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Big Ten Bradley-Terry Projections: Post-Week 7


Previous projections: pre-conference, post-Week 5, post-Week 6

Full national rankings: here

So much for the possibility of dueling 12-0s. Both rankings now see a definite favorite, with MSU having only one major hurdle left to clear. The bottom is left mostly unaffected as PSU and NW took the week off, though in the margin-aware projections Indiana takes a hit from squeaking past a Sun Belt team.

Basic Method

Team BT WPct Average wins 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
MSU 0.9687 7.74 76.06% 21.99% 1.88% 0.07% 1 in 111k 1 in 42M N/A N/A N/A
Wisconsin 0.8928 5.96 N/A 29.33% 43.10% 22.14% 4.93% 0.49% 0.02% N/A N/A
Ohio St 0.8578 5.84 N/A 23.59% 43.67% 26.29% 5.95% 0.49% 1 in 14,500 N/A N/A
Iowa 0.8422 5.64 1.80% 16.09% 38.16% 33.12% 9.83% 0.98% 0.02% N/A N/A
Illinois 0.7013 4.4 N/A N/A 11.94% 35.64% 35.21% 14.70% 2.43% 0.08% N/A
Michigan 0.7816 3.82 N/A N/A 4.00% 21.08% 37.78% 27.69% 8.53% 0.92% N/A
Purdue 0.5132 3.37 1 in 47,900 0.10% 1.54% 9.91% 30.04% 40.38% 18.03% N/A N/A
Northwestern 0.5764 2.91 N/A 0.01% 0.53% 5.29% 21.34% 37.41% 28.02% 7.40% N/A
Penn St 0.5217 2.32 N/A N/A 0.03% 1.06% 9.44% 30.85% 39.27% 17.95% 1.40%
Indiana 0.4760 1.84 N/A N/A 0.03% 0.72% 5.57% 19.69% 34.65% 29.57% 9.76%
Minnesota 0.0959 0.17 N/A N/A N/A 1 in 227M 1 in 526k 0.02% 0.90% 15.35% 83.73%

 

One potential issue with using these rankings predictively is that anyone who's unbeaten is almost certain to be far ahead of anyone who isn't (it takes a strength of schedule three times as good to make up for one loss). I don't think MSU's chances are as good as this says, but it should be noted that four of the remaining five games are against the bottom five; barring a major letdown Iowa is the only serious threat ahead.

There is still a possibility of two 8-0 teams in conference, but it's Iowa and Purdue, and the chances of this happening are about 1 in 2,000,000. Iowa has a rough schedule ahead, as they still have to play all three teams ranked ahead of them (all at home, however). Illinois is done with the teams at the top (they don't face Iowa or Wisconsin, and have already played OSU and MSU), leading to their projection ahead of Michigan.

This week's games (home field not factored in):
Penn State @ Minnesota: PSU 91% to win
Indiana @ Illinois: Illinois 72% to win
Purdue @ Ohio State: Ohio State 85% to win
Michigan State @ Northwestern: Michigan State 96% to win
Wisconsin @ Iowa: Wisconsin 61% to win

Bowl chances (for teams that aren't already eligible):

Iowa about 1 in 5,000 to miss out
Illinois about 1 in 14 to miss out
Michigan about 1 in 110 to miss out
Purdue about 3 in 7 to make it
Northwestern about 1 in 14 to miss out
Penn State about 3 in 7 to make it
Indiana about 3 in 5 to make it
Minnesota 1 in 227,000,000 to make it

Conference titles:

Champions or co-champions Count
MSU outright 8148
MSU-Wisc 392
Iowa-MSU 368
MSU-OSU 308
Iowa outright 241
MSU-OSU-Wisc 176
Iowa-MSU-Wisc 136
Iowa-MSU-OSU 93
OSU outright 29
Wisc outright 22
Iowa-Wisc, OSU-Wisc 18
Iowa-MSU-OSU-Wisc 10
Iowa-OSU 9
Iowa-Mich-MSU-OSU 5
Iowa-Mich-MSU-OSU-Wisc 4
Pur outright, NW outright, 5 3-way or larger ties 2
MSU-Pur, 8 3-way or larger ties 1
MSU outright or shared 9659
Iowa outright or shared 892
Wisc outright or shared 786
OSU outright or shared 663
Mich shared 14
Pur outright or shared 9
Ill shared 7
NW outright (no shared) 2
PSU shared 0
Ind shared 0
Minn shared 0

 

When one team is rated as having a 76% chance of going unbeaten, it's no shock that they are also rated as a massive favorite to win the outright title.

Margin-Aware Method

Team BT WPct Average wins 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
MSU 0.9765 7.66 67.74% 30.76% 1.47% 0.03% 1 in 584k 1 in 345M N/A N/A N/A
Ohio St 0.9504 6.31 N/A 42.30% 47.40% 9.75% 0.55% 0.01% 1 in 2.47M N/A N/A
Iowa 0.9436 6.3 7.69% 33.18% 41.44% 16.49% 1.17% 0.03% 1 in 835k N/A N/A
Wisconsin 0.9099 5.96 N/A 23.71% 51.41% 21.81% 2.91% 0.16% 1 in 34,000 N/A N/A
Illinois 0.7318 4.86 N/A N/A 23.56% 45.54% 24.82% 5.56% 0.51% 0.01% N/A
Michigan 0.7680 3.61 N/A N/A 1.38% 13.93% 39.94% 34.52% 9.44% 0.79% N/A
Purdue 0.3638 2.91 1 in 3.75M 1 in 27,700 0.15% 2.61% 17.79% 47.25% 32.19% N/A N/A
Northwestern 0.4148 2.36 N/A 1 in 408k 0.03% 0.76% 8.62% 32.90% 41.43% 16.26% N/A
Penn St 0.4306 2.2 N/A N/A 1 in 30,800 0.28% 6.16% 30.43% 41.80% 19.38% 1.94%
Indiana 0.3673 1.65 N/A N/A 1 in 31,700 0.17% 2.84% 16.02% 35.52% 33.81% 11.63%
Minnesota 0.0936 0.17 N/A N/A N/A 1 in 2.8B 1 in 3.57M 1 in 14,300 0.64% 15.75% 83.60%

 

The one-loss teams (OSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa) aren't dinged quite as heavily here, making this a little tighter race. On the other hand, the conference's third tier of Purdue, Northwestern, PSU, and Indiana looks considerably worse than according to the basic ratings; Indiana in particular took a nose-dive this week for beating #96 Arkansas State by just two points.

This week's games (home field not factored in):
Penn State @ Minnesota: PSU -12.5, 88% to win
Indiana @ Illinois: Illinois -9.5, 82% to win
Purdue @ Ohio State: Ohio State -22, 97% to win
Michigan State @ Northwestern: Michigan State -25, 98% to win
Wisconsin @ Iowa: Iowa -3, 62% to win

Bowl chances (for teams that aren't already eligible):

Iowa 1 in 835,000 to miss out
Illinois about 1 in 45 to miss out
Michigan about 1 in 125 to miss out
Purdue about 1 in 5 to make it
Northwestern about 5 in 6 to make it
Penn State about 4 in 11 to make it
Indiana about 6 in 11 to make it
Minnesota 1 in 2,800,000,000 to make it

Conference titles:

Champions or co-champions Count
MSU outright 6938
Iowa outright 799
Iowa-MSU-OSU 668
Iowa-MSU 515
MSU-OSU 332
MSU-OSU-Wisc 295
Iowa-MSU-Wisc 258
MSU-Wisc 123
Iowa-OSU 23
OSU-Wisc 16
OSU outright 15
Iowa-Wisc 12
Wisc outright, Iowa-MSU-OSU-Wisc 2
MSU-OSU-Pur, Iowa-Mich-MSU-OSU-Wisc 1
MSU outright or shared 9133
Iowa outright or shared 2278
OSU outright or shared 1353
Wisc outright or shared 709
Mich shared 1
Pur shared 1
Ill shared 0
NW shared 0
PSU shared 0
Ind shared 0
Minn shared 0

 

As with the basic ratings, when there's a team that's a 2:1 favorite to win out by the numbers, it's no surprise that they're heavily favored to get the title outright or figure in any ties. Iowa has the advantage of controlling their destiny, as the other three major contenders have to go to Iowa City.

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