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Big Ten Bradley-Terry Projections: Post-Week 6


Previous projections: pre-conference, post-Week 5

Full national rankings: here

MSU's big win over previously-unbeaten Michigan and the complete collapse of Iowa's SOS (every single 1-A they have played so far lost) have shaken things up a bit at the top; upsets in Happy Valley and Evanston have also shuffled the picture at the Motor City cutoff.

Basic Method
Team BT WPct Average wins 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
MSU 0.9550 7.59 64.77% 29.67% 5.12% 0.42% 0.02% 1 in 343k 1 in 84.2M N/A N/A
Ohio St 0.9230 7.07 34.95% 42.13% 18.75% 3.81% 0.35% 0.01% 1 in 1.01M N/A N/A
Michigan 0.8430 4.87 N/A 5.34% 23.56% 35.56% 25.08% 8.86% 1.49% 0.09% N/A
Iowa 0.7740 4.74 0.33% 4.33% 18.94% 35.11% 29.30% 10.51% 1.42% 0.04% N/A
Illinois 0.7320 4.58 N/A 1.39% 15.17% 38.13% 32.26% 11.40% 1.60% 0.05% N/A
Wisconsin 0.7749 4.42 N/A 1.96% 13.67% 31.98% 32.84% 15.77% 3.49% 0.29% N/A
Purdue 0.4994 3.21 1 in 63k 0.07% 1.15% 8.07% 26.80% 40.30% 21.53% 2.07% N/A
Northwestern 0.5745 3.13 N/A 0.05% 1.31% 8.73% 25.43% 35.79% 23.18% 5.49% N/A
Penn St 0.5227 2.22 N/A N/A 0.02% 0.60% 6.98% 29.42% 41.59% 19.68% 1.71%
Indiana 0.4512 1.88 N/A N/A 0.06% 1.00% 6.32% 20.10% 33.91% 28.86% 9.74%
Minnesota 0.1083 0.3 N/A N/A 1 in 1.11B 1 in 3.25M 1 in 29,700 0.15% 2.83% 23.99% 73.04%

 

This projects a 22% chance of two 12-0 teams. MSU's wins over Michigan and Wisconsin are both more valuable than any of OSU's to date; that combined with the slightly lighter finishing schedule (the only difference: OSU has to play Michigan and MSU plays Northwestern) puts MSU theoretically in the driver's seat. Iowa takes a surprisingly big hit just from strength of schedule, with the entire schedule (Arizona, Iowa State, Penn State, Ball State) going 0-for-the-week. At the other end, Purdue and Illinois get big jumps while Penn State and Northwestern fall back to the pack. Purdue's bowl chances jump from 4.5% to 36.1%, Northwestern's shot at 10 wins drops from nearly 53% to less than 1.5%, Penn State's bowl chances drop from 74% to 37%, and Illinois moves from approximately 50% to about 95% to make a bowl. Minnesota's best shot at a win is a 10.9% chance of beating Purdue, followed by a 10% shot at Penn State.

This week (remember, home field is completely ignored):
Arkansas State @ Indiana: Indiana 75% to win
Minnesota @ Purdue: Purdue 89% to win
Illinois @ MSU: MSU 89% to win
Iowa @ Michigan: Michigan 61% to win
OSU @ Wisconsin: OSU 78% to win

Big Ten title simulations (10,000 remainder-of-the-season simulations run):

Champions or co-champions Count
MSU outright 4694
MSU-OSU 3232
OSU outright 1405
Iowa-MSU-OSU 110
Mich-MSU-OSU 76
Mich-MSU 70
Iowa-MSU 68
Iowa outright 53
MSU-Wisc 38
Ill-MSU-OSU 37
MSU-OSU-Wisc 33
Ill-MSU 26
Mich outright 25
Iowa-OSU 19
Mich-OSU 17
Ill-OSU 16
Wisc outright 10
Ill outright 8
Iowa-Mich-MSU-OSU 7
OSU-Wisc, Ill-Iowa-MSU-OSU 6
Ill-MSU-OSU-Wisc 5
Ill-MSU-Wisc 4
Four 3-way or larger ties 3
Ill-Iowa, Iowa-Wisc, two 3-way ties 2
MSU-Pur, NW-OSU, Ill-Wisc, 12 3-way or larger ties 1
MSU outright or shared 8432
OSU outright or shared 4989
Iowa outright or shared 284
Mich outright or shared 211
Ill outright or shared 115
Wisc outright or shared 113
NW shared 4
Pur shared 4
PSU shared 0
Ind shared 0
Minn shared 0

 

Given the percentages for MSU and OSU to go undefeated, it's no surprise that other teams are not likely to even share the title.

Six games still isn't a lot of data when all you have are wins and losses; time to check out the ...

Margin-Aware Method

Team BT WPct Average wins 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
Ohio St 0.9859 7.71 73.13% 24.49% 2.29% 0.08% 1 in 92,700 1 in 20M 1 in 17.1B N/A N/A
MSU 0.9544 7.31 43.83% 44.49% 10.82% 0.83% 0.03% 1 in 300k 1 in 82.9M N/A N/A
Iowa 0.9360 6.07 4.03% 27.56% 43.77% 20.54% 3.82% 0.28% 1 in 12,800 1 in 2.09M N/A
Illinois 0.8155 5.28 N/A 5.89% 35.90% 40.89% 14.93% 2.25% 0.14% 1 in 42,800 N/A
Wisconsin 0.7825 4.25 N/A 0.28% 6.96% 32.71% 40.47% 16.70% 2.73% 0.15% N/A
Michigan 0.7892 3.93 N/A 0.18% 4.40% 23.01% 39.61% 26.39% 6.02% 0.40% N/A
Purdue 0.3042 2.43 1 in 31M 1 in 131k 0.05% 0.93% 8.44% 33.61% 46.43% 10.55% N/A
Northwestern 0.4296 2.31 N/A 1 in 114k 0.05% 1.06% 8.55% 29.67% 41.22% 19.43% N/A
Indiana 0.4834 2.19 N/A N/A 0.04% 1.11% 8.72% 27.75% 36.97% 21.16% 4.25%
Penn St 0.4701 2.15 N/A N/A 1 in 44,300 0.25% 5.67% 28.55% 42.19% 21.16% 2.19%
Minnesota 0.1091 0.38 N/A N/A 1 in 16.5B 1 in 18.2M 1 in 72,900 0.13% 3.78% 30.36% 65.74%

 

Here the probability of dueling 12-0s is 32%. Iowa isn't hurt as severely (partly because the loss was close and the wins have not been), OSU overtakes MSU for the driver's seat, and with the scores factored in Purdue and Northwestern look decidedly weaker. The margin-aware standings show four clear tiers: OSU-MSU-Iowa (with OSU a bit ahead of MSU, and Iowa a step behind the other two due to the loss, and significantly lower in the projection from having to play both while OSU and MSU don't beat each other up), Illinois-Wisconsin-Michigan (with Illinois having a better shot thanks to having only one game remaining against the top trio), Purdue-Northwestern-Indiana-Penn State (Purdue up as high as they are mostly on the strength of having a win in the books already and another likely to come against Minnesota), and Minnesota in a class of their own. Illinois goes from about 68% to reach a bowl to >99%, Purdue has an outside shot at 9.5% (which is nothing special, but four times as large as last week), Northwestern has about a 1 in 2000 shot at 10 wins (and nearly a 20% chance of losing out to fall to 5-7 and missing a bowl altogether!), and Penn State's bowl chances have dropped to about 34.5% from nearly 80%.

This week:
Arkansas State @ Indiana: Indiana -12.5, 88% to win
Minnesota @ Purdue: Purdue -8, 78% to win
Illinois @ MSU: MSU -9.5, 83% to win
Iowa @ Michigan: Iowa -8.5, 80% to win
OSU @ Wisconsin: OSU -18.5, 95% to win

Conference title simulations:

Champions or co-champions Count
OSU outright 4209
MSU-OSU 3472
MSU outright 1190
Iowa outright 438
Iowa-MSU-OSU 393
Iowa-OSU 93
Ill-MSU-OSU 59
Iowa-MSU 43
Ill-Iowa-OSU 28
Ill-Iowa-MSU-OSU 20
Ill-OSU 18
Mich-MSU-OSU 10
MSU-OSU-Wisc 9
Ill-MSU 4
Ill-Iowa-MSU 3
MSU-Wisc 2
Mich outright, Ill outright, Mich-OSU, Ill-Iowa, 5 3-way or larger ties 1
OSU outright or shared 8316
MSU outright or shared 5209
Iowa outright or shared 1023
Ill outright or shared 137
Wisc shared 15
Mich outright or shared 13
NW shared 0
Pur shared 0
PSU shared 0
Ind shared 0
Minn shared 0

 

Much like the basic method, the chances of OSU or MSU going unbeaten make it unlikely anyone else will share in the title; Iowa has by far the best chance (and a better chance here than in the basic system).

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