three games. Four tops. |
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Last year, I predicted 8-4 for Michigan and I was off by three games. I'm doing it again. This is the 7th team out of the SEC (two in the BCS, Cap One, Outback, Cotton, Chik-Fil-A), so expect a 7-5 team. We'll say Arkansas in the Ryan Mallett Bowl. |
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Last year I predicted 8-4 for Penn State, and I was off by two games. I'm doing it again, with losses at Alabama, at Iowa, at Ohio State, and versus Michigan. It's not as shocking this year, is it? The Insight now gets the third post-BCS choice of the Big 12 (Cotton, Alamo, Insight). My guess is that the league is sweet to Mizzou until this whole Big Ten expansion talk goes away. |
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The Belt Buckle Bowl is a new addition designed to keep a Big Ten presence in Texas during the bowl season. It's also the first bowl for the Hope-stache and an improving 7-5 Purdue squad. If Robert Griffin stays healthy, Baylor finally gets to a bowl game. I like the chances of it being this one in Houston. |
DALLAS FOOTBALL CLASSIC |
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No logo yet for this new January 1st bowl. It replaces the old Motor City Bowl slot, and will pit the Big Ten against either the Big 12 or a West Division team from Conference USA. 2010 sees a C-USA team. Michigan State also finishes up at 7-5 and gets the last Big Ten bid. Unless June Jones has SMU in the Liberty Bowl (as the C-USA Champion) expect the hometown Mustangs to christen this game. |
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It says here that the 'Cats go 7-5, and get this bid when the ACC can't fill all of its slots. East Carolina is actually a good matchup for a fill in game. |
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Sadly, all 11 Big Ten squads won't make it to bowl games. Those that don't will be "On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (sponsored by Ro*Tel)." Indiana seems destined for a 4 or 5 win season. I just can't find the 6th win for them. Illinois is looking at 2-4 at the halfway point (losing to Mizzou, Ohio State, at Penn State, and at Michigan State). That means they'd need to win their home games against Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota and sneak one road win against Fresno State, Michigan, or Northwestern. Possible? Sure. But would you bet on Ron Zook? Minnesota will be the worst team in the Big Ten. I see 1 Big Ten win for them - and that may be optimistic. |
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What part of UM's defense is supposed to get better?
I just don’t buy them at this point.
"I'm colonel cool! And I'm the captain on this rocket to the stars!"
I think the Seminoles (if the defense improves) will surprise in 2010.
I mean they really have no where to go but up. Ponder is a terror and the running game slowly improved as the season progressed. Virtually the whole offense is returning. I also think the ACC will have 2 teams in BCS games next year. They need to re-align too. It’s kind of lopsided right now. I’m kind of expecting VT (that offensive back field is sick!) to have a strong year. You have GT, UNC and Miami too. The other division has FSU and Clemson. Will Wake come back? Will BC be a steady contender? I guess we’ll see next fall.
I'm high on FSU
I think that the depth of the other division will keep them from having the kind of records necessary to get an at large.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
I like the bold prediction
Since every decision that Swofford makes blows up in the ACC’s face, the championship game will definitely be miami/fsu (they are moving the game to north carolina this year to pump up attendance since miami/fsu hasn’t happened in the 5 years they’ve played the game in fla.)
The only way the acc is going to get a second team in the bcs is if the conference has a team in the championship game and either the loser of the acc championship game or the second place team in one of the divisions is a one loss FSU, Clemson, Va. Tech, or Miami (the only teams that would bring enough fans for the orange bowl to justify taking one of them as a replacement).
Clemson has lost too much talent to do better than 8 or 9 wins next year, FSU’s non conference schedule is surprisingly stout (home games against BYU and Florida, on the road against Oklahoma), and Bamahawk is right on point about the Coastal division teams beating up on each other. Miami’s opening slate is going to grind them down again this year (September road games against the buckeyes and pitt.) and their lack of depth will result in another late season fade for them.
by Joe Hamilton's Chauffeur on Jan 8, 2010 2:48 PM CST up reply actions
Terrelle Pryor only a junior
blech… it already feels like he’s been around since ’02, do we really have to put up with him for 2 more years?
Keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city - that aint legal either, Dude.
by AcrimoniousAngerererer on Jan 8, 2010 8:35 AM CST reply actions
6-0 start for Purdue?
Certainly seems possible if they beat Notre Dame in the opener.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
That
may be possible. Especially since having Robert Marve isn’t like breaking in a brand new QB.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
I am banking on at least 5-1
Western Illinois (one of the worst 1-AA teams. They even lost to Indiana State, which is the definition of awful) Ball State, Toledo, Minnesota, and at Northwestern is hardly daunting before going to Columbus.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
exciting but...
… might be overrated heading into Columbus.
Nothing would make me happier than introducing Notre Dame’s new coach to a big fat loss to start the year. A houston bowl game with Purdue would make me happy.
by PurdueEnginerd on Jan 8, 2010 2:39 PM CST up reply actions
Interesting.
An Ohio State-Nebraska title game would be absolutely nauseating. I have no idea who I’d root for there.
On the surface, picking UConn seems crazy, but they probably have as good a shot as anyone. WVU and Cincy will be doing some rebuilding. I’m not sure what Pitt or Rutgers have coming back.
I’m not sure how I’d feel about Iowa in the CapOne Bowl, but I’ll take a Ferentz v. Chizik coaching match-up…
What happened to the Holiday Bowl and the Big 12? I thought it went Fiesta —> Cotton —> Holiday —> Alamo (?).
I’m slightly appalled by a game as mediocre as the Dallas Football Classic being on New Year’s Day. I’ve been annoyed by the intrusion of garbage bowls into January over the last few years, but at least Jan. 1 has remained a day featuring good teams.
Big junkies come from little junkies.
The Holiday
now picks after the BCS, Cotton, Alamo, and Insight. I don’t know if it’s a money issue, or if someone at the Holiday Bowl was asleep at the switch (I didn’t follow the Big 12/Pac-10 negotiations as closely as I did the Big Ten’s), but that bowl has taken a HUGE hit is prestige with the new alignments.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
Interesting.
The Alamo is now B12 #3 vs. P10 #2… good for prestige, not so sure it’s good for ticket sales. I remain unconvinced that Pac 10 fans are going to travel to San Antonio in droves – let alone in the numbers of many of the BXI teams that went there.
The Holiday is now P10 #3 vs. B12 #5, which seems like basically the Sun Bowl. That’s a sad fate for a previously great bowl. Although this year that might have wound up being USC/Arizona vs. Oklahoma/Texas Tech, which might have been fun.
Big junkies come from little junkies.
Holiday Bowl
Seems to me that this is one bowl that should have, and has had repeated opportunities to, jump up in the prestige rankings and has always failed to do so. Can’t explain why it happens, but everytime it looks like the Holiday is on the verge of being equal to the Cap One as one of the biggest non-BCS bowls, fate gets in its way. Hell, even the Big Ten once tried to bolster the Holiday Bowl way back during the Fry years, we sent the Big XI #2, a 10-1 Iowa, team to a bowl that was clearly beneath the finish (only to see Iowa choke its way to a tie) in hopes of raising the bowl’s stature.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
I'd guess this is temporary
Until San Diego gets a new stadium built. Qualcomm is a dump.
It depends on the teams
First, the Rose Bowl having to take a non-BCS team hurts the Big Ten.
Second, if it’s Kansas State at 10-2 instead of Oklahoma and Stanford at 10-2 instead of USC do they get selected over a second Big Ten team? I seriously doubt it. Having the “right” teams in second place is one of the unspoken factors, yet one of the biggest, about a conference getting two bids.
It’s early. I’ll no doubt have a different set of picks in August. But for right now, I think that the Big Ten will be better, yet unrewarded for it.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Bama Hawkeye on Jan 8, 2010 11:48 AM CST up reply actions
As a Gopher fan...
…it is hard for me to disagree with your projection of a dismal season next year.
We should start out 3-1 in non-conference play (3 easy wins and one loss to USC). But the Big Ten schedule is really tough with all of our winnable games on the road with the exception of Northwestern—which is no gimme either.
If Brewster makes a bowl next season, he deserves the extension. Otherwise, he is done.
Not to bash UM but that D is gonna be brutal
They ranked 8th in pts allowed in the Big Ten and 9th in yards allowed per game.
They lose the top three players from that D in Stevie Brown, Brandon Graham, and Donovan Warren.
They are looking at really be hard pressed to stop any kind of passing attack. losing their top 2 from the secondary along with the one guy they had that could get pressure.
They O is gonna have to go above and beyond next year to win games
"There are no next times when you're competing for big things." - Tom Izzo
Go Spartans
Boise
in the granddaddy. Every fiber of my being recoils from that. Oh well.
I have a hard time imagining a Chizik coached team finishing that high.
It never gets to be easy
Chizik
has a winning record against the Big Ten. Dammit.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
Nebraska?
In the national title game? Really? Is this some sort of elaborate prank? I just don’t see a team that was so offensively inept as Nebraska being so much better on offense next year to overcome the losses it will face on the defense. Will probably win the Big XII North (because hey, someone HAS to), but I can’t see them going undefeated.
Also, will be interesting to see how things shake out with Carroll headed to the Seahawks. If USC gets sanctioned, which I think is coming very soon, then there could be a lot of shake-out in the Pac 10.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Try reading the rules.
above the jump
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
Interesting picks...
“I just don’t see a team that was so offensively inept as Nebraska being so much better on offense next year to overcome the losses it will face on the defense”
Overall you aren’t going to see too many guys from 2009’s squad leaving for graduation before the 2010 season. Very little remained of that 2005 class that was supposed to return Nebraska to the promised land and Pelini redshirted a LOT of guys last year.
Nebraska returns just about all of its starting skill players on offense this year. Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead at RB, Niles Paul and Brandon Kinnie at WR. Most of the offensive line is coming back. It was revealed immediately after the bowl game that QB Zac Lee had had a torn tendon in his elbow since September, and backup Cody Green simply wasn’t game-ready yet. With the loss Quentin Castille to dismissal, along Helu’s shoulder problems and Burkhead’s foot problems, finding a running game has been tough this year. Offensively just about everything that could go wrong did and the team found itself short on experience at multiple positions, and ended up reverting to a grade-school version of Tom Osborne’s old playbook just to hold serve in field position battles until the defense could make something happen.
As for defense, the only real loss on the line is Suh. You have to keep in mind that up until the end of last year, Suh was wasted talent. He stayed around for a second year under the new coaching staff and that’s when the light really came on for him. Bo and Carl Pelini are proven commodities when it comes to teaching technique on the line. Jared Crick has already shown up big for the line a couple times this year (he was tied with Suh for tackles until late in the season), and he’s only a sophomore. The loss at linebacker was a guy who didn’t even secure his starting role until almost October. Corner is going to be an absolutely loaded position this year, as Nebraska had 8 of them on the roster this year and none of them were seniors. The two starting safeties are graduating, but there is plenty of experienced depth behind them due to Pelini having 6-7 defensive backs out there 24/7.
In short, you are right that SOMEBODY has to win the Big 12 north and it may as well be Nebraska by default. Missouri has issues, Iowa State is Iowa State, Kansas is breaking in a new coaching staff, Colorado is a lost cause, and nobody knows how good Kansas State will be this week or next. But the common theme around these parts, among the smart marks and the press (and secretly the coaches as well), which they’ve been saying since before the 2009 season even got started, is that 2010 would be the one where the team shoots for the BCS and beyond. The mix of returning starters on offense plus another year of experience in Pelini’s defense shows – on paper – that the team should be in at least as good a position next year to win the conference and have a shot at the title game, depending on how things play out.
Sorry to make this so long, but I’m bored right now and the idea of Nebraska playing Ohio State got my attention. It’s been over 50 years since the two teams have played (Ohio State won in 1955 and 1956) and it’d be interesting to see how the two teams stack up against each other these days.
I Think I Want To Marry You!
“Minnesota will be the worst team in the Big Ten. I see 1 Big Ten win for them – and that may be optimistic.”
But putting the Corntenders in the BCS title game blows it all………
Nebraska?
They’re going to be very good, but can they beat Texas or Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship? I don’t think so. Bo Pellini has done a great job of restoring the Blackshirts, but with Suh and a couple other guys on defense leaving, I just don’t see them getting over the hump. Couple that to a medicore offense (Bowl game notwithstanding), I see them just falling short of a BCS bowl. But I can see them there in 2011, trying to keep OSU from being a back to back champion. :)
I would replace USC with another Big 10 team, because I think USC is about to undego what I like to call a ‘serious market correction’. Joe McKnight is about to take a pay cut going to the NFL, Pete Carroll is gone, and with Rick Neuheisel recruiting hard in LA/So Cal as well, I think the 2010 USC (and for the next few years) will be a lot closer to the 2009 USC for the near future. They’ll still recruit well, but it just seems that the 5 star guys they’re getting now aren’t as good as the 5 star guys from the early and mid Aughts.
I want to see Michigan go to and win a bowl game. I think it’s critical for the Big 10 for Michigan to return to prominence, but I don’t know about 2010. I can see 5 wins on the schedule (Mass, BG, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue), but that defense can be just brutal at times. And when they seem to play well, Tate Forcier doesn’t.
Notre Dame, under Brian Kelley, goes to the BCS next year. They’ll lose to Pitt and BC, qualifying them for a BCS bowl, replacing UConn.
"We're used to Favre-a-palooza now. We're engulfed in Favre-a-palooza. It's not even Favre-a-palooza anymore. He's family now."
--Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe, on Brett Favre
USC's defense should be
substantially better.
That said, I made this pick 12 hours before the Carroll to Seattle news broke. If he’s gone, I probably don’t put USC in the Sugar Bowl. That spot goes to a Big Ten team instead.
I was on Notre Dame last year. With their offense departing and their defense still suspect (and it’s not like Kelly built a great D at Cincy), I’m not going down that road again.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
I agree on USC's defense,
I made this pick 12 hours before the Carroll to Seattle news broke.
And that’s what happens when you get all motivated and write a cutting edge article before the dust of the current bowl season ends. Try being a slacker, like me. There’s nothing more rewarding than setting low goals and then not meeting them.
"We're used to Favre-a-palooza now. We're engulfed in Favre-a-palooza. It's not even Favre-a-palooza anymore. He's family now."
--Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe, on Brett Favre
hmmm
Nebraska I do not think is there yet, and I do not think USC will be there nor a 2nd pac 10 school. UCONN!! try Pitt
ah pitt pitt pitt
I’ll believe it when I see it. They’ve been tantalizing with that run game, but Bill Stull is gone…
by Graham Filler on Jan 10, 2010 7:22 AM CST up reply actions
Bosie is NOT going to the Rose
V Tech will wipe them all over FedEx field. Boise is remarkably small and slow. Well coached, hell yes. But, that alone will not make up for the de facto road vist to V Tech and I think Oregon State may even take them. If hey lose either game they plummet in rankings because there is no meat on the bone after that.
Also, Auburn is the worst coached team in America behond (sad to say) Illinois and Minnesota. No shot for Auburn…
As for Big Ten…I think that plays out based on injuries, momentum and three players: Pryor, Stanzi, Clay. I am dubious of Wisconsin winning in Iowa and I don’t see any way Iowa loses to Arizona and I think Michigan may be the turmoil team of the year next year. So I am not scared of them (as an Iowa fan). Northwestern always bothers me though.
My two cents.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
that's a great picture of jim tressel and malcom jenkins...
when you say “Guess who’s back? Back again.” — were you implying that Jenkins has discovered he still has eligibility left? that’s a great pick up for the buckeyes! and here i was thinking that jenkins was getting ready to play the cardinals this week in the nfl playoffs!
silly me.
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