Big Ten 2010 // Victory Lap Week - Big Ten's Greatest Weakness
by Jonathan Franz on Jun 2, 2010 2:21 AM CDT
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Yesterday we talked superlatives, now it's time to get critical. It shouldn't be a surprise that when it comes to picking on the Big Ten, there's plenty of fodder. In fact, no conference in America is as widely dismissed as this Midwestern juggernaut. For four straight years the Big Ten has been the butt of the BCS. Yet despite the nation's scorn, the league continues to be the richest and most influential in the sport.
So let's hear it
What is the Big Ten's Greatest Weakness?
jerdogg1
Even as we forge ahead into the second decade of the 2000's, the Big Ten's greatest weakness is unchanged: perception.
As a conference the Big Ten is still perceived as a one dimensional, traditional, stuffy, slow, physical entity that is unwilling to change. For those of us who are fans of this conference, we like it just fine that way, thank you very much. But for the rest of the country the Big Ten seems set in its ways.
While every other conference in the country becomes more and more inundated with west coast, spread, and spread-coast offenses, the Big Ten continues to find success with the formula that has driven us for years: off-tackle right, off-tackle left, three yards and a cloud of dust.
The way the rest of the country sees us.
And even when the spread has tried to rear its head into the Big Ten, it hasn't found much success (Minnesota, Michigan, and glimpses at Ohio State), and the reason for that is because despite changes on the offensive side of the ball, the formula for defensive domination hasn't changed a bit: big, physical linemen, backed by quick and physical LB's and DB's.
The Big Ten ended last year's Bowl Season on a remarkable high. There is a real risk that after the non-conference portion of the schedule is completed, people may be claiming that is was nothing but the luck of facing overrated Oregon, Georgia Tech, LSU, and Miami teams. That's right. All of the good press that came from the strong bowl season can quickly be undone with a bad non-conference showing. To start, let's be clear: the Big Ten is not playing a murderer's row of opponents. Most teams have only one game against a BCS team. That's what makes each so important.
Jacory Harris would love to keep the Big Ten in the woods.
Now, there will be no criticism if/when Penn State loses at preseason #1 Alabama. Likewise, everyone expects Minnesota to lose when they host USC. But if Iowa loses at Arizona (and Pac-10 road games have been a disaster for the league the past 10 years), Miami wins in Columbus, or Arizona State wins at Madison, there will be big rumblings. If Notre Dame wins against Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State (three of the four mid-level teams in the Big Ten in 2010) to start the season, there will be scoffs. If Northwestern drops its opener at Vanderbilt, there will be chants of SECSpeed. And if Michigan also drops its home opener against a UConn team (even though it may be the best team in the Big East), it will be ugly. We'd all like to think that the league turned a corner in January. But this slate could show us that it hasn't gotten out of this dark alley yet.
Law Buckeye
The numbers don't lie. For a conference that's clearly Top 2 in the hierarchy of the sport, we're still coming out of a competitive recession. Ask a casual fan with short term memory and the pall that's hovered over the Midwest since the 2006 BCS National Championship is a permanent geographic reality. After all, past results are perfect indicators of future performance. Right? Okay, so maybe college football is cyclical. But there's still that climate problem. Athletes like warm weather. The Big Ten is so a tundra. This stodgy old league can't keep up, can it?
I hope none of those "fair weather" Floridians were planning on making it to the next level.
Look, I'm tired of debating the whole "End of Days" scenario. No reasonable spectator can make a straight faced argument that the power pendulum isn't going to swing back North like it's been doing for the past 114 years. Do you honestly expect me to believe that the pecking order in a sport that's more volatile than the stock market is suddenly, immutably fixed? That the last century of chaos has merely been a epic game of musical chairs and on January 7th, 2006 the music stopped, and the Southeastern Conference -- with its mythical speed -- snagged the seat at the head of the table.
Seriously?
The way I see it the only thing this league is really suffering from is a lack of star power.
In 2009, the Big 12 had Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford (albeit temporarily), the SEC had Tim Tebow and Mark Ingram. These are national figures who consistently performed under pressure. In the Big Ten, our greatest celebrities were signal callers who frequently made bad decisions (Ricky Stanzi, Terrelle Pryor), running backs who never really broke into the national consciousness (John Clay, Evan Royster), and defensive linemen who played for sub 500 programs (Brandon Graham, Ryan Kerrigan). Although some might point to the recent drop off in premiere cru talent in Rust Belt recruiting, I think the real problem is we're still a league full of makeshift attacks. Let's face it: offense sells. Until one or two Big Ten programs become offensive powder kegs, the league will continue to suffer from its plodding perception.
Then again, isn't it defense that's supposed to win championships?
This week...
TUESDAY: Big Ten's Greatest Strength
WEDNESDAY: Big Ten's Greatest Weakness
THURSDAY: Eleven Games to Look Forward to in 2010
FRIDAY: Modern Rivals - What Rivalries Really Matter Today?
***
More Big Ten 2010...
Indiana | Michigan | Illinois | Minnesota | Purdue | Michigan State | Northwestern | Wisconsin | Penn State | Iowa | Ohio State
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Spread offense......................and no mention of
Purdue. Yeah, we haven’t had any success at all running the spread offense. Offense hasn’t really ever been our problem. When we had defense’s to match (98-2005) we were pretty good. Our issue is lack of defensive depth and being able to stop the run lately.
Don’t make the bad stereotype that all B10 teams run 3yd plays because that’s just not true.
Perception. Easy.
To the casual fan: Since the 2006 BCSCG, the B10 has dropped big game after big game, and even when they win the big game, its only because the other team had [injuries/issues/hemrhoids/whatever]
To us (the learned B10 fans): The perception is off, but not entirely unfounded. Sure OSU’s two BCSCG game losses in a row set the conference back, but I’ll give you two guesses as to which team has placed the most teams in the BCS since its start, but you’ll likely only need one – the B10. And therein lays a lesser part of the problem; when OSU and PSU both make the BCS (or OSU and Iowa), the remaining B10 teams have to “play up” to the opponent they face in their non-BCS bowls. So we’ll ultimately take a hit more often than not.
The key is obviously winning the big games in the regular season, but also dominating bowl season, at least as it relates to the casual fan. In 2009, OSU/Iowa/PSU/Wisky bitch slapped the perception that the B10 can’t win the biggie. Now we’ve got some momentum and some EPIC game in the regular season.
I’ll make a deal with you, Buckeyes and Gophers and Badgers et al – you root for PSU on 9/11 and I’ll return the favor when you play your big game (ironically also on 9/11 for the Buckeyes).
@EpicTripod
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Deal. Not sure if anyone in the Big 10 could root against PSU on that one.
by WCS on Jun 2, 2010 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions
you forgot weather, weather is a problem for every other conference
Bowl wins?
- Wiscy – cold, Miami can’t play sub 60 degrees nor should anyone expect this.
- PSU – did anyone see that field? LSU’s speed was shut down due to rain and field conditions
- Iowa – again, cold. All those hand offs in the triple option hurt the backs of GT’s hands and they were suffering instead of running.
- OSU – too sunny in the Rose Bowl. Oregon is very cloudy and the glare screwed up the zone read. If you remember their Arizona victory was played in AZ (sunny) but it was at night.
If the BIX can win the ones we should in the non-con season this year the perception will be closer to dead. Nothing can totally kill it. I will be pulling for BIX teams non-conference, PSU beating Alabama would be a sweet, healing elixir for the conference.
Adrian Clayborn is strong enough to pull the ears off a Gundark
by The Bacon Explosion on Jun 2, 2010 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions
Nothing can totally kill it.
The following would kill it: PSU wins, OSU wins, Wisky wins, and Minny wins BIG OOC games; the B10 wins BOTH BCS games (hoping one is a MNC, even if it has to be OSU again…sigh), and do relatively well against the rest of the bowl spread.
@EpicTripod
Black Shoe Diaries
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jun 2, 2010 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Northwestern
I can’t stress this enough. Northwestern HAS to win at Vanderbilt. I know that this is a tall order when looking at a program that has had an unbeaten non-conference schedule one time in the last ten years, but they need it this year. A top-half Big Ten team losing to the worst SEC squad (and by a healthy margin in 2010) will kill all discussion of the depth of the Big Ten.
http://www.rivalryesq.com/
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 2, 2010 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions
thirded
I'm sorry, Bruce. These boys get that syrup in 'em, they get all antsy in their pantsy. Captain O'Hagan
by psu in the w-b on Jun 2, 2010 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Of course Northwestern is going to win
Vanderbilt’s just a bunch of nerds.
by Batman42 on Jun 3, 2010 12:57 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
At least...
Terrelle Pryor is a Heisman favorite. Or something. But I don’t know. Should I be buying it?
For now
Things will change, one way or another, once the season starts. But other than Ingram there aren’t many others who (on paper) fit the general criteria for a Heisman winner (junior/senior returning skill player on a championship contender). I’d say Pryor would have little shot going against the Bradford/Tebow/McCoy juggernaut of the last few years, but they’re all gone.
Look at QBs across the country. Who else fits the mold? The best QBs would seem to be Ryan Mallet, Jake Locker and Andrew Luck, but they’re not likely to be on great teams. Kellen Moore? He has a shot, but the competition might hinder him if he struggles against VT. Craig McElroy needs to be more than a game manager to outshine Ingram. Maybe Landry Jones or Jacory Harris steps up, or someone completely out of the blue. But looking at that list, I can’t say that Pryor is any less credentialed than any of them.
IMO, an undefeated OSU (or a one loss OSU with good performances) should be enough to land him in the mix.
Not a chance.
Save the Rose Bowl, Pryor averages like six passes per game. And this year he’s supposed to get more passing and less running calls? That makes sense for your leading returning rusher. Unless he has twelve Rose Bowls, he just won’t have the stats for the Heisman voters. I’m not saying anyone on PSU will either, but Pryor will never live up to the Heisman hype (again, thats not saying he won’t win some games for OSU, but he won’t have the Colt Tebradford numbers required).
@EpicTripod
Black Shoe Diaries
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jun 2, 2010 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions
But will there be someone else putting up Colt Tebradford type numbers on a good enough team to warrant consideration?
Maybe, maybe not. Define "good enough."
Kellen Moore will be in the hype. Case Keenum will be the one that puts up ridiculous numbers, but what will Houston do? Ingram won’t repeat as Richardson gets more touches. Its a crapshoot now, but I don’t see anyone in the B10 putting up the necessary numbers that the Heisman warrants these days – its just how we play football anymore.
@EpicTripod
Black Shoe Diaries
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jun 2, 2010 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Probably top 5-10
The “good enough” tag was to exclude teams like Houston (knew I was forgetting someone), Stanford and Washington that will likely have at least 2-3 losses (all it takes in Keenum’s case is 1 loss) and wouldn’t be hanging around national title consideration.
I agree with what you’re saying, generally (Pryor isn’t going to put up ZOMG passing numbers), but the standard to win the Heisman trophy is based on the relative merits of performances that year. It doesn’t matter what Colt Tebradford did in prior years, because they’re not up for it this year and they won’t just ditch the Heisman for a year.
“Sorry, you guys aren’t as good as the past few years. Come back when you have some real contenders.”
In this vein, given what we know now and given what OSU is projected to do (and the help from pre-season hype), Pryor has to be considered.
(For the record, I don’t like Pryor at all. I’m not a fan of defending him. But it’s hard for me to argue that, as of the beginning of June, he doesn’t have some merit).
but the standard to win the Heisman trophy is based on the relative merits of performances that year. It doesn’t matter what Colt Tebradford did in prior years, because they’re not up for it this year and they won’t just ditch the Heisman for a year
Like communism, this is right on paper. But in reality, this couldn’t be further from the truth. Look at the past winners. They have increasingly become a list of gaudy stats by a high profile QB, with an RB sprinkled in there.
@EpicTripod
Black Shoe Diaries
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jun 2, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Numbers wise......
…….I think Kirk Cousins will be the statistical leader in the B10- he’s got a ton of weapons, and is gonna put up a lot of yards and TDs (not McCoy/Bradford/Keenum numbers, but big for the B10). But, MSU as a team won’t be good enough to justify a Heisman campaign for Cousins.
Agree. The Spartan receivers SHOULD be nasty.
@EpicTripod
Black Shoe Diaries
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jun 2, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
agreed
The man has a gun / But Sparty must win some games to get him some press. Obviously. Plus, Dantonio has traditionally been more conservative offensively. Even last year, when they were throwing really successfully, he would conservative in the red zone.
by Graham Filler on Jun 2, 2010 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm going to sound crazy
but numbers wise I think…Ben Chappel will be the statistical leader for the conference for two reasons:
1. He’s actually really good and will have a nice compliment of weapons and
2. His defense will be bad enough to get him on the field more than Cousins.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Jun 2, 2010 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions
probably
Except Indiana will inevitably not be able to run the ball, slowing that offense just enough to keep his stats down
by Graham Filler on Jun 2, 2010 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm biased;
They haven’t run the ball all that well against Iowa over the last decade and Iowa’s D is usually as stout as anyone’s. But as a Hawkeye, I have nightmares of James Hardy and Tandon Doss streaking down the field for scores against my team. The Hoosiers are a team that Iowa just has way too much trouble with for as bad a program as they are.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Jun 3, 2010 1:17 AM CDT up reply actions
At least we HAVE
a Quarterback that can run for Heisman this year.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Jun 2, 2010 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Sorry, no passing offense then.
You can’t really have that Heisman cake and eat it too. Look at Troy Smith…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 2, 2010 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
5 guys
From the B10 who could be in Heisman talk:
1. Terrelle Pryor — He’s a ridiculous, man-amongst-boys, LeBron James level athlete on what should be a great team. If he really did turn the corner in the Rose Bowl, we are all at his mercy.
2. Adrian Clayborn — He is that good. Suh was up there last year, why not Clayborn this year?
3. Kirk Cousins — Perhaps you didn’t expect to see him, but with the receivers MSU has and the bafflingly underachieving defense MSU has (forcing him to chuck the rock to keep MSU competitive), I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up with numbers that get him in Heisman talks.
4. Evan Royster — PSU’s O-line should, at the very least, be more consistent than last year’s line, and Royster is set to top PSU’s all time leading rushers list (take a look at PSU’s all time top 10; a lot of people on that list finished in the Heisman top 5). If Royster can get to 1500 yds and PSU wins 10+ regular season games (neither of which is out of the question), his name will get mentioned.
5. John Clay — Single handedly willed Wisconsin to 10 wins last year. He’s back, and so is the rest of the Wisconsin team. Like Royster, he probably needs 1500 yds on an 10+ win team to be in the discussion, but that is not out of the question.
No alarms and no surprises please.
As an MSU alum...
I’ve always thought that we don’t get our first Heisman until we win the crystal football. That’s the only way one of the Spartan football players receives enough national media attention to win it. (Obviously the Heisman is awarded before the “national championship game”, but I hope you get the point.)
Is it time to break out the 1997 National Championship Trophy yet, Graham?
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 2, 2010 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions
/doing my best to not channel an inner Patrick Bateman
by Graham Filler on Jun 2, 2010 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions
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