Honest Opinion: Iowa vs. Michigan

by Gookin on Oct 11, 2010 7:24 PM CDT

Here is my honest opinion on the Iowa/Michigan game, and yes, I'm expecting Michigan-fan Hell to break loose (although it shouldn't). I don't see any possible way the Hawkeyes could lose this game. Yes, Michigan has Heisman Trophy winner Denard Robinson, but they proved against Michigan State that he is ALL they have considering their defense is arguably the worst defense in college football. The things that will decide this game are pretty simple:

- Iowa's run defense is 2nd in the nation. Michigan State's is 25th. Iowa should have no trouble holding Denard under 100 yds. like MSU did. Adding to that, the Hawkeyes haven't allowed a rushing touchdown in 135 rushing attempts yet this season . They have historically been very very very good at keeping opponents out of the endzone via the run, with the current streak of 135 attempts without a touchdown being only the third longest Hawkeye streak since 2007.

- Michigan's secondary is 6 yds/game away from being the worst passing defense in the nation. Going against Ricky Stanzi, the 3rd most efficient quarterback in college football, will definitely be a challenge for the young and injured Wolverine secondary. (On a side note, although Stanzi comes nowhere near Denard in the running game, their passing numbers are disturbingly similar, with Stanzi not-surprisingly having the upper hand in the passing game, but not by much. Stanzi is just .4% more accurate than Denard on 4 less pass attempts. Stanzi has just 3 yards more passing than Denard and has 2 more TDs.)

- Iowa's scoring defense in 1st in the nation. Although Michigan averages over 37 points a game, the defenses they have faced are not impressive whatsoever. Not including Michigan State, the defenses Michigan has faced allow 27.9 points a game. If the defenses Michigan had faced were one team, they would be good enough to be 82nd in the country for points allowed, sandwiched between two defensive dynasties in Western Michigan and Ball State. No wonder Michigan can score. And to make matters worse, Michigan State held them to 17 points; they average giving up 18.3 a game. Michigan wasn't even the toughest offensive team they had seen.

****UPDATE****

- Along with Iowa's run defense being better than Michigan State's run defense, I found that Iowa's pass defense is 28th in the nation, allowing just less than 180 yds/game; significantly better than Michigan State's 77th position with over 225 yds/game. Just thought it was interesting that Iowa's defense is statistically much more well-rounded than Michigan State's.

****

Alright, I'm done putting random facts out there that technically have no indicator of how the game will turn out. But it gives me comfort that the Hawks really don't have much to worry about (statistically), and that's the only reason I can sleep at night.

Poll

Who will win in Ann Arbor?

#15 Iowa Hawkeyes

86 votes

Michigan Wolverines

13 votes

99 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 37 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

I don’t see any possible way the Hawkeyes could lose this game

Me either.

There are several good points here. The best is that this will easily be the class of the defensive units that Robinson has faced this season.

"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway

by SubLime on Oct 11, 2010 8:04 PM CDT reply actions

There are ways Iowa could lose.

If Michigan decides to wear white at home instead of blue, they can take advantage of Stanzi’s incredible tendency to throw touchdowns to the guys in white. But if Iowa avoids the footgun, I think they win handily.

by SpartanDan on Oct 11, 2010 8:25 PM CDT reply actions

+1

As a Hawkeye fan and Ricky Stanzi supporter, it’s hard to take those jokes, but after throwing 4 pick-sixes last year and one this year (which wasn’t actually his fault, but it’s happened so many times that it has become a joke) so I can’t be too bitter about it. Considering he has thrown only 2 interceptions this year compared to 15 last year, I am happy. ESPN projects 5 interceptions on the year for him which makes it tolerable, and by my own calculations, if the 5 interceptions hold up, he should only have 2 pick-sixes this year!!! AND IT’S A NEW RECORD!!

"There is nothing better than being American. If you don't love it, leave it. U.S.A. #1"- Ricky Stanzi, America's Quarterback

by Gookin on Oct 11, 2010 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions

I think the team wearing the black helmets will win.

by TarHeelHawk on Oct 11, 2010 8:52 PM CDT reply actions

This game is going to kill one team's MNC chances.

Of course, one team was dead in the water after last week.

The last time the Hawkeyes won in Ann Arbor was in the 2002 season. Brad Banks forever, huh?

Fake Adam Weber after a 41-23 loss to Wisconsin made him 0-4 against the Badgers in his career: "I don't even want to play football anymore."
No longer using Yahoo! Sports for anything besides stat checking since 9/29/2010...

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 11, 2010 9:54 PM CDT reply actions

Oh God

we’re 0-2 since then.

The HORROR!

Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa

by Not Marv Cook on Oct 12, 2010 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions

10,000 comments?

Goodness.

Believe me, Michigan Stadium is fickle. Do NOT fall asleep with a 3 score advantage. It’ll pwn you, and your season will go down the drain…metaphorically speaking.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 12, 2010 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions

What a meaningless "stat".

‘04 30-17 to Michigan (9-3) in Drew Tate’s first conference road game ever.
’06 20-6 to Michigan (11-2) by a 6-7 Iowa team.

I don’t know that a single trend or useful bit of information can be garnered from your comment. Half-assed analysis forever, huh?

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Oct 13, 2010 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions

facepalm

Really? That’s all you drew from it? I’m trying to say that no team has really been successful in Ann Arbor (unless you count of late).

Iowa has to buck that trend and keep Michigan’s home losing streak in Big Ten games rolling.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 13, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions

“Facepalm” is insinuating that it’s been an eternity since Iowa has won in Ann Arbor due to repeated failed attempts instead of due to the infrequency of the meetings as of late.

I’m trying to say that no team has really been successful in Ann Arbor (unless you count of late).

Yeah, that’s actually nothing close to what you were saying. You may have been thinking it or backtracking once you realized that there wasn’t anything to that effect in your post, but nothing in the preceding text alludes to that point.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Oct 13, 2010 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Sorry.

I made a mistake there…

So…care to tell me how Carr fared in Kinnick Stadium?

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 13, 2010 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions

Now I know those stats are meaningless now

but once Ferentz got his team off the ground (the first years of his tenure when he had to get through the deadweight Fry left behind) he competed with Carr more than any coach other than Jim Tressel.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 13, 2010 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes, change the subject.

At no point did I mention an Iowa “dominance” or even moderate success against Michigan. I’m pointing out that your original statement was silly/lazy analysis because it points to a total of two games in an 8 year span as “evidence” and that you should take more time to think about what you write rather than comment as fast as you can all over this site.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Oct 13, 2010 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Right, I should.

My mistake, again.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 13, 2010 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions

I won't be quite as harsh as Mr. McCann't..

and I am just guessing there might be some bad blood between you two, but I would have to agree that the Big House record is really pointless.
- It’s not the same Big House as it was back then (much quieter)
- It’s not the same Lloyd Carr they had back then (RR is 0-1 against Iowa so far)
- It’s not the same Michigan from the previous two losses at the Big House (27-10, 2 Rose Bowls, 3 bowls total : since then 17-20, 1 bowl game)
- It’s not the same Iowa from the previous two losses at the Big House (23-14; 1st losing season since 2000, 1-2 bowl record : since then 26-12; BCS Bowl, 2-0 bowl record)

It’s very very tough to argue that the Big House is a reason to worry with those stats.

"There is nothing better than being American. If you don't love it, leave it. U.S.A. #1"- Ricky Stanzi, America's Quarterback

by Gookin on Oct 13, 2010 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Still...

Our season was sunk after the second half kickoff of our game in 08. The epic collapse that ensued put the 2004 Badgers and 99 Nittany Lions to shame.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 13, 2010 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions

I wouldn't blame the 'collapse' on Michigan.

If you call ONE bad half of football (and us Iowans know a bad half of football, see: Arizona 2010) detrimental to a season, then those players must REALLY be down on themselves. It’s tough for me to believe Wisconsin’s 7-6 season was attributed to a bad half of football in Ann Arbor. Yeah, they went on a losing streak after that but think about who they played right after Michigan: Rose Bowling Penn State and another BCS Bowling Ohio State. Then they lost to 2 strong 9-4 teams in Iowa and Michigan State. I don’t see how you can connect ‘bad half of football’ with ‘collapse of a football team’.

"There is nothing better than being American. If you don't love it, leave it. U.S.A. #1"- Ricky Stanzi, America's Quarterback

by Gookin on Oct 14, 2010 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions

How about bad half of football

connecting with collapse of a terrible football team?

The 2008 Badgers somehow concealed one of the worst offseasons in Big Ten history. No QB until practically opening day, that QB getting exposed as worse-than-Nick Sheridan-terrible down the stretch run, and a number of injuries on the offensive and defensive lines (hint, someone broke his leg).

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 14, 2010 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions

So therefore...

Your claim of The Big House being a big threat is irrelevant. If the worst Wisconsin team in recent memory had a bad half and still only loses by 2 points there, wouldn’t that just prove the opposite?

"There is nothing better than being American. If you don't love it, leave it. U.S.A. #1"- Ricky Stanzi, America's Quarterback

by Gookin on Oct 14, 2010 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions

If not for the fact that one of the best Wisconsin teams in recent memory

hadn’t gotten shot down on that cursed field in 2006, I’d agree.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 14, 2010 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions

Bottom line

Falling asleep on any game in the Big House is a BAD idea unless you’re an Ohio State fan.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 14, 2010 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions

So the question is do you really think Iowa will fall asleep at the Big House?

Kirk Ferentz is known to put more focus into his players than about any coach in the nation.

"There is nothing better than being American. If you don't love it, leave it. U.S.A. #1"- Ricky Stanzi, America's Quarterback

by Gookin on Oct 14, 2010 8:25 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't think so.

If anything this game could be Iowa 28-17. They’ll still hold Robinson back (Clayborn > Michigan’s entire OL) but they’ll give up some points. Just not enough that Michigan feels good about the loss at all.

I think Ballard and Klug could have a field day inside. DJK and McNutt will have their way with Michigan’s brand-new invisible secondary, but Stanzi keeping the ball OUT of the hands of Michigan defenders is paramount.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 14, 2010 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions

We agree on something.

I also think the strength of the whole defensive line is what is going to tear the Michigan O-line apart. But there is no doubt, somehow, through the air or on the ground Denard will be successful. It may not be Heisman numbers but he’s too good of a player to be completely shut down. Iowa could possibly throw for 300+ if they get a solid passing game open. Stanzi could finally have Heisman-worthy numbers for his already extremely consistent statistics.

"There is nothing better than being American. If you don't love it, leave it. U.S.A. #1"- Ricky Stanzi, America's Quarterback

by Gookin on Oct 14, 2010 9:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Ballard + Clayborn + Klug is unreal.

I think Robinson could have a few moments where he’s thinking “I have a man, he’ll be open in just a second!” And then he waits, Ballard destroys him, and the ball flies about a mile upwards for a Clayborn INT.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 14, 2010 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Iowa should be a solid favorite in this game...

I see Iowa by 7
But, Michigan is cornered and dangerous. If Denard doesn’t throw 3 picks like he did against MSU, they are going to score around 26-28 point. Can Iowa put 30 on the board? It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the wolverines pull off the upset.

I’d personally love to see an interception fiesta by Stanzi and Robinson

by Spartan D on Oct 12, 2010 2:12 PM CDT reply actions

This game has to be somewhat terrifying.

Iowa benefited from Penn State’s offensive futility (especially on 3rd downs) and hasn’t won in the Big House in an age. Their best team ever won there (2002) but their last few matchups against Lloyd were not close at all.

Last year was dangerously close; a pick 6 made it so, but its still scary that Iowa struggled to contain Michigan’s offense in a home game then. I don’t know. If Michigan puts together the defensive willpower they had against MSU for the 1st minutes or so for an entire game, they could get rolling early.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 12, 2010 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions

The only problems I have with that logic..

- Yeah, Iowa is on a 2 game losing streak in the Big House, but this isn’t about the Big House. The last 2 times Iowa played Michigan at the Big House, Michigan went a combined 20-5 and 2 Rose Bowls in those years. The last 3 years? Different story.

Actually, think about this:

- Michigan starts off the year 4-1, going to play Iowa coming off a loss to Michigan State. Everyone thought they would have a solid year after clobbering non-conference opponents and beating a VERY overrated Notre Dame team. They average over 30 points a game, yet struggle mightily on defense.

And I’m not talking about this year. That was last year’s Michigan coming into Iowa City. This year’s Michigan has an improved offense but even worse defense. Rich Rod is brewing a recipe for disaster here.

"There is nothing better than being American. If you don't love it, leave it. U.S.A. #1"- Ricky Stanzi, America's Quarterback

by Gookin on Oct 12, 2010 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Haha.. I don't know if you will see too many interceptions in this game.

Ricky Stanzi has become one of the most accurate and efficient passers in college football and Michigan’s secondary is, literally, 119th out of 120 in the nation. And unless Robinson is completely forced to go to the air, I don’t see more than 2 interceptions out of him. I don’t think he would throw back-to-back triple-interception games.

"There is nothing better than being American. If you don't love it, leave it. U.S.A. #1"- Ricky Stanzi, America's Quarterback

by Gookin on Oct 12, 2010 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Clayborn is going to force Robinson to go to the air.

Whether he comes back down is another story entirely…

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 12, 2010 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions

Let me fix this for you.

Clayborn is going to ~~force~~ throw Robinson ~~to go to~~ into the air.
Whether he comes back down is another story entirely…

"You don't become a Hawkeye fan, You're born with Black and Gold in your veins." - Me

by BStylin Hawkye on Oct 12, 2010 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions

I expect this to happen...

Only with Denard instead of Sage.

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 12, 2010 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions

That looks about right.

"You don't become a Hawkeye fan, You're born with Black and Gold in your veins." - Me

by BStylin Hawkye on Oct 13, 2010 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Robinson is so much smaller than Sage that

he might just go spinning out of Michigan Stadium altogether…

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 13, 2010 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions

+1 for the 3 comments above. Possibly a +2

"There is nothing better than being American. If you don't love it, leave it. U.S.A. #1"- Ricky Stanzi, America's Quarterback

by Gookin on Oct 12, 2010 4:49 PM CDT reply actions

More Fun With Numbers

Iowa has given up 44 total points this year The first team defense? Only 23. They’ve held two opponents scoreless, 2 others to just one score.

Iowa State’s TD came in garbage time vs. the JV squad, 14 of Arizona’s points were from offense & special teams.

Michigan has seen their opponents score 161. Granted, that is one additional game, so if we take away the high score of UMass’s 37, they have 124. There’s no way I’m going to dig up how many of those were vs. the starting defense but think about that. That’s an 80 point difference

"If you need a rah-rah speech at halftime, you’re playing the wrong sport." - Pat Angerer

by Flakbait on Oct 12, 2010 5:21 PM CDT reply actions