Grading Big Ten Out of Conference Performances - Part 2
by Jonathan Franz on Sep 28, 2010 10:38 PM CDT
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It's time to unveil the second half of our Big Ten out of conference marks. You can read the first batch here.
Indiana
Bill Lynch's teams might not shake up the standings, but they're certainly not boring. At their best the Hoosiers are a dynamic group. At their worst they're a team that's constantly playing catch up.
High Water Mark...
Whether a cake walk, or a red carpet walk, the whole month of September was Hoosier-friendly. Ben Chappell threw a career-high four touchdown passes in the first half of Indiana's 35-20 victory over Akron, giving the Hoosiers a 3-0 start to the season.
Wake Me Up When September Ends...
Then again, it's not like Indiana played the most challenging of schedules. After a brief date with FCS Towson, the Hoosiers played a Western Kentucky squad that's dropped its last 24 games, and a winless MAC club. Still, IU's defense has looked largely mediocre -- giving up 335 yards to Akron, and allowing opportunistic offenses to move the ball at will.
It doesn't matter how many skill players they have on offense, if the defense can't get off the field the Hoosiers are headed for another rude awakening in October.
Out of Conference Grade: B-
Northwestern
You can't overachieve more than the Purple. In the last two seasons Northwestern has been one of the most consistent programs in the Big Ten, although they still don't have a bowl win to show for it. Despite losing an established dual-threat quarterback in Mike Kafka, Pat Fitgerald's offense doesn't seem to have missed a beat.
High Water Mark...
Dan Persa was almost perfect in his debut, going 19 of 21 on the road to lead the Wildcats to a 23-21 victory over Vanderbilt. Northwestern followed the victory up with three wins over outmatched opponents.
Wake Me Up When September Ends...
Despite a 4-0 start, the Wildcats continue to struggle on defense. They allowed Central Michigan to rack up 423 yards, and are third-worst in the conference in total defense. Like Indiana, if they don't right the ship, they'll lose a number of games in conference play.
Out of Conference Grade: B+
Michigan State
The Spartans always seem to lose games they shouldn't...except when they don't. After melting like wax paper in the fourth quarter in 2009, Mark Dantonio's bunch seems to have found a way to win.
High Water Mark...
In the most memorable moment in the Big Ten season thus far, Mark Dantonio called a fake field goal on fourth down in overtime to lift the Spartans to their third win over the Fighting Irish in four years. It was as brilliant as it was gutsy. And for once, it was Michigan State that earned the right to celebrate.
Wake Me Up When September Ends...
Although it hasn't cost them like it did all too frequently last season, the Spartan's pass defense remains a shaky ninth in the Big Ten. On average, Michigan State is allowing 252.5 yards in the air. Specifically, the Spartans are still allowing opponents to complete 52.9 percent of passes in the fourth quarter.
Will the same prevent coverage that allowed Notre Dame to take a seven point lead in the fourth quarter squander Michigan State's chances at reaching its first double digit win season since 1999?
Out of Conference Grade: A-
Wisconsin
The Badgers seemed to have all the pieces heading into 2009. But then again, it was the same story heading into 2008.
High Water Mark...
Safety turned savior Jay Valai blocked an extra point attempt to allow Wisconsin to maintain a 20-19 lead late in the fourth quarter against Arizona State. The Badgers have started 3-0 in every season under Bret Bielema.
Wake Me Up When September Ends...
Still, it shouldn't have been that close against the Sun Devils, and the only part of Wisconsin's offense that has really clicked is the ground game -- anchored by bruiser John Clay. Scott Tolzien was expected to be an NFL-caliber signal caller, instead Madison is eighth in the Big Ten in aerial attacks. Additionally, special teams play on kickoff coverages continues to hamstring the Badgers.
Nevertheless, 4-0 is 4-0, and Wisconsin has a chance to prove it's every bit the pre-season conference contender this week against Michigan State.
Out of Conference Grade: B-
Michigan
Rich Rodriguez didn't even announce his starting quarterback until a half hour before Michigan's season opener against UConn.
High Water Mark...
Four weeks later Denard Robinson is the most electric athlete in college football. Despite playing only a quarter in last week's runaway victory over Bowling Green, Robinson leads the FBS in rushing and throws on a wire. Michigan leads the Big Ten in total offense, averaging 563 yards a game.
Wake Me Up When September Ends...
If a 4-0 start sounds familiar it's because the maize and blue were in precisely the same position last year heading into conference play. Their downfall? A decrepit defense. Giving up 37 points and 439 yards to Massachusetts did little to settle the stomachs of the Ann Arbor faithful. If Greg Robinson can't figure out how to button down the hatches against Big Ten opponents, Michigan will never be further than a knee injury away from another abysmal season.
Still, something just feels different this time around.
Out of Conference Grade: B
Ohio State
The Buckeyes may be the Big Ten's persona non grata, but they're also the team to beat. After two disappointing out of conference debuts, we wondered whether this would be the year Jim Tressel exorcised his early season demons.
High Water Mark...
Ohio State overpowered twelfth-ranked Miami, overcoming a 10-3 first quarter deficit to top the Hurricanes 36-24. Terrelle Pryor found a way to sustain drives in crucial third down situations, and the silver bullets emasculated Jacory Harris and Miami's skill athletes for a win that wasn't in doubt past the middle of the third quarter.
Wake Me Up When September Ends...
Special teams gaffes -- particularly on return coverages -- haunted the Buckeyes through the out of conference slate. In Week 1 Marshall took a blocked field goal back 61 yards for a touchdown. Against Miami the scarlet gave up kickoff and punt returns for touchdowns. Ohio's Julian Posey took a 99-yard kickoff return to the house. The touchdown was ultimately called back on an illegal block. The Bobcats also disrupted an Ohio State punt.
Championship teams execute in all three phases of the game. For now, Ohio State is only 2/3rds of the way there.
Out of Conference Grade: A-
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Eighth in the conference in passing numbers Scott Tolzien may be...
But he hasn’t thrown an INT in two weeks. He didn’t throw one against arguably the best defense Wisconsin faced. Tolzien has completed 76.2% of his passes, which is only behind spread master Dan Persa’s still-ridiculous 80.2%. If MSU should, for some reason, fail to field a secondary as they did against ND, he could go three weeks in a row without an INT.
The more probable reason his passing numbers aren’t higher is because Wisconsin fields the best running back in the conference (Brandon Saine, you are free to disprove me, Le’Veon Bell, you too) and has used him to the tune of 4 straight 100 yard games.
This time last year and the year before, I don’t think the Badgers did that. P.J. Hill’s stats for 08 and Clay’s stats from 09 read:
Hill 08: 210 yards and 2 TDs vs. Akron, 57 yards on 18 carries for 2 TDs vs. Marshall, 26 carries for 112 yards and no TDs @ Fresno State, 22 carries for 70 yards @ Michigan
Clay 09: 15 rushes for 49 yards and 2 TDs vs. NIU, 21 rushes for 143 yards vs. Fresno State, 12 rushes for 70 yards vs. Wofford (still can’t believe we didn’t put up 81 points on them), and 32 rushes for 142 yards and 1 TD vs. Michigan State
This year? Clay: 17 rushes for 123 yards @ UNLV (7.2 YPC and 2 TDs), 23 rushes for 127 yards vs. SJSU (6 YPC and 2 TDs), 22 rushes for 123 yards vs. ASU (5.6 YPC and 1 TD), and 15 rushes for 118 yards vs. Peay (7.9 YPC and 1 TD).
Now, MSU has by far the best dual-threat RB combo in the nation conference, according to eSECpn… (Bell and Baker have been unreal), but the Spartan D was dominated by a freshman John Clay in 08 and last year by the eventual Offensive Player of the Year John Clay. (08 Clay had 111 yards on just 14 carries and a TD, 09 Clay had 32 carries for 142 yards and a TD).
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 28, 2010 11:08 PM CDT reply actions
Denard Robinson is Michigan's version of 2007 Dennis Dixon.
His health is inextricably linked to the fate of that team.
Now, that involves an amazing run to the top 25 (a win over a shell-shocked Michigan team as well), a devastating home loss to Cal (which in turn will lose after being ranked in the top 5), an incredible run to No. 2 in the nation, and then a torn ACL (against ‘Zona) and a three game losing streak to close out the regular season, including a fluky, wild as heck loss to Oregon State and a shutout at the hands of a team that couldn’t fight its way out of a paper bag (UCLA).
Applying that to Michigan…
They’d lose to Michigan State when ranked 11th, Purdue when ranked 2nd, Wisconsin the next week, and then get shut out by Ohio State.
All in all, it would be a wildly successful season, sadly ruined by the extremely early graduation of fifth year senior sophomore Dennis Dixon Denard Robinson…
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 28, 2010 11:41 PM CDT reply actions
So you're saying
that the Fighting Denards should be wary of the Turf Monster?
by Pariahwulfen on Sep 29, 2010 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions
And of Mike Belotti
I mean, Rich Rodriguez, putting in a QB with a slightly torn ACL who manages to tear it COMPLETELY in a crucial game that ends up decided by double digits.
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 29, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Sorry
I was unaware Tom Izzo had taken over MSU’s defense this weekend…
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 28, 2010 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions
If only that were true.....sigh
Seriously, though, I expect a really good game Saturday. I think the Spartans special teams end up being the difference – KMart takes one to the house at some point in the game.
I can hope against hope
that SOMETHING’S been done to improve the special teams…
Izzo sadly got his dates mixed up and showed up for the Northern Colorado game, not the Notre Dame game. Imagine Kalin Lucas, well, anywhere, for the Spartans. Or Draymond Green at tight end.
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 29, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Theft rings...
At least Sims’s dismissal was done as speedily as possible to avoid tarnishing the program’s image…
Draymond Green wouldn’t have to worry about charging calls (unless Ed motherBLEEPING Hightower found his way into the game) but he would have to worry about offensive pass interference. You can’t just shove guys out of your way in the endzone…
Chris Allen would sulk on the bench, but he’d be a sweet wide receiver if he was a better teammate…
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
No longer using Yahoo! Sports for anything besides stat checking since 9/29/2010...
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 29, 2010 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions
He's not dismissed
He’s suspended. And he just took a plea today that will leave him with a punishment as light as probation with the possibility of having his record expunged as a first time offender. There’s a decent chance he’ll play again for MSU, just not this year.
Es gibt keine Freude wie Schadenfreude
When they start giving points for total yardage I'll worry
What’s neglected here is that NU has one of the better scoring defenses in the country so far.
The total yardage looks bad because the Cats have been falling back on prevent defense for the fourth quarter in every game. It gives up a lot of yards, but it ends the game quicker so Fitz can have more time to yell at the team for all of the yards they gave up.
Whenever they’ve needed to perform, it has been spectacular. They’re just so used to being underdogs that they don’t how to handle themselves with a double digit lead.
by Batman42 on Sep 28, 2010 11:45 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Exactly. I'll add that
the ’Cats have not trailed this year. Not once, in four games. Pretty impressive considering that two of those have been on the road.
by Purple Nation on Sep 29, 2010 8:43 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree...
…I’m not too worried about the defense. They’ve given up yards, for sure, but many of those yards were in the 4th quarter with backups in, the Cats playing the prevent, and sitting on a large lead. Plus, Hankwitz has played things pretty close to his vest in terms of coverages and blitz packages in the non-conference, mainly because he hasn’t had to get creative…..meaning that teams have had the opportunity to gain yards on the Cats.
The defense has, however, continued to be as opportunistic as ever at causing turnovers (8 INTs, 4 fumble recoveries – a +7 turnover margin overall), and is 22nd overall in the nation in points allowed (15.5 per game, compared to the Wildcats 30 ppg average).
Some say those turnovers are luck (notably a poster on MGoBlog, who called the Cats inexplicably lucky over the past 2 years), but I think they’re more a result of the Cats being aggressive in gang-tackling/stripping the ball and in Hankwitz mixing up coverages and blitzes (a lot of the Cats INTs, for example, have been by LBs or D-linemen dropping into coverage unexpectedly after showing blitz).
So count me amongst those that are not too concerned with the Cats’ defense so far….
mich st pass d
Specifically, the Spartans are still allowing opponents to complete 52.9 percent of passes in the fourth quarter.
by Brad Silverman on Sep 29, 2010 12:26 AM CDT reply actions
I was thinking the same thing...
I would not be happy if our QB was passing at a 53% rate. I don’t like MSU but I’m not sure how that is the statistic that points to a weak secondary (and I do agree, MSU has a terrible secondary).
by Good Ol' Oakley on Sep 29, 2010 7:58 AM CDT up reply actions
Uh, no.
MSU does not have a terrible secondary. Not with:
T-#32 opponent completion percentage
T-#22 Opponent passing YPA
T-#35 opponent passer rating
T-#36 number of completions over 25 yards
Sure, they have given up a lot of yards — #102 total passing yards, #97 yards per game, #106 pass completions greater than 15 yards — but have had more passes thrown against them by opponents than any other team in the FBS.
I would venture to say that MSU has an above-average secondary. Not good, but definitely not terrible.
They'd better be prepared for a heavy dose of the ground game...
They’ve shown no ability to stop John Clay whatsoever.
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 29, 2010 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
It IS a good thing.
Overall opponent pass completion percentage is 54.9%, good for T-32 nationally.
Specifically, the Spartans arestillonly allowing opponents to complete 52.9 percent of passes in the fourth quarter.
FTFY.
Dan Persa has been the most impressive player so far
outside of Denard Robinson. Northwestern deserved and A- because of him, in my opinion, but I can understand the downgrade because of the defense.
Still, an 80% completion rate?
"A parent's only as good as their dumbest kid. If one wins a Nobel Prize but the other gets robbed by a hooker, you failed."
Not to say I told you so, but....
….many Cats fans (myself included) called out the so-called experts for claiming that the Cats would have trouble replacing Kafka and WRs Brewer and Markshausen. As we pointed out, those guys themselves had replaced Bacher/Peterman/Lane, so why couldn’t Persa/Ebert/Dunsmore/Stewart replicate their production? And indeed, so far, Persa and crew have been able to do so (even if they are just as handicapped as Kafka was last year with a complete and utter embarassment of a running game)
At this point, the Cats’ offensive results are very much a product of the system — high completion percentage passes, QBs and WRs allowed to redshirt/gain experience in running the offense before being put into game action, quick pace that keeps defenses from making adjustments, etc. We shouldn’t be too surprised, anymore, that the Cats reload (to an extent) at QB and WR every time someone leaves….
Yes
Yes, I am. Because if you can’t gain self-respect for making inconsequential predictions on the internet, where can you?
by Chadnudj on Sep 29, 2010 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Amen.
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Jonathan Franz on Sep 29, 2010 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions
To be fair
While I wouldn’t call myself an expert by an means, but definitely a Cats fan, I was wary about Persa coming into the season. I’ve been pleasantly surprised.
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
I evaluated Persa for OTE
when we did the ‘Evaluating the Mechanics of Big Ten QB’s’ series, and having known nothing about him prior to that piece, I was very impressed with the kid. There wasn’t a lot of tape to review on him, but he really came across as a QB playing in the spread system, where Kafka, as good as he was, always seemed like he was more of an athlete playing QB, if that makes any sense.
The guy is sound mechanically, has a strong arm, and is accurate. After he took a beating against Penn State on the road last year, he checked off the composure block as well. He’s the real deal, and I think he’ll be playing on Sundays.
"A parent's only as good as their dumbest kid. If one wins a Nobel Prize but the other gets robbed by a hooker, you failed."
Wow, Northwestern has reached the point where going 4-0 nonconference and discovering one of the best qbs in the country is “meets expectations”.
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
Absolutely agree
that MSU’s fake field goal to win in OT against Notre Dame was the highlight of the entire Big Ten preseason schedule. Gutsy, audacious call that caught ND off-guard and worked to perfection.
by St8rBoiInMN on Sep 29, 2010 2:20 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
+34
I truly expected them to play for the tie. When Gantt caught the TD I shouted, and I’m not even an MSU fan.
That being said, there’s quite a difference between Dantonio on the field and in the press box. On a serious note, hopefully there’s a cardiologist at his side at all times.
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 29, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Rec'd
Visit Inside The Shoe
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Sep 29, 2010 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions
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