Bowl Projections - Post Week 8

If you read my projections regularly, you may have come to realize that I put a lot of stock in history. It's kind of on the theory of those who do not learn are doomed to repeat. And what makes college football so much fun, is when history gets thrown out the window for a Saturday.

Mizzou had lost 19 of their last 20 against Oklahoma. Iowa had won 6 of 8 against Wisconsin, and no Iowa team that had won 7 games had ever lost to the Badgers. Texas had beaten Iowa State every meeting. And in the span of ten hours, we saw all three of those historical facts thrown out.

It's caused the biggest shake-up yet in these predictions. The big winner in all of this? Probably the SEC (and talk radio). I expect to hear quite a bit of discussion as to whether the one-loss SEC champion deserves the BCS Title game over undefeated Boise. They will, and they'll go.

As for this upcoming week, history teaches us that there's no way that Missouri beat s Nebraska, right? On to the picks...

  1. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
  2. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Sugar Bowl; 4) Orange Bowl; 5) Fiesta Bowl.
  3. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will be required to take a non-automatic qualifier.  This will only be required of the Rose Bowl the first time it occurs over the next four years. 
  4. The Gator Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Insight Bowl this year.  It will rotate the other way next year.

Got it?  Good.  Let's get on to the projections.

Bcs_championship_logo2010_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Oregon_medium_medium_medium Alabama_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium It says here that a one-loss SEC Champ gets in the the title game over an undefeated Boise/TCU/Utah. As well they should. Meanwhile, Oregon should be very careful about their game next Saturday night. USC has nothing to play for but ruining the Ducks' season. It's not like #1 hasn't gone down on the road before.
Rosebowl_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Boise_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Boise gets the Pac-10 spot with Oregon in the title game.

Yes, Ohio State goes back to the Rose Bowl. In a three-way tie with Wisconsin, Michigan State, it will come down to BCS rankings. That will send the Buckeyes, who should have the best numbers.

Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Auburn_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Nebraska_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Auburn, at 11-1 is chosen to replace Alabama. Nebraska, at 11-2 is an easy first selection as an at large.
Orangebowl_2010_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Florida_st_medium_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium I still have Florida State winning the ACC. The last at large pick will be a Big Ten team. And I think that it's the Badgers over the Spartans. Because they'll have lost earlier, Wisconsin will have a better ranking. Plus, the win over Ohio State is more impressive than any of Sparty's wins. Oh, head-to-head? Not a big factor.
Fiestabowl_2006_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Oklahoma_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Pittsburgh_medium

Yes, Oklahoma will win the BIg 12. They'll beat Nebraska in the Big 12 Title game. And then they'll get some palooka from the Big East. This week's palooka is Pitt. Because really, why not?
Capitalonebowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Arkansas_medium_medium No, Sparty is not happy to be here. Yes, Arkansas is. That makes for a scary matchup for the Green.
Outbackbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Iowa_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Mississippi_st_medium So the Hawkeyes fall to fourth among the Big Four of the Big Ten. The Outback Bowl decides to take an excited 8-4 Mississippi State fanbase over the dejected ones from the SEC East schools. 
Gatorbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Florida_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium A game that sounds better than it probably will be. Will the SEC acknowledge Denard Robinson's speed?
Insightbowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Illinois_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_old5_medium

It's not just that Illinois is winning, it's that they're looking dominant. This team will be a real headache for opponents next year (it already is this year).

After the BCS Bowls, in the Big 12, I have Missouri to the Cotton, Okie State to the Alamo, and then Texas here.

Texasbowl_non_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Northwestern_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Kansas_st_medium_medium

The Wildcats better be careful with their game in Indiana. Their final four (@PSU, IA, IL, @WI) is not a safe place to be looking for a sixth win.

Kansas State and their seven wins get this spot. If Baylor, Tech, or A&M get to seven, look for a Texas team here.

Dallasclassic_2010_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Penn_state_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium
Texas_am_medium
Two 6-6 football teams. And at least in name, a pretty nice sounding matchup.
Littlecaesarsbowl_2009_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Northern_illinois_medium_medium
Louisiana-monroe_medium_medium

The Big Ten can't fill this slot, which means that the Sun Belt's #3 team will take the bid.

I still have the Huskies as the MAC Champ.

Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Purdue_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium
Indiana_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium
Minnesota_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

When you can't get to six wins, you know that you'll spend the bowl season On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (sponsored by Ro*Tel).

Indiana probably saw it's best route to six wins go by the board in its loss to Illinois. Illinois could be the team that keeps Purdue from reaching six wins as well.

At least Minnesota stopped wearing those ugly white helmets...

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