The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 9
by Jonathan Franz on Oct 29, 2010 9:51 AM CDT
in Obligatory Predictions Competition
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1. NORTHWESTERN at INDIANA, 12:00 p.m. (Big Ten Network)
GRAHAM predicts NORTHWESTERN
The Hoosiers defense doesn't hit you, they don't pressure you...and when your talent averages 2.3 stars across the board, toughness and gap integrity are the kind of things you wish existed. NW builds off its near miss v. State and beats on Indiana in a closer game than expected.
JON predicts NORTHWESTERN
I don't get it. The Wildcats take a Top 5 Michigan State team to the wire last week, and people still are going "back and forth" on this game. Neither defense may be very good, but Northwestern has a group of well-coached players capable of battling with the upper echelon of the conference. I like Indiana and the improvements Bill Lynch has made but they're nowhere near Pat Fitzgerald's club. Take the team that had the Spartans down by 17.
Odds are...Northwestern - 3
2. No. 5 MICHIGAN STATE at No. 18 IOWA, 3:30 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
GRAHAM predicts IOWA
I can envision so many damn things happening in Iowa City. But I'm not the person to ask here. Graham's big game track record this year:
Wisky@MSU. Graham picks Wisky: wrong.
OSU@Wisky. Graham picks OSU: wrong.
Wisky@Iowa. Graham picks Iowa: wrong.
So I'll just throw a personal hail mary here and pick Iowa to win a tight one. I just can't imagine the Spartans going undefeated.
JON predicts IOWA
In what's becoming a weekly tradition in league play here we are faced with another gigantic matchup with Rose Bowl implications. A lot has been made about Vegas' lack of confidence in the scrappy Spartans. One oddsmaker even referred to them as "fool's gold." Meanwhile, fans talk about a magical, ephemeral quality to the season. What's the problem? It's that Michigan State isn't dominating like a Top 5 team. Except for their win over Michigan, the Spartans have a disconcerting habit of having to call risky plays to escape with victories late in the fourth quarter. Although I love the team's attitude, I side with the MSM on this one. The Spartans are playing on the road against an extremely experienced Iowa team that's still sore over forfeiting a chance at the Big Ten title last week. The Hawks will be out for blood and their defense will keep Kirk Cousins in check for long enough to put together a first half lead. The crowd will stay in the game and make calling plays miserable for the Spartans in the second half. And just when you thought the Big Ten race couldn't get any more interesting...
Odds are...
Iowa - 4
3. No. 6 MISSOURI at No. 14 NEBRASKA, 3:30 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
GRAHAM predicts NEBRASKA
Hardest game to pick this week. Sure, Mizzou is undefeated and looking like one of those rare "complete" teams. But Nebraska's homefield advantage and explosive runners didn't magically disappear after the loss to Texas. I'm waiting for Mizzou's quick pass offense to fall apart one week, with aggressive corners jumping routes and interior linemen waiting eagerly for those slow developing draws. This is the week - Nebraska wins at home.
JON predicts MISSOURI
No offense to Michigan State fans, but for me this is the hardest pick of the week by far. On one hand Nebraska has a more disciplined defense than the skinny Oklahoma unit the Tigers moved the ball on at will last week. On the other their best win is over an overrated Oklahoma State squad and the Cornhuskers showed they're anything but invincible at home two weeks ago when Texas came to town. I'm going against my gut and picking a Missouri team that's as confident as it's ever been after beating up Boomer Sooner. Aldon Smith gets in Taylor Martinez's face, Blaine Gabbert spreads the ball all over the field, and the Tigers control their own destiny in the Big 12 North.
Odds are...Nebraska - 7.5
4. No. 25 BAYLOR at TEXAS, 7:00 p.m. (FSN)
GRAHAM predicts BAYLOR
Wow, who knew this would be such a closely contested matchup. I have this vague feeling that this would be like Indiana going to play OSU in the Shoe...and the Hoosiers were favored. Major, major weirdness. I'll buy the hype, plus I bet Jon sticks with the bluebloods. Baylor wins on the road and OMG Hot Texas Girl Gif continues her run of Internet dominance. (Google OMG Hot Texas Girl btw, it's worth it. And the reason she's so popular is that she's good looking enough to be a hottie, but not hot enough to be unattainable. Ah, college.)
JON predicts TEXAS
Betcha never thought you'd see this matchup on the OPC. But Texas' inconsistency and Baylor's opportunistic play have made this a game worth prognosticating. I could go on at length about the Longhorn's offensive ineptitude, but at the end of the day I think a full week of enduring Mack Brown's wrath has scared the steers straight. Texas plays like Texas, and there's nothing the state legislature can do about it.
Odds are...
5. MICHIGAN at PENN STATE, 8:00 p.m. (ESPN)
GRAHAM predicts MICHIGAN
The Wolverines win on the road, as PSU's injury troubles become too much too handle. I don't expect anyone to really stop anyone, so bet the over also.
JON predicts MICHIGAN
It's one thing to play a true freshman quarterback. It's another thing to play the guy behind your true freshman quarterback. The Wolverines emerge from the bye week healthy and confident and get the win in Happy Valley.
Odds are...
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Comments
Northwestern – Based on whole-season results, I don’t think they’re very good, but Indiana is worse. The Hoosier defense is just bad enough that the Wildcats escape.
MSU – I went with the “home favorite getting the upset point” line last week. We all saw how well that worked. MSU’s beaten the spread every Big Ten game, and I think they pull off a nailbiter.
Nebraska – This is eerily similar to the MSU-Iowa game, except this is Missouri’s letdown game after beating Oklahoma, whereas last week was MSU’s trap game.
Texas – I have no clue, therefore go with the upset point. (Wait, that’s Texas? Where am I?)
Michigan – We saw how well playing Nick Sheridan worked for Michigan last year. Now they get to play against his functional equivalent.
Northwestern — (I agree Jon: the fact people are waffling on this game is absurd. Michigan beat IU by a late TD. Northwestern’s defense is light years better than Michigan’s, they have a more accurate QB, their running game is improving, their team is the best in the Big Ten on the road the past 2 years (10 road wins since 2008)….and they’re getting NU when NU/Fitz is angry after letting MSU escape. Northwestern by 2 TDs, at least, to cement bowl eligibility.)
MSU — (don’t ask me how, but Cousins figures a way to make it happen)
Mizzou
Texas
Michigan
Go It!
Northwestern
Iowa
Nebraska
Texas
Michigan (Penn State gets to six wins with the games against the Cats and Hoosiers)
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
Picks
Northwestern
MSU
Nebraska
Texas
Penn State
. . . the odds for the Michigan – Penn State game are Auburn – 4.5? Neither team has been stellar this year, but I don’t think Auburn’s gonna beat Ole Miss so bad that they can claim victory in happy valley too.
Whoops.
Fixed.
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Jonathan Franz on Oct 29, 2010 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions
In hind sight
something like “Michigan’s D might be that bad” would’ve been funnier than the epic blow-out joke I tried to make. I’ll do better next time.
Well then.
Northwestern
MSU
Missouri
Baylor
Penn State
Trail Blazers atop the Northwest at 2-0!
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 29, 2010 10:13 AM CDT reply actions
NU
Iowa
Nebraska
Texas
Michigan
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
"Turner, at midcourt...inside it, at the buzzer, GOT IT!!!!"
We're the Big Ten, who the F@*# are YOU??!?!?!
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by Andrew Tolliver on Oct 29, 2010 10:17 AM CDT reply actions
Penn State is one-upping what you said, Jon.
They’re actually starting the guy behind the guy behind Bolden… Former walk-on, Brett Favre wannabe (in style, not phone habits) Matt McGloin.
jNU
Iowa
Missouri
Texas
PSU (McGloin despite them)
No kidding. That has to be some kind of a record.
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Jonathan Franz on Oct 29, 2010 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
The 2004 Penn State team holds that record.
I think they went through 4 QBs that season…
Trail Blazers atop the Northwest at 2-0!
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 29, 2010 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Indiana
Iowa
Missouri
Baylor
Michigan
"You don't become a Hawkeye fan, You're born with Black and Gold in your veins." - Me
by BStylin Hawkye on Oct 29, 2010 10:31 AM CDT reply actions
Northwestern- Fitz is just too good of a coach to lose to a team without any defense
Iowa- What can I say, I am a little biased, despite Graham cursing us with his pick.
Nebraska- two words: home field advantage
Texas- a team full of talent trumps one player with talent
Michigan- If it weren’t for all the injuries, i would say the same thing as the Baylor-Texas game
This week's picks:
Nothing too shocking:
Northwestern
Iowa
Nebraska
Texas
Michigan
Courting mediocrity since 1964.
by lakeeriemonstar on Oct 29, 2010 10:32 AM CDT reply actions
Still hating on MSU I see...
Northwestern
Spartans
Nebraska
Texas
Penn State
http://tailgateandcover.wordpress.com/
by tailgateandcover on Oct 29, 2010 10:58 AM CDT reply actions
Sorry I missed the last two weeks. I was off getting married.
Northwestern
Michigan State
Missouri
Texas
Michigan
That is sooooo not funny - Maize N Brew Dave
hey!
congratulations. Now I suggest you let your marriage follow more of a “leave it to beaver” ideal than a “Ace Rothstein and Sharon Stone in Casino” kind of vibe.
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Oct 29, 2010 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Congratulations!
Welcome back to the futility of the OPC.
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Jonathan Franz on Oct 29, 2010 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Northwestern-Count me among the frightened for this game. Northwestern always seems to play up (or down) to the competition and has lost to worse Indiana teams than this one before
MSU
Nebraska
Texas-upset points? yes please
Michigan-no idea.
Transitive Rankings: It's not who you beat, it's who they beat. Post Week 8: Big Ten and all FBS
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
Northwestern always seems to play up (or down) to the competition and has lost to worse Indiana teams than this one before
Such as a terrible 2008 game that shall never be mentioned again?
Trail Blazers atop the Northwest at 2-0!
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 29, 2010 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Northwestern
Iowa
Mizzou
Baylor
Michigan
by RodgersHasAHose on Oct 29, 2010 11:09 AM CDT reply actions
Indiana - Jon, NU still lost to MSU. They also lost to Purude, and very nearly to Minny and Vandy. I say this week, IU plays well at home and has more fuel left in the tank than the Cats.
Iowa - I’m with the rest: Sparty is good, but not undefeatedly good. Their comeuppance is here.
Missouri - The Big10 dumped girl-next-door Missouri for hot-babe Nebraska in front of everyone, and the Tigers are OMG-PISSED. They have the more complete package, they have something to prove, and they hate-stomp-RAGE against Nebraska. (Hope I’m wrong, since I’d love to see NU as champs of something on their way into the Big10.)
Texas - Not buying that Texas is so far gone as to drop this one.
Michigan - As far as strengths vs. weaknesses, this is the best matchup of the year for the Wolverines.
I really effed myself last week....
….was on the road all day Friday, and too hungover to remember to get my picks in Saturday morning, so I dropped from 3rd to 17th. Ouch!
Northwestern
MSU
Nebraska
Texas
Michigan
The OPC
Is just like the FBS regular season. Every week counts.
The question now is, will you come back like a one-loss SEC team?
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Jonathan Franz on Oct 29, 2010 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
No
he’ll get stunned in the conference championship and get pwned by a Big Ten team in the Capital One.
Trail Blazers atop the Northwest at 2-0!
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 29, 2010 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Tough Week
Northwestern
MSU
Nebraska
Texas
Michigan
by RickTheBloggerMartel on Oct 29, 2010 11:25 AM CDT reply actions
I could go 5-0 or 0-5 just as easily....This entire year is just weird.
Northwestern
MSU
Nebraska
Baylor
Michigan
I hope I'm not perfect again this week.
jNWU
Sparty
Huskers
Baylor? (I hardly knew her!)
Michigan
by Yabbs on Oct 29, 2010 11:53 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
1. Northwestern – Persa has a field day
2. Iowa – I’d love for Mich St to pull this out and go unbeaten, but I picked this to be one of two Mich St losses before the season (NW as the other – oops), plus I could use the bonus point for taking the home team.
3. Nebraska – Another letdown Saturday perhaps? I think Missouri could win this game, but the chance to pick up another bonus point on a home ranked team is too tough to pass on.
4. Baylor – I am shocked I am picking Baylor on the road, especially at Texas.
5. Michigan – Another road team that I am hesitant on, but I just don’t see Penn St scoring enough to stay in this one.
This week I either move into the Top 5, or crash and burn
well
oregon will win.
and I wanted to muddy the water with tough picks…
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Oct 29, 2010 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Desperate times call for a return to sanity
Northwestern
Michigan State
Nebraska
Texas
Michigan
The Daily Norseman
Off Tackle Empire
SB Nation Minnesota
"A parent's only as good as their dumbest kid. If one wins a Nobel Prize but the other gets robbed by a hooker, you failed."
"Pull your 84 jerseys out, man. I think this is going to be a fun ride." Randy Moss, WR, Minnesota Vikings
There are absolutely no easy picks up there. Here goes nothing:
Northwestern — Sure, I guess. Indiana could easily have a win over Michigan, Northwestern could easily have a win over Michigan State. Michigan State > Michigan. That’s all the logic that’s going into this.
Iowa — Iowa is better than a 3 loss team at this point in the season, and either of their losses could’ve easily gone the other way against good teams. Michigan State almost lost to an atrocious ND team and a rebuilding Northwestern team. Though MSU may very well win, I’m going with equilibrium being reached
Nebraska — Both teams have advantages. I’m going with the home team.
Baylor — Baylor beat a decent-if-no-better-than-that Kansas State team last week. Texas lost to Iowa State at home. Though I still see this one being very close, their most recent performances speak volumes.
Penn State — Statistically, if you just consider the combination of all stats minus red zone stats, Penn State has been the clearly superior team over the course of the season. (See BSD’s “by the numbers” for the proof). Once red zone stats are considered, it looks like a clear Michigan advantage. Once schedules are considered, it looks like a PSU advantage. Penn State is injured, Michigan is less injured. Advantage back to Michigan? Beats me. Wouldn’t surprise me if either team won by 20. I’m picking the home team and the team not coached by RichRod.
Can you feel a little love? Dream on; dream on
these are tough this week
IU
MSU
‘Huskers
Baylor
PSU (I don’t have a good feeling about this one for my Nittany Lions…)
Beat the Gophers
Last two weeks:
2 then 6. I’m only consistent with my inconsistency.
This week scares the stuffing out of me.
Like a UM Hoops player after losing to MSU, “man, I don’t even want to play no more.”
Nortwestern
MSU
Nebraska
Baylor
Michigan
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Oct 29, 2010 2:25 PM CDT reply actions
Hmmm
NU (win in person!)
Iowa
Mizzou
Baylor
Blue
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
by Hilary Lee on Oct 29, 2010 2:41 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Back on the horse
Northwestern- The Cats sometimes find a way to lose games they should win. Indiana usually finds a way to lose games, period.
Iowa- Sparty magic would have run out last week had Northwestern not been determined to shoot itself in the foot. This week they run into a swarm of pissed-off bumblebees.
Nebraska- Ok, Mizzou Showed Me last week. Now Show Me again.
Texas- They play football at Baylor? Really?
Penn State- My law school roomie (a Penn State grad) wanted to go to this game instead of meeting me for next week’s Penn-State/Northwestern game. I hope he made the right choice.
I need a good week.
Northwestern
Iowa
Nebraska
Texas
Michigan
Hmm.
Northwestern
Iowa
Nebraska
Texas
Michigan
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
Northwestern- By just a little.
Iowa- Playing angry they’ll wake Sparty up.
Nebraska- They win and pull ahead for the Conf. Title game
Texas- A loss here will get you a one way ticket to a shallow hole on the back 40 of a ranch somewhere.
Michigan-I’d like to be wrong here, however most of the staff over at BSD agree with me.
It's a stigma you carry for 364 days until you get a chance to remove it, and get that blemish off your soul.
We go Ho' Beepo ?
Picks
Northwestern- Any functioning offense should beat Indiana’s Defense, yet Chappel might come out hot. Also Northwestern did drop one to a beat Purdue team. But Northwestern will light it up.
MSU- WHY AM I PICK MSU!!!! I guess I want to believe they are on a mission from God.
Mizzou- I think goodbye presents are going to be the norm for Nebraska every so often and here is another one.
Baylor- Maybe playing for the Big 12 Title
Michigan- Rich Rod will try to find a way to lose it, but Penn State is so up in the air right now.
STOP MAKING ME PICK PENN STATE GAMES
I’m always too nervous…
Northwestern
Michigan State
Mizzou
Texas
Penn State (with both fingers crossed)
Joe Paterno is my adopted grandfather.
Nittany Lion Love,
Meredith
by PaternosGranddaughter on Oct 29, 2010 8:30 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Missed last week. But I was already toast anyway.
NORTHWESTERN over Indiana
IOWA over Michigan State
NEBRASKA over Missouri
TEXAS over Baylor
MICHIGAN over Penn State
by Findlay Buckeye on Oct 29, 2010 9:24 PM CDT reply actions
Need to make up some ground after I missed last time
Northwestern
Iowa
Nebraska
Texas
Michigan
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On, Wisconsin!
A Home Team Sandwich
Northwestern
Iowa
Nebraska
Texas
Michigan
by Ski U Mah Gopher on Oct 29, 2010 11:02 PM CDT reply actions
dead last
northwestern
michigan state
nebraska
baylor
penn state
JoePa – coaching PSU 140 Characters at a time
Northwestern
Michigan State
Nebraska
Baylor
Michigan
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
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