Post Week 9 - 2011 Bowl Projections
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 30, 2011 5:19 PM CDT
in Bowl Projections
Email
PrintI looked back through my bowl projections over the past few years. Generally by this point, it was pretty clear as to a general pecking order in the Big Ten. Sure, and upset or two may have messed with the order a touch. But for the most part, the league had a semblance of top-to-bottom. If you can find it this year, please chime in. Because the circles that we see now, make projecting what will happen ahead even more uncertain.
Is it just home field? Wisconsin beats Nebraska. Michigan State beats Wisconsin. Nebraska beats Michigan State. Ohio State fits in there somewhere, too. Is it just home field? Are those four pretty even teams? I'm really not sure anymore.
And what about Penn State? We're always attracted to the sizzle of an offense, but could their defense be good enough to ride to Indianapolis? Very quietly, something special could be happening in the Happy Valley. That two game division lead is nice. Of course, they have three very tough games left.
Nobody believes in Michigan, but they still sit at 7-1, with their toughest remaining games at home. Could they slip through?
And take Illinois, Iowa, and Purdue. Please.
As for the actual projections, let's remember that there are rules:
- The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
- The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Fiesta Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Orange Bowl.
- Until a team is officially bowl banned, we assume that they can and will go. So, no USC. Ohio State, Oregon, North Carolina, <ahem> Miami...you're in consideration until otherwise notified.
- If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will NOT be required to take a non-automatic qualifier. This was only required of the Rose Bowl the first time (2010 season) it occurred over the current four-year contract.
- The Insight Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Gator Bowl this year. It will rotate the other way next year.
Got it? Good. Let's get on to the projections.
 |
 |
 |
This is a pick of home field helping Alabama win this year's game of the century. Really, this comes down to: do you think Stanford can beat Oregon and Arizona State at home. After watching Luck play at USC, I'll take that bet this week. |
 |
 |
 |
Penn State? Can they beat Ohio State, Wisconsin and Nebraska with that defense? If they can take two of those three, they clinch the Leaders Division. I'm picking wins over the Huskers and Buckeyes. The Rose Bowl will take a 10-2 Ducks squad to replace Stanford. |
 |
 |
 |
Oklahoma beats Okie State to win the league. 10-2 Wisconsin gets an at large bid and a great matchup. The Fiesta has a slew of 10 win B1G teams to choose from. |
 |
 |
 |
Alabama-LSU loser will go here. The Sugar Bowl will be left with a choice between Boise and the Big East champ. That will mean Broncos on Bourbon Street. |
 |
 |
 |
I'm sticking with Clemson, but I wonder if Virginia Tech could get them in an ACC title game rematch. This week's West Virginia-Cincy game will all but decide the Big East title. |
 |
 |
 |
I have Nebraska finishing at 10-2, but missing the Big Ten title game. Their new hotness will give them the edge is the selection order over the other 10 win teams. Arkansas is the third best team in the SEC. The question is: are they any good? The last two weeks have me doubting. |
 |
 |
 |
I have Michigan losing to Nebraska and finishing 10-2. They, too, miss the Big Ten title game. Georgia wins the East, but loses to the Alabama-LSU winner in the SEC title game. |
 |
 |
 |
I have Sparty winning out to finish 10-2, but losing the B1G Title Game in a defensive slugfest to Penn State. Beyond, the two Oklahoma schools, the Big 12's selection order is as messy as the Big Ten's. |
 |
 |
 |
I have Ohio State losing to Michigan and Penn State to finish 7-5. And so ends the Fickel era. The South Carolina-Arkansas game this weekend will be huge for bowl order in the SEC. |
 |
 |
 |
Will Ron Zook be around to coach this game? Why do I love college football? Tech beats Oklahoma in Norman and loses to Iowa State in Lubbock. |
 |
 |
 |
What was it about Purdue's loss at Michigan that saved them from the Queso? Nothing. But they'll host an Iowa team that is hapless on the road. That win, with an Oaken Bucket victory, gets them to six. |
 |
 |
 |
Because the B1G can't fill the bowl, FIU gets the shot to play MAC champ Toledo. |
 |
|
|
When you can't get to six wins, you're On the Couch with the Queso Bowl. Indiana is eliminated. Minnesota will be with their next loss. Northwestern can only afford one more loss, and with Michigan State and Nebraska on their schedule, that seems unlikely. Iowa has been bowl eligible ten straight seasons. Only Ohio State has a longer current streak in the B1G. That said, where do they find win number six? Denard is a horrible matchup for their slow defense. Sparty is poised to end their run of futility in Iowa City (if they can't do it with this team against that team, when will they?). Iowa would have to play better by a factor of 10 to win on the road in West Lafayette or Lincoln. I hate this, but I think Iowa may be a 5-7 team this year. |
141 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I like MSU over PSU in a hypothetical Championship Game
I think our defense and offense (as bad as it can be with Roushar running it) are better than their defense and offense.
Food for thought: MSU owns the league’s best road victory for that 10-7 win in early October. No road teams won this weekend either.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Technically
Didn’t Northwestern?
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 30, 2011 5:56 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
It seems like Iowa was projected much higher last week.
I wonder what happened?
Losing to Minnesota will do that to you.
"This is being a Penn State fan. We’ll prove it, or we won’t. It’s not about proving it to them, it’s about proving to ourselves."
Also, this is hilarious
Minnesota can still technically win the Legends. Illinois has been eliminated from winning the Leaders though.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
You have to be shitting me.
The nebraska loss at wisky was on the road, before nebraska started clicking defense. Many key players were green on the defense, and even the OC is/was green.
For two whole years I heard from OSU-fan friends that nobody could score more than 21 pts or rush for over 100 yards, yada yada. 34 points. 220+ rush yards.
Disergard the minnesota game, but then its all about MSU having a top 10 D in every category and how if you shut Martinez down, NU has nothing. They only allow 88 rush yards, yada yada. 170 rush yards. MSU held to 3 points.
And Penn St goes to the rose bowl?
I can’t help but think that this pick has a healthy dose of homerism and “Nebraska can’t possibly be as good as the rest of us, this is the big ten!! We play Defense!”
by Fake Pelini on Oct 30, 2011 5:34 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Ahh, yes.
Fake Pelini accusing Bama Hawkeye of being a homer… And, y’know, picking Iowa to not make a bowl. Yes, this makes sense.
That was less a team homer
and more and conference homer.
by Fake Pelini on Oct 30, 2011 5:59 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Odd, I thought Nebraska was in the Big Ten now
by MountainTiger on Oct 30, 2011 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Missed the point.
What I’m saying is, that came off as if it still had the sentiment all of us went back and forth on in the preseason, that NU could win the big ten right out of the gate. And this pick(well both wisky AND psu) making BCS games and not NU, came off as if to say “we can’t let NU come be at the top, we’re the big ten and they’ve played lesser competition all their lives .”
by Fake Pelini on Oct 30, 2011 6:07 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Funny.
I read the projections again and saw none of that.
But this “we’re in the B1G now, but they just won’t respect us!” line is cute. Go back to reminding us about how many national titles you’ve won?
I mean
don’t go crying foul then not have support of Bama Hawkeye’s statements to back you up.
Or just keep making butthurt claims.
Just watch out for this week's trap game versus Northwestern
Yes, Rex Burkhead will probably single-handedly run for 300 yards and 4 TDs against the Big Ten’s second worst defense (man is Indiana’s defense bad)
But that Northwestern offense is at least legit. Maybe they can pull out an upset in a track-meet type game?
And no...
I’m not serious. Nebraska is probably going to murder Northwestern. But it is a trap game for Nebraska, what with MSU this past week, and Penn State in 2 weeks.
I was just about to post on your original comment
Before you put this up. I was going to say “One of my friends (Iowa fan) keeps telling we’re going to lose to NU. I think he says that out of frustration, but god I hope NU doesn’t overlook NW, cause THAT WOULD SUCK! And ill have to hear about it forever.”
by Fake Pelini on Oct 30, 2011 6:32 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
shit
I just noticed I called NW NU.
Where the hell’s the edit button?!?! Fuck
by Fake Pelini on Oct 30, 2011 6:35 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
You had it right the first time
As the new kids on the block, you take what tag we give you, UNL.
by buckyor on Oct 30, 2011 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
No...I think it has to go to the school that's actually put NU on the map.
If the WWL has an article in the NCAAF football section with “NU” in the title, one of every 1000 persons will think of Northwestern. And that one person probably lives in Evanston, too.
by Fake Pelini on Oct 30, 2011 11:17 PM CDT up reply actions
You're the University of Nebraska.
By every logical assessment, that makes you U.N.
Northwestern-Nebraska could be interesting. Northwestern has struggled with teams that could throw the deep ball, or at least had the threat of play action (something Nebraska does not have). And they actually did a decent job of bottling up the run against Illinois. Against the best defense in the conference (PSU), they managed to put up 24 points in the first half (and were in position twice to put up more points), and held PSU’s offense to just 7 2nd half points).
Burkhead/Martinez will likely run all over Northwestern’s porous defense. But the script for Northwestern beating Nebraska is at least conceivable — Persa/Colter spread the ball around and score, the defense forces Martinez to beat them deep, and the Cats win a shootout. Very long odds that the Cats can do that (Nebraska’s defense is tough, they’re playing at home, Northwestern’s defense is awful), but it’s not beyond the realm of imagination.
Actually it's "jNW"
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
by RWReese on Oct 31, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Sparty got screwed scheduling wise
Sparty wasn’t actually worse than Nebraska yesterday. They were just too tired to play.
The Spartans were just gassed. After 3 consecutive physical and emotional games against Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin how could they be anything else?
Whereas, Nebraska had a bye week and then a scrimmage (the Gopher game) to warm up for Dantonio.
They play that game on any other Saturday this year and Nebraska gets taken to the woodshed.
I don't agree
It wasn’t a physical problem, it was coaching. Nebraska played cover 2 the whole game and our OC called for deep passes and stretch runs all day, despite earning almost 5 ypc with our top running back, primarily on power running.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
A little of column A, a little of column B.
I think we would have had trouble anyway because of the schedule – two massive games in a row while Nebraska’s had an actual bye and a virtual bye (offer not valid for Iowa) is a very real disadvantage. But the playcalling certainly didn’t help.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
I can't say I know that better playcalling would have won th game
But we certainly gave away any shot of winning with the strategy Roushar used
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
I disagree.
I think Nebraska really wasn’t ready at all for the Wisconsin game. The defense wasn’t clicking, the offensive line had just found its way, and the new offensive coordinating was and still is just learning. But the team improves every week, and I think after this week its shown it probably even surpassed Wisconsin as far as how good it is, considering that since the loss Nebraska has beat two teams who outplayed Wisconsin.
by Fake Pelini on Oct 30, 2011 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Doesn't really fly
Wisconsin still hammered you and everyone knows that the transitive property sucks. No one has been winning on the road this year. You guys hit two more road games in two weeks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if you drop both of them.
Boiler Up, Go Blue
by lonewolf371 on Oct 30, 2011 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions
This is true.
I think it could be either of those two. Either Nebraska has improved quite a bit, or every team in the big ten just sucks on the road.
by Fake Pelini on Oct 30, 2011 11:55 PM CDT up reply actions
More transitive property fun
New Mexico State>Minnesota>Iowa
Mikael Granlund: The Great Hope
by NorthernStar on Oct 30, 2011 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I love that logic
“They play that game on any other Saturday this year and Nebraska gets taken to the woodshed.”
Sure. Nebraska has an AWFUL team. Michigan State just got screwed by their schedule, which we Nebraska fans can’t relate to at all because we have the easiest schedule in the Big 10 this year. Right?
Thanks for the laugh.
Got the point
Thought the point was silly. Bama thinks Nebraska will lose again, and your response is “he’s just hating because we’re new.” Sure, whatever.
by MountainTiger on Oct 30, 2011 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
You seem to be confusing us with another conference
we LIKE to see the rest of the conference do well, it does NOT mean we actually root for the conference itself.
In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.
by Pariahwulfen on Oct 30, 2011 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Please
Can we disregard all of the Minnesota games? Please?
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 30, 2011 5:58 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Ahli, didn't get to see the Floyd game yesterday
Are you feeling better about Kill’s Gophers? Would you say the team is improving?
I feel better in a cathartic sort of way.
I feel very happy for the team and our fanbase. And I’m VERY happy that we still have Floyd. But it doesn’t change my outlook on the whole season much. I’m more hopeful that we can pull out a W versus Northwestern or maybe Illinois if they continue the Zook swoon. But mostly I’m hoping the team builds on the overcoming adversity theme and continues to improve and that they avoid beatdowns at MSU and versus WI.
It doesn’t change my long term outlook for Kill and the program since I was already comfortable with the plan he’s laying out.
Agreed,
If we lose out the rest of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised, but I guarantee there’ll be more people saying “You beat Iowa (again) with those players, so why can’t you beat ____?? Because Jerry Kill is ____ and should be fired immediately”
I think there’s just as many shocked Gopher fans as Iowa (again) fans after this weekend – myself included.
When we get the Pig, the Jug and the Axe, we'll have one hell of a picnic
@NC Buckeye
I would say that Saturday, for the first since week 1, the Gophers looked like a real Big Ten football team.
They played smart (less dumb penalties). The Gophers ran the ball well with both Gray and Bennett. The offensive line finally put the pieces together and played a good game (gave up no sacks).
And the Defense….looked like an entirely different unit than the one I’ve seen all year. The LBs were actually, you know, tackling people. The D forced 3 sacks (we hadn’t had 3 sacks all year I don’t think). The game plan was impressive. Several times the Gophers blitzed VandenHawkeye, and he had no idea it was coming.
And the coaching was top notch. The surprise onside kick down 5 with 8 minutes left in the game? Brilliant. Multiple young Gophers made huge contributions, and played better than I’d ever seen them play.
The Gophers are still a bad team. But before yesterday they were historically bad. Today they are only the 3rd worst team in the Big Ten.
This has been the most painful year I’ve ever had as a Gopher fan. Saturday made this season seem exponentially better.
Hopefully, Kill can win a couple more games and use whatever momentum that gains to pull out a decent recruiting class
Said it in the summer and still think it's correct
Kill is the best new coach in the B1G this year. Look for improvements week to week. Also pay attention to the recruiting reports. That will give you an indication of where the program is going. We’re starting to see the same type of improvement with Fickell (Sadly, Fick might not get a chance for a second season.)
Do not despair at this year’s record.
Compare Kill to Brian Kelly. Even when getting body-slammed, Jerry Kill takes the moment to teach a player what he did wrong. Meanwhile, Kelly blames his losses on inherited Weiss players.
by NC_Buckeye on Oct 31, 2011 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
NC I'm worried about recruiting.
I like a lot of the current crop of Gopher recruits (especially 4 star dual threat QB phenom Phillip Nelson).
However, I think there is a lack of depth in the current class. Minnesota is ranked at the bottom of the Big Ten for 2012 recruiting. Given the lack of talent/experience/depth on the roster, Kill has to recruit extremely well in the next 2 years or he is effed.
Recruiting is going to be tough for a year (maybe two)
But each win like the Iowa game is going to make it easier.
Also Kill and staff have a reputation for being “developers” of talent (like Ferentz at Iowa). Taking 2 star recruits and turning them into 3 star players or 3 star recruits and turning them into 4 star players. So I’m going to add a third indicator which is how Kill’s players are doing in the NFL draft. It’s all kind of circular. Developing players will result in better drafts which will result in better recruits which will result in more wins which will result in better recruits. I see Minnesota getting to a similar level as Tiller had Purdue. Giant killer. Consistent 8 & 9 win seasons plus bowl wins.
I’ve been preaching on 11W that the Buckeye fanbase needs to focus on “stability, patience, and perseverance” re Fickell turning into a good HC. (At this time I don’t think it’s within our collective character to do this… so we’re going to get stuck with Meyer for 2-3 years until he decides he’d much rather be an analyst than a coach. Apparently, loyalty is not a Buckeye trait.)
The Gopher fanbase doesn’t have that disadvantage though. I think Kill can fly under the radar for a year or two while he’s quietly building this team.
re-watches surprise onside kick, laughs so hard tears come streaming down face...
still amazed Minnesota recovered a surprise onside kick and, the only Hawkeye who noticed got lit up like a Christmas tree (#3 for the Hawkeyes is probably hurting today).
If Wisconsin and Nebraska are both sitting at 10-2 at season's end
and the Fiesta Bowl already has Oklahoma lined up, they’ll be falling all over themselves to set up an OU-Nebraska matchup to bring back a little good publicity to their game.
by Skerz90 on Oct 30, 2011 5:43 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Great point
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 30, 2011 5:57 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I actually think UW might be the least appealing of the 10 win teams in that situation
Michigan has the return to glory factor
Nebraska is an OU rival
MSU is desperate for a BCS game so they can stop going to Florida and would be the team that is considered the 2nd best B1G team almost y default for going to Indianapolis. Would also have the best conference record.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
I'm with you a little bit.
But I’m torn on the UW-MSU debate. I think Michigan and Nebraska (my #1 for it for the rivalry aspect) could jump above them both. But I struggle with:
(1) the BCS caring how much MSU’s been to Florida, and
(2) MSU being B1G #2 by default just for an appearance in the B1G championship game, especially if they lose.
I searched this whole thread for this comment before I posted it again.
There’s still a lot of football to be played but I bet the Fiesta Bowl would love to pair Nebraska with Oklahoma.
In the deed, the glory.
Corn Nation!
Follow @Aaron_Musfeldt
by Aaron Musfeldt on Oct 31, 2011 6:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Absolutely
If Nebraska is in a position for a BCS bid, the Fiesta committee would jump at an opportunity to invite Nebraska, especially setting up the old rivals. It would be such a ratings grab and money game.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
by KennardHusker on Oct 31, 2011 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions
I think a 10-2 Oregon team is still more appealing
than a 10-2 Nebraska or Wisconsin. With losses only to Stanford and LSU, they’ll certainly be much higher ranked.
Smaller fanbases = lower ratings and butts in the stands
Wisconsin and Nebraska can both fill any bowl venue by themselves, Oregon can’t say that.
In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.
by Pariahwulfen on Oct 30, 2011 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Also, it's not about Stanford beating Oregon to settle the NC
It’s about Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma. If OK State can run the table, it doesn’t matter what Stanford does.
True.
I just don’t think that they can do it.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 30, 2011 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions
While I appreciate the vote of confidence
I just don’t see PSU pulling 2 wins out of the next 3 games. And then winning the conference championship as well. The defense has played lights-out, and is arguably the best unit in the conference. But the offense is very. very. bad. Redd is absurdly good and Moye has bright moments when he doesn’t have the dropsies, but the QB situation is just as bad as it was in August and it’s seriously limiting the offense.
I can see sneaking one W the rest of the way, and a 9-3 season for this offense is a victory. For this defense, it’s a damn tragedy.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
2009 Nebraska shakes its head
There is nothing more frustrating than knowing you only need 14 points each game and there’s a strong chance it isn’t going to happen. Redd is very good, but a good RB only gets you so far when you have nothing @ QB. I think that PSU goes 1-2 in its next three as well, but that win is probably coming at home over Nebraska. This will be an outstanding ending to the season!
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
by KennardHusker on Oct 30, 2011 6:49 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Damn! You picked MSU over Nebraska in Lincoln,
and now PSU over Nebraska? Are you really from Nebraska?
I see Nebraska & PSU more or less a standoff, with both Ds playing a big role in this game. But PSU has no offense, Nebraska does, and that is going to be the difference. After 4 quarters, Nebraska will manage to score 1 or 2 times against PSU, and winning the game.
I also think Nebraska has a good chance to take Michigan at home, and we’ll end up playing PSU again in Indy, and making it 2-0 against PSU, and heading to the Rose Bowl!!
Yeah baby!!
Seriously love Nebraska fans ignoring this Saturday's game...
…against Northwestern.
There is almost ZERO chance Northwestern pulls off the upset (Burkhead could run for 500+ yards on our terrible defense)….but the chance that does exist is helped if the team (much like the fanbase appears to be doing) doesn’t take Northwestern seriously.
Keep in mind, Northwestern’s offense (since Persa has returned) has scored pretty well on everyone they’ve played, and surpassed the average points allowed by every B1G defense they’ve faced. And according to Football Outsiders’ COVAR statistic, no team in college football plays up to its opponent (good or bad) as much as Northwestern. Nebraska will get everything Northwestern’s offense can throw at them…..right when Nebraska is riding the MSU victory hangover and looking ahead to PSU/Michigan.
In other words, Northwestern to beat a 17.5 point spread might not be the worst bet next weekend.
It's like they're confident that the charms
buried around Memorial stadium will counteract Fitzgerald’s wizardry.
They probably will....
…but I’ve seen many confident teams overlook a game against Northwestern (2009 Iowa anyone?) to their detriment. And this Northwestern offense right now may be playing better than any offense in Fitz’s tenure…..
Too bad this offense got a defense that might be the worst in Northwestern history.
Has NW ever played against a Cover 2 defense? Cuz apparently MSU has not.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
And Cousins throws into triple coverage again...
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
by KennardHusker on Nov 1, 2011 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Of all the reasons Iowa lost the 2009 game
I’m 100% certain “overlooking” jNW wasn’t one of them. Last year? Yes. But not in 2009.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Those charms
seem to have been defunct over the last decade or so. We gotta get somebody on that.
I really don’t see Northwestern as an afterthought team. From my limited knowledge of that program (and it is quite limited) I’ve gotten the impression that they’ve made significant strides over the last few years. A team that used to be a channel click for me became a team I wanted to watch. Persa is a big reason for that naturally, but I’ve also been impressed with Fitzgerald. And in college you can take a team with inferior athletic measurables and give them a great coach, and they’ll win games that on paper they should have no business being in. (Bill Snyder in Manhattan might be one the better examples of that playing out.)
We do get them at home, and we’ve had a bye, a pretty easy time of it up in Minnesota, and one very physical game that saw a number of our guys limp to the sideline last week. We should be relatively healthy, and like Chadnudj said, the Northwestern defense is a liability. I like our chances, but I’m betting not my car on it or anything. Northwestern wins games that people think they shouldn’t. There is no reason to automatically assume that won’t play out this Saturday.
But I doubt it. I like our chances.
Dammit Chad
It’s only a Trap game if you don’t already have someone pounding them in the ear every five minutes saying “… hey, don’t overlook Northwestern!” And then arguing about NU vs. NW vs. UNL vs. jNU just to antagonize doesn’t help…
And yes, 3 people posting on the internet = / = waking up the opposing team.
Besides, don’t you have to go take a phone call from “2002” or something?
by RotoJeff on Oct 31, 2011 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Ugh... I didn't want to pick either
I painfully remember Nebraska’s last trip to Penn State, as do you probably. I will root for Nebraska with every ounce of my will, but it would not surprise me to see our team lose a close one there. I do think we can go 3-1 down the stretch, but it will be tough no matter what. I’m kind of a realist after the past few years. The second I start thinking we’re going to win every game, we get beat. If Nebraska shuts down the NW offense this weekend, I’ll feel even better!
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
by KennardHusker on Oct 31, 2011 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think BamaHawkeye sees us going to the conference championship
per what I read, and I may be wrong, he thinks we’ll beat Nebraska & OSU, and then lose to Wisconsin. If this happens, Wisconsin wins the division and goes to the championship…but then he says Wisconsin is 10-2. So, not sure how the math plays here…
Fire Dan Snyder
for clarification
if Wisconsin wins out, and goes to the Conf Championship game, they won’t be 10-2 to a bowl; they’ll be either 11-2 or 10-3.
Fire Dan Snyder
This is correct
Somehow, Penn State has a two game lead on the rest of the Leaders Division. They can lose to Ohio State or Wisconsin and still take the crown. If they drop both, they’ll likely lose it on tiebreakers.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Oct 30, 2011 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Win any combination of two of
Nebraska at home, or OSU or Wisconsin on the road.
I think they definitely lose to UW, probably lose to OSU and possibly lose to Nebraska (I’d lean Big Red there)
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
He has us in the Rose Bowl
So I’d say he’s picking PSU to win the conference.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
No...PSU will win two of the final three.
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
Ah, Purdue-Iowa
Pretty sure both fanbases are expecting a loss in that game
Judging by last night...
Ohio State will not lose to Michigan. The Buckeye defensive line is too damn good. Penn State is a tossup because their offense is still suspect and the game is at The Shoe…. and the Buckeyes get Posey back, which is HUGE since they’ll FINALLY have a deep threat. Braxton can throw a great deep ball, but he currently has no receivers that can catch it.
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Oct 30, 2011 7:08 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Wait
when did Posey learn how to catch a ball? Has he been working with a jugs machine his entire suspension?
In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.
by Pariahwulfen on Oct 30, 2011 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions
PSU v tO$U will be a PSU win
“Their defense is still suspect?!?!” Dear Lord.
The PSU defense is much better than last year. McGloin, while nowhere near a great Qb is making much better decisions than last year, and the O-line is greatly improved over last year. Remember the first half of the game last year? I’m thinking that without the terrible play in the second half. Obviously this is IMHO.
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
My bad...I mis-read your post as defense suspect. Yeah, the offense
is suspect but it’s better than last year’s version.
"Illegitimus non Carborundum!" (Don't let the bastards wear you down)
Iowa will be Bowl-eligible.
As bad as Iowa performed yesterday, I don’t see them dropping all four of their remaining games.
They get Michigan and Michigan State at Kinnick, where Iowa has been far better than they have been on the road. I think they get one of those games.
Nebraska looks like a much tougher game for Iowa than it did two weeks ago, and Purdue is actually looking like a tossup now.
Still, I see Iowa winning at least one game, and two is not unlikely.
Of course, I made about fifty guarantees that Iowa would stomp Minnesota, so what do I know? (I’ve never been happier to be so wrong as I was yesterday.)
by Midnight Rambler on Oct 30, 2011 7:21 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
OT: The new Simpsons "Treehouse of Terror" really sucks through the first two segments.
by Midnight Rambler on Oct 30, 2011 7:23 PM CDT reply actions
I thought the first segment was ok
Second two were weak as hell.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
No kidding
I was checking work emails for tomorrow and had it on in the background… I wasn’t even watching it and I had to turn it off
When we get the Pig, the Jug and the Axe, we'll have one hell of a picnic
I made my one OT post, so I wasn't going to say anything more...
But “Allen Gregory” is bad. Really, really bad.
Jonah Hill on film playing a fat stoner: funny.
Jonah Hill in a cartoon voicing a precocious seven-year old: un-fucking-bearable.
I wasted fifteen minutes I could have spent watching a one-sided Eagles-Cowboys game on that abortion of a show.
by Midnight Rambler on Oct 30, 2011 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Fox's lineup really sucks
I watched the last two parts of the Simpsons episode, then whatever that show about the 7 year old aristocrat, and turned it off after 2 minutes. How do those shows even make it on the air?
When we get the Pig, the Jug and the Axe, we'll have one hell of a picnic
Yeah everyone is looking even
No one can win a road game against any of the top 6 teams (except MSU over Ohio State).
Boiler Up, Go Blue
Iowa's going to a bowl
It may not be a good one, but they’re going to find a way to six wins.
And after watching that complete shitstorm that was yesterday’s Penn State-Illinois game, Pat Fitzgerald ought to be shamed sufficiently to perform ritual sepukku at the 50 yard line of Dyche Stadium (the real name of our field) for losing to those two mangy dogs.
Sadly
I think you have Iowa ranked too highly there.
Left for dead after that MSU debacle, OSU is probably the most likely to play in title game. Remarkable.
Indiana and Purdue should be cakewalks, PSU has a worse offense than us and a comparable defense, and were at home so logic says we have the advantage there (plus PSU isn’t beating Nebraska and Wisconsin with that offense, they’re probably going to lose 3 in a row), and maybe I’m just spoiled but I have no fear of Michigan, because, well, as Fat and Arrogant likes to say, they’re Michigan. This is still our damn conference.
"You might as well appeal against the thunderstorm."
-William T. Sherman, the Battle of Atlanta
"this is still our damn conference"
The Big Ten wouldn’t be the same without that patented Buckeye Hubris.
Nice to see you all come out with your chests puffed out after a few wins.
by Artiefufkin10 on Oct 31, 2011 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions
What did you expect?
After an offseason’s worth of every Big Ten fanbase (sana OSU) partaking in a gigantic schadenfreude party over the pontential demise of Ohio State.
I’m not one who’s going to beat his chest just yet. But let’s not forget who started this. A little chest thumping is to be expected after all the crap thrown our way this offseason.
Looking forward to the Lions coming to the Shoe. Should be epic.
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Oct 31, 2011 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions
I appreciate the "meta" characteristic of your handle..
That said. Who started what? the ribbing? You honestly cannot be surprised by the reactions of the other fan bases, since Tressel decided to play under a different set of rules. Its over and done, but why not wait until the B1G championship game to start proclaiming its your conference?
The game should be good, if you don’t mind being treated to 4 quarters of caveman football.
by Artiefufkin10 on Oct 31, 2011 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Good points.
I guess I’m just taking a pre-emptive approach to prepare OTE for some serious chest-thumping from my Buckeye brothers should the next few weeks ago in our favor. It is to be expected. I’m not sure I’ll be thumping my chest too much, because – to be honest – I sort of expected this team to be in this position. Despite all that has happened, this is arguably still the most talented team in the Big Ten. I was kind of embarassed that the students rushed the field Saturday. But oh well. It was an emotional offseason. I think we all could have taken losing the Tat 5 forever. But losing Tress was the toughest. But that’s life I guess.
And I LOVE caveman football. I hope it’s just like 2008 when it was 6-6 at halftime. Those games are the best. I also hope it snows and we can see a great matchup of Silas vs. Boom.
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Oct 31, 2011 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Different set of rules?
Care to explain that statement? I don’t mean the espin told me to believe that it was true version either. Have you read the NOI? Have you read the transcripts? Have you checked your facts when making that statement? I don’t think you have.
Eh?
By “different set of rules” I meant playing players who were ineligible as per the rules. It doesn’t get any more basic than that.
by Artiefufkin10 on Nov 1, 2011 8:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Really?
How many players would that be? Are you just going on what espin told you to believe? Did you actually research any of this, or did you just want to label the team cheaters to feel some sense of superiority? I asked some very basic questions.
You can feel free to read my post near the bottom
in response to your whole “your conference” argument.
Of course I'll bite.
No. This ain’t your grandfather’s conference buddy, Get ready for some change, I’ll leave it at that.
by Fake Pelini on Oct 31, 2011 11:37 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Long line at the tattoo parlor...
When we get the Pig, the Jug and the Axe, we'll have one hell of a picnic
Uh, that would be
THE…Ohio State University.
:)
Some people just need a high five. In the face. With a chair.
It's not really hubris
it’s just part of the damn name.
In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.
Funny
How they can go from “we rushed the field because no one expected us to beat Wisconsin” back to “this is our damn conference” in the span of a day.
Boiler Up, Go Blue
by lonewolf371 on Oct 30, 2011 11:51 PM CDT reply actions 7 recs
Rushing the field for beating Wisconsin was embarassing. And it still is our damn conference. Watch.
"You might as well appeal against the thunderstorm."
-William T. Sherman, the Battle of Atlanta
Curious:
Do you support Fickle as a coach?
"This is being a Penn State fan. We’ll prove it, or we won’t. It’s not about proving it to them, it’s about proving to ourselves."
Support him? Of course. Think he is the long term answer? No. He's in over his head, and makes 4 or 5 headscratching decisions a game that good coaches don't do.
"You might as well appeal against the thunderstorm."
-William T. Sherman, the Battle of Atlanta
Ok so, to recap:
You have an offense that has been slightly more productive than Penn States,
24.5 ppg vs 21.78, against defenses that have been allowing 22.99ppg and 22.07 ppg respectively. You are scoring on average, a point and a half above your opponents average. PSU has been scoring on average a point below their opponents average.
Average rank of OSU’s opponents scoring defense: ~46
Average rank of PSU’s opponents scoring defense: ~51.22 giving Indiana State a grade of 121.
Against defenses in the top 35, OSU has twice scored below your opponents average PPG allowed, and twice exceeded it.
Against defenses in the top 35 nation, Penn State scored above their season average for two games, and below for two games.
Defensively, Ohio State has been decent. They post good numbers for scoring defense, takeaways, etc. Nothing new under the sun. They are a good, if not great defense.
For Penn State, the defense is probably the best we’ve had since 2004/2005. Possibly even since 1986. They held the #1 team in the nation to 12 points below their average, and by far their lowest total of the year, despite losing time of possession, and the offense giving up three turnovers. They are generating a ridiculous number of turnovers, and have still not given up a touchdown outside the Red Zone year. More importantly, this is a defense that knows how to finish a game. Time after time this year, when they needed to make a stop, they manned up and made it.
So you have two teams, one with a moderately better offense and moderately worse defense, both with coaching staffs that leave you wondering at some points, and both with a pretty heavy stake in the game squaring off…and you feel it fit to declare the conference yours without a snap of that game having been played?
I don’t know about you, but everything else being equal (in this case, things are remarkably equal) I will take the team with the better defense ten times out of ten.
This isn’t your conference. It’s a whole new paradigm where everything is up for grabs and a decade of cheating doesn’t suddenly entitle you to claim ownership without settling it on the field.
"This is being a Penn State fan. We’ll prove it, or we won’t. It’s not about proving it to them, it’s about proving to ourselves."
by mvrck on Oct 31, 2011 1:19 AM CDT up reply actions 8 recs
"... and a decade of cheating..."
Your analysis was good up until that line.
Ohio State has not been cheating for a decade and you know this, so stop whining. If you have some evidence the NCAA doesn’t, by all means feel free to call them.
Furthermore, let me set something straight: getting a new tattoo does not effect the game of football. Last time I checked, these tattoos did not award superpowers to the players. Besides, even if Tressel had turned them in, they’d have probably received a 4-5 game suspension, which means they would have been back in time to beat Penn State. So please stop whining.
Other than that, it was a good post.
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Oct 31, 2011 7:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Don't forget
that being a successful college athlete involves dealing with the challenges off the field as well. Many student athletes struggle with finding the time to balance classroom time, studying, and finding money to make car payments and food. If a large number of football players on one team are able to avoid these obstacles by cheating, it’s an advantage (however small you may feel it is) that the other team may not have.
Also, I think it’s been almost a decade since the investigations surrounding Maurice Clarette got started.
by rzor on Oct 31, 2011 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
How many college students actually have a nice enough car to require car payments?
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
About Clarett...
None of his infractions occured pior to or during the only season he played (2002). And once they came to light, he never played another down for OSU.
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Oct 31, 2011 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions
An Iowa blog can't even have a nice article without an OSU fan stopping in to swing his dick around in everyone's face.
That’s another embarrassment.
by coachKofPA on Oct 31, 2011 9:44 AM CDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Have you payed attention to the last 10 years?
tOSU has more BCS bowl appearances than the entire conference COMBINED. Who is the program that won the conference’s NC? You think because you beat a powerful Temple team that you are now the class of the conference? Have you paid any attention to who you have played? It would take one helluva run to proclaim the conference supremacy by any other team.
I would just like to say...
LOL @ Iowa
/points and laughs
//goes back to pasting MSU’s offense onto the sides of milk cartons
///cries
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
How was your trip to Lincoln last weekend?
I know the result was not what you wanted but, ignoring that, how did you find the atmosphere there in Memorial Stadium, and before & after the game?
Had a good time.
Fans were very friendly (almost freakishly so) and the town was nice. I think I left a large portion of my liver somewhere in Omaha.
To be honest, I wasn’t that impressed by the noise level in the stadium, but the sea of red was visually imposing.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
Good to hear.
I’m cautiously optimistic heading to Lincoln next weekend. Not about the game, obviously, but about the atmosphere and having a good Saturday at Memorial, before, during, and after.
Someone done went dressed up as Kirk Cousins this weekend and accidentally stumbled onto Memorial Field in a drunken stupor
That, and his wingman the night before was Dan Roushar.
As I said to my NEB friend after the game....
I could’ve played QB for either team in that game and the result would’ve been the same.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanShots on Off Tackle Empire
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
