The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 8
by Jonathan Franz on Oct 22, 2010 9:21 AM CDT
in Obligatory Predictions Competition
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This is a key week, and it just so happens to present one of the more challenging matchups of the season. Flip a coin, and have your picks in by 11:00 a.m. EST tomorrow.
1. PENN STATE at MINNESOTA, 12:00 p.m. ESPN U (10/23)
GRAHAM predicts PENN STATE
I'm going to pick Minnesota here. Just kidding. I want to...and there is even some logic that says to, namely the fact that PSU has no offense, Minnesota just lost Tim Brewster, and it's a home game. However. Mini finds ways to lose games, they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, they self-mutilate, etc, etc. Penn State wins on the road.
JON predicts PENN STATE
The Nittany Lion organization was embarrassed by a home loss to Illinois two weeks ago, and I suspect they've taken advantage of a bye week to make the necessary adjustments. There's no way they drop to the worst team in the Big Ten.
Odds are...Penn State - 9.5
Big Ten Portal* says "Penn State is only 1-4 ATS this season, and has gone Under 4 out of 5 games. Siince 1999 Joe Paterno is 3-4 ATS vs Minnesota. Minnesota has gone Over in every Big Ten game at TCF Stadium since it opened last year (5/0)."
2. No. 7 MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN, 12:00 p.m. ESPN (10/23)
GRAHAM predicts MICHIGAN STATE
The Spartans are a complete team. Enough said. Running the ball doesn't get wiped away on the road, especially at the friendly confines of Ryan Field. And the Wildcats are, across the board, not made for getting smashed in the mouth the entire game. Which is exactly what MSU will do. Sparty's dream season continues.
JON predicts MICHIGAN STATE
Just how good is this Michigan State defense? Consider this: they surrendered 11 points less to Michigan than Iowa's defense -- a unit widely thought to be among the league's elite. I believe in the balance and discipline Mark Dantonio's squad has shown, and they should have no trouble escaping from Evanston with a W. Unless, that is, they get caught looking ahead to Iowa City.
Odds are...Michigan State - 8
Big Ten Portal says "Pat Fitzgerald is 2-1 ATS vs Mark Dantonio and 1-2 Straight Up. He has only gone 7-10 Straight Up and ATS in Big Ten home games during his tenure at Northwestern. The last matchup at Ryan Field happened in 2008, with a similar line at MSU -3, and the Spartans won 37-20."
3. No. 13 WISCONSIN at No. 15 IOWA, 3:30 p.m. ABC (10/23)
GRAHAM predicts IOWA
I envision...John Clay being wrangled down in the backfield, JJ Watt juuust missing sacking Ricky Stanzi while he zips a ball to DJK for a touchdown, Scott Tolzien seeing that vaunted Hawkeye shell defense all game after the run game is slowed early. It's Iowa in a burner at home. KEY WORD: HOME...I picked Wisconsin on the road v. MSU, wrong. I picked OSU on the road v. Wisky, wrong. Time to be conservative...and smart.
JON predicts IOWA
I received the following text from Graham last night: "took 40 mins to pick wisky iowa." I wasn't surprised. There's no question that if the Badgers play like they did last week against Ohio State they'll be unstoppable. But that's a big if. Bret Bielema swears that his team has finally bought into the system, but they've still only played two complete games this season. I'm not picking Iowa because Ricky Stanzi has only thrown two interceptions all year, or because Adrian Clayborn is one of the few players in the country that might have the skills to swim past Gabe Carimi. I'm picking Iowa because the game is at Kinnick, and I just don't think the Badgers can get it up like they did against Ohio State.
Odds are...Iowa - 6.5Big Ten Portal says "Kirk Ferentz is 8-3 ATS vs Wisconsin in his career, including 3-1 the last 4 seasons. Bret Bielema's teams have gone Over 71% in Big Ten Road games."
2. No. 6 LSU at No. 4 AUBURN, 3:30 p.m. CBS (10/23)
GRAHAM predicts AUBURN
Les Miles is...Randle Patrick McMurphy. That's right, he's just faking being crazy, it's all an act! He really just wants to take the Michigan job and smoke cigars at Smokies in Ann Arbor and run the ball up the middle for three yards on every down. Earlier this season I picked LSU over Florida in the Swamp. Foolish, I know, UNTIL THE BALL BOUNCED STRAIGHT UP ON A FAKE FIELD GOAL and the Tigers miraculously survived. I refuse to gamble on Les again, I just refuse, the first time almost made my head explode. Auburn and Cam Newton win in a low scoring 42-39 affair.
JON predicts AUBURN
At the beginning of this season I described Cameron Neuton as a "poor man's" Terrelle Pryor. Now, I suppose the opposite may be true. This is the classic unstoppable force versus immovable object matchup. Auburn leads the SEC in total offense, but LSU boasts the best defense in the league. Where's the weak link? It's LSU's inability to pass the football. Last week, they managed just 103 yards passing against McNeese State. Les Miles is playing two quarterbacks to try to spark production on offense. Isn't it about time LSU's luck runs out?
Odds are...Auburn - 4.5
Big Ten Portal says "Both teams have been mediocre in every betting metric this year and have terrible results overall since 2008. LSU has won and covered the past two matchups between these teams, but this year's matchup is more difficult. Both teams are run-dominant, but LSU's D has a definitive advantage. Truly a coin-flip."
1. No. 1 OKLAHOMA at No. 11 MISSOURI, 8:00 p.m. ABC (10/23)
GRAHAM predicts OKLAHOMA
Vegas loves Oklahoma by a touchdown here. Why? Because they're a non-gimmicky Big 12 team that can run AND pass. I loved Vegas for Jon's bachelor party and I'll follow their lead here. Oklahoma...not as good as they're ranked, but still better than Mizzou.
JON predicts OKLAHOMA
For the first time in as long as I can remember Missouri actually has a team capable of beating Oklahoma. That's because the Tigers have a real defense, led by All-Conference Sophomore Aldon Smith, and the Sooners have showed they're fallible in close games against Utah State, Air Force, and Cincinnati. So why, much to my wife's (she's a proud Mizzou alum) chagrin am I still picking Stoops? Because I'm a wimp. That's why.
Odds are...Oklahoma - 6
Big Ten Portal says "Since 2008, the Sooners are 12-6 ATS against Big 12 opponents and 6-4 on all road games, while the Tigers are a weak 7-12 ATS versus Big 12 opponents and 5-9 ATS in all home games. Missouri's D has been noticeably strong against the run and weak against the pass thus far in 2010, while Oklahoma has had more mixed results."
* Big Ten Portal is a website devoted to the culture and trends associated with following and betting Big Ten football. Each week their team provides recent and historic analysis so you have all the data you need to make your picks.
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Penn State
Michigan State
Iowa
Auburn
Oklahoma
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
State
Sparty
Iowa
Auburn
Oklahoma
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
"Turner, at midcourt...inside it, at the buzzer, GOT IT!!!!"
We're the Big Ten, who the F@*# are YOU??!?!?!
Editor of The Cannon, a Columbus Blue Jackets Blog. Check us out!
by Andrew Tolliver on Oct 22, 2010 9:36 AM CDT reply actions
Question
If I had said “Tigers” for the 4th pick, would that be ok? :)
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
"Turner, at midcourt...inside it, at the buzzer, GOT IT!!!!"
We're the Big Ten, who the F@*# are YOU??!?!?!
Editor of The Cannon, a Columbus Blue Jackets Blog. Check us out!
by Andrew Tolliver on Oct 22, 2010 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You bastards...
…all season I thanked my lucky stars that it was unlikely that the Gophers would show up here thus saving me from possibly needing to pick against them. Wish I knew Coach Fitz personally so I could convince him to go all Evil Wizard on you.
I wanted my stupid upset pick to be Mizzou. But homer-ism wins against my better judgment.
Minnesota
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Auburn
Oklahoma
Ought to be easy
Ought to be simple enough.
Penn State (they’ll score somehow, right?)
Sparty (but isn’t this the kind of game that Northwestern justWins)
Iowa (but I’m growing more nervous each hour)
Auburn (but couldn’t the Mad Hatter…)
Oklahoma (easiest pick on the board. Mizzou has won one of 20 against OU. And John Blake won’t be on the Sooner sideline this year)
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
Penn State – It’s Minny, ‘nuff said.
Michigan State – Sparty NO—-way they lose to NW.
Iowa – It’s in Kinnick, and Bielema is a CIA (Closet IowA) agent
Auburn – Why do you keep making me pick games where Les Miles is coaching? I hate you!
Oklahoma – Recent history says that O-who is horrible away from Norman. I think they right the road ship this weekend.
Tough week
Penn State
Northwestern
Iowa
Auburn
Oklahoma
Upset week....
Penn State
Northwestern (it’s an Admiral Akbar game for MSU: It’s a trap! Bye week + lots more passing by Persa gets it done for the Cats)
Wisconsin (that O-Line is terrifying)
Auburn
Mizzou
For your reading pleasure
Penn State- Joe Pa is the next to get canned if he loses to the Goophs.
Northwestern- Total homer pick. I’ve got a lead, I’m entitled to take a flyer.
Iowa- I laid out my reasoning yesterday. Were the Jokeyes ranked above the Badgers, I’d be picking Bucky instead.
Auburn- Remember the rule about the drunk redneck fans?
Oklahoma- I’m still not sold on OU, but Mizzou has yet to Show Me.
Penn State
Northwestern
Iowa
LSU
Oklahoma
by Batman42 on Oct 22, 2010 10:11 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Penn St – as poorly as Penn St has been playing lately, I still think they have enough talent to continue Minnesota’s death dive of a season
Mich St - sneaky tough game, especially considering jNW had a week of to prep. But Mich St has enough talent on both sides of the ball to win this. That being said, we will quote Lee Corso on this “Closer than you think”
Iowa – virtual toss-up, so when in doubt, go with the home team, and as a bonus pick up the extra point if it does happen.
Auburn – would love to pick LSU and nab an extra point, but their luck has to run out (crosses fingers). LSU has to be the luckiest unbeaten team in quite awhile. I just wish that all SEC teams would have 2 losses each going into the SEC CG (not that it will happen).
Missouri – Normally I would take the Sooners, but as I slowly slide down the leaderboard, I need to pick up a cheap point or two somewhere … c’mon Tigers!
This is a 2007 redux
and hence, my picks reflect as such:
Minnesota
Northwestern
Iowa
Auburn
Missouri
Anyone care to join me in last place. I’m bringing the baffles.
The Daily Norseman
Off Tackle Empire
SB Nation Minnesota
"A parent's only as good as their dumbest kid. If one wins a Nobel Prize but the other gets robbed by a hooker, you failed."
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PSU
Michigan State
Iowa
Auburn
Oklahoma
and our pick of the week: http://bit.ly/cztvKO
http://tailgateandcover.wordpress.com/
by tailgateandcover on Oct 22, 2010 10:57 AM CDT reply actions
Penn State
MSU
Iowa
LSU
Oklahoma
If the game against OSU was the second complete game Wisconsin has played this season, when was the first?
Austin Peay
See here.
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The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Jonathan Franz on Oct 22, 2010 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Penn State – Really, Minnesota is a very bad team. Penn State lost a stunning knockout at the hands of the Illini and played poorly against Iowa. Think there have been changes since? Definitely.
MSU – I expect a 55-52 win, because NU’s offense can match anyone’s point for point at home. If this was in East Lansing, I’d expect a Spartan blowout. But anything, and I do mean ANYTHING, can happen on Ryan Field.
Wisconsin – I can’t pick against them at this point, but if Iowa wins it is NOT an upset. An upset is if Wisconsin wins.
Auburn – LSU has no offense and this is in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Cam Newton > LSU’s defense in a heartbeat.
Missouri – I had to do it. This isn’t Norman; it’s Columbia, and that may make all the difference in the world.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 22, 2010 11:17 AM CDT reply actions
Wisconsin is ranked ahead of Iowa in all three polls,
so technically speaking, an Iowa win would be an upset. Almost makes you wonder how Iowa is favored by six. Hmmmm…..
by TarHeelHawk on Oct 22, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
IOWA WINNING IS NOT AN UPSET!!!
Recent history + Iowa home field =/= NOT AN UPSET!
End of story.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 22, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
lol I can’t explain Northwestern’s decade plus home win streak against Wisconsin either.
Transitive Rankings: It's not who you beat, it's who they beat. Post Week 7: Big Ten and all FBS
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
a 60% chance of rain all day in Chicago
…and you expect 107 points scored between MSU and Northwestern?
Also, which performance from Michigan State’s defense gives you the impression that Northwestern will score 52 on them?
http://tailgateandcover.wordpress.com/
by tailgateandcover on Oct 22, 2010 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
The fact that NU's passing offense
has been much much better than Wisconsin’s? They’re not going 3 and out nearly as many times at home.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 22, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd also point out...
…that Persa is a far more accurate passer than anyone else MSU has faced so far (78% completion rate, only 2 INTs). Given that MSU beat Michigan 34-17 but needed 3 INTs from Shoelace (including 2 when Michigan was in the red-zone, near scoring), and NU has a better defense than Michigan, and NU has had 2 weeks to get ready….and MSU has to be thinking, just a slight bit, about its game next week in Iowa City….
Well, I could see an upset, and/or a shootout (NU struggling to stop MSU’s running game; MSU’s young, good-so-far-but-still-inexperienced secondary having problems with Persa and NU’s passing attack)…..
Persa also hasn't faced a remotely competent defense yet.
I don’t put a lot of faith in those numbers yet.
Also, your defense is better than Michigan’s against the pass. I don’t think it’s better against the run. And MSU loves to run the ball.
Hmm
Penn State
Michigan State
Iowa
Auburn
Oklahoma
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
Penn State
Michigan State
Iowa
LSU
Oklahoma
by RodgersHasAHose on Oct 22, 2010 11:34 AM CDT reply actions
Maybe I'm just crazy enough...
PSU
Northwestern (I’m probably wrong, but, fuck it)
Wisconsin (I’m probably wrong, but, fuck it)
Auburn
Oklahoma
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
Penn State Never underestimate a newly motivated home team, but Penn State isn’t that bad.
Northwestern It could happen right? Anyone?
Wisconsin Let’s review. Step 1: Wisconsin beats up Ohio State. Step 2: Wisconsin is an underdog to Iowa. This makes sense?
Auburn Outback Bowl solidarity
Oklahoma
Transitive Rankings: It's not who you beat, it's who they beat. Post Week 7: Big Ten and all FBS
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
Penn State – There’s at least one thing they do well (defense). That’s one more than what Minnesota does well.
Michigan State – When your three toughest games to date are Vandy, Purdue, and Minnesota, and you have a net 0 margin in those three games, I don’t like your chances against a real team.
Iowa – Upset points for a home favorite that isn’t ludicrously-overrated Michigan? Yes please. Easiest pick on the board by a mile.
LSU – Never underestimate the powers of The Hat.
Missouri – Just a gut feeling on this one (plus the upset point).
Ferocious Member of the Weasel Family > a birdy
Minnesota
Northwestern
Wisconsin
LSU
Missouri
Penn State – I think PSU starts to right the ship. And the easiest way to get well is to beat up on St. Mary’s School of the Crippled and Blind, er Minnesota
MSU
Iowa – it’s either close or a complete blowout. I’m betting the former
Auburn – I continue to go with the home time rule. Though this has bitten me on the ass a number of times this season. But I think LSU’s offense is even more incompetent than Auburn’s defense
Oklahoma
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Michigan
Michigan is off
… but their defense will still give up 63 points.
by sonofsarek on Oct 22, 2010 3:42 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Nothing Clever; Just Picks
I’m way too busy for this right now, so here’s what I’ve got:
Penn State
MSU
Wisconsin
Auburn
Mizzou (3 straight loses by #1 too rich to pass up…)
Courting mediocrity since 1964.
by lakeeriemonstar on Oct 22, 2010 4:22 PM CDT reply actions
Debating whether or not to pick Minny...
It seems that picking Penn State has jinxed them…
But I just can’t.
Penn State
Michigan State
Iowa
LSU
Oklahoma
Joe Paterno is my adopted grandfather.
Nittany Lion Love,
Meredith
by PaternosGranddaughter on Oct 22, 2010 7:47 PM CDT reply actions
I know I’m not in the competition, but can I throw picks out there anyway?
Penn State: Yeah, Penn State is not very good this year. But come on, it’s Minnesota.
Mich. State: I’m counting on MSU to not revert to their tradition of losing games they should win.
Iowa: I just see a let down for Wisconsin. Plus, I think Iowa is the best in the Big Ten at the moment. I see them beating OSU.
Auburn: Is there a SINGLE impressive win by LSU? MAYBE West Virginia? I think this one gets ugly.
Oklahoma: I hope I’m wrong. I love chaos in college football. That’s why 2007 was fun to watch (Except for the title game…).
No one here wants a 2006 or 2007 NCG repeat.
And I mean NOBODY in their right mind…
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 22, 2010 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions
picks
Psu
msu
iowa
auburn
okla
by RickTheBloggerMartel on Oct 22, 2010 9:48 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
PSU
MSU
Wisconsin – one of the hardest choices.
Auburn
OK
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Oct 22, 2010 10:52 PM CDT reply actions
My Homerism comes through
Minnesota
Michigan St
Iowa
Auburn
Mizzou
by Ski U Mah Gopher on Oct 22, 2010 11:49 PM CDT reply actions
Penn State – the injured, baby Nittany Lions looked positively awful against Illinois. Two weeks of practices, healing, and pent up anger get unleashed today on Minnesota
Michigan State – Both teams got through the non-con undefeated. Northwestern looked fairly good doing it. MSU did not. 3 weeks into Big Ten play, Northwestern looks bad and MSU looks great. I’m picking MSU and feel OK about it, but wouldn’t be shocked with an upset here.
Iowa – As impressive as Wisconsin was last week, this is still a team that got beaten soundly by MSU, and right now, Iowa looks like MSU only better
LSU – toughest pick of the week. Both teams are undefeated but could easily have 3 losses to mediocre teams. Somebody is going to win this game and the computers will have to love them for it. The polls will love them for it too.
Oklahoma – Mizzou is quietly one of this year’s pleasant surprises, but Oklahoma has already beaten a few teams as good or better than Mizzou
Can you feel a little love? Dream on; dream on
PSU - Penn State off the by week trumps Minny with a new coach. Even though I want to take the upset here.
MSU - Northwestern just isn’t that good or that unpredictable. They have only a decent record over a bad schedule.
Iowa - I don’t think Iowa’s the better team, but I think they win their first tough home game. I hope I’m wrong.
Auburn - LSU’s erraticness catches up with them in this one.
Mizzou - Missouri is still smarting from their Big Ten rejection and proves themselves by completing the trifecta of #1 upsets. They’ve already beaten a solid Illinois and Texas A&M. Also, I missed several weeks and need an upset.
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