Summer Bowl Projections
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 29, 2010 4:30 AM CDT
in Bowl Projections
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PrintI hadn't planned on another set of bowl projections before the final pre-season projections. But then, USC went and got suspended. And then, the Big ten went and got Nebraska. And then, the Pac-10 went and got Utah and Colorado. And then the Dallas Football Classic finally drew a logo. And so there has been enough change that I think my projections need to shift as well.
Sharp, isn't it.
Before we start, in all of the hubbub about expansion, I don't know that anyone wrote about the winners and losers in the bowl business. And let's be clear, there were both.
The biggest winner is the BCS and bowl system. Four super-conferences would have made a playoff system almost a foregone conclusion. Six BCS conferences, and a Mountain West that is still going to be close to getting in, will muddy things enough to keep the status quo for a while. The Pizza Pizza Bowl is a big winner. When the Big Ten added an 8th slot (9th when the Big Ten sends two to the BCS), I said that the Big Ten would never fill it. One more team means a much better chance that they will. All of the Big Ten Bowls benefit from the addition of a national power with a big, traveling fan base.
The Big 12 Bowls are the big losers here. Nebraska brought butts to their seats and eyes to their broadcasts. Even worse, two fewer teams means that there is no way that the conference will be able to fill all of its slots in the future. The league has eight agreements (nine, if Texas and Oklahoma both go to the BCS). They won't fill all of those with only ten teams. That means that you shouldn't expect to see the Big Ten play a Big 12 team in the Dallas Football Classic. Nor should you expect many Big 12 teams in Yankee Stadium in the Pinstripe Bowl. Those two bowls are the biggest losers, as they'll now be picking from the remnants of MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt squads. The Holiday Bowl is losing out here, too. Lack of funding has pushed the bowl further down the Big 12's pecking order. But after 2010, it's going to get ugly. The Holiday Bowl, which had the third Big 12 pick in 2009, will have the 5th pick starting this year. If Texas and Oklahoma both go to the BCS, they'll have the 6th. Who will that be in 2011? Likely a 7-5 Missouri or Kansas State squad. Not exactly a big draw. One other set of losers: the mid-tier Big Ten teams. Nebraska, and it's national reputation and history of traveling will likely be chosen above Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois (and yes, Iowa) when the bowls have the choice.
Now on to the picks. Here are the RULES FOR 2010.
- The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors. (This isn't new)
- The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Sugar Bowl; 4) Orange Bowl; 5) Fiesta Bowl. (This is new)
- If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will be required to take a non-automatic qualifier. This will only be required of the Rose Bowl the first time it occurs over the next four years. (This is new and huge)
- The Gator Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Insight Bowl this year. It will rotate the other way next year. (This is new)
- For the full rules on BCS selections, look here.
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Here's the thing. You don't really expect the Big 12 to let Nebraska go undefeated now, do you? Not after they up and leave. If the conference will add a second in a championship game so that Texas can kick a field goal, you know that they'll find a way to see one of the 10 remaining teams (I.e. Texas or Oklahoma) wins the league this year. Just be ready for the screw job. It's coming at you, Big Red. And after that, one-loss SEC Champ Alabama gets their turn to face Ohio State. I forgot, how do the Buckeyes fare against the SEC? |
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I have no idea who will win the Pac-10. USC can't. Oregon cut their star quarterback...this feels like the kind of year when somebody has a big breakthrough. Maybe it's OSU. Maybe it's Cal, Stanford or Arizona. I think that UCLA and Washington are still a couple of years away, but I can't say that I would be shocked by them either. The Rose Bowl gets hit with the non-AQ clause in year one of the four year agreement. My guess is that even with a loss to Va. Tech, 11-1 Boise State still finishes as the highest non-AQ (and in the Top 12). That means that the Rose Bowl will have to take them. |
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The Sugar Bowl gets to replace Alabama with the first pick. This at large pick really comes down to the fact that I don't think that Florida wins the SEC East. If not Georgia, maybe it's (finally) the year that South Carolina breaks through. Either way, I think that Florida takes a (small) step back. Iowa is the bridesmaid again. They'll lose to Ohio State and one other game, but 10-2 gets them (and 40,000 black and yellow fans) to New Orleans. |
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I'm on the Florida State bandwagon. This is the year that they get it all working together. Nebraska will lose one Big 12 regular season game (probably to Texas) and the Big 12 Championship Game to Oklahoma. At least one of the losses will be suspicious. |
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Oklahoma wins the final Big 12 title. I'm suspecting that they drop at least one game en route, though. That puts them behind Alabama in the BCS standings. UConn? Really? Really. They were thisclose last season, losing five games by 15 total points. With West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh all debuting new QBs (and having to travel to Connecticut), I think that this is a Husky year. The Fiesta has last choice, and gets stuck with the Big East champ. |
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If it's Orlando, it must be Wisconsin. Since Urban Meyer has decided to stick around, Florida won't fall too far. Let's peg them at 9-3 in a reloading year. |
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Last year, I predicted 8-4 for Michigan and I was off by three games. I'm doing it again. South Carolina? This is probably Spurrier's last best chance to make something of the program. Unfortunately, all he can do is elevate them to the same level that Lou Holtz did. |
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Last year I predicted 8-4 for Penn State, and I was off by two games. I'm doing it again, with losses at Alabama, at Iowa, at Ohio State, and versus Michigan. It's not as shocking this year, is it? This is the 7th team out of the SEC (two in the BCS, Cap One, Outback, Cotton, Chik-Fil-A), so expect a 7-5 team. And no, I am not buying the Arkansas hype. |
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Purdue is going to be improved this year. 7-5 sounds about right. 7 or 8 wins will be the number for the Big 12 representative. I'm guessing that's the Cowboys. |
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Michigan State should be better than 7-5. Do you have confidence in them to prove that? I don't. Baylor, with a healthy Robert Griffin, finally gets to a bowl. |
DALLASFOOTBALLCLASSIC |
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Northwestern's defense prevents this team from being any better than 7-5. The Classic replaces the old Motor City Bowl slot, and is supposed to pit the Big Ten against either the Big 12 or a West Division team from Conference USA. 2010 sees a C-USA team. By 2011, it will be all but impossible for it to be a Big 12 team. Unless June Jones has SMU in the Liberty Bowl (as the C-USA Champion) expect the hometown Mustangs to christen this game |
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So we still have Detroit, huh? It's a new slot for the Motor City Bowl. It doesn't matter this year. It will be 2011 before the Big Ten sends a team to Detroit. The Sun Belt goes when the Big Ten can't. MTSU finally breaks through and takes the league. Troy gets to head North for this one. |
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Sadly, all 11 Big Ten squads won't make it to bowl games. Those that don't will be "On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (sponsored by Ro*Tel)." Indiana seems destined for a 4 or 5 win season. I just can't find the 6th win for them. Illinois is looking at 2-4 at the halfway point (losing to Mizzou, Ohio State, at Penn State, and at Michigan State). That means they'd need to win their home games against Purdue, Indiana, and Minnesota and sneak one road win against Fresno State, Michigan, or Northwestern. Possible? Sure. But would you bet on Ron Zook? Minnesota will be the worst team in the Big Ten. I see 1 Big Ten win for them - and that may be optimistic. |
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Good predictions.
It’s going to be a tough year, plenty of good games.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Jun 29, 2010 7:29 AM CDT reply actions
I think Indiana can sneak a sixth win somewhere
They have the easiest non-conference schedule of anyone. even they can go 4-0 against that slate. They get Michigan at home and have to go to Illinois. Those are their two best chances.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
Just stop for a second
and realize that you wrote that for Indiana to make a bowl game, they’ll have to beat Michigan. No, it’s not that far-fetched (especially after last year’s game), but think about that in the context of the history of the two programs, and it’s quite funny.
That said, I don’t think Michigan loses to Indiana. Not this year. Probably not this decade.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 29, 2010 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree it is unlikely
but in looking at their schedule, especially after essentially giving away that home game to Penn State, Illinois and Michigan are about the only teams I can see them having a chance of beating in the conference.
They aren’t winning at Ohio State or Wisconsin
They won’t beat Penn State int hat given up game.
Iowa could be tricky, especially after last year. They have a history of upsetting the Hawkeyes in Bloomington, but it is unlikely.
They haven’t been within a touchdown of Purdue at Ross-Ade in 14 years.
That leaves Northwestern, Michigan, and Illinois. If they can split those two home games a win at Illinois is not impossible.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
If by "history of upsetting the Hawkeyes in Bloomington" you mean
that happened once in the last decade. They beat them there in 2000 as well, but as Iowa was the worst team in the Big Ten that year that was definitely not an upset.
Have no fears Mr. Boiler. Iowa will remember the Hoosiers’ insolence of daring to lead the Hawkeyes by two touchdowns in Kinnick last year (before Stanzi went into Morphin’ Time and we scored like a thousand unanswered points in five minutes), and will thrash the lowly Hoosiers with no mercy. Bloomington will bleed that day.
by Third Generation Hawk on Jun 30, 2010 1:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Bama Hawkeye you´ve got on the blinders so hard it is a joke
…two hilarious parts of your post.
One, that you think Minnesota will be the worst team in the Big Ten. Your Gopher hatred is so overwhelming I actually take it as a backhanded compliment. The bizarre Hawkeye complex continues. Gophers have the toughest schedule of any team in the Big Ten (ranked 5th toughest in the nation).
Even with that no way the Gophers win less than 6 games. I would bet you absolutely anything on that. The D will be rock solid and the offense will be much better than you think. Gophers win 7 games. You can take that to the Bank.
Two, you think Iowa is going to get 2nd place in the Big Ten THat is adorable! It gives me no pleasure to say this but Wisconsin has your number this year. You don´t just replace 4 starters on the O-line including BB, and bounce back, especially with an interception prone QB.
Oh Ahli...
I’ve missed you so.
Minnesota does play a ridiculously hard schedule. That has a lot to do with my projection. They’ll lose to USC. They’ll beat South Dakota (hopefully in an easier game than they had with South Dakota State). They will have a rough time at MTSU, who is the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt. They should beat NIU. Let’s assume the best case scenario for the Gophers: 3-1.
Their home conference schedule includes visits from Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa. I see nothing in Minnesota that gives me any reason to believe that the Gophers can win any of those three games. Likewise, I’ve seen nothing that makes me think that Minnesota can win at Wisconsin. That’s four conference losses – five total. Under your promise of 7 wins, they would need to sweep the remaining games.
Minnesota will be at a talent and coaching disadvantage when they face Michigan State and Purdue. Plus, both games are on the road. I don’t think that Minnesota wins either of them – let alone both. The game at Illinois should be a beauty. I cannot wait for Zook and Brewster to coach with their jobs on the line. It’s a coin toss in my mind – home field makes me give the edge to the Illini. Northwestern comes to the Bank, and it is the easiest game (accounting for location and opponent) on the Gopher’s conference slate. I think that’s their win. Regardless, it’s a long hard road for the Gophers, who we lost saw losing to Iowa State, to get to seven wins.
If you want to say that Wisconsin will finish second in the Big Ten, I can see it. I think that they may be almost interchangeable at 2 and 3. I will add that Iowa returns two starters (Vandervelde and Reiff) to the O Line. It’s still the biggest worry, but not quite as dire as your post implies.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 29, 2010 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions
right back at ya, let´s tailgate before Floyd of Rosedale
Anyway,
First things first. I believe the Gophers win 7 games. However, if you re-read my post due to the murderous schedule I am only guaranteeing 6 wins.
I will agree that the Gophers definitely lose to this year´s national champ Ohio State, as well as probably lose to Iowa (although that one will be very close just like last year). Penn State I predict as a loss with serious upset potential. The D will be great as always. However, Penn State´s O-line is questionable and it is entirely possible the Nits will have the worst QB play in the Big Ten this year. They were banking on havin Pat Devlin this year. Their options are a walk on, a guy who plays worse than a walk on with no ability to throw the ball at all, or a true freshmen phenom. What are the odds Joe Pa goes to a true frosh in week 6? doubtful.
I would point out tha Minnesota beat both Michigan State and Purdue (the Purdue game wasn´t even close) last year. I would also point out that Mark Dantonio made a point after the game of saying that he was flat out outcoached by Brewster. Brewster has a great D coordinator, and I believe he has assembled a very solid coaching staff. Horton simplified the O, has a record of coaching up QBs, and the O-line is finally healthy after being riddled with injuries the last 2 years. Its easy to rip on a guy in Brewster in his first head coaching gig who made some gigantic mistakes early (implementing the spread with Mason players), but he has progressed both in his staff, and gameday decisions each season. Purdue is a mess, they had 20 players, including 10 starters miss all or most of spring ball. Their best Offensive player Bolden tore his ACL. I think they will finish 9th in the Big Ten. Zook makes Brewster look like Jim Tressel, and the Illini have a terrible D and a RS freshmen QB.
Also, Michigan State will be terrible (again) in the secondary and on the D-line. They got lit up like a christmas tree in the secondary last year (including by Weber to the tune of 416 yds and 5 TDs, and that as without Decker). Don´t think that´s gonna change.
I agree with you on the Northwestern win. They have too much to replace on D (especially in the secondary losing 3 all conferene caliber players), are breaking in a new QB, and it´s always easier to play Pat Fitz teams early in the year, before he miraculously finds ways to hide the athleticism gaps.
The Battle for Paul Bunyan´s Axe is almost always a very close game, and I think Wisconsin is vulnerable. They are going to really miss OB Scho and Maragos, and they have flat out terrible CBs. However, I can see why you pick that as a Gopher loss. I like that our O-coordinator knows them inside out however.
So I´ve got the Gophers going 3-1 OOC, with guaranteed conference wins over Northwestern, Illinois and Purdue. I think the Gophers win at least one out of 3 against Penn State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin (and I think they get 2 of those games).
Plus Lane Kiffin sucks at life and there´s always that off chance USC decides not to show up for a game that means nothing to them since they can´t go bowling.
Those flat out terrible CBs did a good job closing to everyone besides Decker.
You overestimate Minnesota. Seriously overestimate. Who’s going to take the reigns AFTER Weber graduates?
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 29, 2010 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, and the Gophers lost to Illinois last year. AT HOME.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 29, 2010 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Losing to 2009 Illinois = EPIC FAILURE!
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 29, 2010 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Fresno State tried to lose to them.
It just turned out to be impossible.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Jun 30, 2010 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Fresno State tried and failed.
Minnesota and Michigan, on the other hand, tried and succeeded.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 30, 2010 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm curious
So you see Wisconsin beating Iowa, but then losing to Minnesota? Fascinating.
Also, I’ll give you the Illinois game, but I’ll take the MSU game and toss up both the Purdue and jNW matchups. Also, you can have MTSU.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
didn´t predict a Gopher victory against Wisconsin...
I said I think they beat EITHER Penn State, Michigan State, or Wisconsin, with Michigan State being the most likely. The Gophers have owned the Spartans for a long time.
And yes, the Illinois game was horrific. However, Weber was in full out PTSD shell shock mode. A guy can only get hit so much in a season before a couple early knocks makes him play skittishly. With a (finally!) healthy offensive line I don´t anticipate that situation replicating itself in 2010.
And the 2009 Iowa Minnesota game was extremely competitive. The Gophers had the ball deep in Iowa territory several times. Perhaps you forgot the terrible in his hands TD drop by Da Jon McKnight in the first quarter? Or the multiple TOs deep in Hawkeye territory? He catches that ball it´s a whole different game. the final score was 12-0. It will be a close game.
Okay, you're right.
I reread your comment. My bad on the Wisconsin thing. Also, I’m prepared to give you the Illinois game by a pretty large margin (they suck).
The 2009 Minnesota-Iowa game is, I think, a bit of a red herring to be throwing up. Iowa’s offense played as well as it needed to. If it was a closer game than the shutout that it was, I see Iowa’s offense, particularly its quarterback (see: previous week and the fact that it was his second start, aka inconsistency) and its wounded running game, stepping up. Also, if the game were to be closer, I’d see the defense tightening their game quite a bit. Just my two cents.
Also, your points regarding the lower-profile games (Michigan State, Purdue, etc) are valid, but I can’t see Minnesota having a chance against Wisconsin, Iowa, or, yes, Penn State. Call me an apologist for the powers that be, but I see you all pulling 7-5, tops, come bowl season.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
So, going into the Iowa vs. Minnesota game,
Minnesota will not have scored a point against Iowa in three calendar years. A SINGLE POINT. NOT EVEN A GODDAMN GOSHDARN FIELD GOAL (Just to be clear: there was still a full year and change left on the Bush administration). And Iowa is fielding a top-ten team this year…but somehow this year’s game is going to be “close.”
Well, ok. I guess we’ll see. Start warming up the “Who hate’s Iowa?” cheer though, cause I think you’re going to need it when we christen “the Bank” with a sound, BCS bowl-preserving beat down.
by Third Generation Hawk on Jun 30, 2010 1:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Edit function + wine
hate’s hates
by Third Generation Hawk on Jun 30, 2010 1:15 AM CDT up reply actions
It would be hilarious if Iowa shut out Minnesota for the entirety of the Obama administration.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 30, 2010 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
How would that be change?
More like “Four more years! Four more years!”
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Jun 30, 2010 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Because
During the prior administration, we had a sickening tendency to actually let Minnesota score points (including a 2006 game that shall never be talked about).
It’s kind of like the ISU no-touchdown streak. Sure, it will end someday. I just hope that day is a long way off.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Was that a rhetorical question?
Because if it means shutting out Minnesota, well…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 7, 2010 12:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Politics notwithstanding
It makes a difference. Hopefully Iowa holds out for eight years. That’d be a sweet, sweet mix of astounding, amazing, and hilarious as hell.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
Would love to see......
…..the Big 10 get a contract with the Holiday Bowl. Tons of B10 alums in San Diego, and it would be great to get another West Coast bowl game.
I'm i LA
but I know a ton of State, U of M and buckeye alum here, I agree, a Big Ten team in Cali outside of the Rose Bowl would do very well.
This actually used to be the case;
Iowa went to three Holiday Bowls (2-0-1) from 1986-91.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Jun 30, 2010 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions
The Holiday Bowl needs to find a good sugar daddy, then.
They moved down the pecking order for the Big 12 because they didn’t offer a payout as big as other bowls (notably, the Alamo). The Big Ten isn’t going to leave its current lucrative deals with all those Florida bowls for a crappy deal with the Holiday.
If they can pony up the money, though, a trip to San Diego in late December would certainly be pretty nice.
"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"
Holiday Bowl's problem
Among many is that the Murph is an outdated, dilapidated stadium that is a pit to watch games in.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
It's better than
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That
Or perhaps not. I’ve never been there. Personally though, I’d love to get out of Florida. One can only watch so many Outback/Champs/generic retiree-land bowls before he craves a change.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
Lots of disagreement here.
1. OSU may lead the conference, but I don’t think they’ve got what it takes to go undefeated. The Oregon game was a mirage; that was probably the worst FBS defense they faced all year. I think they’ll lose at least one, probably to Wisconsin. They still win or tie for the conference title, though. Could a one-loss OSU team make the title game? Maybe, but it’s a long shot.
2. I don’t think Iowa has it this year. A young O-line makes things tougher than you’d think. I’m expecting a 9-3, or even an 8-4, season from them. 10-2 would be a minor miracle, and I can’t see those happening two years in a row.
3. I REALLY don’t think Michigan has it this year. Greg Robinson will field another awful defense (at least by Big Ten standards), which will lose them a bunch of games. The offense was good last year, and might even be better this year, but no offense is good enough to consistently make up 35-point deficits in this conference. 7-5 if they’re lucky.
4. I’d pick Wisconsin to go 10-2 to lock up the second BCS berth, and both Iowa and PSU to go 9-3 to fight over the Capital One and Outback berths.
5. Northwestern, MSU, and Purdue all have a shot at getting to at least 9-3, in roughly that order. I’d be surprised to see them all finish at 7-5.
6. Someone in the Minnesota-Indiana-Illinois group will go winless in Big Ten play. The conference is too strong this year, and all of those teams have slipped behind the pack.
by newenglandnittanylion on Jun 29, 2010 9:07 AM CDT reply actions
One loss OSU
will need a lot of help. One-loss SEC Champ will get in over them. It would be a timing/quality of loss issue with one-loss teams from the Pac-10, ACC, and Big 12. Would an undefeated team from the Big East? Probably. Undefeated Boise? Maybe.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 29, 2010 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't see Alabama having just one loss.
They have a great offense. All it takes is a McElroy ACL or Ingram bruised ego (ala the infamous 04 Anthony Davis) and the offense fizzles. I’m not sold on Julio Jones, either. He had more non-catches in the red zone than any other receiver (aka drops or overthrows). Alabama also loses Leigh Tiffin, who saved their butts more than any single player that they’ve had the last two years.
Defensively, Alabama is NOT going to be anything close to the same squad they were last year. There’s too much to replace right away. Ten defensive starters are gone, and that’s a huge hole that not even the best recruiting class in the nation could possibly fill right away.
I think Alabama might go 10-2, but if they lose to a Penn State team with a true freshman QB, the revolving door of doom may send them staggering into the postseason at 8-4.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 29, 2010 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions
As someone
who has watched the Crimson Tide closely (including attending their spring game), the offense can withstand the loss of McElroy or Ingram. In fact, it is generally accepted the both players have backups that are more talented than the starters.
The defense will likely take a step back. The question is, who can take advantage? Penn ST, starting a new QB in his first road game (with 101K fans)? Florida (in Tuscaloosa) with a new QB and new defense? Auburn, @LSU, @Arkansas? Maybe. I just don’t see them dropping more than one of these games.
If you were to poll Bama fans of their concerns, the list would likely go 1) secondary, 2) kicking game, 3) complacency.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 29, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Out of all those...
I’d take Louisiana State and maaaaaayyyybe Florida. NOT Arkansas. Like you, I’m not buying into the hype.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
I wouldn't take LSU. That team is ridiculously disfunctional.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 29, 2010 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions
But they seem to field a decent team at least once a year.
If the stars align (aka Alabama has a bad game and LSU has a good-to-great game), it’s a possibility. They’re also at home, which can’t hurt the Tigers. Similar situation with the Nitts, although they’re at Tuscaloosa, and they suck worse. Florida is also in a similar situation, albeit with a slightly better team. Any of these teams could win with a varying number of stars in alignment, so to speak. Don’t count out South Carolina or Duke, either (however unlikely an L in either of those games is).
Me gustan los estados unidos.
After that game where LSU fields a decent team, they forget how to play offense.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 7, 2010 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions
That's true
I’m just saying, if that game is the Bama game, then it could be fun to watch. Of course, if not, they’ll get their lunches handed to them by a largely consistent Tide.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
Good, but "Nah."
The Fiesta Bowl will want Iowa over UConn (if they even make it). They got shafted by politics to take both Boise and TCU last year, I doubt they’ll let it happen again.
Besides this fact, Nebraska in the Orange is an anomaly, which traditionally always takes the ACC vs. Big East champs.
I like the other observations. I won’t ever say this team will never make it to a certain bowl. But bowl picks by conference are tied too closely. I wouldn’t stray too far from that.
"Everyone counted us out. I don't know why they keep doing that." -- Kyle Wilson
Won't get a chance.
The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Sugar Bowl; 4) Orange Bowl; 5) Fiesta Bowl. Orange Bowl will snap up the Hawks first.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 29, 2010 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm getting a touch sick
Of Florida. Phoenix or Pasadena would be kickass.
Just sayin’.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
Nice write up!
One other set of losers: the mid-t
I’m not sure what the “mid-t” is though, could someone elaborate?
I think the bowl picks are as good as anyone can predict this far out. Iowa fans would love a trip to the Sugar bowl!
I would argue that Florida isn’t going to have much drop off this year. They have as much talent as any team in the nation, and while Urban Meyer might be getting kind of flaky around the edges, he has proved he is an elite coach. I think psychologiclly Florida is in a good place, with much of the pressure and expectations now transferred to Alabama. I’m just really interested to see what kind of play calling Urban will be calling for their new offense centered around John Brantley. The offensive package may be more like when Urban had Chris Leak.
Wouldn’t it be cool if Nebraska got matched up against a B10 team in a BCS game?
Editing error
Fixed.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 29, 2010 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
As much as I'd like it
OSU will have a tough go to run the table. If they do, then I agree that they’re in. And I don’t see an SEC team in the BCS NCG this year; I just don’t see anyone going undefeated, but if you put a gun to my head and said pick an SEC team to run the table, I’d agree with you on Alabama.
I think either Texas or Nebraska against OSU or Florida State. I like FSU as well, and I think they can run the table in the ACC and beat Florida. Kind of an ‘out there’ prediction, but there it is.
And with the addition of Nebraska and a Big Ten Conference Championship game, do you think that a one loss Big Ten team will get a look at a NCG berth, since the path to the Big Ten title got that much tougher?
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
Maybe in 2011
That when Nebraska starts playing.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Jun 29, 2010 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, that's what I meant...2011
I think they might.
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
Oh.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Jun 29, 2010 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Also keep in mind...
The addition of Nebraska to the Big Ten should result in the conference performing better overall in bowl games. Wherever Nebraska places in the conference, every team below them moves down a bowl game compared to where they would’ve been otherwise. In theory, moving down a bowl game means moving down in competition. In theory.
These bowl picks
have reminded me that maybe Iowa’s miracle juice got used up last year.
Also,
Iowa is the bridesmaid again. They’ll lose to Ohio State and one other game, but 10-2 gets them (and 40,000 black and yellow fans) to New Orleans
I wasn’t aware that the Southern Iowa Polytechnic A&M University Radiators were going to be playing for keeps this year.
Go Rads Go!
by hawkstormer on Jun 29, 2010 12:27 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
THis Rose Bowl stuff is nonsense!
I am livid that a non AQ will be in the Rose Bowl. This is the oldest and greatest bowl game of all time. With Ohio State in the National Title game the 2nd place team should be in the Rose Bowl. When does this agreement run through? It´s total blasphemy and there has to be a way to change it.
It looks
like it will only happen once in the next four years.
Why expand the Big Ten when we could just kick Northwestern out?
Yeah, it's way fairer to stick the non-qualifier in the other BCS games all the time
Not to the team, but to the other bowl games who are peers in the BCS cartel. I thought the Big Ten was all about sharing, brah.
by Albino Tornado on Jun 29, 2010 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, well,
Some things can’t be shared, like…
Aka, the tradition of the oldest bowl in history being marred by teams like Boise State and UCF (potentially, of course).
Me gustan los estados unidos.
I think Boise could make the National Title (at the expense of VT, of course)
The Hokies will get no sympathy from me…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 29, 2010 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Is it possible for both teams to lose?
Because I really hate both of them.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
They should just call it a tie, screw OT.
That would send everyone’s BCS pictures to h3ll…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 30, 2010 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Of course
The over/under on number of “Beamer Ball” references and THEY’RE NOT TRICK PLAYS (/OBNUG’d) in that game is about eleventy billion. If nothing else, the game shouldn’t be boring in any way.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
I may choose not to watch if Bret Mussberger gets announcer duties with Kirk Herbstreit
Simply to preserve my brain cells…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 30, 2010 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Preserving brain cells...
…ah, so you’ve played the Mussberger drinking game, have you?
At least, that’s what I’ll be doing.
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Jun 30, 2010 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions
No, just listening to him is sickening.
He infamously was pro-OSU in the 1999 Wisconsin @ OSU game. The Buckeyes led 17-6 at the half. Behold, Wisconsin scored 36 unanswered points to hand Ohio State one of its worst ever home losses.
The Badgers went to the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes fired Cooper and hired Tressel. And neither team has been the same since…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 30, 2010 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions
As bad as Musberger has become
He always gets a pass in my book for being the announcer for the 1985 Michigan-Iowa game.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Who do you like more?
Mike Patrick? Pam Ward? Verne Ludquist? I like Musberger, even if he can be a bit boorish at times.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Jul 3, 2010 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions
And young sophomore quarterback
OBrienSchofieldismyHero is growing up, right in front of our very eyes this evening.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Jun 30, 2010 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Correction: I'll be watching the Ohio State-Miami game on mute if Mussberger is in the booth...
I think watching Pryor go to work against that defense would be a treat…with something like Dvorak’s New World Symphony going on in the background. Who needs announcers?
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 30, 2010 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Meh.
Haha
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Jul 1, 2010 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions
Really? Dvorak?
While it’s my one of my favorite pieces to play, I’ve always thought Wagner accompanies Big Ten football better
Me gustan los estados unidos.
If one composer fits with Big Ten football...
….it’s Mahler. Epic, bombastic, and basically who John Williams has ripped off for the better part of his career.
That's a good point
Dvorak and Copland always screamed “Midwest” to me, although Copland also seemed to have a bit of Southerner in him. And didn’t Williams draw a lot from Holst for Star Wars? I know he did with the 4th mvt of Dvorak’s 9th in E minor for Jaws.
Mahler, I’m not so familiar with. Lemme fix that.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
What's the best "starter" piece with Mahler?
I’m frankly ashamed to say I’m not familiar with any of his work.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
I particularly enjoy Symphony 1 in D Major. Link here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0ENUYk8WbE
My favorite part of New World Symphony is the first few minutes of this piece: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yctfXIqugXc
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 7, 2010 12:11 AM CDT up reply actions
I like that Gleeson recording
It’s just a little out of sync between A/V, but it’s an excellent performance. Probably my favorite of the 4th mvt on youtube.
Also, thanks for the D Maj. link. Sounds great!
Me gustan los estados unidos.
No problem!
The D Major Piece is on iTunes, I would recommend the Boston Symphony Orchestra.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 7, 2010 8:06 PM CDT up reply actions
And like Nebraska marred it in 1941?
Let’s not pretend that the Rose Bowl has always been Pac-10 / Big Ten, not that as things have been is always as things should be. The Big Twelven could also go back to not playing any other bowl games too.
Michigan State and Penn State weren’t Big Ten members before the Rose Bowl went Big 10 / Pac 10 exclusive; do they mar the Rose Bowl too?
by Albino Tornado on Jun 30, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Seeing as how
Nebraska has played in a Rose Bowl as recently as 2002, I think he meant marring the Grandaddy with upstarts like Boise.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Nebraska played in the Rose Bowl twice in sixty years.
That’s why they had to be added to the Big Ten.
by Abbas_Cincinnatus on Jul 2, 2010 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
It's more of a "Storied program" thing
Tradition: Nebraska, Ohio State, USC, Iowa, etc, have it. Boise State doesn’t.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
Well...
It wouldn’t be too much of a stretch for Utah to be the top non-AQ team this year (granted, Boise would have to lose to VT and another game, and Utah would need to beat TCU — neither of which seems likely, but neither of which seems impossible either). And if that happens you’ve essentially got an all-Pac 12 game.
I don't see Michigan making a comeback
until they find a defense. Can anyone come up with a good reason Michigan’s defense should be any better this year, other than “How could they be worse”?
From a historical perspective it is hard not to expect a return to power for UM, but that just speaks to the amazing job that RichRod is doing to drive the program into mediocrity.
As an Ohio-born Syracuse fan, I think GERG is finally doing something useful...
… and helping to keep Michigan down.
Wow, high on a Michigan resurgence this year
What have you seen, developmentally from them, that allows to again think those 3games you were off last year won’t repeat itself? Less defensive ineptitude/more talent? An O that promises to win shootouts? Mental toughness? Improved coaching decision-making? Or deeply historical winning tradition?
Crack is wac
by jtothep on Jun 29, 2010 2:52 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Yeah I just don't see where Michigan nabs 3+ more wins, where their marked improvement will come from.
Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.
Let's see
Definite wins: UMass, BGreen, @Indiana, Illinois (4)
Likely Wins: UConn, @ Notre Dame, Michigan State, @ Purdue (3)
Likely Loss: Iowa, @Penn State, Wisconsin (1)
Definite loss: Ohio State
Sweep the definites, and either take three of the likely wins and convert one likely loss, or sweep the likely wins. I think that they beat Iowa and lose one of the likely wins (UConn and @ND are my best guesses).
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 29, 2010 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Illinois is impossible to pick at this point.
There’s no consistency in that program whatsoever. They can go from 3-9 to 7-5 with the drop of a hat. Now, the hat has been spinning away from the Illini since the infamous post 07 Rose Bowl (which three other teams had as much claim to) and the Illini haven’t fielded a great defense since the days of K. Hardy and Simeon Rice.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 29, 2010 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions
No
Illinois can go from a losing record to 9-10 wins. They don’t have 7 win seasons.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
by Bama Hawkeye on Jun 29, 2010 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
You just reminded me I was talkign about Ron Zook.
Never mind, the Illini are doomed this year.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 29, 2010 9:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Whew!
A lot to unpack there. Interesting confidences.
I’d be interested to hear where you think the team has improved enough to achieve even 3 of 4 of those Likelies. Maybe you could use your three overestimations from last year as a starting point, and tell us what you think is different?
Crack is wac
I don't see any of those "likely wins" as likely
I could see Michigan going 2-2 against your “likely wins” teams, but I think 1-3 or 0-4 are more probable. Predicting a Michigan win against one of Iowa, PSU, and Wisconsin is also pretty bold.
Michigan had little trouble scoring points last year; they lost so many games because their defense was terrible. For all the attention that’s been paid to Forcier, Robinson, Gardner, and the rest of the Michigan offense, I haven’t seen or heard anything to suggest that their defense will be any better; in fact, with Greg Robinson still at the helm, Graham and Warren gone, and Dorsey turned away, I have plenty of reason to believe that it will be worse. How do you figure they will get those wins?
by newenglandnittanylion on Jun 29, 2010 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions
+1
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Jun 29, 2010 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't you mean 1-1 defense?
Because that’s probably what it’s going to be ranked this year?
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 30, 2010 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions
@ Notre Dame???
Hmm..that’s pretty tough to call.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Jun 29, 2010 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions
That will be the shootout to end all shootouts
I’d set the early o/u at 80, and still take the over. I could see a game without punts.
Fair enough.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Jun 30, 2010 8:30 AM CDT up reply actions
I see three of those 'likely' wins
as losses: UConn (who’s a lot better than people give them credit for), Notre Dame (with Chip Kelly in year one, ND wins 8 games), and MSU.
And RichRod gets shown the door with two straight years of 0-3 against primary rivals.
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
Hold on
They did actually beat Notre Dame last year. But yeah, after this year he could very well be 1-8 or 2-7 against the main rivals.
Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
I think Chip Kelly is a difference maker
and will elevate the ND program. I think UM gets beat pretty bad by the Irish.
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
That's what I'm trying to say.
Brian Kelly is a heck of a coach, even if he did leave his team behind.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Jun 30, 2010 8:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, Kelly's going to succeed given how there's oodles of defensive talent at Michigan...
That was one thing that Cincy squad didn’t have: An OSU or PSU caliber defense… Heck, they weren’t even Wisconsin caliber…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 30, 2010 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I have a problem with Kelly...
His team was raped by a similarly-ranked team in Florida. Perhaps that was ESS EEE SEE speed, but I think it was the fact that his teams tend not to have defenses to speak of. I can see his Fighting Irish foundering against a good-to-great team from any major conference. That depends upon how he uses the talent and size that comes with the name “Notre Dame”, though.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
I see you've been drinking with lunch again...
…(keep in mind that it won’t be Kelly’s ship- – the ball is in the Domer Boosters’ court).
by Eyeheartfreedumb on Jun 30, 2010 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I will wait to see how the ND defense is till i say he will elevate them.
If it is the same as it has been then he will do just as well as charlie.
"I love it when a plan comes together!" Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith
by psu in the w-b on Jun 30, 2010 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Remember...
You’re calling UConn a BCS bowl team here. They won’t lose to UM but beat Virginia Tech this year. I really doubt any team is quite that inconsistent. (Shhhhhhh, don’t mention Illinois).
Me gustan los estados unidos.
Bowling Green
Isn’t that bad, and neither is Michigan State. Illinois and Indiana are impossible to predict. Like you said, UConn is also good, as is Purdue. I see 5-7 yet again, perhaps 4-8 or 6-6. 6-6 isn’t enough for a bowl, though, is it? Seeing as how UMass is an FCS school.
Me gustan los estados unidos.
I like the looks of this........
Our 2 year bowl drought is really takings its toll. Its about time we get back into shape, and this is an excellent prediction!
BTFU
Still with the 8 wins for Michigan??
So Michigan loses Dorsey and you still have enough faith in the Michigan D to put them at 8-4?
I’ll give you @ Indiana but with a road record of 1-8 under Rich Rod I don’t see how any Michigan fan can feel confident going on the road @ ND @ PSU and @ Purdue.
If you look at the 2008 and 2009 seasons most people would’ve included @ Purdue, @ Illinois and Purdue at home as “likely” wins…..and those didn’t turn out so well.
by RickTheBloggerMartel on Jun 30, 2010 8:10 AM CDT reply actions
I find your faith in Michigan
disturbing
Idle talk and hollow promises; cheating Judases; doubting Thomases
As do I
Though, to be fair to Bama, most of the college football “experts” have predicted Michigan to go at least 7-5. Bama is just a bit more bullish than most (and shares my general pessimism about Iowa in Ann Arbor).
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Schedule
Michigan has 3 road games against teams that are in the top 25, 2 of which beat them last year, one of which would have if not for Weis’ inept playcalling at the end of the game (ND, PSU, OSU). Pencil those in as losses right now.
Michigan’s 2 other road games are against teams that were very close to them last year and should be better this year (Indiana, Purdue). Let’s be optimistic and say Michigan goes 1-1 in those games.
Wisconsin and Iowa should be superior teams, but those games are at Michigan. 1-1 in those two games.
Then there’s UConn, MSU, and Illinois. 2009 Michigan either did lose (badly to Illinois) or would have lost to all three of these teams, but all are at home. Let’s continue to give Michigan the benefit of the doubt and say 3-0, but know that 1-2 is extremely possible.
UMass and BGSU should be wins and probably will be. 2-0 in those games.
So that’s an optimistic as possible 7-5, while recognizing that 4-8 is completely within the realm of possibility. 8-4, while only one game away from 7-5, is ridiculous.
Idle talk and hollow promises; cheating Judases; doubting Thomases
MSU is the most unpredictable team.
One win, or one loss, can send that football team into a downward spiral that dooms any postseason hopes.
What measures have been taken to improve that pass defense that was shelled by Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, and gave up a gut-wrenching TD to Iowa?
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jun 30, 2010 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Slight correction
MSU’s downward spiral seems to be endemic. It’s only a matter of when during the season it happens.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Revised post
One win, or one loss, can and will send that football team into a downward spiral that dooms any postseason hopes.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 1, 2010 2:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Michigan won't beat PSU @ PSU
Not with that defense.
PSU’s defense will be strong again this year and will once again shut down RR’s spread.
According to these predictions
Michigan has to play 4 teams going to the Cap One or better, a PSU team that has beaten the crap out of them for two straight years (on the road), 2 other 2010 bowl teams they lost to last year (MSU at home, Purdue on the road), a top 25 ND team on the road, and an Indiana team on the road who will be aching for revenge, and will somehow only lose 4 of those games.
Could it happen? I guess anything’s possible, but anything above 5 wins will be exceeding my expectations.
Idle talk and hollow promises; cheating Judases; doubting Thomases
New BCS rules: USC and the Pac 10
Question: Let’s say Lane Kiffin becomes a great coach over the summer (work with me here) and USC runs through the conference with a 9-0 record, but can’t go to a bowl. Oregon finishes second with a 9-3 (7-2) record and finishes at #14 in the BCS standings. Do the Ducks get the Pac 10’s BCS bid because someone has to / is there a rule stating that a BCS bowl must take them (at-large?).
Unless USC's appeal overturns all the sanctions, in that situation, Oregon would get the Pac 10's bid.
Of course, with Kiffin at the helm, USC will likely “vacate” the wins they do get.
Seriously, that team is a train wreck. They’re not good at all defensively (if they were in the Big Ten, Illinois and Michigan might have better defenses than the Trojans, yuck) and offensively, they just lost several key weapons (McKnight, Williams, and Johnson). Barkley may have progressed, but he just lost his best wide receiver and running back. It’s not going to be very pretty in L.A. next year.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 1, 2010 1:42 AM CDT up reply actions
USC
is not appealing all of the sanctions. They have asked for a reduction. They have accepted a one year bowl ban (2010 season) and the reduction of 5 schollies per year for three years. They’re appealing the second yar of no bowl and 5 schollies per year.
So, USC will be out of a bowl this year no matter what happens on appeal. And yes, the Pac-10 would name Oregon as it’s champion and BCS Rep in the above scenario.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
Still, that team is a rolling disaster.
I would laugh for hours if the Gophers beat the Trojans. And then I’d have to pray for a stunningly epic, triple overtime, Wisconsin win over Arizona State…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 1, 2010 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Are Wisconsin fans even nervous
about games like that anymore? Doesn’t there come a point (I remember OSU fans getting this way during the 2002 season) where you just expect a far-closer-than-it-should-be win?
Idle talk and hollow promises; cheating Judases; doubting Thomases
After Fresno State 09?
I’m used to close games against the better nonconference opponents.
At least Fresno State and Northern Illinois found their way to the postseason…
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 2, 2010 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions
On this point at least...
we can agree. Although no matter how strange the universe becomes I can´t imagine it´ll take 3 OTs for the Badgers to put away hapless Zona State.
'Zona State is in a worse boat than Minnesota, if that's even possible...
Coming off two losing seasons after “sharing” the Pac 10 title in 2007, Dennis Erickson’s seat is hot. He needs to get a winning season or kiss his coaching career good bye.
The man had to coach a luckless 49ers team. He did have success at Miami (stifles guffaws), but his ASU tenure has not turned out very well. After that “shared” Pac 10 title, Erickson promptly got shellacked by Texas in the Holiday Bowl.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 2, 2010 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I don´t get your constant Minnesota Hate
I mean, I don´t exactly like the Badgers, but I don´t go out of my way to insult them at every opportunity.
It´s strange how many Hawkeye and Badger fans have this weird need to bash the Gophers at every turn.
Brewster can't afford a losing season if Iowa, er, he wants to remain head coach.
My point wasn’t so much MN as Dennis Erickson.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Jul 2, 2010 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions
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