If History is Any Indication Michigan May Be Back Shortly
by Jonathan Franz on Aug 12, 2010 11:07 AM CDT
in Michigan
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Is this your 2012 BCS National Championship Game MVP? It wouldn't be the first time...
Earlier this week I did a piece on the consistency of elite programs, as measured by the number of times they've fallen into the cellar. I went through almost 800 seasons worth of records to test a commentator's theory that Ohio State was the most consistent program in college football. Although my focus was on times a team finished with more losses than wins, I couldn't help but notice a fascinating pattern, one that may be quite comforting for fans up north.
It seems that it doesn't take elite programs too long to crawl out of the basement. In fact, every program I looked at except for Texas has won a national championship less than 5 years after suffering a losing season and most have done it multiple times.
| Program | Championships Won Within 5 Years of Losing Season |
| Oklahoma | 1 |
| Alabama | 1 |
| Ohio State | 2 |
| Notre Dame | 2 |
| USC | 3 |
Oklahoma went 5-6 in 1998. Two years later they beat Florida State in the Orange Bowl to complete a perfect 13-0 season. Alabama freshmen suffered a losing season in 1957, only to win a championship as seniors in 1961. (Although it's technically just out of our 5 year range, it only took the Crimson Tide six seasons to go from 4-9 in 2003, to a perfect 14-0 last year).
Ohio State was 3-5-1 in 1959 under Woody Hayes. Two years later, they were undefeated. Similarly, just two years elapsed between the Buckeyes' losing effort in 1966 and their vaunted 1968 championship.
When it comes to reloading, it's hard to compete with the USC Trojans. Although just 5 years elapsed between USC's 1934 losing seasons and 1939 championship, the Trojans were responsible for perhaps the most impressive turnaround in NCAA history. Only one year separates USC's 4-5-1 season in 1961 and their 11-0 championship in 1962. More recently, the Trojans went from 5-7 in 2000, to 12-1 and an AP National Championship in 2003.
Although it's hard to view the Irish as comeback kids today, Notre Dame reverted from a losing season in 1963 to win it all in 1966. And they did it again between 1986 and 1988.
So what about Michigan?
The Wolverines have rebounded from losing seasons to win national championships 3 times. Fielding Yost avenged a 1899 trip to the cellar with a point-a-minute offense and championship in 1901 and did it again from 1919 to 1923. Finally, Michigan enjoyed a four year turnaround from 1928 to 1932.
Modern triumphs these are not. But taken together, the data does establish a precedent for programs that have turned themselves around virtually overnight.
Still, Michigan fans should probably hold off on buying those tickets to New Orleans for the 2012 BCS National Championship Game. History is a funny thing, after all.
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Two issues here
1) Can a power bounce back quickly?
2) When will the bounce back happen?
As you’ve shown, the answer to one is resoundingly, yes. The answer to two is tougher to gauge. Oklahoma was mediocre to bad from 1992-1998. Alabama, with a couple of outlying years, was mediocre to bad from 1997-2006. Notre Dame had a similar stretch from 1955-63. It’s wasn’t just one bad season that these schools had. It was multiple.
And that’s the issue that Michigan has. That bounceback will come. We just don’t know how many losing seasons it will take to get there.
Also, unspoken in this post is the importance of the head coach. It’s not a coincidence that many of these bouncebacks happened with a new (and remarkably better) head coach taking the helm.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
Important to note
here as well that both Oklahoma and Alabama were coming off significant NCAA sanctions that were a major factor in their drop below .500. Until we know what the NCAA is going to impose on Michigan, it’s hard to estimate how long the down period will be.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
by HoyaGoon on Aug 12, 2010 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting data . . .
But I wonder if it is skewed by the pre-scholarship limit, pre-BCS era.
Look at Notre Dame right now. They haven’t won a bowl game since, what, the mid 1990s? Every year since 2000, we’ve heard about the domer’s alleged “resurgence” – often under a “genius” new coach. And they continue to muddle in mediocrity.
Michigan will obviously have historical recruiting advantages and a huge financial commitment to football. But I don’t think there’s any disputing that parity is making the landscape a bit more difficult to dominate (Kansas won a BCS bowl, Illinois has been to two in the past decade, Boise State, TCU, etc., etc.)
The big boys will likely remain big boys, but I don’t see any guarantee of quick turnarounds when there are so many other young guns out there.
As much as it pains me to say it...
ND beat Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl (formerly Aloha) at the end of the 2008 season to end a nine game bowl losing streak dating to the 1994 season.
Notre Dame – Returning to Glory since 1993.
The Hawaii Bowl shouldn't count, and doesn't in my book.
Reward a team for cracking .500 with a trip to Hawaii to play…. Hawaii. It’s more of a late season non conference game than a bowl game.
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 12, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
It fits in with ND's recent behavior...
10 years ago ND would have declined the Hawaii bowl berth. However when your riding a 9 game bowl losing streak and you’re offered a chance to end it against a middling Hawaii team (5-3 WAC, 7-6 overall before bowl), I guess you have to take it.
Having trouble reaching win totals for bowl consideration or (better yet BCS bowls)with your “vaunted” national schedule…schedule Army, Western Michigan and Tulsa.
I really have an immense dislike of Notre Dame.
agree 100%
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 13, 2010 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions
10 years ago ND would have declined the Hawaii bowl berth.
And a year later, they did decline a bowl bid.
Good catch on the Hawaii bowl . . .
But that wasn’t really a “program changer” in terms of putting them back among the elite.
So my point stands.
I really wasn't attempting to refute your point.
Nor was I implying that Notre Dame is any way “back”.
Just correcting a point of fact.
This may support your argument in a way but, I see these sceanarios a bit differently from UM under RRod
Oklahoma post 1998: Bob Stoops became head coach in 1999 and they went 7-5 that year after FIVE CONSECUTIVE losing seasons.
USC was 5-7 in 2000 before Pete Carroll took over in 2001 and went 6-6. 2002 they went 11-2, after starting 0-2 and finished top 5 in the BCS. However USC had only 2 losing seasons from 1990 -2001, and none of those were consecutive. They were simply mediocre.
What’s different about these two teams from UM’s current situation is the style of offense that Pete Carroll and Bob Stoops ran/run versus the “rip and replace” job RRod has done in Ann Arbor in the past 2 seasons. USC and Oklahoma took what they had, and adapted to it, RRod tore the house down to the foundation and iis trying to rebuild, Obviously the latter takes longer and, in my opinion, could be why he’s gone after this season.
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 12, 2010 11:53 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Correction
he WILL be gone. scUM’s schedule only yields 4-5 wins this season at best. Look it over, where will they get 6 wins without a crazy upset? Not…going….to…happen
Im sure he’ll be a great OC in the MAC tho….
Out of Hound since 2008
4 or 5 wins. that's in line with my prediction over at ITS actually...
With how thin the secondary already is, and switching to the 3-3-5 the defense could be the worst we’ve seen in Ann Arbor ever.
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 12, 2010 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I've said it before
and I’ll say it again. Michigan runs the 1-1-9 defense. That’s also where they’ll be ranked at the end of the season.
My kingdom for a spellchecker. Or Devin Harris. Hopefully both.
Fire KP! He forgot to turn off injuries in dynasty mode. - by Norsktroll on BlazersEdge
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 12, 2010 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I think at this point they're trying to convert WR's to DB's
that’s how thin they are int he secondary. And it doesn’t help when one of your best recruits leaves the program(yesterday)
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 12, 2010 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions
JT Turner was out of shape and listed third on the depth chart at corner. He didn’t have his redshirt taken off even though our secondary was absolutely horrendous. Losing Turner is not that big of a deal.
What does the Michigan CB depth chart even look like though
Like 6 guys in the secondary on roster total? Normally losing one guy isn’t a big deal, but attrition takes its toll. This is like the 3rd highly touted guy in the secondary in the last 2 years to leave the program.
Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
Why?
Do Michigan fans ALWAYS come back with some bullshit like this???
4-star/5-star guy leaves/denied entrance to university … It’s ok, we didn’t want him that bad
5-Star guy chooses in-state Rival … We weren’t seriously pursuing (bullshit excuse, then why did you offer?)
Giving MSU fans crap about gloating over 2-wins in a row … Well, it was about time you won a game, when one team wins 6-games in a row, its not really a rivalry ( have you seen your Record against OSU lately?)
I’m tired of scUM fans and their damn excuses about everything. Half the reason you’re the most hated team in the conference has less to do with your success, and more to do with your inability to man up to the fact that you should just be shutting your mouth and biding your time.
by SpartyOn37 on Aug 16, 2010 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Troy Woolfolk suffered an injury...
My idea of Michigan running the 119th ranked defense is coming scarily close to fruition 0_o
My kingdom for a spellchecker. Or Devin Harris. Hopefully both.
Fire KP! He forgot to turn off injuries in dynasty mode. - by Norsktroll on BlazersEdge
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 17, 2010 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions
It's ok!
Michigan fans didn’t really ever WANT Troy Woolfolks ankle to be healthy, they were just surprised when it disagreed with the rest of his body, and committed ankle-cide
by SpartyOn37 on Aug 18, 2010 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
yeah, he showed up to camp over weight and unmotivated
rec’d
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 18, 2010 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions
I will
I will take your action all day on this one, chief.
www.justcoverblog.com
A parallel with Pete Carroll
Is the specter of NCAA sanctions.
But Carroll also had one of the best talent pools in the country to pull from (yes, better than Michigan has). And he was able to use his man tan and charms to get key pieces from all over the country if needed.
I know Northwestern fans are usually accused of short memories
but events that happened before the FBS/FCS split and scholarship limits (1978) have exactly zero connection to the sport today. You can’t make a reasonable prediction based on something that happened in the 1920s.
To wit, Michigan’s split the 1901 title with Harvard and Yale, the 1923 title with Cornell and Illinois, and the 1928 title with Colgate University.
Of the 37 national titles awarded in the modern period, only 2 went to major programs coming out of a down spell. That is the takeaway point from this article.
Northwestern Football - All games decided on the last play or your money back.
I almost refust to look at any thing that happened before 1950.
To much has changed since then.
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 12, 2010 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
and i refusE too
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 12, 2010 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Look at how many basketball national championships Purdue has since then!
That would be 0. John Wooden was a MEMBER of the only Purdue men’s basketball team to take the title.
And pre-1950, Minnesota was a juggernaut. How the mighty have fallen so far…
My kingdom for a spellchecker. Or Devin Harris. Hopefully both.
Fire KP! He forgot to turn off injuries in dynasty mode. - by Norsktroll on BlazersEdge
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 12, 2010 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions
he's no Bobby Knight
take that however you want.
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 12, 2010 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions
A head football coach throwing a tantrum with a chair?
Someone get THAT on Youtube, please…
My kingdom for a spellchecker. Or Devin Harris. Hopefully both.
Fire KP! He forgot to turn off injuries in dynasty mode. - by Norsktroll on BlazersEdge
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 12, 2010 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions
So do Michigan States!
National Titles since 1950:
Michigan State: 1951, 1952, 1955, 1957, 1965, and 1966
Michigan: 1997
that's correct
all of thos club championships that UM won don’t count. It’s like counting a victory in intramurals as a natl title.
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 16, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
These aren't intramurals!
This is the Big Ten!
My kingdom for a spellchecker. Or Devin Harris. Hopefully both.
Fire KP! He forgot to turn off injuries in dynasty mode. - by Norsktroll on BlazersEdge
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 17, 2010 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions
I haven't yet seen evidence
that Rich Rod has much in common with Bear Bryant, Woody Hayes, Ara Parshegian, or even Bob Stoops.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
by SubLime on Aug 12, 2010 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I'd argue that Rich Rod has a lot
in common with Bill Callahan.
Hired by a historically significant program to follow a highly succesful coach. Stubbornly tried to shove square players in his round playbook. Unable to adapt his scheme to what players he had. We’ll see if the rest of their tenure continues to parallel.
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
by rahpsu92 on Aug 16, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
That is one of the best anologies I have ever read on RRod
Seemless
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 16, 2010 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Well with the exception of following a highly successful coach...
JL Smith’s hire in East Lansing was very similar to RRod’s.
Institute “your system” regardless of personnel…check
Institute system that runs counter to what has been established to work in your conference/runs counter to what your school is known for…check
De-emphasize in state recruiting….check
Multiple losing seasons…check
Pink slip…
Also, please never refer to the "2003 AP Championship" that USC claims
ONE-PEAT
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 12, 2010 6:05 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Hmmm, tough to gage, as each of those situations were different
Say what you want about Peter Carroll, he can recruit and coach. The former maybe not all above the board, but the latter is point of fact true. Same with Stoops. There was a saying people used to say about Bear Bryant: he’ll take hise leven and beat your eleven, and then he’ll take your eleven and beat his eleven’.
There’s not many coaches that can do that in this day. I’d say Stoops, Carroll, Urban Meyer, Tressel (based on his 2002 title with essentially Cooper’s personnel), JoePa, and that evil bastard Saban, unless it’s the NFL.
Rich Rodriguez doesn’t strike me as that type of guy. He tried the square peg in the round hole theory with the personnel he had when he firdst got to Michigan, and it didn’t work.
We’ll see…
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
square peg+round hole approach = bad coach
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 12, 2010 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Sorry, but
this post absolutely comes across as wishful thinking. I don’t think you’re gonna suck forever, but more and more I’m realizing that the comparisons of Rich Rodriguez to John L Smith are flawed, because RR is actually your Bobby Williams.
Light a man a fire, he'll stay warm for a day.
Light a man afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
We'll see
Wow, a decent Michigan post on this blog. Thats rare
Should be a compelling year in Ann Arbor. I think offensively, you are going to see one of the league’s more explosive teams. Can they, with finally some experience at the QB positions, cut down on the TOs?
Lot of new faces in the secondary and the promise of playing more guys, can that be enough to cobble together a half way competent D to help turn 38-36 losses into 38-28 wins?
Again, we’ll see. I’m pretty close to the program, am really high on some the kids who will be playing this year. I dont think 8 wins is out of the question, but there isnt a guaranteed W anywhere on the B10 slate.
I still see a winning overall record, and with upwards of 20 starters back in 2011 the program can begin setting their sights on competing in the league’s upper echeleon.
The program is getting closer, not sure I would book any natty title appearances in the time frame you’ve referenced, but I do think they’ll be in a BCS bowl at some point during the Tate/Denard/Devin QB era.
www.justcoverblog.com
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