The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 11
by Jonathan Franz on Nov 12, 2010 10:17 AM CST
in Obligatory Predictions Competition
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1. No. 13 IOWA at NORTHWESTERN, 12:00 p.m. ESPN (11/12)
GRAHAM predicts IOWA
Why is Iowa a 10 point favorite on the road? Two reasons: It's not really a road game, plus the Wildcats' toughness has come into question during their losses to MSU and Penn State. I follow the Vegas crowd and predict that Iowa will finally break its losing streak.
JON predicts IOWA
Iowa has been a bit two-faced this season, playing through both 20 point halftime deficits (at Arizona) and 30 point leads (Michigan State). Still, nothing was more surprising than last week's lackluster outing in Indiana, where the Hawks settled for four field goals in five trips into the red zone in a tepid 18-13 win over the Hoosiers. The good news? Northwestern is also coming off arguably its worst two quarters of the season, giving up 35 unanswered points to Penn State after taking a 21-0 lead. Iowa's strengths and knack for the play action matches up nicely with Northwestern's spaghetti secondary. I think they break Pat Fitzgerald's spell.
Odds are...Iowa - 10
Big Ten Portal* says "Kirk Ferentz is 1-3 ATS vs Pat Fitzgerald, and all 4 contests have gone UNDER."
2. MICHIGAN at PURDUE, 12:00 p.m. Big Ten Network (11/12)
GRAHAM predicts MICHIGAN
Apparently this is Road Favorites Week. Oh well, I don't blink for a second picking Michigan. The offense is humming under either quarterback and that should be enough to overcome the defensive deficiencies. Michigan wins because of its spread offense, not because of its FCS Defense.
JON predicts MICHIGAN
Purdue has a history of containing running quarterbacks, but Michigan has scored 28 points on everyone this season save for Michigan State. The key to this game is how Purdue's offense performs. If they can move the ball consistently in all four quarters, it will become a possession contest. The problem is I have yet to see the Boilers turn in a 60 minute effort -- especially while fighting injuries and personnel upheaval. I like Michigan to build on its momentum from last week, although I wouldn't be surprised if this one went the other way.
Odds are...
Straight up.
Big Ten Portal says "Rich Rodriguez is 3-18 and 0-5 this season ATS in Big Ten games. Danny Hope is 0-3 ATS in his last 3 Big Ten games, and Purdue is down to their 4th string QB. Something has to give."
3. No. 14 UTAH at NOTRE DAME, 2:30 p.m. NBC (11 /12)
GRAHAM predicts UTAH
In our minds, and in our minds only, ND is a favorite when playing on the hallowed ground of South Bend. In reality, the crowd is deathly quiet and the Irish haven't played especially well at home this year (3-3). I think Utah beats ND and their backup QB on the road.
JON predicts UTAH
Sure it's tempting to pick the upset. After all, the Utes' most quality win is over Air Force, and they were positively dismembered last week at home by TCU. But think about what you're really getting with the Domers: A team that's lost its last 11 games to ranked opponents. A team that's starting a true freshman quarterback (a guy who threw three interceptions against Tulsa). A diluted home field advantage. A soggy defense. Still like this Irish? Me neither.
Odds are...Utah - 4Big Ten Portal says "The Utes are 6-1 ATS this year when listed as a favorite, and they're 8-1 ATS since 2008 against teams with losing records. Meanwhile, the Irish are running out of healthy skill players."
4. PENN STATE at No. 9 OHIO STATE, 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN (11/12)
GRAHAM predicts OHIO STATE
Thank God for a home favorite, although Penn State is running the ball with real purpose of late, something that may inspire one of our PSU readers to go for the upset points. I said this on Slow States: I have a vision of this game being close in the third quarter when McGloin rolls out and gets planted while throwing a pick 6. Buckeyes by a touchdown or so.
JON predicts OHIO STATE
Joe Paterno says the Buckeyes are one of the Top 3 or 4 teams in the country, and I believe him...when they're healthy. The bad news for Jim Tressel is this team hasn't been one-hundred percent since Week 2. The good news is -- coming off a bye week -- they're as patched up and rested as they'll be for the rest of the regular season. The return of linebacker Ross Homan will help to solidify the front seven, setting the stage for a big day for Cameron Heyward. Routes that were open against Michigan and Northwestern won't be there for Matt McGloin. Meanwhile, Terrelle Pryor's knee is fresh enough to allow him to improvise a few key times on third down. It won't be a blowout, but it will be decisive.
Odds are...Ohio State - 17
Big Ten Portal says "Jim Tressel has won and covered 3 of the last 4 versus Joe Paterno, with 3 of 4 going UNDER."
5. No. 23 SOUTH CAROLINA at No. 22 FLORIDA, 7:15 p.m. ESPN (11/12)
GRAHAM predicts FLORIDA
The Gators are favored by a touchdown, but for once in this matchup's history, I have a feeling that the talent level on the field is similar. The defining factor? South Carolina is nicked up and Florida is picking up momentum. Gators roll in the Swamp.
JON predicts FLORIDA
OBrienSchofieldismyHero begged us not to pick any more games with USC East in them. I really apologize. This one is just too good to pass up. South Carolina hasn't been the same since its Week 5 victory over Alabama. Meanwhile, Florida's 3 quarterback system appears to be coming into its own. I'm taking the Gators at home against my better judgment.
Odds are...Florida - 7
Big Ten Portal says "Both teams are surprisingly strong on the OVER this year (SC 6-2, Florida 6-3). The Gators are 17-1 straight-up against the Gamecocks in their past 18 meetings, but just 9-9 ATS. South Carolina has managed just 114 rushing yards combined in their past two meetings versus Florida."
* Big Ten Portal is a website devoted to the culture and trends associated with following and betting Big Ten football. Each week their team provides recent and historic analysis so you have all the data you need to make your picks.
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Easy Week
Iowa
Michigan
Utah
Ohio State
Florida
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
Might not be pretty, but it goes like this..
Iowa
Michigan
Utah
Ohio State
Florida
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
Editor of The Cannon, a Columbus Blue Jackets Blog. Check us out!
by Andrew Tolliver on Nov 12, 2010 10:30 AM CST reply actions
I'm not winning anyway...
…so I’m going with my heart:
Northwestern - if we were doing this against the spread, I’d feel supremely confident in this pick. As it is, I pick my team because I believe in Fitz’s magic against the Hawkeyes….even while conceding that in reality, Iowa should probably win.
Michigan
Utah
Penn State – I’m nowhere near sold on OSU this year….
South Carolina – That Florida offense is horrific, and Spurrier wants some revenge.
i knew it!
I think about 9 out of our 10 NW readers pick the upset this week.
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Nov 12, 2010 10:40 AM CST up reply actions
Hey...
…when you’ve won 2 straight, 4 out of 5, and 8 out of 13….sometimes you just can’t ignore those trends. Throw in a full house at Ryan Field, it being Senior Day, etc….well, you can’t write off the upset. And since no money is involved, why not pick it?
I don’t think you’ll get any argument from NU fans, though, that through 9 games, Iowa has been a better team than Northwestern, or that Iowa should rightfully be favored to win.
We just hope Saturday turns out the way recent Iowa-NU games have….
Full house at Ryan Field
…have fun with that.
Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa
by Not Marv Cook on Nov 12, 2010 1:04 PM CST up reply actions
And 9 or 10 NW readers...
…is about 9 or ten times the number of Illini readers you have…
(yeah, that’s right….I wanna start the Illini smack talk in advance of next week’s AWESOME Wrigley game)
I'd say we aren't very vocal on here
because there is rarely any coverage given to the team.
When I was a kid, I didn't want to be a doctor or a fireman. I wanted to be Super Mario. It's the most literal pipe dream I've ever had.
We don't have an Illinois writer
and nobody has asked to join as one.
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
Probably...
…because this is a football blog. Illinois rarely resembles a football team.
Raise your hand if your team has been to a BCS bowl game
Oh, wait.
When I was a kid, I didn't want to be a doctor or a fireman. I wanted to be Super Mario. It's the most literal pipe dream I've ever had.
Raise your hand if your team got slaughtered in that BCS game
Oh wait.
Beat Northwestern and Michigan, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 14, 2010 10:35 PM CST up reply actions
I nominate CPT Hoolie to be the MSU connection on this blog.
Beat Northwestern and Michigan, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 15, 2010 7:44 PM CST up reply actions
Maybe more than three points this time, hooray!
Iowa
UM
Utah
tOSU (And now to go wash my mouth out)
Florida
I'll say:
Northwestern
Michigan
Utah
Ohio State
Florida
That is sooooo not funny - Maize N Brew Dave
Here's hoping i DON'T get a perfect week
Northwestern
Michigan
Utah
Ohio State
Florida
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
after a few weeks off
Iowa
Meat chicken
Utah
Ohio State
Head Ball Coach
When asked why he went for 5, Tate responded "..because I couldn't go for 6...".
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Nov 12, 2010 11:14 AM CST reply actions
It's Friday already?
Ioa- The Cats have shown flashes of brilliance, but have yet to put together an entire 60 minutes of quality effort.
Purdue- the 8-10 year old neighborhood soccer team could put up 30 on Mic higan’s defense.
Utah- if there’s any magic left for Our Lady, we’ll see it tomorrow. Or not.
Ohio State- the Buckeyes will provide a demonstration to Pat Fitzgerald on how to put away an inferior oppoent.
Florida- the drunk redneck rule didn’t work last week. But it will this week.
iowa-because northwestern has been overrated the entire season
michigan- big blue beat illinois, who beat purdue
utah-because rudy is one of the crappiest sports movies ever
ohio state
south carolina
When I was a kid, I didn't want to be a doctor or a fireman. I wanted to be Super Mario. It's the most literal pipe dream I've ever had.
Hm
Northwestern
Michigan
Utah
OSU
South Carolina
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
Picks
2 bad weeks in row…oh well.
Iowa- I want to see the big ten race muddy
Purdue- because I am a homer. And as Tiller would say, "If we had an early signing date, you wouldn’t have another outfit with a guy in a wizard hat selling snake oil get a guy at the last minute, but that’s what happened."
Utah- Notre Dame loses to Tulsa and you want me to believe they can challenge an angry Utah team. But I do feel bad for this class of seniors, they will go all 4 years without an above .500 regular season.
OSU- JoePa has magic but not this week.
South Carolina- Yeah I am getting tired of picking for this ADHD USC team, one week they look great the next they chasing butterflies. I mean you could of done Mizzou vs. KSU, if you want 2 ranked teams.
Picks
Iowa – presented without comment
Michigan – Purdue is just too banged up
Notre Dame – Utah is not good. I thought this was shown last week, but everyone is still picking them so, I guess not
Ohio State – Too tough at home.
Florida – Who has a more talented roster? Who has a better coach? Who is at home?
Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa
More talented rosters
do not necessarily = wins.
See 04 Penn State, 99 Ohio State, 04 Florida, 08 Illinois, and 05 Iowa.
Beat Northwestern, Michigan, and Indiana, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 12, 2010 5:01 PM CST up reply actions
I've followed a great week with a horrific week. Here's hoping for another great one:
Northwestern — Northwestern owns Iowa. Northwestern is at home. Northwestern has had a 2nd half lead or tie in 25 (!) straight games. After last week, the football gods owe Iowa a loss. I think Iowa has a much better team, but somehow, I just think it happens.
Michigan — Wait, am I actually picking RichRod to win a Big Ten road game? I guess I am. I don’t feel good about this, but Michigan has been the better team so far.
Utah — Notre Dame stinks. You won’t convince me that Utah, in spite of their ranking, is better than Penn State or several other unranked teams, but loses to rebuilding Navy and Tulsa teams are a new low for ND.
Penn State — cuz I just gotta, man. Strange historical note: OSU’s last two bye weeks during the Big Ten schedule: 2008 followed a loss to PSU, 2005 was followed by a loss to PSU.
South Carolina — Florida doesn’t beat competent teams, and South Carolina is at least competent. Also, Spurrier always has South Carolina playing above their talent level against Florida. Strictly based on talent, record, and schedules, I’d say it’s a toss up. Intangibles are with Spurrier.
I've got the brains. You've got the looks. Let's make lots of money.
Thanks for that strange historical note!
Joe Paterno is my adopted grandfather.
Nittany Lion Love,
Meredith
by PaternosGranddaughter on Nov 13, 2010 6:35 AM CST up reply actions
This contest was going so well for me....
…and then Week 5 happened. I’ve sucked ever since. But I’m a glutton for punishment, so here goes.
IOWA over Northwestern: Revenge is a dish best served on the shores of Lake Michigan.
MICHIGAN over Purdue: Yeah, I picked Michigan to win a Big Ten road game. I can’t believe it either. But Purdue is eye-gougingly bad this year.
UTAH over Notre Dame: Those puppets from “Stuffing the Passer” are going to have an awful lot that they want to forget about this year.
OHIO STATE over Penn State: OSU’s secondary is still a M*A*S*H unit, but it’s a huge leap up in quality over anything Matt McGloin has seen so far.
FLORIDA over South Carolina: Why? I don’t know. This is guaranteed to be wrong. I think I’ve missed every single SEC game pick I’ve made this entire season.
by Findlay Buckeye on Nov 12, 2010 1:53 PM CST reply actions
This year is upsidedown anyways so....
14 pts back w/ 3 weeks to go…..Guess I need some upsets so everyone else is wrong.
NW
Michigan
ND
Penn State
South Carolina
picks
Iowa
michigan
utah
osu
florida
by RickTheBloggerMartel on Nov 12, 2010 2:45 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Oy.
Looking forward to embarrassing myself and shaming my family yet again. My picks:
Iowa
Michigan
Utah
OSU
South Carolina
Courting mediocrity since 1964.
by lakeeriemonstar on Nov 12, 2010 2:47 PM CST reply actions
Trying to keep my lofty status
Iowa
Michigan
Utah
OSU
The real USC
by Ski U Mah Gopher on Nov 12, 2010 3:15 PM CST reply actions
Which one?
Beat Northwestern and Michigan, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 15, 2010 1:50 PM CST up reply actions
I realize that was a bit non specific but there are a few good ones down here
like…uh…and…um….what was the question again?
Well
Iowa
Michigan
Utah
OSU
Florida
The Daily Norseman
Off Tackle Empire
SB Nation Minnesota
"A parent's only as good as their dumbest kid. If one wins a Nobel Prize but the other gets robbed by a hooker, you failed."
Iowa
Purdue
Utah
Ohio State – JUST because they’re at home
Florida
http://tailgateandcover.wordpress.com/
by tailgateandcover on Nov 12, 2010 4:19 PM CST reply actions
Unrealistic projections to follow.
Northwestern - the unpossible happens. Fitzgerald uses up his magic dust before the Wisconsin game.
Purdue – I want Michigan’s offense suffering next week after this game. Purdue’s defense is struggling because Purdue’s offense is beyond awful. They’re not 04 Penn State caliber, but they are underrated.
Utah – ND is full of fail this year
Ohio State – Final remaining test before Iowa next week
South Carolina – The battle of who makes the most mistakes. Florida’s offense looks good against crappy teams. (open-ended question) Is South Carolina’s defense crappy?
Beat Northwestern, Michigan, and Indiana, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 12, 2010 4:59 PM CST reply actions
We were tied coming into this week...
We won’t be on Sunday.
These are some of the picks my heart wants me to make. My head says no.
Northwestern, Ohio State, and USC carried me.
And then Utah and Purdue blew it…
Beat Northwestern and Michigan, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 14, 2010 11:50 AM CST up reply actions
Since I'm unsure of how the secret special bonus points are included...
By my count we both got 3/5. Which would have been a tie.
However, because the Wildcats and Columbia Crazies were the lower ranked team…you’ll get 5 points while I will only receive 4 points since I picked the Palmetto Plague and not jNU.
Why on earth you would ever pick Iowa to beat Northwestern
is beyond me…
Consider the heart attack NU almost gave MSU fans everywhere…
Beat Northwestern and Michigan, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 15, 2010 2:01 PM CST up reply actions
Was a 9 the best possible score this week?
My 4 looks pretty crappy in comparison. Your 5 isn’t much better.
8 was the best possible score as follows:
NW-2 for upsetting ranked Iowa
UM-1 for a win
ND-2 for upsetting ranked Utah
OSU-1 for a win
SCar- 2 for upsetting higher ranked Fla
Somehow, cavalry21 got SEVEN...
John Veldhuis got 6, cjkanski also got 6, Hilary Lee got 6,dandarc got 6, Devon Torrence and Aaron Henry also got 6.
Beat Northwestern and Michigan, THEN I'll talk Wisconsin in the BCS. But not until that happens.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 15, 2010 1:58 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Going with gut feelings this week
Northwestern
Michigan
Utah
Ohio State
USC-East
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On, Wisconsin!
Iowa: Northwestern will likely make this closer than it should be, but I think the close call against Indiana woke Iowa up.
Michigan: They can not look ahead to Wisconsin.
Utah: The only thing against Utah here is that they are probably really down after getting blown out by TCU.
OSU: This will be closer than most would have thought a couple weeks ago, but it will be a two possession game.
Florida: Two mediocre, overrated teams play against each other. One mediocre, overrated team will win, and therefore become more overrated. One mediocre, overrated team will lose, and therefore become somewhat less overrated. In other words: toss-up.
Iowa – Northwestern mojo notwithstanding, Iowa is good and Northwestern is not. It’ll be closer than it should be, but Iowa wins.
Michigan – There’s one good unit in this entire game. Fortunately for Michigan, they have it.
Utah – Until the Irish beat a team with half a pulse, I’ll continue picking against them.
Ohio State – I’ll believe Penn State’s offensive renaissance when it comes against someone other than Michigan and Northwestern.
South Carolina – I have absolutely no idea, therefore take the upset point. Also, if a nontraditional champ is going to ever emerge from the East, this is the year, right?
Bradley-Terry ratings for college football and basketball
Because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
We'll see:
Iowa
Michigan
Mormons
OSU (In Happy Valley I take PSU…would love PSU to knock off OSU/OSU to knock off Iowa).
The infidels who tried to destroy our beloved Union.
After a royally crappy week, I move up to a tie for 2nd? Wow, just wow … crazy week.
1. Iowa – If they play anything close to last week, jNW wins by 10. But I suspect Iowa has gotten the blah game out a week early. Iowa wins by 9.
2. Michigan – hmmm another road choice. this one I feel more uncomfortable with tho. Won’t be shocked if Purdue scores left and right.
3. Utah – What is up with all these road choices? No way ND hangs with a bitter dejected Utah this week.
4. Ohio St - finally, a home game. Penn St has been playing better, but I think Ohio St has most of their kinks worked out and wins by 14.
5. Florida – tempted to take the road USCeast squad for the bonus points, but I think Florida finally has their Sh** it gear.
Iowa
Michgian
Utah
OSU
South Carolina
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Nov 13, 2010 1:20 AM CST reply actions
You already where I'm looking for upset points...
I know it’s a road game, so I think that will be the only factor, truthfully. This is the first game f Bama-Iowa-OSU that I feel could REALLY be an upset.
Iowa
Michigan
Utah
Penn State
South Carolina
Joe Paterno is my adopted grandfather.
Nittany Lion Love,
Meredith
by PaternosGranddaughter on Nov 13, 2010 6:39 AM CST reply actions
Northwestern
Purdue
Utah
Ohio State
Florida
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
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