About Those Divisions: I See a Parallel
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 1, 2010 10:33 PM CDT
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PrintWhen I drafted Twenty Big Ten Predictions for 2010, I stated that we would see disagreement with the divisions no matter how they shook out. [EDIT: Here's Dennis Dodd with his predicted take] That seems to be playing itself out on the message boards. Personally, I think that the conference did very well in splitting the teams. There was no magic bullet fix, and you couldn't have assigned the teams in a way that was more equal.
More in common than just a title game.
What we care about - what we SHOULD care about - is that the teams have an equal shot to reach the Big Ten title game. That in most years, there won't be a good division and a bad division. That in most years, two very good teams reach the Conference Championship Game. And, I think we'll see that. But, that's all based on past performance. Looking forward, I think we can see a model for what we can anticipate for the division crowns.
As I look at the X Division (that of Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, and Indiana), I can't help but see the SEC East. In 18 years of SEC Divisional play, Florida has won 10 SEC East titles. Would you be surprised if Ohio State won 5 of every 9 Big Ten Division X Titles? That ratio, based upon the Buckeyes past two decades - where they were the best team in the league - seems about right. Both Florida and Ohio State have been dominant forces who have maintained control of their conference foes.
Penn State would be in the position of Tennessee, who won five of those 18 crowns. Even in their best years, it still felt like an upset when Tennessee got past Florida. The Ohio State-Penn State games have a similar dynamic. Georgia won the remaining three SEC East titles, and it's not too hard to imagine Wisconsin picking off three titles in an 18 year span. What has always been the case in the SEC East, and what I anticipate will be the case in the Big Ten X, is that the Division is stacked at the top, leaving little chance for the three weaker teams. Purdue may become equatable to the perpetually 7-8 win South Carolina squad. Illinois may become like Kentucky - able to make bowl games on a semi-regular basis, but never really a threat to win the division. Indiana as Vanderbilt? That's a pretty good match.
Two dominant powers. Two similar stories?
The Big Ten O Division (with Nebraska, Michigan, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota and Northwestern) may well show itself to be more comparable to the SEC West. In the West, we've seen Alabama and LSU combine to win 11 of the 18 crowns. Assuming that Michigan and Nebraska return to their historical norms, that number may actually be one or two low. However, it is a fair prediction that Big Blue and Big Red will combine for a majority of the Division O titles. Arkansas and Auburn each have claimed three SEC West titles, and I think that it's fair to project about the same rate of success for Iowa and Michigan State. And in an odd year, even Mississippi State won an SEC West title...I guess it's possible that Northwestern might squeak out one every 18 years, too.
What's interesting here, is that when the middle tier of teams (Auburn, Arkansas and Mississippi State) made it to the championship game, they didn't have much success (combined 1-6). In other words, in the right year, they could get through a balanced division. However, that didn't mean that they were the equal of Florida or Tennessee. In years where Iowa or Michigan State make it through the O Division, will they have any better luck against Ohio State or Penn State? The Hawkeyes' history with the Buckeyes and the Spartans games with Penn St. don't inspire much confidence. Oh and yes, Ole Miss's futility and Minnesota's futility seem to match up as well.
So when all the dust settles on Big Ten expansion - assuming that there aren't four more teams being added in 2013 - could we see the league marching in the steps of its Southern rival? Don't be surprised if that's exactly what happens.
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When Zook coached Florida, EVERY game was an upset.
But Meyer and Spurrier have had an unreal track record at Florida.
The various schools of the Big Ten should let Ohio State and Michigan know in no uncertain terms that dissent will NOT be tolerated.
"Because one of the great minds of the 21st century is raising glow-in-the-dark fish and weaving serapes..." -Leonard Hofstadter from The Big Bang Theory
I give the new Big Ten divisions a 0 and a huge EPIC FAIL sticker.
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 1, 2010 10:37 PM CDT reply actions
Wow, nice breakdown
I think Iowa could be more in the mix in the O division, though.
"Whoever said that the pen is mightier than the sword never encountered automatic weapons."
I just don't understand how lines like this are possible.
‘Oh and yes, Ole Miss’s futility and Minnesota’s futility seem to match up as well.’
Bowl games since 1999—(because 1999 is no less arbitrary than 1993)
Minnesota—9
Michigan State—6
Northwestern—5
Indiana—1
Illinois—3
Also, against inter-division foes Michigan State and Northwestern the Gophers are 6-2 (including 3 straight wins) and 5-4 respectively. The Iowa series has historically gone in streaks, Michigan finished last in the Big Ten two years running, and Nebraska only just returned to prominence after 8 years of flat out mediocrity.
So, while I don’t think the Gophers are currently one of the ‘elite’ teams of that half of the division, this talk that they are gonna get consistently rolled is ridiculous
Michigan TIED for last in the Big Ten.
But really, what’s the bowl record since 99? Not that great. Getting held to 13 points by Iowa State is just…not how you develop a positive reputation. Unless you’re 2002 Iowa, in which case you almost go coast to coast before encountering the NFL squad better known as the Carson Palmer Trojans.
My hatred of Michigan knows no bounds. Even more so after this travesty.
September 1st, 2010. A day that shall live in infamy.
"Because one of the great minds of the 21st century is raising glow-in-the-dark fish and weaving serapes..." -Leonard Hofstadter from The Big Bang Theory
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 2, 2010 1:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Minnesota last won a Big Ten Title in...
Right. The Johnson Administration (shared). They last won a title and the tiebreakers in the Ike administration. Ole Miss claimed their last title shortly after JFK was killed. That would be the futility to which I refer.
I have no doubt that Minnesota will go back to scheduling patsies and finding 6-7 wins each year. But this is about titles – something the Gophers of the last 50 seasons know almost nothing about,
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
"Off Tackle Empire":http://www.offtackleempire.com
in Football that is.
If only things revolved around Hockey and Wrestling.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 2, 2010 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions
As I posted in another area...
Minnesota is 6-2 against MSU over the last 8 games dating to 1998.
However the 2002, 2005 and 2006 squads were some of the worst teams MSU has fielded in the past quarter century. 2002 and 2005 were bad enough to get both Head Coaches (B. Williams and JL Smith) fired.
1998, 2001 and 2009 finished the regular season 6-6, 6-5 and 6-6 respectively.
Quite honestly, I believe we are a much different program than any of those years/teams.
Saban was looking for bigger dollars and to move on. Bobby Williams was absolutely in over his head. A position coach’s first head coaching job should not be in the Big Ten. JL Smith was overmatched.
MSU has a stable coaching roster. We’re getting better recruits (higher ranked recruiting classed) and have great facilities. It remains to be seen if the team/program lives up to its hype, but I believe in most years going forward MSU should return to the dominance it experienced over Minnesota from 1971 to 1997.
“Minnesota is totally going to the Rose Bowl this year. The scouts are raving about Weber. You guys just don’t know.”
/AhliBobwa
Ever Grateful. Ever True.
Every time I read something Dodd has written I get stupider
The timing of the OSU-Michigan game has no effect whatsoever on the chances for a rematch if you assume all games are independent.
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
What should we name the divisions? Obviously no one consulted a map when they talked this out. Any ideas?
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
"Turner, at midcourt...inside it, at the buzzer, GOT IT!!!!"
We're the Big Ten, who the F@*# are YOU??!?!?!
Man, I really have no clue. Would’ve made more sense to put Iowa with OSU, PSU etc, and let Wiscy join Mich, MSU, etc…
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
"Turner, at midcourt...inside it, at the buzzer, GOT IT!!!!"
We're the Big Ten, who the F@*# are YOU??!?!?!
by Andrew Tolliver on Sep 2, 2010 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually, I’m convinced they did it randomly. They split up OSU, PSU, Wisconsin, Mich, Nebraska and Iowa to give the divisions “balance” then they did one of the following:
1) Put the remaining schools on a dart board, blindfolded Jim Delany and let him throw darts to divide them up.
2) Drew names out of a hat.
3) Saw the bailout episode of South Park, and cut a chicken’s head off, then whatever school the body landed, they were placed in a division.
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
"Turner, at midcourt...inside it, at the buzzer, GOT IT!!!!"
We're the Big Ten, who the F@*# are YOU??!?!?!
by Andrew Tolliver on Sep 2, 2010 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions
If you look at the winning % as a whole the 2 divisions are equal.
Who's leg do I have to hump to get a drink around here?-Brian
I mean thats really sweet, but I don’t think thats what they used to determine the alignment. Great stat to know though
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
"Turner, at midcourt...inside it, at the buzzer, GOT IT!!!!"
We're the Big Ten, who the F@*# are YOU??!?!?!
by Andrew Tolliver on Sep 2, 2010 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't put it past Delaney.
Some sort of Mad Scientist/Evil Genius.
Who's leg do I have to hump to get a drink around here?-Brian
He does look a little crazy now that you mention it.
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
"Turner, at midcourt...inside it, at the buzzer, GOT IT!!!!"
We're the Big Ten, who the F@*# are YOU??!?!?!
by Andrew Tolliver on Sep 2, 2010 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions
In honor of this blog's mascot
The Sherman Division (OSU-PSU) and the Grant Division (Iowa-Nebraska).
by hoosierdaddynow on Sep 2, 2010 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
I like it.
Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!
"Turner, at midcourt...inside it, at the buzzer, GOT IT!!!!"
We're the Big Ten, who the F@*# are YOU??!?!?!
by Andrew Tolliver on Sep 2, 2010 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions
We have a winner
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
"Off Tackle Empire":http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 2, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Love It
And they should play for the Union Cup in the Big Ten championship before going on to play the SEC champ for the BCS title.
by Randy Oldgoat on Sep 2, 2010 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Perfect.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Sep 2, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Still would have preferred PSU, OSU, Michigan, MSU, Purdue, IU in the east and the remaining teams in the west.
Ever Grateful. Ever True.
This is probably the way things would have gone
without Michigan having a grossly exaggerated view of itself…
My hatred of Michigan knows no bounds. Even more so after this travesty.
September 1st, 2010. A day that shall live in infamy.
"Because one of the great minds of the 21st century is raising glow-in-the-dark fish and weaving serapes..." -Leonard Hofstadter from The Big Bang Theory
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 2, 2010 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Has Mississippi St beaten Auburn or Arkansas 4 of the last 5 years?
Because that’s Northwestern’s record against Iowa.
Northwestern is far, far better than Mississippi State, though...
I mean, it’s not like that MSU has been to two Rose Bowls…
My hatred of Michigan knows no bounds. Even more so after this travesty.
September 1st, 2010. A day that shall live in infamy.
"Because one of the great minds of the 21st century is raising glow-in-the-dark fish and weaving serapes..." -Leonard Hofstadter from The Big Bang Theory
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 2, 2010 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions
I know
As a Gopher fan, I have to give Iowa crap in the few opportunities I have, and yes Northwestern is indeed far better than Mississippi St.
Seriously tho Bama wrote a great article here and I think the paralells he draws between the SEC and Big Ten are bang on with the divisions. Can’t wait for the new divisions next year.
Actually
Miss. St did have a stretch in the ’90s when they won 4 in a row over Auburn. They also had a losing streak that lasted for more than a decade against Auburn, too.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
"Off Tackle Empire":http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 2, 2010 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions
That said
My comparison is based upon the number of division titles that one won and I would expect the other to win. In that way, the teams seem pretty even.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
"Off Tackle Empire":http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 2, 2010 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Ehhhhh. The divisions are ok. This may all be moo next year this time anyway. What I don’t care for is cowtowing to Michigan and tOSU and Delany’s pretence that it is otherwise. I’d much rather he be honest about it, but then that’d never happen (nor with Slive or Beebe – it just goes with the job).
It's a moo point
You know, like a cow’s opinion.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Hawkeye State
"Off Tackle Empire":http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 2, 2010 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I am good with the divisions
Even if UNL’s first 2 years will be murder row.
Just need to change UNL/ Iowa game to Friday after thanksgiving and I will be happy as a clam!
So I tried the Barbasol and Rotel dip and I was very dissapointed!
College football is and should be played on Saturdays.
Who's leg do I have to hump to get a drink around here?-Brian
One thing I like is the recruiting outlook going into this set-up.
ESPN 150 players counting verbals to date for 11 class back to 06 class:
Div X: Ohio St.=32, Penn St.=17, Illin=8, Wisc=6, Purdue=0, Indiana=0
Div 0: Mich=22, Iowa=5, Neb=5, Mich St.=5, Minn=3, NU=0
Ohio St., UM, and Penn St. are all in good recruiting areas: Ohio St. basically gets a lot of the best players from Ohio—one of the better states in the country as far as HS football goes. UM recruits well regionally and nationally—they may be down right now, but there are still a lot of good recruits considering them for 11 class. Penn St. has the leg up on Pitt in Pennsylvania—another good HS football state—and recruits the East very well (NY, NJ, Maryland, Vir, ect.). Some say Penn St. may not be able to recruit as well without JoePa—or that his health is a concern now, and I don’t think that will happen because Penn St. has plenty of tradition, is in a solid recruiting area and recruits the East well. I think just like Florida St.—recruiting boost since Bowden left, there will be no problem picking up good players as they always have. I think what has been going on in recruiting in Big Ten is not a trend—since 2000, Mich, OSU, or Penn St. has respectively been Big Ten champ either winning outright or sharing with 2001 Illinois the exception. If you go back another twenty years, OSU and Michigan has respectively been Big Ten champ either outright or sharing in all but five years with one of those being Penn State in 94. This is why I thought putting those three in the same division would get you unbalanced divisions—this set-up looks good to me. Chicago is a very good recruiting area for most Big Ten teams also, but these three recruit it heavily not to mention ND which usually gets a lot of good players from the Chicago area. I do think one of the problems with Big 12 was Nebraska was counted on to anchor the North and could not live up to it because although Nebraska has great tradition, the school is not in a fertile recruiting area ( the state or surrounding states) and the North began to lag behind the South big time in regard to recruiting. The numbers just got to a ridiculous level. ESPN 150 verbals to date for 11 added back to 06 class:
North: Neb=5, Col.=5, Mizz=3, K St.=1, Iowa St.=0, Kansas=0
South: Tex=57, Okl.=33, A&M=10, Okl St.=8, Baylor=3, TT=0
Does it mean the teams that have more 4/5 star recruits on their team...
will automatically win? No. Does it mean they have an advantage? Yes. Is there a historical pattern in the Big Ten that shows teams have dominated both in recruiting and at the same time on the field in terms of winning conference championships? Yes. I cannot answer your question and like you said before, no one can predict the future, but people can use information available to them and try to make the best decision possible instead of saying none of this information means anything and we can learn nothing from the past (recent or otherwise) or from others experiences. Big Ten official thoughtfully went about determining divisions with competitive balance in mind and this is what they came up and I agree with it. We will just have to see how things turn out, but I think Michigan will be back soon and be a force in the O division.
Interesting Take
I’m not sure the O & West divisions line up as well as you claim, as Iowa, MSU, NWU, all can be pretty fluid. In particular, NWU, who you say might squeak out a division title, has won three conference titles since Penn State joined; that’s more than Iowa (2), and MSU (0) combined. And of course, there’s no telling how long it will take Michigan to come back. I think that this division is the most up in the air… which probably means Nebraska has a solid chance at taking it, despite how tough their schedule is.
The top-heaviness of the X division does worry me. The two perennial bottom-feeders are in with the two heavy-hitters, who together have all 7 shares of the Big Ten Title in the last 5 years. I like Rittenberg’s take on it: if Purdue doesn’t get back to Tiller form, there "could be a sizable gap between the top three teams (Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin) and the bottom three. "
Really good post! Got me thinking.
Permanent last game opponents?
Looking at the schedules, I see there is some fluidity (outside of Michigan-OSU) in terms of last game opponents. Specifically, NU plays MSU one year, Illinois the next.
I wonder if the Big Ten will shift to permanent end of season opponents. You’ll have to have 2 cross-divisional games in order to maintain balance, and then (presumably) 4 intradivision games. My hope:
Michigan-OSU (cross)
NU-Illinois (cross)
Iowa-Nebraska (great border rivalry, Farmaggeddon, and could be a play-in for the Big Ten championship game some seasons)
Penn State-Wisconsin (a HIGHLY underrated game, and in a down year for OSU, this too could be a play-in for the Big Ten championship game)
Indiana-Purdue (keeps the Old Oaken Bucket for the last game of the season)
MSU-Minnesota (admittedly the weakest one on this list, but not terrible, either)
If they go to permanent last game opponents...
one of those games will be Minnesota/WIsconsin. It was this game for most of both schools’ histories, and it will occur in rivalry week again soon.
They should have
Of course, that would have required sensible division splits (if for no other reason than that the four preserved end-of-season games and Iowa-Nebraska make perfect sense to keep at the end, but MSU-PSU isn’t guaranteed to happen every year and therefore they have to split up one of the logical pairs).
Interesting read
Speaking for myself,I’m looking forward to the 2011 season,and watching all of it come to lite. Good luck to all of you this season,and next…except when you come up on our schedule of course.
GBR!
throw dem bones!!!
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