A Diabolical Plan for OSU to Make the Title Game

Before anything else, I need to emphasize this right now: I don't think the Buckeyes will sniff the title game, for one main reason: Ohio State would need to beat the Hawkeyes, and I don't see it happening right now. As a matter of fact, there is a very good chance that not only do they go 10-2 and miss a BCS Bowl, but they fall all the way to the Outback bowl.

Plus, I don't see the equivilant of 2007 happening again. Of course, people didn't see 2007 happening in 2007 (???).

Anyways, for this diabolical plan, each thing OSU needs to have happen will be listed with a percentage likelihood that it happens (similar to a post a couple weeks ago by one of the main bloggers). Then those totals will be used to find the overall probability of this scenario working.


First things first: Ohio State has to win their four final games.

OSU defeating Minnesota: 85%...If OSU loses this, they deserve to be banned from the top 25 for the rest of the season. I am only slightly exaggerating.

OSU defeating Penn State: 70%...I think this could be closer than it should be.

OSU defeating Iowa: 40%...It will tough for OSU to beat Iowa if their defense plays at all like they did against Wisconsin.

OSU defeating Michigan: 65%...This isn't a lock by any means. Keep in mind Michigan has lost to MSU and Iowa. They weren't completely dominated in those games, either.

Now, a lot of other things have to happen for the Buckeyes to have a chance to reach Glendale. First off...

Oregon needs to lose at least one game, and the two best chances for that to happen are against Arizona and USC. I'm giving USC the better chance since the game is in the Coliseum. 35%

Boise State needs to lose to SOMEBODY. However, the best chance of a loss is against Nevada. 30%

The winner of the TCU/Utah game needs to lose somewhere else. 15%

Auburn's Schedule until playing Bama is sort of a joke. Ole Miss, Chattanooga, and Georgia. I don't see either Auburn nor Bama losing until the Iron Bowl. Auburn would still be 1st or 2nd, but it would be best for the Buckeyes if Auburn won here. If Auburn lost, there is no guarentee OSU jumps them. If Bama loses, OSU probably would jump the Tide. 50%

Michigan State needs to lose at Iowa. Therefore, OSU would jump MSU for sure if the Buckeyes win in Iowa City. 50%

Wisconsin needs to lose to somebody. However, Buckeye fans should root for that team to be...Michigan. More on Michigan in a moment. 35%

Now, Michigan is not currently in the BCS standings. HOWEVER, they are ranked in the USA Today poll. If Michigan were to win against Illinois, Penn State, and Purdue before playing Wisconsin, they would likely be ranked when they play the Buckeyes. That would really benefit OSU for strength of schedule.

Michigan defeating Illinois...50%

Michigan defeating Penn State...65%

Michigan defeating Purdue...65%

Also, Mizzou needs to lose to Nebraska (who has the best shot of beating them): 55%

Now...with those percentages multiplied, the chance of this scenario is........................................

.0024% Obviously, this stat is UGLY. Now, there were a few things that weren't entirely necessary for the Buckeyes to reach the title game. This would include Michigan beating Illinois, Penn State, and Purdue. If those percentages are removed, the final percentage becomes...

.0213% Now, this stat is a whopping .0189% less ugly than before. What this shows is how huge a climb OSU has to get back into the discussion for the title game (and this scenario is for getting to #2 in the standings. Auburn is assumed to be given the #1 spot).

Now, do I think OSU, in reality, has only a .0024% chance of reaching the title game? No. However, mathematically, these results just show how unlikely seeing a repeat of 2007 would be.

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