The Tradifferences of Big Ten Coaches
by nuftw on Aug 16, 2010 9:28 AM CDT
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Print[Bumped for putting numbers to what we all pretty much understand in our guts --- when a coach is/should be in trouble. Bama Hawkeye]
One interesting aspect about college football is that different schools have differing expectations for their coaches. At one school, going to a bowl game once might guarantee their spot for years, while at another a single losing season will place the coach on every "hot seat" listing in the country.
This disparity makes determining whether a coach has been successful much more difficult as winning percentage is rather useless. Instead, we must look at the tradifference, the difference between the coaches performance and the school's traditional level of performance.
Every coach's tradifference after the jump, including the school with the biggest recent upswing (hint: a wizard did it.)
I looked at three different data points: the school's winning percentage in the last 50 years excluding the current coach, the 25 years before the current coach, and the 10 years before the current coach. The difference between the average winning percentage for these three periods and the current coaches winning percentage is that coach's tradifference.
Schoool: Michigan
Coach: Rich Rodriguez
Started in: 2008
Winning Percentage: 0.333
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .742
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .754
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .744
Tradifference: -.414
Michigan fans need another reason to hate Rich Rod? No coach in the Big Ten has had anywhere near the change from their historical level as Michigan under Rodriguez, but you probably didn't need any math to realize that. At least he's run a clean, respectable program.
Schoool: Minnesota
Coach: Tim Brewster
Started in: 2007
Winning Percentage: .368
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .474
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .431
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .529
Tradifference: -.110
Based on these numbers, I can't see any way Brewster keeps his job. Not only is he substantially worse than recent Minnesota teams, he hasn't even managed to replicate their usual level of mediocrity. The situation is even more awkward because Brewster replaced Minnesota's most successful coach since World War II, who was fired for not meeting expectations.
Schoool: Purdue
Coach: Danny Hope
Started in: 2009
Winning Percentage: .417
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .515
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .468
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .556
Tradifference: -.096
Danny Hope only has one year of experience, but he needs to improve on his first effort to maintain Purdue's level of success. Joe Tiller left Purdue with higher expectations than when he entered.
Schoool: Illinois
Coach: Ron Zook
Started in: 2005
Winning Percentage: .350
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .439
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .486
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .373
Tradifference: -.083
Zook is another coach underperforming expectations, even Illinois' relatively meager ones. I don't expect him to survive the year either, though U of I has obviously tolerated mediocrity in the past.
Schoool: Nebraska
Coach: Bo Pelini
Started in: 2008
Winning Percentage: .704
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .783
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .787
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .677
Tradifference: -.045
Based on this method, no one has a higher bar than the coach of the Big Ten's newest team. So far, he has done reasonably well and seems poised for a 2010 season that would move him closer to joining Nebraska's long line of successful coaches (Bill who?).
Schoool: Indiana
Coach: Bill Lynch
Started in: 2007
Winning Percentage: .378
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .377
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .400
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .310
Tradifference: +.016
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Coach Lynch is actually outperforming Indiana's traditional level of ineptness. Indiana doesn't seem to care either way. After all, football season is just a sign that basketball is coming in 3 months.
Schoool: Iowa
Coach: Kirk Ferentz
Started in: 1999
Winning Percentage: .596
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .490
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .560
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .591
Tradifference: +.049
Ferentz took over from the most successful coach in Iowa history and improved on Hayden Fry's record. Of course, that doesn't change his losing record against Northwestern.
Schoool: Michigan State
Coach: Mark Dantonio
Started in: 2007
Winning Percentage: .564
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .527
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .497
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .513
Tradifference: +.052
Dantonio seems to be a good fit at MSU.
Schoool: Penn State
Coach: Joe Paterno
Started in: 1966 (not a typo)
Winning Percentage: .752
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .677
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .698
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .693
Tradifference: +.063
This exercise is completely senseless for Joe Paterno. As the saying goes, Joe Paterno came to cow pastures and founded a college football national power ... that plays near cow pastures.
Schoool: Ohio State
Coach: Jim Tressel
Started in: 2001
Winning Percentage: .817
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .752
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .730
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .756
Tradifference: +.071
Tressel has done the near impossible: come to a school with an incredibly high standard of success and exceed expectations. Now if only he had won all those BCS games...
Schoool: Wisconsin
Coach: Bret Bielema
Started in: 2006
Winning Percentage: .731
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .487
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .545
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .709
Tradifference: +.151
Much like Ferentz, Bielema had the unenviable task of succeeding the most successful coach in program history. If not for Barry Alvarez, Bielema's score would be even higher. He has continued Alvarez's success transforming Wisconsin into a consistent power, though he hasn't managed to break through for a conference title yet.
Schoool: Northwestern
Coach: Pat Fitzgerald
Started in: 2006
Winning Percentage: .540
School's Winning Percentage Since 1960 Excluding Current Coach: .329
School's Winning Percentage In 25 Years Before Current Coach: .342
School's Winning Percentage In 10 Years Before Current Coach: .420
Tradifference: +.176
As previously disclosed on this site, Fitzgerald is in fact a wizard.
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Now maybe it's time for Fitz to get a bowl win.
by PackerHawk on Aug 15, 2010 10:52 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Why do I get the feeling
that this post and the methodology behind it was motivated mostly be the desire to try and say how awesome Fitz was?
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
by HoyaGoon on Aug 17, 2010 2:25 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The situation is even more awkward because Brewster replaced Minnesota’s most successful coach since World War II, who was fired for not meeting expectations.
That sentence is hilarious.
Ever Grateful. Ever True.
and tragically true
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Aug 16, 2010 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
That sentence
is the best thing about this Monday.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
Off Tackle Empire
by Bama Hawkeye on Aug 16, 2010 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions
I will never understand
how a coach who won 53% of his games at Minnesota got fired. It didn’t make sense then and it sure doesn’t make sense now.
Northwestern Football - All games decided on the last play or your money back.
Mason
won 53% of his games mostly by scheduling powderpuff teams. His record in rivalries wasn’t very good though. In the Big Ten, how you perform in the most important rivalries dictates your job.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Aug 16, 2010 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
"His record in rivalries wasn't very good though"?
Brewster has yet to win ANY rivalry game. Mason might not have been good, but he won a couple, Brewster can’t even match that. Yet another reason I hope he never leaves.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
couldn't agree more
worse still is that Brewster finds spectacular ways to lose rivalry games. Either in completely embarrassing fashion or of the “how in the hell did that happen” variety. Prediction: If Brewster doesn’t get to at least 5-7 this year with a difficult schedule, he is toast.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Aug 19, 2010 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions
last win over Iowa: 2006
last win over Wisocnsin, 2003. And the 03 win was a huge FU that Wisconsin repaid with great gladness the next season.
My kingdom for a spellchecker. Or Devin Harris. Hopefully both.
Fire KP! He forgot to turn off injuries in dynasty mode. - by Norsktroll on BlazersEdge
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 16, 2010 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Kind of like 55-0.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Aug 18, 2010 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions
You stilll haven't repaid them for that awful 06 game
Outscoring Minnesota 230-0 over the next four games wouldn’t do it either.
My kingdom for a spellchecker. Or Devin Harris. Hopefully both.
"Right, a ball of hot flaming gas that collapses upon itself." -Doctor Sheldon Cooper from The Big Bang Theory
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 18, 2010 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Interesting analysis
Great idea and a nice approach. As an uncloseted stats geek, I would ask myself how to handle a school with an outlier number like Wisconsin, where the previous coach so turned a program around that the standard of achievement is now much higher than the straight mean of the three percentages you use.
To illustrate, Wisconsin’s mean is ~.580 overall, but that wouldn’t cut it any more for UW fans. (As an Ohio State fan, I would be great with .580 in Madison, but I digress.)
A similar effect occurs with Iowa
Probably adding in another percentage “Best 10 year period in last 50” would compensate somewhat for that effect. Fans always seem to judge the coach by their programs high point.
Northwestern Football - All games decided on the last play or your money back.
Or pretend that nothing existed before their high point
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
No idea what you're talking about
I’m a huge fan of some of the earlier Northwestern teams. Ara Parseghian coached the 1962 Wildcats to a #1 ranking, and some of those ’30s and ’40s teams had great seasons. Great history, all before 1995.
It’s just too bad the NCAA canceled football from about 1973 to 1993…
by TDozer on Aug 17, 2010 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Before Hayden Fry, Iowa had a worse conference record than Northwestern. If Northwestern used to be bad, Iowa was worse.
Northwestern Football - All games decided on the last play or your money back.
Indiana doesn't seem to care either way
I like Coach Lynch, think he’s doing well, and that continuity is as important as anything to the program right now.
Still….yeah. Oooh, LOOGIT: we’re getting legitimate basketball recruits now!
by hoosierdaddynow on Aug 16, 2010 3:25 PM CDT reply actions
And a giant FU to jNW
Their “take out the other team’s best player” tactic is vile.
Come uppins are in order.
And your mothers are all whores.
Well how else do you expect our parents to pay for tuition?
by Chadnudj on Aug 16, 2010 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You forgot to turn off the salary cap on Franchise mode, didn't you...
Oh well.
My kingdom for a spellchecker. Or Devin Harris. Hopefully both.
Fire KP! He forgot to turn off injuries in dynasty mode. - by Norsktroll on BlazersEdge
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 16, 2010 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Shoot
I think i did.
Visit Inside The Shoe
The Buckeye blog for every fan!
by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Aug 16, 2010 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Bahahaha
Rec’d
Visit Inside The Shoe
The Buckeye blog for every fan!
by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Aug 16, 2010 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I've said it before but I'll say it again
I hope we didn’t rough up your boys too much.
“come uppins” can work both ways.
Northwestern Football - All games decided on the last play or your money back.
just like how a certain IOWA LB tried to take out Basanez with a late helmet to helmet hit in Evanston a couple years back…and we STILL won.
by Rhabdowildcat on Aug 16, 2010 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Tressel has as many BCS wins as anyone
and no one has more BCS appearances. He’s 5-3 in BCS games, but I think he gets dinged for losing two national championship games, especially the Florida drubbing. He should get as much credit for beating Miami as he gets scorn for losing to Florida and LSU, but that’s just my unbiaesd, objective point of view. ;)
I’ll take 5-3 any day.
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
And Bob Stoops
largely gets a pass for losing even more BCS, and BCS title, games than anyone else.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
True
And some of his losses were even more lopsided that the OSU-Florida game. And he suffered what was one of the biggest upsets against Boise St.
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
It's all Adrian Peterson's fault!
My kingdom for a spellchecker. Or Devin Harris. Hopefully both.
"Right, a ball of hot flaming gas that collapses upon itself." -Doctor Sheldon Cooper from The Big Bang Theory
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 18, 2010 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions
it's because he wears a visor.
Close. It only counts in Horseshoes, hand grenades and Penn State football.
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 19, 2010 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions
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