Big Ten Power Poll - Post Week 4
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 29, 2010 11:01 AM CDT
in Big Ten Power Polls
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PrintLet's be honest. Two of the easiest columns to write (and get feedback from your readers) are 1) the power rankings column and 2) the pop culture comparison column. Much like that magical day when somebody got their peanut butter on my chocolate (or did I get my chocolate in her peanut butter?), it was predestined that one day these two great columns would be brought together...
So it's finally time to see what we have. Sure, we studied the evidence last week, but this week starts something different. This week, we begin to find out who is the boss of the Big Ten. Not The Boss. There's only one of those, and he has some words that can help us better understand this upcoming conference season. After the jump, find your team, start playing your song, and then go back and read through the Conference. Let's the Man's wisdom wash over you. You'll be better for it.
So, stick your ball cap in your back pocket, and let's see what we know...
Because all Sony music is now protected on this Vevo player, I can only imbed live clips. I tried to pick the ones with the best audio quality.
1. Ohio State - 96 Points (8 1st Place Votes) - Last Week: 1 - Murder Incorporated
The bullseye in the Big Ten is painted Scarlet and Gray.
So you keep a little secret down deep inside your dresser drawer
From dealing with the heat you're feelin' down on the killin' floor
No matter where you step you feel you're never out of danger
So the comfort that you keep's a gold-plated snub-nose thirty-two
2. Nebraska - 85 Points - Last Week: 2 - Nebraska
Charles Starkweather wore a black shirt. So does the Nebraska D.
From the town of Lincoln Nebraska with a sawed off .410 on my lap
Through to the badlands of Wyoming I killed everything in my path
3. Wisconsin - 80 Points - Last Week: 3 - Mansion on the Hill
For how long has Wisconsin been staring up at the Mansion atop the Big Ten's Hill? Still don't know if the Badgers can climb up there.
At night my daddy'd take me and we'd ride through the streets of a town so silent and still
Park on a back road along the highway side
Look up at that mansion on the hill
4. Iowa - 66 Points - Last Week: 4 - Night
The Hawkeyes fans are still busting at their seems for this season. But that could all come crashing down on Saturday Night.
5. Michigan State - 61 Points - Last Week: 7 - The Promised Land
What's the difference between Michigan State and Wisconsin? Why can't Michigan State start their climb to the Promised Land.
6. Michigan - 60 Points - Last Week: 5 - Better Days
These are Better Days. And Better ones yet don't seem very far away.
7. Northwestern - 48 Points - Last Week: 8 - Light of Day
The Purple can see the Light of 8-0 right around the corner.
8. Penn State - 47 Points - Last Week: 6 - Wrecking Ball
#8? You still need to step to the line and beat the Lions to get them down this far.
9. Indiana - 28 Points - Last Week: 9 - From Small Things
Will these small victories lead to 2 big ones? That's all Indiana is really looking for in conference play.
10. Illinois - 24 Points - Last Week: 10 - Roll of the Dice
You've gotta believe me, Illini. Your roll will come after you suffer through the next three weeks.
11. Purdue - 22 Points - Last Week: 11 - Downbound Train
If not for bad luck, the Purdue train would have no luck...
12. Minnesota - 8 Points - Last Week: 12 - Dean Man Walkin'
Dead Coach Walking? Yes. Dead Team? That's what the players have to decide.
The Big Ten Power Poll is voted upon by the eight writers of this staff. 96 is a perfect score. 8 is the lowest possible total.
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I'd like to announce I am out until basketball seaosn with a torn ACL
Sure, it won’t affect my typing, but I felt i was missing out on something all the kids were doing.
Ugh.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
When asked why he went for 5, Tate responded "..because I couldn't go for 6...".
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Sep 30, 2010 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions
What about Hummel's knee?
Is he going to be inspired by Bolden, Smith, and Marve and suffer some season ending injury?
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
No longer using Yahoo! Sports for anything besides stat checking since 9/29/2010...
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 30, 2010 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Penn State #8?
MM I don’t know. Could someone make an argument about putting PSU at #6, I’m too lazy.
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
There is no wrong order
For teams 2-8. Each has looked good and bad. The losses were not damning, and there are no wins of note. Other than preseason expectations, has Wisconsin done anything to deserve being ranked that much higher than MSU or the Purple? Wouldn’t all of those teams have same record if they had played the Lions 4 non-con games?
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 29, 2010 12:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Agreed....
….I’ll always overrate Northwestern (it’s the homer in me), but I absolutely agree that there is, so far, a very thin line separating teams 2-8…..
Thank God for conference season to bring some semblance of accuracy to these arbitrary power rankings….
by Chadnudj on Sep 29, 2010 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If you actually look at who these teams beat (and who those teams beat etc)
instead of preseason hype, a clear #1 emerges:
http://www.offtackleempire.com/2010/9/27/1713608/transitive-win-loss-record-week-4-realitys-bias-strikes-again
Basically, most the top 9 have mostly played opponents with at least something of a pulse. The exceptions are OSU, Wisconsin, and Indiana.
Of course, prediction is always a component of power rankings at this point in the season; I don’t really have a problem with Wisconsin being #3, even though their FBS opponents have 1 FBS win between the three of them.
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
That's why I don't care for
that style of ranking. I’m sorry, I’m not going to buy that a win over CMU is better than a win over Miami. Not all wins are created equal.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 29, 2010 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
See MSU-ND and Michigan-ND for further information
as well as Iowa-ISU. When the Cyclones win, even if Iowa should go winless, its an upset.
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 29, 2010 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
All wins are obviously not created equal; the difference is whether you want to judge their value based on performance or based on laundry.
Any ranking system is going to be very flawed 4 weeks into the season. The choice is between favoring preseason expectations based on who was good in the past even if the only similarity is the jerseys or starting with the assumption that all teams are equal until proven otherwise.
I bet you would like the style a lot better had Iowa beaten Arizona, putting them at #1 in the country.
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
Even if Iowa would've won and jumped to #1 in your rankings
I would still think that this system was ridiculous… You’re right that any rankings this early in the season is too arbitrary (which is why the BCS starts in week 6) but anyone who has watched all the Big ten games wouldn’t put Northwestern at #1.
"I shoot, I score. He shoots, I score." - Dan Gable
by ClaybornSmash on Sep 29, 2010 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, beating ASU was definitely worth less than beating Florida Atlantic.
You know that football transitivity is a running joke, right…?
You know Week 4 Power Rankings are a running joke right?
I’m merely providing a different perspective than the standard “Vote for the undefeated team from the most prestigious program even if they haven’t played anyone good”.
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
Your rankings have Northwestern as #1 in the Big Ten
Even though they haven’t played anyone good!
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 29, 2010 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Ha, you’d hate to see my rankings then. My formula is purely record based and does not care about preseason rankings or historically dominating programs.
As it is only Week 4, there just really aren’t enough data points to generate accurate placements since so many teams are still moving from 1st to 5th or 10th to 4th based on one weeks results. Once Week 7 or so arrives, the numbers are much more stable as the teams separte within their conferences.
But since I alluded to the rankings, here is where the Big 10 stands right now after Week 4:
Michigan 4-0, 3.61
Northwestern 4-0, 3.33
Ohio St 4-0, 3.22
Penn St 3-1, 3.03
Mich St 4-0, 2.95
Wisconsin 4-0, 2.77
Iowa 3-1, 2.25
Illinois 2-1, 1.93
Indiana 3-0, 1.88
Purdue 2-2, 1.52
Minnesota 1-3, 0.47
Nebraska would be 4-0, 2.89, so right behind Mich St.
Now don’t freak out, cause once conference season starts, there obviously would be better separation. Also, we shall see if the non-conference opponents continue to look horrible, or improve to boost some of those numbers.
Right now, of the 42 Big10 OOC opponents (I know ND is in there 3 times), only 5 have positive numbers (Miami FL, Arizona, Bama, USC and Missouri). the rest are neutral or negative. That should not be the case by the end of the year (I hope).
I’m curious as to how you do your rankings.
After looking at yours, SpartanDan’s and others, I am more convinced there’s no reasonable way of looking at wins and losses and not ending up with Northwestern in the top 3.
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
For a detailed explanation of how my system works, look at my posts on BCS Evolution, specifically Week 1. Here are the current rankings.
But in a nutshell, I rank all 120 teams in FBS within their conference 1-9, 1-12, etc. Playing a team at the top of a conference is better than playing the worst team from that conference. And playing a team from a stronger conference is better than playing one from a weaker conference. Also, playing road or neutral site games is better than playing one at home.
One example, it is better to play LSU than say Tulane, but if you playes Tulane on the road, it would not be as damaging to your score.
I do not include any MOV at all. The only bias in the rankings is where I have to break teams of like records within a conference. Early in the season, that is typically done based on BCS, non-BCS, FCS abd road vs home games. But as the season progresses and there are fewer teams tied within a conference, I will break ties by head to head and conference record, then by SOS.
Like I alluded to above, I try to remove the names from the jerseys and just do it by number crunching.
So I guess
if you’re saying it’s different, you’re right. If you’re saying it’s better, I think it’s far from it.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 29, 2010 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Northwestern being #1 is obviously a huge plus. As far as a weak schedule, I think you’re looking too much at the laundry again. According to Sagarin, Northwestern has had the second hardest schedule of the undefeated Big Ten teams.
I wouldn’t say better or worse, just off in different ways. Polls tend to overemphasize program prestige, while the transitive-based has difficulty sorting through bad teams beating even worse teams from great teams beating good ones, especially early on.
In other words, I don’t seriously believe that at the end of the season, Northwestern’s win over Rice will be nearly as impressive as OSU’s win over Miami. It’s just fun to see what comes out if you only work from wins and losses, rather than expected wins and losses.
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
You didn't ask me
But:
1) Referring to “looking at the laundry” is very dismissive. There is a lot of data – MOV, past performance, known talent of players, coaching, and most importantly this season’s games, which I have watched, with my eyes. This data all leads me to believe that Ohio State is very, very good (i.e. better than Northwestern).
2) Are you taking your system seriously, or is it just for fun? Because you defend it like it is legitimate, but then say “it’s just fun to…” etc.?
Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa
by Not Marv Cook on Oct 1, 2010 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions
1) I do not seriously think that Northwestern is better than Ohio State. I don’t think anyone believes that. I might argue that Northwestern has played an harder average schedule so far, but that’s as far as I’ll go.
2) I am not sure what you mean by “taking the system seriously”. How does someone act differently if they take a particular rankings seriously? They don’t really affect my life in any substantial way. Rankings just give fodder to argue about (which I like to do). If I can come with a system that has Northwestern #1, all the better.
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
Danny Hope and Gary Nord...
…would be very upset that you dissed Florida Atlantic like that. They are THE Howard Schnellenberger disciples. You can see the results of that success at Ross-Ade Stadium.
That doesn't consider score
Also, I think you’re overvaluing long chains. It might be better to give reduced values for teams your defeated opponents beat, further reduced if it’s a chain of 3, and so on.
I’ve got a couple computer ranking systems (one which ignores margin, one which includes it but weights the results to give more weight to additional points in close games than in blowouts). The one that ignores score has NW slightly ahead of the rest of the pack (but jumbles the rest of them; Michigan, OSU, and MSU are almost indistinguishable, followed by Wisconsin, Nebraska, PSU significantly further back, and Iowa well behind that). The one that does disagrees: OSU is #1 among Big Ten teams by a mile, then Nebraska, Iowa, MSU, and Michigan-NW almost indistinguishable and PSU-Wisconsin about a half-point apart.
You can see the full national rankings at http://dbaker.50webs.com . The W-L—only version is still a bit wonky at this point (as is your system) and probably won’t make a whole lot of sense for another 2-3 weeks at minimum, but the margin-aware version seems mostly reasonable.
I will always prefer ranking systems that don’t include margin of victory. Maybe that’s just part of being a Northwestern fan. For a prediction system, including some sort of winning margin helps, but teams should be judged on whether they won or lost. I am trying to think of a way to include score into transitive rankings in a natural way though.
I’ve toyed with a couple other adjustments to strictly transitive. One devalues wins in an exponential fashion with chain length, another devalues wins over teams that have a lot of losses. Both of these changes probably improve the system in some sense (though they don’t change the results too much).
To me, the benefits of the strictly transitive system are:
a) Computation is easy to understand and “makes sense” (related to non-iterating)
b) As the season goes on, eventually converges to be very close to most other win/loss based rankings (even at this point it isn’t that far away from your approach)
c) Allows analysis into how each game affected the overall record, as well as answering questions like “Which teams did you effectively beat/lose to?” “Which win/loss was biggest for overall perception?” (also related to non-iterating)
d) There are no “settings” to adjust, like how much to reduce the value of a win in a long chain. The fewer choices, the fewer opportunities for manipulation.
The disadvantages:
a) Doesn’t really have a predictive component. The transitive ranking can’t give an expected winning percentage between two teams or an expected margin of victory
b) Fails pretty spectacularly for situations where teams play each other many times (e.g baseball)
c) With relatively few games, teams who in some sense “luck into” long chains get better rankings
I’ll keep posting the Big Ten transitive rankings on here (and the full list at EDSBS) and I’ll keep an eye on yours to see what the differences are (right now, yours seems to dislike teams with losses to good teams more than mine).
Reality has a little-known Northwestern bias
NU prez knows how to get PUMPED
Wait...
That “transitive” ranking thing is serious?
I thought that was supposed to be tongue-in-cheek.
Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa
by Not Marv Cook on Oct 1, 2010 7:53 AM CDT up reply actions
At least we're not last !?!
Is that a good thing? Not sure if that’s something to be positive about or not.
I’m just hoping that our whole team doesn’t develop yellow fever or typhoid over the bye week, or one of them gets hit by a car walking to class or a meteor hits the indoor practice facility in West Lafayette, or…………………
FML
Ah, "The Promised Land".
Favorite Springsteen song by a wide margin; got to see Sleater-Kinney play a roaring cover of it on their final tour.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
The Boss!
Aren’t we overrating Michigan a touch? An excerpt from our preview:
Just so we’re all clear, running a track meet against Connecticut, Massachusetts and Bowling Green doesn’t validate an offense (or a Heisman candidate). And neither does beating up on Indiana. So let’s not jump to any conclusions about Michigan this weekend.
See it here: http://bit.ly/dCL44i
Can we even evaluate Michigan after beating up on Indiana’s D this weekend? After that they’ve got MSU and the Spartan defense (save for Greg Jones) is quite lackluster.
by tailgateandcover on Sep 29, 2010 2:28 PM CDT reply actions
the Notre Dame puzzle
Granted that UConn, UMass, and BG don’t come close to providing a measuring stick as far as Michigan’s rating. But the Irish are a different matter. Winning in South Bend was a big deal. Totally off-the-cuff observation — I’m impressed with the defense that Kelly has fielded (compared to last years version). Much more intense.
ND is a much better team than their record indicates. (And that’s really hard for me to say because I hate the Irish.) Now here’s hoping that those frogs lose another four games.
At some point,
you are what your record says you are, right?
Also, it’s not like Northwestern or Penn State have beaten anyone better than Michigan has.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 29, 2010 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
But...
…Northwestern, at least, beat 2 of those “nobodies” on the road. Vandy may be Vandy, but winning at an SEC venue on the road at night is still impressive.
(And yes, I realize Michigan played at Notre Dame…)
Winning at one of 9 or 10 SEC venues on the road at night is impressive.
Vanderbilt is one of the other two or three.
That's like saying winning on the road at a Big Ten venue
is a big deal when the Big Ten venue is TCF Bank stadium.
"A parent's only as good as their dumbest kid. If one wins a Nobel Prize but the other gets robbed by a hooker, you failed."
It's a big deal for Illinois.
I mean, that game accounted for a third of their 09 win total…
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
No longer using Yahoo! Sports for anything besides stat checking since 9/29/2010...
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 29, 2010 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions
well
I suppose congratulations are in order for beating what could possibly be the worst teams in C-USA and the SEC on the road. I really think you’re overplaying this “SEC team on the road” thing. Their stadium is smaller than Ryan Field, and it wasn’t even a sellout (missed by 2,000). Also, there were 15,500 in attendance at the Rice game in a 45,000 person capacity stadium. Hardly what I would call hostile. There are HS games in TX which draw bigger crowds.
BRUCE!!!
Come on. Your telling me that Michigan is not “BORN TO RUN”! A song all about a last shot, i.e. Rich Rod under pressure. And with Robinson running everywhere this team is “Born to Run!”
No
I determined before I started that I was going to avoid the Born to Run cliche for Wisconsin or Michigan.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 29, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Michigan is "One Step Up"
Yep, everyone loved the blue after the non-con last year too. Had a QB sent from heavens last year as I recall…
But all I’m thinkin’ is
I’m the same old story same old act
One step up and two steps back
Always like Tunnel of Love.
"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.
Great song
and perfect for Michigan so far
"I shoot, I score. He shoots, I score." - Dan Gable
by ClaybornSmash on Sep 29, 2010 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions
that song
could really apply to several of the middle tier of the Big Ten right now.
Is Michigan what they appear to be, or will it be a replay of last year?
Will MSU Sparty themselves again after yet another strong start?
Is PSU any good, or will their inexperienced OL/QB and be their version of 2009 Michigan?
Will the real Iowa (@Arizona or vs ISU?) please step up?
Northwestern, actually, has a great shot at getting to 8 wins. They should actually start 6-0 with their next 2 against Minnehaha and Purdon’t. They also have remaining games against IU and Illinois and miss both Michigan and OSU. They get Iowa at home which is an opportunity for them given Iowa’s weird struggles against NU recently (1-4 against NU the last 5 years???). Don’t know how good NU is, but they should have a pretty shiny 8-4 record by the end of the year.
Blinded by the Light...
“revved up like a duece, another runner in the night” could have worked. Anybody? Anybody?
John Clay weighs in on the Boss...
This mammoth back says:
“They say you gotta stay hungry,
hey baby, I’m just about starvin tonight”
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
I feel like this should be Northwestern:
With this very unpleasin’, sneezin’ and wheezin,
the calliope crashed to the ground
the calliope crashed to the ground
I’ll let you figure out how exactly to interpret that.
Off Tackle Empire - Ruling on the Big Ten since 2008.
Should be, indeed.
But certainly isn’t.
by Brad Silverman on Sep 29, 2010 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Michigan and Wisconsin need to be further down
Michigan should be moved down for the terrible state of their defense and for the fact that Robinson is already showing some wear and tea. Wisconsin should be a bit lower for cutting it way too close against some inferior competition. For that 3-8 group, my order would be Northwestern, MSU, PSU, Wisconsin, Michigan.
It will be nice to finally see these teams go head-to-head, so we can really see who’s who.
by newenglandnittanylion on Sep 29, 2010 7:10 PM CDT reply actions
It's going to be a while before that game (Wisconsin @ Michigan is in late November)
and speak of cutting it close against some inferior competition! You guys were behind Temple for a LONG time, and trailed going into the half against them AND Youngstown State!
Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. It’s not like ASU’s 1-11, Miami of Ohio terrible…
Maybe Koa Misi and Jared Odrick would be Patriots if Bill Parcells wasn't Comedic.Sans's father...
"I looked at BN once. I got banned." -the immortal words of JShufelt
No longer using Yahoo! Sports for anything besides stat checking since 9/29/2010...
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 29, 2010 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions
cutting it close against inferior opponents?
Umm, Temple???
a) I have Wisconsin and PSU ranked side-by-side, so I’m not really sure what your point is. I don’t think Wisconsin is bad; I just think that Northwestern and MSU have performed better thus far, and therefore should be ranked higher on the Power Poll. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wisconsin finish second in the league behind OSU at the end of the season, but that’s not where they belong right now.
b) Temple is a good team this year; they scored as many points on UConn as Michigan did, and have already beaten the toughest conference opponent they’ll face all year (Central Michigan).
by newenglandnittanylion on Sep 30, 2010 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Springsteen and the Big 10
It’s like a bacon sandwich with extra bacon.
"A parent's only as good as their dumbest kid. If one wins a Nobel Prize but the other gets robbed by a hooker, you failed."
PSU at number 8 is about right.
When asked why he went for 5, Tate responded "..because I couldn't go for 6...".
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Sep 30, 2010 11:39 AM CDT reply actions
State Penn will be lucky to finish 5th in conference
More frequently than an alcoholic diabetic, Ohio State pisses excellence, week in and week out
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