Post Week 8 - 2011 Bowl Projections

by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 23, 2011 9:22 AM CDT in Bowl Projections

I got home last night just in time to see Kirk Cousins complete his last two passes against the Badgers. I flipped the channel and saw Texas Tech play better against Oklahoma than they ever did under Mike Leach. And yet, the big winner last night may have been Boise State.

Follow with me here. I think that Oklahoma will beat the rest of the teams on its schedule, including Oklahoma State and Kansas State. I think that Oregon will beat Stanford. I think that Clemson will Clemson a game somewhere down the stretch. I don't think that Houston matters. It could well be that when all is said and done, we're left with an undefeated SEC Champion (13 days until this year's biggest football game in the history of the world) and an undefeated Boise State sitting above all others. Would the pollsters prevent Boise from getting to the BCS title game if the only other option are one-loss teams? I can't see it, not after the last five years and two BCS Bowl wins. Boise State has shown that it belongs at this level.

Get your slingshots ready, this is the year that David finally meets the biggest of Goliaths.

			I was at the Alabama-Tennessee game last night. The "LSU" chant at the end of the game sounded like a war cry. It's going to be some kind of atmosphere. Yep, Boise gets its shot.
			Whether it's Michigan State or Nebraska, Wisconsin wins the rematch. Here's a fun question: if Oregon doesn't play LSU in the season opener, do they go to the BCS title game?
			Oklahoma is nothing if not predictable. You know that they'll drop one they shouldn't at some point. I just didn't see it happening at home. Stanford is really good. I just think that Oregon is a little bit better.
			In the "It Hurt Me More When Nick Saban Spurned Me Bowl"... The Alabama-LSU loser will go here. I think that we'll be looking at the Nebraska-MSU winner (provided that it's 11-1 before losing to Wisky in the B1G Title Game) or Oklahoma State for this spot. My guess is that the Sugar Bowl goes with the Big Ten. I was wrong on Sparty this year. I didn't think that they had this stretch in them.
			Clemson is going to lose, right? Does anybody want to see them in the title game? Thank you to West Virginia for reminding us that the Big East doesn't have any Top 15 teams - no matter what their records are.
			That big game in Lincoln this weekend just got huge. Arkansas is going to finish 10-2 with their only losses to the two best teams in college football. That's rough.
			I'm penciling in Michigan at 9-3, but if they get to 10-2, expect to see them getting rolled in a BCS bowl. Georgia wins the SEC East and loses by 20 in the SEC Title game.
			Penn State is 7-1 (4-0), and yet their best win was at home against Iowa. Now that things are getting tougher, I expect them to drop at least two more games. K-State has a brutal finishing stretch, but at 7-0, they've already exceeded the win total that most foresaw for them.
			Ohio State is good enough to win out. They're questionable enough to drop three games. I see them somewhere in between and in Jacksonville. South Carolina has a tough finishing stretch and the kinds of injuries that make me think they've already played their best football of the season.
			Can Iowa get to eight wins? Slow down. That game at Purdue is looking tough, and that was an expected win in order to get to seven. Iowa could go from 6-2 to 6-6 if the defense doesn't get better. A tip of the hat to the Red Raiders. That was a fantastic performance.
			If Illinois has lost five in a row, spoiling the 6-0 start, does the Zooker still have his job when Illinois travels to Minnesota at the end of the year? Pick the best team from the C-USA West not named Houston.
			With the Big Ten unable to fill its slot, FIU goes to Detroit and faces MAC Champ Toledo.
			When you can't get to six wins, you're on the couch with the Queso Bowl. Looking at Purdue's schedule, it could all come down to the Novmber 20 game against Iowa. Win that (the win against Indiana the following week is implied), and the Boilers and slip into a bowl game - likely the Pizza. Indiana was mathematically eliminated with the loss to Iowa. Minnesota can be eliminated with a loss to Iowa this weekend. Northwestern may be the most underachieving team in college football. More on that later this week...

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If the LSU-Bama loser loses by less than a touchdown

Better chance they have a rematch than an undefeated Boise getting in, particularly if Georgia gets spanked in the SECCG

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by Jonathan Loesche on Oct 23, 2011 9:34 AM CDT reply actions

I’d say true, but only if it’s LSU that loses. ‘Bama won’t get benefit of the doubt if they lose at home.

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by HawkeyedFrog on Oct 23, 2011 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions

agreed

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by Graham Filler on Oct 23, 2011 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions

I think the coaches will prevent that from happening. The coaches poll did some finagling to get Florida in against OSU after Michigan lost to them. I see the coaches in the non-SEC conferences doing some gerrymandering to prevent a LSU/Bama rematch.

by talonk on Oct 24, 2011 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Purdue can definitely get out of the queso purgatory

All they have to do is split their remaining home games and beat IU. I think the Ohio State game is a more likely win that Iowa given the putridity of OSU’d offense.

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by BoilerTMill on Oct 23, 2011 9:56 AM CDT reply actions

Putrid defense you say?

Iowa is happy to oblige.

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by The Mexican't on Oct 23, 2011 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions

Oh, wait, you said offense. The typo confused me.

Twitter

by The Mexican't on Oct 23, 2011 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions

So if Michigan goes 10-2...

…they go to a BCS game ahead of an 11-2 MSU / Nebraska (which picks up its second loss in the B1G championship game?)

by CPT Hoolie on Oct 23, 2011 10:21 AM CDT reply actions

It's happened before in other leagues

Yeah, I was too brief there. Michigan wouldn’t control its own destiny in that situation.

Sparty is going to hate this, but the Fiesta and Sugar will find 10-2 Michigan (especially with 5 non-BCS seasons) more attractive than 11-2 MSU coming off a loss. It’s not right. It’s not fair. But that doesn’t mean that it isn’t so.

Michigan would not jump Nebraska in the same situation. Nebby’s decade long BCS-less streak, plus big national name would not be turned down.

"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint

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by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 23, 2011 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions

I'd buy that

I wouldn’t like it, but I’d buy it.

How much does it depend on when Michigan picks up its second loss? If Michigan loses to Iowa but wins out otherwise, are they more likely to jump the B1G CG loser than losing at home to Ohio State the last game of the season?

I don’t think Michigan is going 10-2 though. Probably losing @ Iowa, and either @ Illinois or against Nebraska.

by CPT Hoolie on Oct 23, 2011 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions

Absolutely

In truth, Michigan had to lose one, they’d be best served by doing it this week and closing with wins over Iowa, Nebraska and Ohio State.

"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint

http://www.offtackleempire.com

by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 23, 2011 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions

whaaat? Michigan is not playing for a BCS bowl.

stunning, stunning indeed.
I am calling it..OSU goes into AA and beats UM. Everyone is saying UM wins that easily, not so fast my friend. That OSU defense is really really good.

by spartynation on Oct 23, 2011 10:47 AM CDT reply actions

That Ohio State defense is going to hand Wisconsin loss #2 on Saturday.

Watching the Cubs piss it away for 31 years.

by CarolinaHawk on Oct 23, 2011 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions

MSU's defense is a lot better than tOSU's this year

And Wisconsin still put up plenty of points against them.

Boiler Up, Go Blue

by lonewolf371 on Oct 24, 2011 7:08 AM CDT up reply actions

Uh, no.

If Wisconsin is in full-on hangover mode, OSU could win. But I think it’s more likely that Wisconsin comes out angry and wins big. OSU’s defense is good but not in the same league as MSU’s, and OSU’s offense is pure crap. Unless the Buckeyes can get four or five defense/special-teams TDs, Wisconsin wins by 20+.

I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.

by SpartanDan on Oct 25, 2011 12:34 AM CDT up reply actions

If Michigan goes 10-2, I'll eat something unseemly

I’ll also be really surprised if UN-L’s offense works better against MSU’s defense than UM did. Which is to say, I think the Spartans have pretty solid odds this weekend. But it’ll still be a blast watching the encore performance of State’s incredible October.

by cwel87 on Oct 23, 2011 10:58 AM CDT reply actions

Your predictions

Where do you ‘think’ the Ducks will go ‘if’ they win out? (big if as they has 4 tough games left)

Go Ducks 2011-2012

by dzwizzard on Oct 23, 2011 11:09 AM CDT via iPhone app reply actions

what a great weekend of football

Btw. No tv coverage on the UO/TTU game

Go Ducks 2011-2012

by dzwizzard on Oct 23, 2011 11:11 AM CDT via iPhone app up reply actions

Big 10

MSU put the Big 10 back on the map

Go Ducks 2011-2012

by dzwizzard on Oct 23, 2011 11:13 AM CDT via iPhone app up reply actions

Really?

I distinctly remember watching the second half on ESPN2 .

by Albino Tornado on Oct 23, 2011 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions

hey stop predictions seriously,

by spartynation on Oct 23, 2011 11:12 AM CDT reply actions

how stupid does OTE look now with their predictions.

Whether it’s Michigan State or Nebraska, Wisconsin wins the rematch. Really??? Let us just not play the B1G champ game if it is Wisconsin and MSU/NE/Iowa. Let us just give this trophy to Wisconsin. Really, what happens if OSU beats Wisconsin next week and beats PSU, beats UM.
Seriously, everyone starts drinking the kool aid and predicts there is no way this team can beat Wisconsin. Prime example TTU beat Sooners-28 pt underdog!!!

by spartynation on Oct 23, 2011 11:15 AM CDT reply actions

I'm going to wait until the end of the year to go after this

But, for now, I’ll leave it at this: some predictions were woefully inaccurate, some people were called out on them, and all they did was shroud themselves in their ill-informed, ridiculous ‘reasons’ . Without listening to any football (or common) sense.

People who don’t understand simple concepts like gambler’s fallacy should not be consulted to predict sporting events or seasons.

by cwel87 on Oct 23, 2011 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions

I'm going to say this because I've been taking crap from Boiler fans for my prediction that they would go 1-11.

We aren’t experts. We don’t get paid to do this. We just love college football and the B1G in particular.

Our predictions are “worth” the paper they are printed on. Many, many times we are wrong. On the internet.

In all honesty , while I try to find rational explanations and defenses for the positions I take I am, in many cases, writing from the fan’s perspective (whether that is MSU or the B1G in general).

I don’t think Bama Hawkeye is going all Vicki Valencourt on us and telling Swanny what the score is gonna be; I think he is saying that right now, today, this is how he feels the season is going to play out.

Always glad to see you here and thanks for your support on my posts.

by MSULaxer27 on Oct 23, 2011 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

This goes here

by Jon Berg on Oct 23, 2011 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs

But when you say Purdue will go 1-11....

And do it with such ignorant assholishness, then you deserve to be held accountable and reminded of it every week.

Ever Grateful. Ever True.

by PurdueMatt on Oct 24, 2011 7:46 AM CDT up reply actions 5 recs

This is the contention I have

Okay, you made a prediction that was unseemly. Own up to it. And, when you’re confronted with rational reasons stating why that will not be, either defend your point with solid facts or realize you screwed up.

But do not, not, not continue to paint yourself in a corner by telling us how you picked the Patriots to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl eleventy years ago and by throwing out subjective, obscure ridiculousness and expect people to respect you for the opinion you bring to the table.

From what I’ve read, Laxer took his shit and stood tall initially, but gave in as the screams got louder (and I like Laxer’s work, and he’s a fellow Spartan, but the screams were right in context). That doesn’t make a man weak; quite the contrary, actually. A person who realizes he fucked up and admits as much is always the bigger man than the fool who stands by their statement without so much as a codswallop to stand on.

by cwel87 on Oct 24, 2011 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions

"ignorant assholishness"

That’s a new one for me.

And I suppose your just the guy to do it to.

Here I will say it one more time: I WAS WRONG about Purdue football this season.

The way you follow me around on the OTE and post about my Purdue prediction is borderline creepy.

by MSULaxer27 on Oct 24, 2011 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions

You brought it up, not me

Ever Grateful. Ever True.

by PurdueMatt on Oct 24, 2011 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions

And yes, ignorant assholishness....

Ignorant because you botched your opening statement by mixing up the Griese and Phipps years. I wouldn’t expect you to know this but it takes 30 seconds to find this on wikipedia. Ignorant because you speculated that Marve’s “uncertain eligibility” status could be a distraction even though it had already been established that it wasn’t even in question. Ignorant because not only did you pick Purdue to go 1-11, you didn’t even pick the right gimme game.

Assholish because of this.

Ever Grateful. Ever True.

by PurdueMatt on Oct 24, 2011 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions

good thing your predictions are all on record and never wrong

oh wait

by Loretta8 on Oct 23, 2011 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

People are allowed to be wrong

Just give reasons why you believe something will happen prior to the event in question. And, when countered by obvious claims (like, for example, Denard has proven himself to be an amazing playmaker but a shitty quarterback, and that he makes up for the grand, grand majority of the offense), be prepared with reasons why you believe that will no longer be the case. If you end up being wrong about it, at least you had reasons to think the way you did.

Saying a form of ‘I think so, I feel it in my gut!’ repeatedly isn’t going to win anyone over. As well it shouldn’t.

by cwel87 on Oct 24, 2011 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions

if Oregon doesn’t play LSU in the season opener, do they go to the BCS title game?

It’s a legit question. The Pac-12 is so miserable (the third best team in the league is either a team who lost to Illinois or a team who nearly lost to Minnesota. Seriously) that I don’t think they deserve to regardless, but the truth is maybe.

I’ll ask this one: if Penn State replaces Alabama with Syracuse, aren’t they undefeated and favored by 7+ in every remaining regular season game right now?

GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat jNW

by ckmneon on Oct 23, 2011 11:48 AM CDT reply actions

Top 15 team for sure.

I don’t know if PSU would crack the Top 10 since Bama seriously bumps up our SoS in the computers.

"This is being a Penn State fan. We’ll prove it, or we won’t. It’s not about proving it to them, it’s about proving to ourselves."

by mvrck on Oct 23, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions

Who knows or cares about the polls

the computers…I don’t know. Using Colley’s “play god,” adding a PSU win over Syracuse and removing PSU’s loss to Alabama moved PSU from #11 to #5 in the Colley Matrix (with rankings as of the end of week 7, the week 8 results aren’t in yet).

At that point, PSU would be Clemson. An ugly-yet-undefeated team with a handful of marginally respectable wins, but no great wins, unless you think Va Tech is considerably better than Syracuse, in which case you would be wrong.

GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat jNW

by ckmneon on Oct 23, 2011 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions

undefeated? yes

favored by 7 plus in every remaining game? not even close.

the people who set the lines don’t look that closely at won-loss record when setting lines, things like margin of victory and yards per play are weighed much more heavily. thats why oklahoma is a two touchdown favorite at kansas state this saturday.

if penn state had a 10 point win over syracuse instead of a 16 point loss to alabama, i doubt their future spreads would change a bit.

by Loretta8 on Oct 23, 2011 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions

Not by a long shot.

Penn State gets to travel to Camp Randall in the season finale. They wouldn’t be favored in that game if they were 11-0 and Wisconsin were 8-3.

by cwel87 on Oct 24, 2011 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions

(I am also assuming that you understand I am referencing the talent on each team and not talking about a generic 11-0 vs. a generic 8-3 at home)

by cwel87 on Oct 24, 2011 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions

Stanford?

I’m not so sure Oregon beats the Cardinal, and an undefeated PAC-12 team, even if that conference is down right now, will beat out Boise State for the shot at LSU-Alabama.

by Midnight Rambler on Oct 23, 2011 11:56 AM CDT reply actions

Probably would

and maybe should. A one loss Big Ten or Big 12 team would deserve it more than either.

GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat jNW

by ckmneon on Oct 23, 2011 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions

mmmm queso

Anyone looking for putrid defense need look no further than Evanston, where- as I predicted at SoP- the Cats made Matt McGloin look like Aaron Rodgers. Flag football teams throughout the Midwest are lining up for an opportunity to take on NU’s D.

by buckyor on Oct 23, 2011 12:08 PM CDT reply actions

I'm still waiting for Wisconsin to come up B1G

by cwel87 on Oct 24, 2011 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions

long way to go before the SEC vs SEC game happens

Clemson, Stanford and Ok State are all still undefeated and would be chosen ahead of the loser of the game.

"Your spelling and grammar errors belie a seriously skilled thought process"- therealCatnuts

by justsomehawkeyefan on Oct 23, 2011 1:51 PM CDT reply actions

oh and i guess Kansas State too, maybe even Boise

"Your spelling and grammar errors belie a seriously skilled thought process"- therealCatnuts

by justsomehawkeyefan on Oct 23, 2011 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Games left against top 30 teams amongst undefeated teams

Kansas State: 4
Alabama: 2*, but one is #29 Auburn
LSU: 2*, both in the top 11
Clemson: 1*, but also Wake Forest and Ga Tech, who are dangerous
Oklahoma State: 4
Boise State: 0, but TCU is #32
Stanford: 3*
Houston: 0, but SMU is #33

*Will have to play a conference CG, probably against a top 30 team

So I would bet on at least one team going undefeated between Houston and Boise. I would bet on the winner of Alabama — LSU, especially if it’s Alabama, to go undefeated, largely because I don’t think the SEC outside of Bama and LSU is any good.

I doubt very much that Kansas State, Oklahoma State, or Stanford will go undefeated. They just have too many losable games left.

So yeah, there is a ton of football left to be played, and one loss teams, while currently on the outside looking in, are not out of anything yet.

GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat jNW

by ckmneon on Oct 23, 2011 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Houston has zero shot period

im pretty sure they would take a three loss SEC team over Houston, fair or not.

"Your spelling and grammar errors belie a seriously skilled thought process"- therealCatnuts

by justsomehawkeyefan on Oct 23, 2011 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions

Oh it's fair

The best team they play all year is SMU (currently #33 Sagarin). The second and third best teams? #44 Tulsa and #71 UTEP.

The third best team on their schedule would be the #9 team in the B1G, the #11 team in the SEC, and #10 in the Big 12, only 7 spots ahead of being last (Kansas is #78).

If you don’t play a single top 30 team and the third best team you play is below #70, you should need to win 10 to be bowl eligible.

GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat jNW

by ckmneon on Oct 23, 2011 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Boise State is on line 1.

Not advocating for their position. But they seem to think losing no games to a bunch of nobodies is better than losing 1 game to somebody.

by Norm Parker's Amputated Toes on Oct 23, 2011 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Boise State's schedule is laughable compared to any non-Big East BCS schedule

And I’d agree that a 1 loss Big Ten, SEC, or Big 12 team deserves a MNC shot more than them, but Houston’s schedule is impressively terrible. Seriously, I’m proud of them for pulling it off.

Rankings reflect the current Sagarin overall rankings.

Top 30 teams:
Houston: 0
Boise State: 1

Top 70 teams:
Houston: 2
Boise State: 7

Teams ranked worse than #120:
Houston: 5 (!!!)
Boise State: 3

GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat jNW

by ckmneon on Oct 23, 2011 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions

That's atrocious

5 teams worse than 120? How does that happen!

Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.

Author @ Off Tackle Empire

by KennardHusker on Oct 24, 2011 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions

It's all Tulane's fault.

ALL OF IT.

Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Oct 24, 2011 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions

I would like to see this list for all of the unbeatens

just for comparison

So I tried the Barbasol and Rotel dip and I was very dissapointed!

by Amonra on Oct 25, 2011 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions

by cwel87 on Oct 24, 2011 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions

yeah thats not a knock on msu

i dont think anyone besides alabama could hang with lsu

3 through 12 in the SEC are worse than usual, but the top 2 are sick good.

by Loretta8 on Oct 23, 2011 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions

michigan state vs lsu would be just as ugly as michigan vs alabama last year.

Noted as a typo. I was merely stating if he chose either Michigan team to pinpoint as having a sorry postseason performance, he would not have been wrong.

It was also a joke. Lighten up

by cwel87 on Oct 24, 2011 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Michigan vs. Miss State

was also ugly so you are forgiven.

tO$U sucks-ALWAYS the right choice!

by nits4ever on Oct 24, 2011 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions

Not quite as ugly.

We wouldn’t win, but I don’t think we’d lose by 40+ either. Probably two or three scores.

I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.

by SpartanDan on Oct 25, 2011 12:38 AM CDT up reply actions