What are the Odds? Ohio State's Chances of Winning the MNC
by Jonathan Franz on Feb 22, 2010 10:50 PM CST
in Ohio State
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Can he beat the odds again?
It wasn't long after Ohio State defeated Oregon in the Rose Bowl Game that commentators started speculating about the Buckeye's future. For many, 2010 has championship written all over it.
That got me thinking, what are the odds of a preseason favorite going all the way? Seventy-three years of data later, I have an answer -- and the results might surprise you.
But first, a few rules:
I decided to use the Associated Press Poll for two reasons: 1. It's been in continuous operation since 1936. That's six times longer than the Bowl Championship Standings. 2. The AP Poll is released sooner than the BCS Rankings each season. Since this survey is all about premature valuations, it makes since to use the earliest possible indicator.
Second, my analysis incorporates the first vote of any given season. Up to 1949, that means I'm using data from the first AP poll of the regular season, usually released in early October. After 1949, I'm using preseason polls. Although there's a big difference between qualitatively evaluating a team before it ever steps foot on the field, and quantitatively comparing it to other teams after competition has begun, my primary goal here is to profile our ability to estimate a team's potential. Because the majority of a team's regular schedule is in front of it in both cases, I'll consider the markers fair congeners.
Finally, while a good argument can be made that any team voted in the preseason (or first installment) of the rankings has a legitimate shot at a title, my focus is only on those teams ranked in the top three of either the Associated Press Preseason Poll or the first AP Poll of the regular season.
Ohio State has a good chance of appearing in the Top 3 when the 2010 preseason standings are released this August. So do Alabama and Boise State.
Let's get to the numbers...
Teams ranked third or better of the first edition of the AP Poll have won the national championship 30 times. To put that another way, one of the three teams that starts the season projected to win, show, or place, wins it all 41 percent of the time.
In case you're curious, here are the teams that have done it:
1936: Minnesota, 1937: Pittsburgh, 1941: Minnesota, 1942: Ohio State, 1943: Notre Dame, 1944: Army, 1945: Amry, 1946: Notre Dame, 1947: Notre Dame, 1949: Notre Dame, 1951: Tennessee, 1952: Michigan State, 1955: Oklahoma, 1956: Oklahoma, 1961: Alabama, 1971: Nebraska, 1974: Oklahoma, 1975: Oklahoma, 1977: Notre Dame, 1978: Alabama, 1979: Alabama, 1985: Oklahoma , 1991: Miami, 1993: Florida State, 1995: Nebraska, 1999: Florida State, 2001: Miami, 2004: USC, 2005: Texas, 2007: LSU
Source: AP Poll Archive
It's clear that voters have some idea of what they're doing when they crown preseason favorites. But this data doesn't tell us much about an individual team's chances of winning a national championship after starting the season ranked third or better. It's now important to isolate exactly where a team is placed.
No. 3
Teams ranked third in the first edition of the AP poll have won the national championship six times in 73 seasons. That means a team that starts the season at No. 3 has an 8.2 percent chance of winning a title.
No. 2
Teams ranked second in the first edition of the AP poll have won the national championship eight times in 73 seasons. That means a team that starts the season No. 2 has an 10.9 percent chance of winning a title.
No. 1
Teams ranked first in the initial edition of the AP poll have won the national championship sixteen times in 73 seasons. That means a team that starts the season No. 1 has an 21.9 percent chance of winning a title.
Clearly, it's good to be No. 1. But it's an uphill battle for any team at the top of the standings.
So while Ohio State may be a favorite to claim college football's greatest honor, history makes it clear that they're hardly predestined. And with Alabama and Boise State likely to place ahead of them in the preseason standings, the Buckeyes have less than a 10 percent chance of defending their honor.
Still, it's fun to dream...
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(whoops)
here’s what Vegas gives as the percent chance of selected teams winning it all in 2010-11:
Alabama: 28.5%
Boise State: 8.3%
Texas: 7.1%
Florida: 6.3%
Ohio State: 15.4%
Iowa: 5%
Penn State: 4%
Wisconsin: 2.5%
Michigan: 1.7%
Michigan State: 1%
Northwestern: 1%
Illinois: 1%
by Adam Tupitza on Feb 23, 2010 1:30 AM CST up reply actions
wow...
Iowa with the big 5%…hmm. And where, may I ask, is Indiana???
by Graham Filler on Feb 23, 2010 9:06 AM CST up reply actions
oversight, I'm sure.
Granted, I don't know what down it is..
I have to laugh at Illinois having a 1% chance
I’d put them at 1,000:1 odds, and feel pretty safe with that (considering the ’Zooker is still running that team).
They took the bar, the whole fucking bar!
by recoveringfratguy on Feb 23, 2010 1:37 PM CST up reply actions
Too bad you can't bet on teams you think won't win it all
Now that would be fun
by Adam Tupitza on Feb 25, 2010 3:15 AM CST up reply actions
I think they can do it.
If they have the same ball-hawking skills, and are able to make plays on defense (mostly everyone is back, no Gibson or Coleman(Who needs Russell)), Then I could see them at least making it there. I know it’s pre-determined to be Bama and Ohio State in the MNC, but if we get BSU, then if we win, it will seem like a cheap shot, but if we lose, it will go down as a huge upset in CFB History. We sort of want to face anyone besides Boise, because it puts us in an akward situation. This is all based on IF we get there.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Feb 23, 2010 5:52 AM CST reply actions
Last 10 years?
I think it would be even more interesting to compare the historical data to the post-BCS inception data. Only because the voters tend to blow at least 1 top 5 team, with an unknown coming in at the end to take the spot. In which case, one wonders whether the guess would be ’Bama, BSU, or the Bucks. Interesting.
I don't think Ohio State has any chance
until they actually play a game.
What isn’t known:
Who’s starting at FS?
Who’s starting at DE (either spot)
Can the offensive line protect Pryor, or will he get himself into disaster territory by scrambling like a madman into the D?
Can Pryor protect Pryor?
And finally:
Can Ohio State establish a stable running game with a feature back?
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 23, 2010 12:15 PM CST reply actions
Yes, for just about everyone.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 23, 2010 3:52 PM CST up reply actions
You never know, this could be the year IU rises and annihilates the entire conference...
It might not happen, but Iowa was on a hideous undefeated streak before Northwestern upended them at home. Ohio State finished them off a week later.
Ohio State could run the early table and collapse. Best examples? 99 Penn State and 2004 Wisconsin.
99 Penn State, undefeated at 9-0, possible national title berth coming. BOOM, 3 consecutive losses to Minnesota, Michigan, and MSU to fall out of Big Ten title contention. Nittany Lions won’t recover until 2005.
2004 Wisconsin, undefeated at 9-0, possible Big Ten title (No way on earth would the get the Nat’l title the way USC, Auburn or Oklahoma finished the year). BOOM. 3 straight losses to end the year to MSU (ugh), Iowa (NO!) and Georgia (again). This was AFTER they took out Ohio State in Columbus and Minnesota in Madison.
2009 Iowa won’t go in there, they shut out Minnesota and won a BCS game.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 23, 2010 3:58 PM CST up reply actions
Wisconsin's wins over Ohio State in 2003 and 2004
are the ONLY times a Big Ten team has beaten Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes in back to back seasons. The ONLY times. There is something to be said for consistency, isn’t there?
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 23, 2010 4:00 PM CST up reply actions
What need do we have to establish a stable running game with a feature back?
that is straight up retarded dude…..we have an entire stable of RB’s to work with. Feature backs are a thing of the past. Fresh legs are always in the game, and are a huge reason why we rush for 200+ a game.
Be sure and ‘jump around’ when the 4th quarter starts this year man, I’m sure we’ll only be up by 14-17 pts…..
Out of Hound since 2008
I agree with Ski
I would much rather have a stable, then having a feature back. You have to worry about injury, and about the future, asking yourself are these kids going to be ready to play by the time this back is gone?
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Feb 23, 2010 3:41 PM CST up reply actions
Well, where is the RB depth?
Saine backing up Herron? (Insert Highly Touted Freshman here) backing up Saine?
Ian, I don’t know if OSU’s RB depth is comparable to the McKnight/Gable/Johnson combination at USC in 07-08. It was murderous, but poor/miserable QB play doomed it against Stanford and Oregon in 2007 and Oregon State in 2008.
My point is Pryor needs help from his O-line and running backs if Ohio State is going to make a trip to the MNC.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 23, 2010 3:51 PM CST up reply actions
Ok, but
Our QB playing right now isn’t poor/miserable. We have, including Herron and Saine, Berry, Hyde, Hall, Martin, and now Smith. True, Martin is techinally a fullback, but really, Boren is a better blocking FB, and since Tressel uses the FB for only that, the majority of the time, he should be counted as a RB.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Feb 23, 2010 4:23 PM CST up reply actions
True, the QB play Pryor provides is just shaky
And you never know when he’ll just loft the ball for a beautiful INT. Pryor can throw a great deep ball, he just needs to make sure his OWN guy is more likely to catch it than the DB.
The best examples include a) Allen Langford outhustled Brian Robiskie on the huge INT just before the half in 2008 and b) 2009 Purdue. Do I really need to say anything else?
I was surprised when Pryor ripped the Nittany Lions to shreds in Beaver Stadium. Honestly…I NEVER saw that coming. Pryor has his moments; but to me they’ve almost always come when Herron/Saine ripped off good carry after good carry. The best examples were the Rose Bowl (of course) and 2009 Penn State.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 23, 2010 5:45 PM CST up reply actions
He's a running QB though,
So, he is just getting out of running first, throwing second. No excuses this year, but last year and in 2008, he was still leaning the ropes and techniqu of throwing.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Feb 23, 2010 6:01 PM CST up reply actions
Maybe Tressel will drill it into him
that he needs to throw more effectively. But he’s a lethal weapon without a really effective aim. He’ll improve, but where he is right now is exactly what you said, Ian: A running QB. Running QBs can mature over the course of their careers (see McNabbulous, Randall Cunningham and the late Steve McNair) into great passers.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 25, 2010 3:58 PM CST up reply actions
Gee, with the best defensive players on Ohio State gone?
Your confidence in Pryor is overwhelming. It really is.
Another question: Should Pryor go down, who would be his backup?
Was the feature back issue Chris Wells in 08 when he took whatever injury Tressel sidelined him against USC for? The ensuing disaster all but assured that Todd Boeckman would never be the starting QB at Ohio State again.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 23, 2010 3:47 PM CST up reply actions
That's the point though.
Now we don’t have a feature back. Your right on the front of the quarterback situation. Bauserman is like Boeckman 1.5..
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Feb 23, 2010 4:26 PM CST up reply actions
THAT is a little scary, isn't it?
Boeckman was the most effective when he had a consistent running threat. But when he didn’t have that threat to complement his mid-range passing, OSU’s offense effectively collapsed and died on the field against USC (but you could make the argument that USC’s lbs included four NFL draft selections, two in the first and one in the second). Either way, OSU had so many problems against USC in 08, not the least of which was a Rey Maualuga pick 6.
Still, they managed to find a solution of sorts next year (losing at home to a USC squad that would eventually meet its demise in the Pac 10 is NOT a solution, people) and won the conference outright with a great defense. Any questions?
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 25, 2010 3:52 PM CST up reply actions
It's an opinion.
I’d like to think this smoking room is above childish use of “retarded”.
"...there'll be some woman, maybe 45 or 50, she'll come up and give me a hug, and I'll give my wife a wink: See? I'm not that old." - Joe Paterno
by ReadingRambler on Feb 23, 2010 7:25 PM CST up reply actions
What's an opinion?
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Feb 23, 2010 8:00 PM CST up reply actions
Something best used with all caps and lies.
"...there'll be some woman, maybe 45 or 50, she'll come up and give me a hug, and I'll give my wife a wink: See? I'm not that old." - Joe Paterno
by ReadingRambler on Feb 23, 2010 8:15 PM CST up reply actions
I meant what are you talking about.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Feb 23, 2010 8:25 PM CST up reply actions
BuckeyeSki replying to OBrien's post regarding Ohio State's runningbacks.
"...there'll be some woman, maybe 45 or 50, she'll come up and give me a hug, and I'll give my wife a wink: See? I'm not that old." - Joe Paterno
by ReadingRambler on Feb 23, 2010 9:20 PM CST up reply actions
Would mentally challenged satisfy you, sir?
or is there some other accepted venacular?
Out of Hound since 2008
Hey, I thought it was unwarranted myself, but that's because you directed it at me, personally.
Congratulations, BuckeyeSki. It took no courage at all to say what you did.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 25, 2010 3:49 PM CST up reply actions
I just hope Ohio State is undefeated
when they arrive in Iowa City. Anything less is a recipe for Iowa disaster. Because, after all, Iowa will be undefeated that day. The pressure needs to be evenly distributed for Iowa to have any chance.
Seriously, Iowa has to find some offensive linemen…fast. As of now, Stanzi looks like he might have to line up in punt formation.
"I’m sick of following my dreams. I’m just going to ask them where they’re going and hook up with them later." M.H.
What's wrong with punt formation??
Remember, were the team that punts for points..
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Feb 23, 2010 2:41 PM CST up reply actions
Iowa will be undefeated?
Stanzi needs to learn not to throw touchdowns to the other team first.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 23, 2010 4:11 PM CST up reply actions
I hope Stanzi gets yanked after a game or two...
that way you can insert James Van Der Beek and they can switch to shots of his MILF mom between plays or whenever he gets sacked….
Out of Hound since 2008
You say that
but he’s undefeated when he throws one.
But yeah, that would be a really nice habit to break
It never gets to be easy
by chitownhawkeye on Feb 23, 2010 6:06 PM CST up reply actions
I think Iowa's defense should take the field and line up about ten yards behind the line so they can stop the defender from scoring every time Stanzi puts it up for grabs
but that’s just my idea.
Heck, Spievey (possible sic, sorry Hawkeye fans) and the rest of Iowa’s defense deserves a medal considering how many times Iowa’s offense put them out on the field and doing as well as they did.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 25, 2010 3:55 PM CST up reply actions
Stanzi proves that winning play at the QB position
often requires a Pick 6 or, in the case of our Wisconsin, an untimely fumble in our own territory. That way our defense gets to be even more heroic.
"I’m sick of following my dreams. I’m just going to ask them where they’re going and hook up with them later." M.H.
Stanzi's ability to throw pick 6's will NOT get him drafted, no matter how American he may be...
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 25, 2010 3:53 PM CST up reply actions
What's his record against Wisconsin?
(here’s a hint…2 and oh)
"I’m sick of following my dreams. I’m just going to ask them where they’re going and hook up with them later." M.H.
He won against a terrible Wisconsin team in 08. So did four other teams.
And this last year, Tolzien threw Iowa a free game…which they took to the BCS before Northwestern took Stanzi out. (I still have mixed feelings about this: It was both good riddance and Uh-oh, because OSU was next week and recent experience said Ohio State + BCS = disaster). Still, Stanzi returned when he needed to.
Still, he DOES have an ability to throw INTs to the other team that rivals Brett Farves…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Feb 26, 2010 4:18 PM CST up reply actions
Iowa has nekked Riley Reiff.
They’re good.
"...there'll be some woman, maybe 45 or 50, she'll come up and give me a hug, and I'll give my wife a wink: See? I'm not that old." - Joe Paterno
by ReadingRambler on Feb 23, 2010 7:28 PM CST up reply actions
Iowa's defense will carry them through the first few weeks.
After that, who knows? Maybe they’ll be ready.
"...there'll be some woman, maybe 45 or 50, she'll come up and give me a hug, and I'll give my wife a wink: See? I'm not that old." - Joe Paterno
by ReadingRambler on Feb 23, 2010 7:30 PM CST up reply actions
I love Riley
That man can play on my team any day. What a monsta.
by Graham Filler on Feb 23, 2010 10:42 PM CST up reply actions
He was better than Bulaga this year.
"...there'll be some woman, maybe 45 or 50, she'll come up and give me a hug, and I'll give my wife a wink: See? I'm not that old." - Joe Paterno
by ReadingRambler on Feb 24, 2010 9:03 AM CST up reply actions
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