FanPost

Big Ten Bradley-Terry Projections: Two Weeks Left


Previous projections: pre-conference, post-Week 5, post-Week 6, post-Week 7, post-Week 8, post-Week 9, three weeks left

Full national rankings: here

Well, that clarified things a bit. Iowa's usual inexplicable loss to Northwestern has left three teams ahead of the pack (though the chance of CHAOS! has increased - and there's still a theoretical chance of an ACC-style mess with a 5-to-7-team tie at 5-3). Six teams remain alive for the Rose Bowl, though two need the ultimate chaos scenario and some help from the BCS standings. The quest for dueling 0-8s is at an end, and shockingly it's Minnesota, not Indiana, who has gotten off the schneid. Elsewhere, Wisconsin issued a challenge to their basketball team (one that, at least in conference play, they likely will not meet), Penn State briefly threatened Ohio State before their freshman QB remembered he was a freshman playing at the Horseshoe, Bizarro Michigan's defense scored more touchdowns than it allowed, and Michigan State just sat back and watched the carnage.

Basic (W-L only) Method
Team BT WPct Average wins 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
MSU 0.9180 6.77 N/A 78.30% 20.79% 0.91% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Wisconsin 0.9193 6.68 N/A 70.31% 27.21% 2.48% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Ohio St 0.8999 6.44 N/A 51.68% 40.72% 7.60% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Iowa 0.8131 5.28 N/A N/A 31.06% 65.74% 3.20% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Penn St 0.7014 4.01 N/A N/A N/A 14.54% 72.11% 13.34% N/A N/A N/A
Northwestern 0.6263 3.66 N/A N/A N/A 6.84% 52.45% 40.71% N/A N/A N/A
Illinois 0.5949 3.47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 46.70% 53.30% N/A N/A N/A
Michigan 0.7321 3.43 N/A N/A N/A 4.51% 33.64% 61.85% N/A N/A N/A
Purdue 0.3839 2.63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.06% 57.11% 39.84% N/A N/A
Minnesota 0.1781 1.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.74% 95.26% N/A
Indiana 0.3114 0.58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.79% 44.62% 48.59%

 

OSU winning a game that was a reasonable threat and Iowa tripping up combine to greatly increase OSU's chances of finishing unbeaten. Meanwhile, that auto-win that was factored into Illinois's projected record last week? Yeah, that didn't so much happen. As a result, the Zookers tumble down the standings (but still project ahead of Michigan, who has a substantially worse chance of picking up a win in their remaining two games than Illinois does in their one).

This Week's Games: (projections, as always, ignore home field; I'm looking into adding home field adjustments to the system over the offseason but for now there are none)
Penn State v. Indiana @ Washington, DC (83.9%)
Purdue @ Michigan State (94.7%)
Wisconsin @ Michigan (80.7%)
Illinois @ Northwestern (Wrigley Field) (53.3%)
Ohio State @ Iowa (67.4%)

Bowl Eligibility:
Already eligible: MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, PSU, NW, Michigan
May become eligible:
Illinois (needs one win, plays NW and Fresno State): 77.37% chance (down from 99.64%)
Indiana (needs two wins, plays PSU and Purdue): 6.79% chance (down from 8.12%)
Purdue (needs two wins, plays MSU and Indiana): 3.06% chance (down from 12.84%)
Headed to the Queso Bowl: Minnesota

Conference Title and Rose Bowl Race:

Scenarios are broken out by the winning conference record. A mess at 5-3 is still possible if MSU, Wisconsin, and OSU all lose twice and Iowa loses to Minnesota. Michigan would join those four at 5-3, and PSU and Northwestern would also have a chance to join in if they beat Indiana and Illinois, respectively. In that case, Iowa and (if present) Penn State would be eliminated by their non-conference losses and the rest would progress to the BCS standings for tiebreakers. Similarly, in a four-way tie at 6-2 Iowa is eliminated on non-conference record before the BCS standings break the rest of the tie.

  MSU Rose Bowl: 38.26% Wisc Rose Bowl: 15.37% OSU Rose Bowl: 3.33% Iowa Rose Bowl: 0.17% Undetermined: 42.86%
7-1 (96.89%) MSU-Wisc (26.60%)
Outright (11.23%)
Wisc-OSU (7.88%)
Outright (7.37%)
Outright (3.33%) NONE MSU-Wisc-OSU (28.45%)
MSU-OSU (12.01%)
6-2 (3.11%) MSU-Wisc-Iowa (0.41%)
MSU-Wisc (0.02%)
Outright (1 in 53,900)
Wisc-OSU-Iowa (0.06%)
Wisc-OSU (0.04%)
Wisc-Iowa (0.02%)
Outright (1 in 112k)
Outright (1 in 26,200) Iowa-MSU-OSU (0.12%)
Iowa-MSU (0.04%)
Iowa-OSU (1 in 18,600)
Outright (1 in 61,200)
MSU-Wisc-Iowa-OSU (1.35%)
MSU-Wisc-OSU (0.96%)
MSU-OSU (0.09%)
5-3 (1 in 1.23M) NONE NONE NONE NONE 7-way (1 in 2.75M)
6-way w/ PSU (1 in 3.14M)
6-way w/ NW (1 in 14.3M)
5-way (1 in 16.3M)

 

As for how the BCS standings shake out: At 7-1 I can't imagine MSU jumping OSU or Wisconsin at this point. If it's between OSU and Wisconsin, last week I was of the opinion Ohio State probably jumps Wisconsin, but now I'm not so sure. The smoking crater where Indiana's football team used to be will leave quite the impression on voters, and their remaining uncommon game (Iowa and Northwestern) no longer looks like an incredibly large swing in OSU's favor for the computers. If Ohio State doesn't jump them this week, I don't think it will happen later. At 6-2 or 5-3, it's anyone's guess.

Margin-Aware Method

Team BT WPct Average wins 8-0 7-1 6-2 5-3 4-4 3-5 2-6 1-7 0-8
MSU 0.9444 6.87 N/A 86.92% 12.90% 0.18% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Wisconsin 0.9412 6.83 N/A 83.86% 15.58% 0.56% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Ohio St 0.9773 6.71 N/A 71.98% 26.84% 1.18% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Iowa 0.9327 5.23 N/A N/A 24.10% 75.13% 0.77% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Penn St 0.6937 3.97 N/A N/A N/A 9.97% 76.58% 13.44% N/A N/A N/A
Illinois 0.7505 3.79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 79.39% 20.61% N/A N/A N/A
Northwestern 0.4385 3.25 N/A N/A N/A 0.96% 23.35% 75.70% N/A N/A N/A
Michigan 0.6867 3.17 N/A N/A N/A 0.58% 15.72% 83.70% N/A N/A N/A
Purdue 0.2044 2.40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.58% 39.03% 60.39% N/A N/A
Minnesota 0.1247 1.01 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.02% 98.98% N/A
Indiana 0.2893 0.77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 9.34% 57.86% 32.80%

 

This projects an easier road for the top teams (this may be a sign that the win ratio exponent needs adjusting; it's based on last season's numbers, but the relative lack of upsets last year may have skewed it high), and also thinks much more highly of Illinois (for winning blowouts and losing relatively close games) and lowly of Northwestern (for playing nothing but close games). As a result, the Wrigley game flips from a toss-up to making Illinois nearly a 4:1 favorite.

This Week's Games:
Penn State v. Indiana @ Washington, DC (84.8%, -10.5)
Purdue @ Michigan State (98.5%, -26)
Wisconsin @ Michigan (88.0%, -12.5)
Illinois @ Northwestern (Wrigley Field) (79.4%, -8.5)
Ohio State @ Iowa (75.6%, -7)

Bowl Eligibility:
Already eligible: MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, PSU, NW, Michigan
May become eligible:
Illinois (needs one win, plays NW and Fresno State): 93.59% chance (down from 99.97%)
Indiana (needs two wins, plays PSU and Purdue): 9.34% chance (down from 12.60%)
Purdue (needs two wins, plays MSU and Indiana): 0.58% chance (down from 4.08%)
Headed to the Queso Bowl: Minnesota

Conference Title and Rose Bowl Race:

  MSU Rose Bowl: 24.37% Wisc Rose Bowl: 10.98% OSU Rose Bowl: 1.52% Iowa Rose Bowl: 0.02% Undetermined: 63.11%
7-1 (99.41%) MSU-Wisc (20.42%)
Outright (3.93%)
Wisc-OSU (7.90%)
Outright (3.07%)
Outright (1.52%) NONE MSU-Wisc-OSU (52.47%)
MSU-OSU (10.10%)
6-2 (0.59%) MSU-Wisc-Iowa (0.08%)
MSU-Wisc (1 in 415k)
Outright (1 in 11.5M)
Wisc-OSU-Iowa (1 in 15,550)
Wisc-OSU (1 in 91,400)
Wisc-Iowa (1 in 305k)
Outright (1 in 29.7M)
Outright (1 in 2.54M) Iowa-MSU-OSU (0.02%)
Iowa-MSU (1 in 118k)
Iowa-OSU (1 in 433k)
Outright (1 in 8.48M)
MSU-Wisc-Iowa-OSU (0.46%)
MSU-Wisc-OSU (0.08%)
MSU-OSU (1 in 35,500)
5-3 (1 in 827M) NONE NONE NONE NONE 6-way w/ PSU (1 in 1.23B)
7-way (1 in 4.73B)
5-way (1 in 6.83B)
6-way w/ NW (1 in 26.3B)

 

This method expects the three-way tie at the top to remain unbroken until the final BCS standings make the call.

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