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Big Ten Bradley-Terry Projections: Three Weeks To Go


Previous projections: pre-conference, post-Week 5, post-Week 6, post-Week 7, post-Week 8, post-Week 9

Full national rankings: here

With everything holding to form in games featuring the three one-loss teams that were in action, the four-way mess remains largely unaffected. Elsewhere, Michigan and Penn State cemented bowl berths, and Illinois and Purdue are eliminated from Rose Bowl contention (Michigan and Northwestern remain theoretically alive due to the possibility, albeit astoundingly unlikely, of a massive pile-up at 5-3; OSU would have to be involved as well for them to have any chance, else MSU would have a head-to-head sweep of them and possibly Wisconsin after the teams with a non-conference loss are removed). Penn State also has a path to the Rose Bowl at 6-2 should Iowa and Wisconsin both lose twice (they would have wins over both MSU and OSU for the head-to-head tiebreak, but they don't play Wisconsin and lost to Iowa, and they have to win the tiebreaker on head-to-head or their loss to Alabama would eliminate them).

Basic (W-L only) Method

TeamBT WPctAverage wins8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8
MSU 0.9276 6.78 N/A 78.47% 20.71% 0.82% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Wisconsin 0.9268 6.71 N/A 73.09% 24.73% 2.14% 0.05% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Iowa 0.8965 6.41 N/A 46.50% 47.96% 5.49% 0.05% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Ohio St 0.8865 5.95 N/A 25.86% 46.99% 23.55% 3.59% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Illinois 0.7062 4.66 N/A N/A N/A 67.45% 31.48% 1.07% N/A N/A N/A
Penn St 0.7340 4.29 N/A N/A 3.94% 30.14% 56.92% 9.00% N/A N/A N/A
Michigan 0.7348 3.26 N/A N/A N/A 3.84% 29.24% 55.83% 11.09% N/A N/A
Purdue 0.3832 2.79 N/A N/A N/A 0.48% 12.36% 53.22% 33.95% N/A N/A
Northwestern 0.5082 2.48 N/A N/A N/A 0.24% 5.55% 36.44% 57.77% N/A N/A
Indiana 0.3242 0.62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.24% 7.88% 45.57% 46.32%
Minnesota 0.0813 0.05 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.04% 4.49% 95.47%

 

Not much change at the top; most of what there is is due to the increase in Penn State's rating making OSU and MSU's schedules slightly more daunting. Despite the lower rating, the much easier finishing schedule for Illinois (who has games only against Minnesota and Northwestern remaining, while Penn State and Michigan both face two of the top four) keeps them ahead in the race for fifth.

Dueling 0-8s watch: 44.22% chance of Indiana and Minnesota both achieving perfect futility in conference play.

This week's games (home field does not affect the projections):
Minnesota @ Illinois (96.5% to win)
Michigan @ Purdue (81.7%)
Iowa @ Northwestern (89.3%)
Indiana @ Wisconsin (96.3%)
Penn State @ Ohio State (73.9%)

Bowl eligibility:
Already eligible: MSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, OSU, PSU, Michigan, Northwestern
May become eligible:
Illinois (needs one win, also plays Fresno State): 99.64% chance to become eligible
Purdue (needs two wins): 12.84% chance to become eligible
Indiana (needs two wins): 8.12% chance to become eligible
Definitely headed for the Queso Bowl: Minnesota

Conference title and Rose Bowl race:

I'm going to dispense with simulation at this point and go with pure calculation. Exploring the two-loss chaos scenarios in further detail is still a royal mess; fortunately, they're unlikely. All of these percentages assume that the champion is 7-1 (except, of course, the chaos scenario).

MSU Rose Bowl: 48.36% Wisc Rose Bowl: 15.74% Iowa Rose Bowl: 12.51% OSU Rose Bowl: 1.50% Undetermined: 21.89%
MSU-Wisc-Iowa 26.67% Wisc-Iowa 7.32% Iowa-MSU 9.82% Outright 1.50% MSU-Wisc-OSU 14.83%
MSU-Wisc 15.85% Outright 4.35% Outright 2.69%     MSU-OSU 5.46%
Outright 5.84% Wisc-OSU 4.07%         CHAOS! 1.60%

 

Of the CHAOS! scenarios, all the exploration I've done is to determine Penn State's Rose Bowl odds (they must win out and hope Iowa and Wisconsin each lose twice): 1 in 20,900.

Margin-Aware Method

TeamBT WPctAverage wins8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8
MSU 0.9418 6.84 N/A 84.67% 15.12% 0.21% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Wisconsin 0.9251 6.78 N/A 79.44% 19.40% 1.14% 0.02% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Iowa 0.9641 6.45 N/A 46.18% 52.78% 1.04% 1 in 41,200 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Ohio St 0.9679 6.38 N/A 45.51% 47.64% 6.61% 0.24% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Illinois 0.8172 4.89 N/A N/A N/A 89.12% 10.73% 0.15% N/A N/A N/A
Penn St 0.7258 4.07 N/A N/A 0.96% 16.96% 69.86% 12.22% N/A N/A N/A
Michigan 0.6738 3.1 N/A N/A N/A 0.82% 17.00% 73.71% 8.46% N/A N/A
Purdue 0.1959 2.46 N/A N/A N/A 0.05% 4.03% 37.29% 58.63% N/A N/A
Northwestern 0.3179 2.15 N/A N/A N/A 1 in 17,100 0.55% 13.67% 85.78% N/A N/A
Indiana 0.3263 0.86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.38% 12.22% 60.17% 27.22%
Minnesota 0.0675 0.02 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 in 23,300 1.85% 98.14%

 

The order of the standings here is the same, but it's tighter at the top with Iowa and Ohio State being more highly rated. The second tier is more spread out, as Illinois is considered much stronger and Michigan a bit weaker. Indiana's near-upset of Iowa actually moved them up to 8th in the conference rating-wise, though their projected record remains 10th.

Dueling 0-8s watch: 26.71% chance; Indiana here is favored over Purdue, giving them by far their best hope of escaping ignominy. Minnesota ... not so much.

This week's games (home field does not affect the projections):
Minnesota @ Illinois (98.4%, -25.5)
Michigan @ Purdue (89.4%, -13)
Iowa @ Northwestern (98.3%, -25)
Indiana @ Wisconsin (96.2%, -20)
Penn State @ Ohio State (91.9%, -15)

Bowl eligibility:
Already eligible: MSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, OSU, PSU, Michigan, Northwestern
May become eligible:
Illinois (needs one win, also plays Fresno State): 99.97% chance to become eligible
Indiana (needs two wins): 12.60% chance to become eligible
Purdue (needs two wins): 4.08% chance to become eligible
Definitely headed for the Queso Bowl: Minnesota

Conference title and Rose Bowl race:

 

MSU Rose Bowl: 38.10% Wisc Rose Bowl: 12.17% Iowa Rose Bowl: 9.50% OSU Rose Bowl: 1.43% Undetermined: 38.79%
MSU-Wisc-Iowa 31.06% Wisc-Iowa 5.62% Iowa-MSU 8.04% Outright 1.43% MSU-Wisc-OSU 30.61%
MSU-Wisc 5.59% Wisc-OSU 5.54% Outright 1.46%     MSU-OSU 7.92%
Outright 1.45% Outright 1.01%         CHAOS! 0.26%

 

Penn State's Rose Bowl odds: 1 in 863,000.

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