Bowl Projections - Post Week 8
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 24, 2010 6:24 AM CDT
in Bowl Projections
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PrintIf you read my projections regularly, you may have come to realize that I put a lot of stock in history. It's kind of on the theory of those who do not learn are doomed to repeat. And what makes college football so much fun, is when history gets thrown out the window for a Saturday.
Mizzou had lost 19 of their last 20 against Oklahoma. Iowa had won 6 of 8 against Wisconsin, and no Iowa team that had won 7 games had ever lost to the Badgers. Texas had beaten Iowa State every meeting. And in the span of ten hours, we saw all three of those historical facts thrown out.
It's caused the biggest shake-up yet in these predictions. The big winner in all of this? Probably the SEC (and talk radio). I expect to hear quite a bit of discussion as to whether the one-loss SEC champion deserves the BCS Title game over undefeated Boise. They will, and they'll go.
As for this upcoming week, history teaches us that there's no way that Missouri beat s Nebraska, right? On to the picks...
- The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
- The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Sugar Bowl; 4) Orange Bowl; 5) Fiesta Bowl.
- If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will be required to take a non-automatic qualifier. This will only be required of the Rose Bowl the first time it occurs over the next four years.
- The Gator Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Insight Bowl this year. It will rotate the other way next year.
Got it? Good. Let's get on to the projections.
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It says here that a one-loss SEC Champ gets in the the title game over an undefeated Boise/TCU/Utah. As well they should. Meanwhile, Oregon should be very careful about their game next Saturday night. USC has nothing to play for but ruining the Ducks' season. It's not like #1 hasn't gone down on the road before. |
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Boise gets the Pac-10 spot with Oregon in the title game. Yes, Ohio State goes back to the Rose Bowl. In a three-way tie with Wisconsin, Michigan State, it will come down to BCS rankings. That will send the Buckeyes, who should have the best numbers. |
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Auburn, at 11-1 is chosen to replace Alabama. Nebraska, at 11-2 is an easy first selection as an at large. |
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I still have Florida State winning the ACC. The last at large pick will be a Big Ten team. And I think that it's the Badgers over the Spartans. Because they'll have lost earlier, Wisconsin will have a better ranking. Plus, the win over Ohio State is more impressive than any of Sparty's wins. Oh, head-to-head? Not a big factor. |
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Yes, Oklahoma will win the BIg 12. They'll beat Nebraska in the Big 12 Title game. And then they'll get some palooka from the Big East. This week's palooka is Pitt. Because really, why not? |
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No, Sparty is not happy to be here. Yes, Arkansas is. That makes for a scary matchup for the Green. |
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So the Hawkeyes fall to fourth among the Big Four of the Big Ten. The Outback Bowl decides to take an excited 8-4 Mississippi State fanbase over the dejected ones from the SEC East schools. |
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A game that sounds better than it probably will be. Will the SEC acknowledge Denard Robinson's speed? |
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It's not just that Illinois is winning, it's that they're looking dominant. This team will be a real headache for opponents next year (it already is this year). After the BCS Bowls, in the Big 12, I have Missouri to the Cotton, Okie State to the Alamo, and then Texas here. |
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The Wildcats better be careful with their game in Indiana. Their final four (@PSU, IA, IL, @WI) is not a safe place to be looking for a sixth win. Kansas State and their seven wins get this spot. If Baylor, Tech, or A&M get to seven, look for a Texas team here. |
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Two 6-6 football teams. And at least in name, a pretty nice sounding matchup. |
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The Big Ten can't fill this slot, which means that the Sun Belt's #3 team will take the bid. I still have the Huskies as the MAC Champ. |
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When you can't get to six wins, you know that you'll spend the bowl season On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (sponsored by Ro*Tel). Indiana probably saw it's best route to six wins go by the board in its loss to Illinois. Illinois could be the team that keeps Purdue from reaching six wins as well. At least Minnesota stopped wearing those ugly white helmets... |
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Comments
Thanks for ruining my Sunday morning.
7-1/11-1 MSU to the Capital One would be a total screwjob to Spartan fans. The worst part about it is, I can totally see it happening in the manner you describe.
I have been counting Iowa as a loss for MSU. Wisconsin showed that Iowa is not invincible at home, but I still think MSU loses to a very pissed-off Hawkeye team. Spartan fans are forced to root for another OSU loss, most likely to Iowa, but possibly to Michigan. Or for another Wisconsin loss, at Michigan but possibly to Northwestern. Ugh, it’s making me madder and madder.
I need a baffle.
2010 MSU
could join 1991 Iowa and 2006 Wisconsin as two of the most bowl-screwed teams in Big Ten history.
Or they could run the table and play for the title.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 24, 2010 7:19 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm fairly certain
That after the tiebreaker between the 3 is enacted, the two-way tiebreaker is put to use, therefore MSU goes to the Orange bowl over Wisconsin due to the fact that MSU beat Wisky… rather convincingly I might add.
Nope
Once the Rose Bowl slot is decided, everything else is whatever the bowls feel like doing (within reason; I think there’s a rule that you can’t jump a team with a record two games better than yours, and 6-6 can’t go until all the 7-5s are taken).
That said, I think MSU might get the nod over Wisconsin if they’re both 11-1, for two reasons: 1) head-to-head, and 2) MSU fans will be absolutely nuts about a BCS bid (none in the BCS era, last Rose Bowl was 1988) and Wisconsin fans might be a little less so. I’d rather it doesn’t come to that (Iowa, please beat Ohio State, then it doesn’t matter if you beat us as long as Wisconsin wins out), but I’m not convinced Wisconsin isn’t the most likely to get the shaft.
I don't know about that.
We Badger fans have been so desperate to get out of the mid-level Florida bowls (Outback, Champs, even Capital One) that we’d go totally bonkers for a BCS bowl…even if it’s still in Florida.
"Career highlights? I had two. I got an intentional walk from Sandy Koufax and I got out of a rundown against the Mets." - Bob Uecker
We may possibly be less nuts
but probably just as nuts as you. I do know we will be more angry than you with a Capital One bid if we get to 11-1. Already happened in 2006, we don’t want to get shafted again.
I think Wisconsin should get credit for having to play all of the other top 3 Big Ten teams, 2 of them on the road. (Ohio State and Michigan State get the luxury of not having to play each other, Iowa gets the luxury of playing all of the other top 3 teams at home.) Not that the BCS cares.
I’d hope the Wisconsin fans’ reputation for traveling to bowls en masse would be taken into consideration. I feel like MSU and Wisconsin are on the same plane when it comes to name recognition. Hopefully how we performed in our bowl last year against Miami is also considered.
But this is all garbage if Wisconsin doesn’t win out, so I’m going to start worrying about this only if the Badgers keep winning.
Bucky's 5th Quarter - All Badgers, all the time.
by Adam Tupitza on Oct 24, 2010 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Completely agree
This would hurt so badly. Losing late should not matter. MSU is better than Wisconsin. It was proven on the field.
by That Guy Green on Oct 29, 2010 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions
Every other week
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 24, 2010 7:49 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I thought it was because
the Big East is going to have zero teams qualify for a bowl, so the entire bowl system as we know it will blow up and cease to exist*.
- Except for bowls involving Big Ten teams ‘cause we’re awesome
by Adam Tupitza on Oct 24, 2010 7:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Big Ten title tiebreakers
so in a 3 way tie, the first one is BCS standings? didn’t there used to be a rule about a win over an FCS team counting less than if you played all FBS teams? I could be completely making that up, but I do vaguely remember something like that being discussed, I think it was in 2008 when Penn State went to the Rose Bowl and there was the extremely unlikely possibility of a 3-way tie at the end.
never mind
you were correct (unsurprisingly). link to all the tiebreakers is here: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/102204aad.html
for those interested
They ditched the FCS rule last year, I think
And it’s moot anyway because all of the top four played one.
Cotton Bowl
They’ll lose to Nebraska, and maybe once more.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 24, 2010 3:07 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Thoughts on the game yesterday, because I know you're all interested.
This is what I wrote over on BHGP, and I post it here because I really don’t feel like writing something new. Call me lazy.
It’s popular sentiment on some of the Iowa boards (HN) that Iowa gave away the game yesterday – and while that’s true to an extent, Wisconsin did drive the length of the field with 6 minutes to play, they did convert two 4th downs on that drive, and they did score the go-ahead touchdown with a minute to go. Iowa did leave the door open, but Wisconsin knocked it down and you have to give them credit for that.
Lots of "little things" added up to a bitter defeat yesterday. You can often point to 1/2 a dozen or so plays in a close game like that, and it’s those plays that determine the outcome. Yesterday, Iowa came out on the wrong end of all of them.
1. Blocked PAT
2. 3rd and 1 from the Badger 9 yard line, Iowa gets called for a false start and then an illegal formation, leading to…
3. A botched snap on the field goal, leaving Iowa with nothing 10 yards from the Wisconsin goal line.
4. Not knowing the fake was coming, even when running the fake was Wisconsin’s only chance of keeping the ball.
5. Stanzi taking a sack on Iowa’s last possession, costing Iowa valuable yards, and a timeout. This isn’t getting talked about anywhere, but Ricky has to get rid of the ball. Chuck that fucker into the stands. You absolutely cannot afford a sack at that point, and Ricky biffed that play big-time.
6. The clusterfuck that was the last couple plays of the game. It doesn’t look like Rick knew what the plan was after getting the first down, and that’s on the coaches.
7. Knowing you have no timeouts left, running a shovel pass up the middle of the field.
8. Intercepting a Tolzein with 8 minutes to play, having the ball inside the Wisconsin 30, and only getting a field goal out of it. A touchdown there essentially wins the game. Only getting a field goal allowed the Badgers to run their regular offense on their last drive.
The way I see it, this season can now go one of two ways. The senior leadership on this team can either step up and get it done (2008), or fold and lose more games like this the rest of the way (2005). It’s on them.
I also add that that I was impressed with Tolzein yesterday. He managed the game, and was surgical in his throws. Based on what he did against the Hawks last year, I certainly didn’t see the coming from him. He did make the big mistake in the 4th quarter, but the Hawks weren’t able to make the Badgers pay.
Kudos to Wisconsin, and kudos to Tolzein.
Interesting Texas Bowl matchup
I’d put my money on the Wildcats to win that one.
by Batman42 on Oct 24, 2010 12:14 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
purdue's chance
I think you’ll see a completely different purdue team and an upset of illinois is possible. The immediate game after Danny Hope’s three worst coaching games (NIU and Wisconsin last year, Toledo this year) Purdue has looked night and day better. They are 2-1 in such games with road upsets as the wins
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
by BoilerTMill on Oct 24, 2010 1:51 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I think you're wrong
on the selection of Ohio State over Wisconsin and the selection of Alabama over Auburn.
I don’t know what the new BCS standings will say at the end of today, but I have a feeling the end of the season will see those two results flipped, if things shake out with Sparty getting screwed.
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
I doubt OSU gets selected over Wisconsin.
BCS selection committees have an unfortunate sample size to work from (2006, 2007, and 2008) when it comes to Ohio State.
Last time Wisconsin made the BCS, Ron Dayne won the Heisman Trophy.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 7:16 PM CDT up reply actions
The only bowl foolish enough to
choose Wisconsin over Ohio State is the Limburger Cheese Bowl, which is played in your head. Get a clue homer. Ohio State is an elite program with a natonal championship in this decade, a rabid fan following, it has held the #1 ranking in this year (no less), and is TV ratings gold (even if it is for people to cheer against them). Wisconsin is one of 13 schools in the University of Wisconsin System whose most compelling football story is that of its coach having body art that pays tribute to the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Rev up your trailer home for the Cap One Bowl big boy.
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
Wow.
You being an idiot is priceless. It really is.
How classy.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 8:25 PM CDT up reply actions
no
cause in 2008, they chose a No.10 ranked 10-2 team OSU team to play Texas. Fiesta Bowl pple love OSU cause our fans travel extremely well…Orange Bowl does that too
in 2007, Miss beat Kansas ( when they were 2 and 3) and when though Miss was ranked over Kansas and had beat them…they chose Kansas to play in the Orange Bowl over Miss only bc their fans travel well.
It has happened…and will happen
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
Well
That’s a good point. But 2008 really was a weak Big Ten. The postseason was possibly the worst in Big Ten history, too.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions
i think we all went 1-6 or 1-5
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
It would have been better
but for Ohio State getting robbed by the officials against UT. That was awful, awful officiating, possibly the worst I’ve ever seen.
Yeah, we were 1-6 that postseason. No one wants that to happen again.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions
It would have been better if Tress hadn't played musical chairs w. the QB's....Todd should have played more
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
what flag r u talking about in that game?
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
The BS call on Pryor in the endzone
the DB got beat and everyone knew it.
I didn’t like Tressel’s dogged insistence on going for 2 that game. Really killed the Buckeyes; they NEEDED whatever points they could get.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah true...but the fade td from one qb to another qb was amazing
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
you also forgot these
2002 BCS title win,
2003 Fiesta title win,
2005 Fiesta title win,
2009 Rose Bowl win
OSU has the most BCS bowl appearances and they are 5-3
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
Believe me
eSECpn doesn’t care about the early 2000s. They’ll blow the 2006-2007 NCGs out of proportion. Basically, all the stops are going to be pulled out against the Buckeyes.
Can they do it? Possibly. Can = Will? Don’t know at this point.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions
doesn't matter...if that's the case...they would have not taken osu in 2008
but they did.
either way….SEC and the Big ten will get 2 bids…..mich st, osu and wisc will be fighting for those
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
SEC West might
but it depends on if Bama survives. LSU is going to suffer at least one more loss.
Auburn/Alabama decides the SEC’s BCS games, definitely.
SEC East = trainwreck.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Sec West...i seen 2 teams from that div to get 2 bids...
guess who leads the big 12 south div =???…Baylor lol
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
Rather stunning.
Texas really, really sucks this season. Not that I find ANYTHING wrong with that.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions
they are having a bad season...like osu did in 2004 when they had Zwick playing...before Troy Smith took over and saved the season
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
i wish the big ten made each team play each other like the pac 10...but i guess its too late
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
People actually hate that.
It really doesn’t make sense. There’s no argument that one team got away because they didn’t face another team that season. So the 2006 Wisconsin-Ohio State-Michigan screwball doesn’t happen.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions
dont know why...much easier to settle a title race
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
They have to cut a free win, I think.
Or what they THINK is a free win. They lose a nonconference game and have to play 9 conference games.
They’ve never had 2 BCS bids in a single season sense that started. They should have in 2004, but UT whined their way in and beat the worst Big Ten champions in recent memory…
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions
it was a great rose bowl game tho
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
That was a terrible Big Ten rep, though.
ZWACKINESS managed to beat them rather handily.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions
That doesn't matter
if it comes down to BCS rankings. As of right now, Wisconsin has a higher ranking in all of the human polls as well as all of the computer averages (and thus, a better BCS ranking). That could change at the end of the season, but I think if they both win out Wisconsin will have the better numbers.
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
well
thats what happened in 2007.
Missouri beat Kansas and Miss. were ranked higher in the final BCS poll over Kansas (before the bowl games began) and they (Orange Bowl) chose Kansas over Missouri. OKH went to the Fiesta bowl. Orange Bowl officals said they chose Kansas over Missouri was because Kansas fans traveled well
Any team in the top 12 can be considered for a bcs bid. Any top 4 teams have to get in. All BCS conference winners will get it.
If Mich St wins out…they will go to the Rose bowl and if OSU and Wisc win out…OSU will get in….Fiesta bowl will take them. They have taken them in 2008 on a at large bid.
Our fans travel really well
Non Sibi Sed Patriae.
I love my ZX-6r Kawasaki.
I bleed Scarlet and Grey...A Buckeye for Life
Pat McAfee -Colts punter-"@StampedeBlue I hope your website gets exposed for a complete joke. There’s no reason for you to do that, and its completely ridiculous."
Yes, but if it gets to that point
OSU will have won in Iowa. That will move them up substantially. Wisconsin has no major wins ahead to match that.
Better numbers don't necessarily matter
They only count for tie-breaking consideration for the auto-bid. If we’re talking an at-large bid, the bowls are free to pick whomever they want, so long as the qualify (have to be top 12 in the BCS rankngs I believe)
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Right
I was talking about the tie-breaker for the auto-bid to the rose bowl. After that, all bets are off.
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
But, in that scenario, for Wisky to have any chance
you’d still need MSU to lose twice. And, as of right now, I just don’t see that happening.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
If MSU is tapped for the NCG
do the rose bowl tie breaker rules go out the window?
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
Yes.
If a team is ranked #1 or #2 in the BCS and they are part of the tie, they get the Big Ten auto-bid. (Not relevant this time, as there’s no way we go to the BCS title game with a loss.)
UNLESS
some really crazy stuff happens in the final stretch.
Happened to the 2007 Buckeyes.
You can't be serious, man! You cannot be serious! His foot was on the line! It was ON THE LINE! He was clearly out! How could you possibly call him in!?
"I'm going to award a point against you, Mr. OBrienSchofieldismyHero."
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 25, 2010 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Also
I think it’s strange that you think that Illinois is dominant after a win over an Indiana team with no defense (look how many points they gave up to TOWSON) and Northwestern isn’t after taking an upset of Michigan State to the final minutes of the fourth quarter.
The Wrigley Field game is going to be awesome, but I still put my money on Northwestern.
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
Texas to the Insight?
This means that you believe some combination of the following:
1) Texas is not good, and/or will lose several more games
2) Missouri AND Oklahoma State ARE good and will NOT lose several more games
3) Two bowl games based in Texas (Cotton, Alamo) will pass on Texas to take Missouri or Okie State if they are remotely close in performance.
Put another way, I think either Mizzou or Okie State would have to be AT LEAST 2, possibly 3 games better to not get jumped by Texas for one of those games.
Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa
Texas fans don't seem interested in following their team anymore.
If they can’t fill the stands after a huge win versus Nebraska (and now a loss to Iowa State), why would a bowl committee be interested in them?
by Aaron Musfeldt on Oct 24, 2010 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Because
They’ll do better TV numbers than most every other team. And ESPN has an ownership stake in a number of these bowls.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 24, 2010 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I seriously doubt
that Texas makes a huge game at 4-3. Winning out is highly doubtful; aTm has an offense but no defense. Oklahoma State is ten points away from remaining undefeated. Baylor, of all people, could come out of nowhere with their first win over UT in years (I know, its doubtful). Texas has gone from Top 5 to middling in just one season. Not surprising given all they lost in talent and performance.
Obviously, Minnesota will hire John L. Smith to be their next head football coach.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Honestly, I think Mizzou and Okie State may well end up 2-3 games better than Texas.
Texas has yet to play Baylor, Okie State, and Texas A&M; the way they’re playing any and all of those are potential losses.
Meanwhile, Mizzou has @NEB, @TexTech, K-State, @ISU, and Kansas. I don’t see them losing more than two of those games, which would put them at 10-2.
Okie State has a far tougher remaining slate: @K-State, Baylor, @Texas, @Kansas, Oklahoma. They could easily wind up 9-3 or so and if Texas goes 8-4, they could probably jump them. But who knows. I do think Texas is headed to a lousy bowl if they don’t improve in a hurry. That Nebraska win looks like quite a mirage at this point.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
Fair enough
I think all of the above listed games could be Ls for the relevant teams except for the games against Kansas.
Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa
by Not Marv Cook on Oct 26, 2010 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions
The Rose Bowl
Here’s how the top 4 of the Big Ten get the Rose Bowl (wins are assumed against everyone else unless otherwise noted) unless I’ve missed something.
MSU gets it if:
They beat Iowa
OR
They lose to Iowa, BUT Iowa beats OSU
OSU gets it if:
Iowa beats MSU AND they beat Iowa*
Wisconsin gets it if:
Iowa beats OSU AND beats MSU, AND MSU loses another game
Iowa gets it if:
They beat MSU AND OSU AND Wisconsin loses one more game
*Technically, whoever has the highest BCS ranking out of MSU, OSU and UW gets it, but since OSU would have the most recent big win (Iowa), they could jump and get it, though UW or MSU could have it in this scenario as well
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
The Iowa/OSU result has no bearing on Wisconsin
unless Michigan State finishes with one loss. In that case we’d want OSU to beat Iowa so that it would come down to the BCS rankings on who goes to Pasadena. There’d be no scenario where we’re rooting for Iowa against Ohio State.
Bucky's 5th Quarter - All Badgers, all the time.
by Adam Tupitza on Oct 24, 2010 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions
There's few scenarios
where we’d root for Iowa, period, right?
You can't be serious, man! You cannot be serious! His foot was on the line! It was ON THE LINE! He was clearly out! How could you possibly call him in!?
"I'm going to award a point against you, Mr. OBrienSchofieldismyHero."
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions
We do want Iowa to beat Michigan State
But beyond that, no. Iowa helps us none in a three way tiebreaker with Michigan State because they would get eliminated because of overall record. Then we lose the head-to-head with MSU.
A three-way tie between us, Ohio State, and Michigan State gives UW a better shot at a BCS game because in that scenario it goes to the highest BCS rank.
Bucky's 5th Quarter - All Badgers, all the time.
by Adam Tupitza on Oct 24, 2010 11:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I disagree
It’s reasonable to assume that OSU would win the auto-bid in that case, after which it depends on how confident you are that one-loss Wisconsin would be chosen for a BCS at-large spot ahead of one-loss MSU.
Some Wisconsin fans might not be so confident and would prefer to tie at 7-1 with MSU and Iowa; yes, MSU would take the auto-bid in that case, but gives the Badgers a clear leg up for the at-large BCS bid.
It was a great selection of awesome.
The 3 big games
between the teams at the top of the conference have been played.
But Iowa now determines who plays for all the marbles…
You can't be serious, man! You cannot be serious! His foot was on the line! It was ON THE LINE! He was clearly out! How could you possibly call him in!?
"I'm going to award a point against you, Mr. OBrienSchofieldismyHero."
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2010 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not entirely convinced Penn State will make a bowl this year
but I doubt, with the way Paterno looks this season, that if eligible at all they end up that far down the pecking order. They made exceptions to the “rules” for Bowden last year, I bet someone pushes for one this year as well.
agreed
I wonder how much attention bowl officials pay to “matchups”; i.e I would love seeing TAMU v PSU…
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Oct 25, 2010 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
I think the best bowl matchup would be TT (if they EVER get their act together) and Michigan (should they win any of their final remaining games). Furious, fast-paced offenses, with no defense whatsoever.
Michigan wins 65-62.
You can't be serious, man! You cannot be serious! His foot was on the line! It was ON THE LINE! He was clearly out! How could you possibly call him in!?
"I'm going to award a point against you, Mr. OBrienSchofieldismyHero."
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 25, 2010 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Of course, you realize...
…the game would last five and a half hours. People would fall asleep at halftime and wake up just in time to see the final score, then lie to their friends that they watched the whole thing.
It’d be like when I went and saw Titanic for the first time. My back was starting to hurt from sitting so long, and [SPOILER ALERT] the boat hadn’t even hit the iceberg yet.
Or like the ending
to the third lord of the rings movie. Made me realize how bad of a decision my “medium” soda was.
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
OK State
would be better.
Texas Tech is already showing signs of Tubervillainy.
Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa
by Not Marv Cook on Oct 26, 2010 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions
You mean
they give up 500+ yards of offense to Wisconsin and generally get humiliated on national TV?
2005 Auburn
Soon coming to SBNation: The Peyton's Liberation Army?
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 26, 2010 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Playing Wisconsin... sweet.
Rematch of 2008
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Congratulations
On losing control of your destiny in the ACC Atlantic.
So many similarities to this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyGQ_lyd83E
Trail Blazers atop the Northwest at 2-0!
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 29, 2010 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
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