Post Week 11 - 2011 Bowl Projections
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 7:41 AM CST
in Bowl Projections
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PrintRemember when people were doing their annual freak out because there were going to be too many undefeated teams? As it stands, I think we'll end up with two, but one of them is Houston. Boise's field goal kicking killed their undefeated dreams for a second straight year. Stanford couldn't withstand Oregon's second-half onslaught for a second straight year. And the power of the every-week playoff rolls on.
In the B1G, things have officially been turned up to 10. Barring an uprising by Indiana or Minnesota, the Big Ten will have ten bowl eligible teams for the first time ever. That's great, except the Big Ten only has seven post-BCS tie-ins. And, the Pac 12, ACC, and SEC look like they're having years in which they will fill all of their bowl slots. I hope that I'm wrong on this, but it's looking likely that someone eligible will be left out. The league hasn't faced that since 2007.
As for the projections, let's remember that there are rules:
- The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
- The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Fiesta Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Orange Bowl.
- Until a team is officially bowl banned, we assume that they can and will go. So, no USC. Ohio State, Oregon, North Carolina, <ahem> Miami...you're in consideration until otherwise notified.
- If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will NOT be required to take a non-automatic qualifier. This was only required of the Rose Bowl the first time (2010 season) it occurred over the current four-year contract.
- The Insight Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Gator Bowl this year. It will rotate the other way next year.
Got it? Good. Let's get on to the projections.
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When the scene of the one-loss teams is surveyed, I suspect that voters will elevate Oklahoma over Oregon and Alabama simply to avoid a rematch in the title game. |
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Seriously, how hard is Jim Delany pulling for Wisconsin to win the Leaders? Do you think that he wants Penn State or Ohio State in his first title game? With those story lines? |
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Could the Fiesta choose the 10-2 Michigan/Nebraska winner over either of these teams? Yes, and the B1G will be lobbying hard for it. More likely, though, the bowl goes with these two one-loss squads. |
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I suspect that undefeated Houston will finish above one-loss Boise in the polls. As long as that's in the Top 14 (and it will be), they'll go to New Orleans. We probably need Boise and Houston to each lose once more for this spot to be open for picking a 10-2 B1G team. |
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I think that Virginia Tech will win the rematch over Clemson to get here. Cincy wins the Big East, but as of today, six of the eight teams are still in the race. |
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This looks to be 10-2 Nebraska/Michigan winner versus 10-2 Arkansas. Should Arkansas upset LSU on Black Friday, then this could be the Tigers or Tide, depending on how the BCS standings play out. |
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10-3 Legends champ Sparty versus 10-3 SEC East Champ Georgia Great matchup. |
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9-3 Michigan might get picked over Sparty for the Outback Bowl. As I have it, Denard vs. RG3 makes for a great game. |
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Here's where we find out just how radioactive Penn State is. At 9-3 (or even 8-4) they'll have a better record than anyone else on the board. But, will a bowl want them now? This is likely to be either a 7 win Vanderbilt team or a 6 win SEC team. |
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Here starts the parade of the mediocre B1G teams. The Iowa-Purdue winner finishes at 7-5. I think that sends them to Houston to play one of three 6-win Big 12 schools. |
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I have Ohio State losing to Penn State and Michigan to end the season at 6-6. They could just as easily finish at 8-4 and go to the Insight Bowl. Look for the Tulsa-Houston loser to go here. |
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The Pizza Bowl looks to increase interest by staging an in-state matchup. Illinois should get its 7th win over Minnesota in the finale (and yes, a 6 win team can be selected before a 7 win team). |
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Jim Delany should be in phone communication with this game by now. It's the best available landing spot for an at large team. I would think that he might want it in his next round of bowl tie-ins as well. We're counting on the Big 12 not getting eight teams bowl eligible to fill this. |
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It's a new entry here, and one the B1G hasn't filled since 2007. When you get to six wins, but there are no open games for you, you find yourself in the All Dressed Up and Nowhere to Bowl game. Northwestern should get its sixth win with a victory over Minnesota. However, I don't currently project any additional openings for an at large team. The ACC, MAC and Sun Belt have done a sneaky-good job as signing up as the backup choice for bowls that might otherwise not fill their slots. If you want rooting interests, root against Miami, Wake Forest and NC State. They each have two games to win one to get to six. They each have a game against BC or Maryland. It doesn't look good. If one of them fails, the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco might be in play. | |
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When you can't get to six wins, you'll find yourself On the Couch with the Queso Bowl. |
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Meh
I disagree with the Stanford pick. They have a small fan base and weren’t exactly a boon for Orange Bowl rankings last year. With Andrew Luck likely behind in the Heisman race after last night, I think that leaves the Fiesta Bowl with an easy choice in Nebraska where they can sell the rematch narrative and will get a throng of traveling fans.
http://victorypolka.blogspot.com/
Maybe
But I bet Andrew Luck wins the Heisman after shredding Notre Dame. Think Carson Palmer 2002.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 8:22 AM CST up reply actions
And
It is a lot easier to go from the Bay Rea to Arizona than to Miami.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 8:34 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Still
You really think, even with the better proximity, that Stanford fans would travel better than Nebraska? Or that the Cardinal would generate better television ratings than the Huskers?
http://victorypolka.blogspot.com/
No
But they’ll bring enough. And you’ll have NFL fans who will watch just to see Luck.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 10:40 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I think the B1G getting only one BCS bid
Might be best for the conference, so there won’t be as much “playing up” to opponents. Because of that, the B1G teams in each of your matchups have at least a realistic chance to win. Oh, and a B1G teamin New York would be cool.
That being said,
I don’t see many immediate favorites, but the strong bowl tie-ins help cause that.
I don't know
given the projections above, I see MSU, Michigan, OSU, PSU and Illinois as favorites. Nebraska as a toss-up, Wisconsin as a toss-up with slight lean to Oregon and only Iowa as a true underdog
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Not to focus on a miniscule aspect of your point
If Iowa plays AtM, in Houston, they’ll surely be an underdog by the Vegas fellows. Even as lousy as Iowa has, and possibly still may be at times this year, A&M is imploding. I have no faith in Mike Sherman getting his team to play with purpose. Outside of the end of season-er with UT, those dudes are cooked.
Well, let's look at this...
I still like the Cowboys over the Sooners. And Sparty over Bucky. That really doesn’t change much, just flops.
I also like Clemson over Tech. Call me a romantic, I still remember the days of Danny Ford.
I also pick Michigan and Penn State to lose both of their remaining games (with OSU winning against both)…. moving them down and OSU and Iowa up. Penn State may slide to the Pinstripe Bowl if they lose badly enough… which would actually be a great place for their fan base.
I think Houston/Alabama will be the most horrific slaughter. I really like Houston but they just aren’t ready for that.
Paul - just saying what comes to mind, since 1959
Houston doesn't need to worry about where Boise is in the polls
The non-AQ autobid goes to the highest ranked conference champion. TCU is almost certainly going to win the Mountain West (stranger things have already happened this year, but TCU would need to lose to both currently 3-6 Colorado State and currently 2-7 UNLV for Boise to win the MWC). Houston will very likely be the highest-ranked non-AQ champion unless they lose (which is very possible; their next two games — three including the CUSA title game if they don’t lose to Tulsa — are against teams that very well could beat them); the questions are whether TCU moves into the top 16 (with the carnage in the Big East, being in the top 16 is going to be enough), and if a 2-loss TCU passes a one-loss Houston.
The provision clearly states that a BCS bid will be awarded to the champion of the MWC, CUSA, Sun Belt, WAC or MAC if they are ranked 12th or higher or 16th or higher and ranked above a BCS champion (No ranked Big East teams). Boise is eligible for an at large selection, but cannot get an auto-bid.
http://www.frogsowar.com/
by HawkeyedFrog on Nov 13, 2011 9:07 AM CST up reply actions
Here's the relevant rule from bcsfootball.org
3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:
A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.
Houston...
….is not getting past SMU this week. Mark it zero, Dude.
I'd like to agree with you
but SMU just lost the 3rd of it’s last 4. They’re going the wrong direction right now. June needs to rally his team.
it is more likely Houston loses to Southern Miss. And if that happens, I think Southern Miss becomes the non-AQ BCS bid at 12-1.
I don't see a one loss CUSA team ranked ahead of TCU by humans
or enough by computers to make a difference.
not that I necessarily disagree with you … but .. looking at the current BCS rankings, TCU is #19 and Southern Miss is #20 (.2522 to .2449), not a huge difference. Coaches have them separated by 1 spot and only 6 points, while the Harris poll actually has Southern Miss #19 and TCU #20 with 7 points separating them.
So essentially, these two teams are even right now. So lets look at the finishing schedules for both:
Southern Miss: @ 2-8 UAB and 2-8 Memphis. Probable both wins. They will play either a 12-0 Houston team or a 9-3 Tulsa team. If they beat either in the CUSA game, they will be 12-1.
TCU: 3-6 Colorado St and 2-7 UNLV. No championship game. Finish 10-2
With everything staying equal, if Southern Miss wins the CUSA CG, especially against Houston, they most likely will be elevated by both the human voters and the computers.
I'm still finding this all rather amusing
I can’t wait to see Wisconsin beat a real opponent outside of Camp Randall.
The fact that it’s November and that I’m still waiting, except they’re apparently the ‘definitive’ favorite – therein lies the amusement.
What real teams outside of Camp Randall are left?
They have PSU at home and at Illinois left.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Let's just hope the BCS
Doesn’t have as much against Sparty as Bamahawkeye does. Let’s also hope for a rematch with Bucky, because god knows beating them 3 times in two years would taste oh so sweet
by StickyGreen on Nov 13, 2011 6:34 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
If we win out, we're going to the Rose Bowl.
If not, we’re not getting an at-large in front of Alabama, Oklahoma/OkSt, Houston (mandatory), a 10-2 Nebraska or Michigan (the latter would, frankly, be absurd, but it would happen anyway), or Stanford.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
In all honesty....
….I think Illinois would end up dressed up with nowhere to go. People laugh at this, but Northwestern actually DOES travel well (sold out its bowl allotment each year, plus some, during the recent 3-bowl game streak), AD Jim Phillips is a mastermind at selling the team to bowls (“National alumni base! Three exciting games! Chicago media talking up your bowl!”), and while Illinois did beat Northwestern, wouldn’t a bowl go with the hot hand? If you assume both are 6-6, Northwestern would have won 4 of its last five, while Illinois will have dropped 6 straight (and likely have questions swirling about Zook’s job).
Out of the 3 possible 6-6 teams, I’d rank them 1a. Purdue, 1b. Northwestern, and 3. Illinois, in terms of attractiveness for bowls.
I think that 7-5 Illinois
with a win over Minnesota gets picked over Northwestern.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 9:23 AM CST up reply actions
Of course...
….Iowa could be left behind, if Northwestern/Purdue win out and Illinois beats Minny (doable but perhaps unlikely — Northwestern has Minny/MSU at home, Purdue has Iowa/Indiana, and Illinois gets Minny the final weekend) and Iowa loses its last 2 (Purdue and Nebraska). Those 3 would then be 7-5, and I’m fairly certain the selection rules dictate that 7-5 teams must all have a slot before 6-6 teams can be picked.
That rule
Was duscontinued after the 2009 season. Now, all 6+ win teams are the same in the bowls’ eyes.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 10:06 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Really?
I totally missed that. Doesn’t the Big Ten itself, though, put a rule forward that 7-5 teams must all have a bowl spot ahead of 6-6 teams?
Just seems dumb that a 6-6 Big Ten team could get a bowl spot, while a 7-5 team could sit at home.
Point me to it
If you can find it. I know of no such B1G rule.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 10:30 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
It's indirectly described here
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/1088/another-big-ten-bowl-selection-nugget
Everybody with a winning record has to be assured of a spot in a B10 affiliated bowl for a 6-6 team to get taken.
That post is from 2008, prior to the rule change
and it was true at the time for all conferences, not just the Big Ten, as it was an NCAA rule. As Bama says, all 6+ win teams are now equal.
You can compare the 2008-2009 Posteseason Football Handbook with the 2009-2010 Postseason Football Handbook if you don’t want to delve through the entire 2011-2012 NCAA Division I Bylaws.
The Big Ten bylaws / rules are not available on the internet that I can find.
I knew the NCAA rule changed
I thought the B10 had their own version for the lower bowls, but I can’t prove it. I guess 6-6 IL went before 7-5 NW last year, so they must have ditched it.
Not really.
You’re talking about overall record. It would stand to reason that the B1G wouldn’t penalize a team that played a difficult/respectable non-con schedule that resulted in 1-3/2-2 and then went .500 or better in conference while a team with a joke of a non-con (think Mason’s Minnesota teams) went below .500 in-league while feasting on patsies. They would leave it up to the bowls which, for better or worse, are financial endeavors. They have an obligation to make money, not to be fair.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 13, 2011 12:46 PM CST up reply actions
Which is why...
….a 6-6 B1G team will be unlikely to be left home. Every single B1G team is a better financial “bet” in terms of selling tickets than the vast majority of “at-large” teams these bowls will be looking at.
Yes, some back-up deals may get in the way in individual instances, but I think all the 6-6 B1G teams are going bowling SOMEPLACE….
I was commenting on a 7-5 team being left at home
while a 6-6 team goes in their place. If that 7-5 team played a garbage schedule and, let’s say, lost their final 5 games, I could see a 6-6 team who played a solid schedule being taken over them in a scenario where someone has to stay home.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 15, 2011 1:38 AM CST up reply actions
Scenarios like this are exactly what make me absolutely despise the BCS.
Somehow, it is possible for NU-L or even UM (whom we beat convincingly) to leap frog MSU and potentially take a BCS bid from us.
I realize it is Nebraska and their fanbase would travel to Islamabad for a bowl game to escape Nebraska albeit momentarily, but do you really think that a university with 450,000 living alumni, who has not been to a major bowl in 20 years will not sell out their ticket allotment in minutes?
I will also be troubled today if somehow NU-L is ranked above us in the polls. I realize that they beat us head to head. Our two losses this year are to 8-2 NU-L and 7-3 ND, both on the road. NU-L lost to a game but 3-5 (now 5-5) Nortwestern at HOME?!
If MSU wins out and loses the B1G championship game, they are still worthy and deserving of a BCS bid. Definitely over two teams within their own conference who they have a better conference record than (and for f’s sake) definitely over Houston.
MSU's argument
against Nebraska isn’t very strong. If they’re both 10-2 (with Sparty getting a third loss in the title game), I don’t have any problem with a bowl taking the winner of the head to head.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 9:21 AM CST up reply actions
I hate to agree with you on this
But I do. I think it’s entirely likely that the UNL vs U-M winner (assuming it loses no other game) would leapfrog a Legends division champ MSU if MSU loses in the CCG, for a BCS at large. So that’s even worse than what Bama Hawkeye said – because I firmly believe that a 10-2 U-M, that got handled by MSU, would pass a 10-3 MSU that lost in CCG.
I don’t like it, I just recognize that “it is what it is.”
And it's one thing
whenthing when we’re taking about a second straight trip to a Capital One Bowl. A BCS berth makes it even worse.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 10:08 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Nebraska, I would understand.
I wouldn’t necessarily like it, but I would understand. Michigan? I would be livid, especially after being screwed out of a BCS bid last year. (And don’t tell me that Wisconsin or Ohio State wouldn’t have gotten bulldozed by Alabama either.)
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
MSU didn't get screwed last year
And yes, both OSU and WI would have put up a much better fight than MSU (not that that’s saying much) against AL.
10-2 on a winning streak > 10-3 coming off a loss
CFB king > second tier CFB program
OSU should not have been eligible. We beat Wisconsin.
How does that not add up to getting screwed? (Frankly, I think we had a better case than OSU even if you ignore the Tat 5 mess – they hadn’t beaten a single end-of-season ranked team prior to the bowls.)
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
Teams that get crushed by middle-of-the-pack teams
don’t get “screwed” out of anything. That MSU was so noncompetitive in a non-BCS bowl only furthers this thought.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 15, 2011 1:40 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Alabama would have crushed anyone that day, particularly OSU or UW
The fact that people have difficulty grasping that concept only makes me shake my head.
You ignored the first aspect of my point.
Iowa was very average last year and beat the Hell out of MSU. Coupled with a number of miracle finishes, it’s a hard sell to say MSU was a BCS-caliber team.
And to resort to assuming Alabama would have beaten anyone on that day…well, I guess it’s a good thing to believe in your team.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 15, 2011 11:24 PM CST up reply actions
This isn't just the BCS
Head to head matters… a lot. While Nebraska has a ‘bad loss’ at home to NW, you could also argue that MSU has two bad losses getting worked by both ND and Nebraska. If MSU loses in the CCG, they will probably be below 14 (number needed to get in the BCS picture) and we all know it’s better to lose early than late. So when it comes down to it, Nebraska looks just as good if not better than Sparty (at least by this argument).
Also, it is important to remember that it’s not just tickets. It’s ratings. I agree that MSU probably travels well and has a lot of TV sets, but Nebraska turns on TVs. Is that fair? Well, competitively speaking, probably not. Still, that’s one of the reasons Delany wanted the Huskers. If you want a friend to commiserate with, Missouri is always free to talk. They got screwed in bowl order in favor of Nebraska all the time.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
by KennardHusker on Nov 13, 2011 9:27 AM CST up reply actions
I just don't see losses to bowl bound ND and NU-L on the road as "bad" losses.
Or if the margin of loss would make one construe it as a bad loss, then what is a loss at home to a possibly 6-6 NU staying home for the holidays?
As far as TV’s – with the exception of the annual Big East/ACC Orange bowl snooze fest people will watch the BCS games no matter who the participants are.
I realize that this will probably go against us if we don’t win out (including the B1G game). It helps me to empathize ever so slightly with the BCS non-AQ’s, Still it’s one thing to play Boise or Houston schedule and claim “we deserve a shot” and to play a B1G or BXII or SEC schedule.
It’s just a crappy system no matter who gets the BCS games.
I agree on that last part
This is still a very crappy system, but it’s all subjective and it’s money-driven. Kind of a jacked up situation and all, but it wasn’t much better pre-BCS either.
As for ‘bad losses’ you are correct. Neither are terrible, although ND doesn’t look particularly good, but when the committees look at boxscores that don’t tell the full story later, MSU gets screwed. I, for one, agree that a runner-up B1G team deserves more, (and that will screw Nebraska down the line) but it’s going to happen unless we have a playoff… and let’s not start arguing that one right now.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
by KennardHusker on Nov 13, 2011 11:36 AM CST up reply actions
The teams make a big difference
TV ratings vary greatly based on who is in the game. NE draws much better ratings than MSU, especially after last year’s bowl debacle. OU/NE in the Fiesta would be huge.
That Notre Dame game was a mindfuck of epic proportions
In no way did we get ‘worked’ that game. We lost by 18, yes, but we outgained them by almost 100. It was a perfect example of how to shoot yourself in the foot so many times that, by the end of the day, there was no foot left.
The Nebraska game – yeah, we got worked. We also came off three consecutive weeks of @OSU, UM, and UW. We went 3-1 in that stretch.
I realize neither point will make any difference to bowl selection committees, but at least the truth shall set us free.
Hell, Mizzou got screwed out of a bolwl game by ISU
in 2009. They beat that same ISU team by 10, finished with 2 more wins, and still got passed over.
Watching the Cubs piss it away for 31 years.
by CarolinaHawk on Nov 13, 2011 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
MSU's shot at an at-large
Possible I think. Michigan beats Nebraska but loses to Ohio State or Nebraska beats Michigan but loses to Iowa.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Not gonna happen.
If we have two losses, we’re in the Rose Bowl. If we have three, we’re not going to be ranked high enough to go.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
I'm not sweatin' it....
….cuz we’re going to the Rose Bowl, brother!
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
That's right.
Although many in the Spartan Nation would disagree with me, I want nothing more than a rematch with UW. Sure, we could lose, but winning would quiet all of the crazies who disagree with video proof. Plus it ends this argument, and pisses off Iowa (cause we’re obviously better than 2010 Iowa) and UM to no avail. Doesn’t get much better.
by StickyGreen on Nov 13, 2011 6:43 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
You're obviously better than 2010 Iowa?
I’m not following. 2011 MSU is a good team. I don’t believe great, but I don’t see anybody in the B1G that is great. Saying that this team is better than Iowa from last year should just piss you off and make you wonder why MSU played so poorly in the 1st half of that game last year.
"'Contrariwise,' continued Tweedledee, 'If it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic." - Lewis Caroll, Alice Through the Looking Glass
by chitownhawkeye on Nov 14, 2011 7:47 PM CST up reply actions
I love this.
The “mine’s bigger” comparison of these two schools’ fans and their inferiority complexes related to their seasons.
There's no inferiority complex
We are what we are. Which is an 8-2 team that had a record last year of 11-2. We have one senior starting on our defense, and three total on the entire defensive depth chart. Our offensive line is young, and our running backs are all young.
The Spartans are a good football team that’s in a position to continue being a top-echelon B1G squad.
Orchestra?
Would you please cue up “SPARTY NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!”? Because now would be the most deliciously funny time to do it….
by Chadnudj on Nov 15, 2011 11:43 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Better conference record?
Why would a bowl care? 10-2 on a winning streak is better than 10-3 coming off a loss. A FB king is also better than a second tier FB program.
10-2 NE should be ranked above 10-2 MSU based on their schedules and the head to head domination.
No 3 loss B10 team is getting a BCS at large spot this year.
So while MSU lost to bowl bound ND and NU-L on the road
NU-L lost to a (then 3-5 (1-4 B1G)) NU at home but should be ranked ahead of MSU?
It may turn out that we beat everybody on our division (and conference) schedule except NU-L. It may turn out that NU-L beats everybody on it’s division schedule except NU.
But hopefully if things work out we’ll get our chance to win a place into the Rose Bowl.
You can be a “King” and prove what is wrong with the system by being “selected” into a Fiesta Bowl.
As I recall
Last year’s complaining from MSU was that the head to head should be respected and everyone should ignore the bad loss.
Now it’s the head to head that should be ignored and the bad loss should be respected.
NE crushed MSU. With equal records, NE should be ranked higher.
I don't know about Ok St. losing to OU
Bedlam is going to be fantastic, and after watching the Pokes absolutely manhandle TT yesterday (mostly by an offense that is almost unstoppable), I think this might be their year to go to the BCS game. Could that offense take on LSU? Who knows, but it would at least be fun.
As for how the B1G plays out… This looks like as good a prediction as any. The new transitive property of B1G teams has pretty much everyone better than themselves, with the exception of Indiana. There is an argument for almost any team to call themselves ‘second place’ if Wisconsin still wins out.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
well
I haven’t seen the purdue Osu game. What the hell happened?
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Nov 13, 2011 9:54 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
Purdue's lines dominated
on both sides of the ball.
Some people just need a high five. In the face. With a chair.
This does not bode well for Iowa next weekend.
Of course, given the way my attempts at predicting B1G games have generally gone this season, Iowa will probably win by forty.
by Midnight Rambler on Nov 13, 2011 12:34 PM CST up reply actions
The thing that doesn't bode well for Iowa
is that they’re not particularly good this season.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 13, 2011 12:37 PM CST up reply actions
The thing that does bode well for Iowa
is that Purdue isn’t either. Beating Ohio State this year isn’t/wasn’t the tremendous story it was two years ago.
Watching the Cubs piss it away for 31 years.
by CarolinaHawk on Nov 13, 2011 4:41 PM CST up reply actions
WE beat them...
I don’t remember the last time we beat them w/o them turning the ball over… ESPECIALLY since we threw one INT…
Boiler Up! Hammer Down!
by JuJuan some Moore? on Nov 13, 2011 11:37 AM CST up reply actions
We own OSU in West Lafayette
It’s very inexplicable, but we’re 4-2 against them at Ross-Ade over the last six games, with one of their two wins the infamous “Holy Buckeye”. I have no idea why, but Ohio State seems to play well everywhere in this conference except at Purdue.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
OSU also sucks at IL
I think it’s the weather at IL as much as anything.
WI always caused problems, too, even before they got really good.
To be fair
It’s pretty easy to mix up those Indiana schools…
No, they're easy to remember.
Purdue: Basketball School
Indiana: Soccer School
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 13, 2011 12:00 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
No it's even easier...
Purdue = Engineering School
Indiana = Music School
Dikaia Upotheke - Justice Our Foundation
by Lord Willie on Nov 13, 2011 10:09 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
More like music factory.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 14, 2011 1:39 AM CST up reply actions
Goddamnit Links!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8hdKnr7rpE
"Hey Jay, what time is it?"
"9:30"
"AND IU STILL SUCKS!"
by Boiler Bandsman on Nov 14, 2011 5:12 PM CST up reply actions
I was just waiting for this comment.
But seriously, IU has a fantastic music school but one not so interested in playing to musicians’ strengths as they are in having you conform to the “right” way. Still, it’s hard to argue with results.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 15, 2011 1:36 AM CST up reply actions
I'm waiting for the "Nebraska will go 13-0".
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 13, 2011 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
I, for one,
am incredibly excited about the Queso Bowl. Nothing like sitting on a couch, watching games where I either just root for the Big 10 team or against the SEC or PAC-10 team. Except I normally have cheesecake (Quesocake?) during New Years.
I am a college student that sleeps with a St. Louis Cardinals Fredbird Pillow Pet, and I am proud of it.
SMU takes care of Houston.
And if they don’t, a red-hot Southern Miss team does in the C-USA title game (yes, they have a title game in C-USA). TCU wins the MWC, so no Boise. Southern Miss wins C-USA, so no Houston. Neither Southern Miss nor TCU are ranked in the top 16 OR the Big East Champ climbs higher (doubtful).
If these things happen, the B1G is pretty much guaranteed two BCS bids because A) there wouldn’t be a non-AQ team eligible for a slot, and B) the ACC and the Big East will NOT get two teams in the BCS. Thus, two from the B1G,Big XII, Pac-12, and SEC, and one from the ACC and Big East.
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Nov 13, 2011 9:42 AM CST reply actions
Don't forget Tulsa
They play Nov 25. Houston and Tulsa are both undefeated in conference and tied for their division lead. BTW Tulsa’s 3 noncon losses are Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State.They
I know TCU has 2 losses
however, I’ll be surprised if they aren’t in the top 16.
Also...
….are we sure that there won’t be more open spots? I gotta believe that if there are at-large spots/conferences that can’t fill their affiliations, ANY Big Ten team would be high on their list.
And in 2007, when we had bowl eligible teams sitting at home, there were fewer bowls….70 bowl teams for 35 bowls this year….I can’t imagine any B1G teams that are eligible being left out in the cold.
I searched
Expansion plus fewer 8 win teams and more 6 win teams has left very few unfolded slot. I’d rate that Pinstripe opening as only a 50% shot. There will be multiple eligible teams across the country who don’t have a bowl.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 10:10 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
And I find it unlikely..
…that the Big East gets 6 bowl-eligible teams.
Really?
Look at their standings. It’s almost mathematically impossible for them not to. Plus, Notre Dame counts in that six.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 10:11 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
yeah i was gonna say
3 eligible already, 4 more teams with 5 wins, lots of head to head matchups that someone has to win
Yup
Cinci, Rutgers, and WVU already eligible. ND is extremely likely to take a Big East bowl spot.
USF/Louisville winner and SU/Pitt winner will be eligible (though all the other games between current 5-win Big East teams have already been played).
Forgot about Notre Dame...
….I still find it absurd that a B1G eligible team would not go bowling in this era of 70 bowl slots, though.
The new wrinkle
Is backup berths. Army can’t fill its slot, but the bowl contracted with the ACC in that instance. Same thing with the Compass bowl in Birmingham. Even if Miss St, tenn, or Vandy all don’t get to six wins, the bid goes to a Sun Belt team.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 10:28 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Well. If your conference is going to get shut out of the big bowls...
Might as well contract so that your teams get something.
But those backup berths...
…only exist if the conference has enough teams eligible that don’t fill their own slots. Can the ACC both fill its own spots AND have enough to be backups? (I honestly don’t know….that’s why I’m curious)
Yes
ACC will get to nine eligible if NC State, Wake, and Miami all win their game against either BC or Maryland.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 5:22 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Here's one way to deal with it.
Win out.
Better yet, don’t lose early season games to the likes of Army or Illinois.
I want the Cats to go to a bowl too, but it’s hard for me to feel jobbed if we’re 6-6 (3-5) with a loss to an academy.
DING DING DING!
That’s the answer. I mean, obviously upsets happen, but if NW doesn’t lose to Army, then they aren’t in this situation.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
by KennardHusker on Nov 13, 2011 11:37 AM CST up reply actions
Oh, I agree...
…if Northwestern can’t get to a bowl, it’s their own fault for losing to Army/Illinois (hell, EVERY loss this season could have easily gone the other way). But with 70 bowl teams, I have to imagine Northwestern is a more attractive option at 6-6 than MANY other eligible teams, regardless.
"This is likely to be either a 7 win Vanderbilt team or a 6 win SEC team."
Still funny though.
by truemichiganman on Nov 13, 2011 10:39 AM CST reply actions
That is serious
And unintentionally appropriate.
If Vandy wins out, I could see them getting the bid at 7-5. Otherwise, the bowl will choose from six win Florida, Vandy, MSU, and Tennessee.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 10:43 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Would they really want a rematch of a bowl game from last year in PSU-Florida?
Bloggin' at JoePasDoghouse.com
No
But they might not see many other viable options. It depends on the gap between PSU and the mediocre teams that follow.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 5:23 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
NU in New York
If there is an opening in the Pinstripe Bowl, you can bet the organizers will be looking at all those Northwestern fans who sailed up the Hudson to West Point from NYC to attend the Army game. My guess is that Northwestern – with Persa, Ebert and Colter as well as a national alumni base – might prove to be more attractive to a non-Midwestern bowl than Purdue, even though its been quite some time since PU has been to a bowl.
+1
Factor in, as well, the fact that Yankees manager Joe Girardi is a Northwestern alum (and George Steinbrenner was a one-time Northwestern football grad assistant), and there’s some nice synergy for the bowl with Northwestern that doesn’t necessarily exist with Purdue or Illinois.
Steinbrenner was also an assistant coach at Purdue in the '50s
But I’m not sure how much that will factor into the bowl selection process…
Either way, Purdue could sure it up with wins over our most hated rival and IU the next two weekends.
Turning it up to 10
There were 10 teams bowl eligible in 2007. Only Minnesota, at 1-11, was not eligible. Both Iowa and Northwestern sat at home at 6-6.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
In Iowa's case
that had more to do with losing its home finale to Western Michigan than the overall record. Had they won their final game to go 6-6 I think they would have been bowling.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 13, 2011 11:51 AM CST up reply actions
I thought they had lost and fell to 6-6?
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
No
At that point, 7 win teams had to be selected before 6 win teams. That’s why there was no choice, the Insight and Motor City couldn’t consider Iowa and Northwestern. They had to take Indiana and Purdue.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 5:27 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Ah, yes.
The good old days.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 14, 2011 1:41 AM CST up reply actions
I'm glad you've abandoned the notion of an at-large 10-2 Big Ten team
Also, Alabama would fucking murder Houston.
Really? I still think the Big Ten is likely to get an at-large berth.
I think it’s guaranteed if OSU and Nebraska win out. The Fiesta Bowl would have first choice between Houston, Big East, Nebraska, Stanford, and Boise State. Nebraska is the clear choice there, especially given the history.
I don't see it happening.
There are four at-large spots. One is reserved for a non-AQ (Houston will be high enough). The SEC is definitely getting one. The Big XII is definitely getting one. If Stanford ends up in the top 4, they’re also getting one. Even if they aren’t, there’s a reasonable chance that a bowl would take a one-loss Stanford over a two-loss team that also didn’t win its division. (OSU has zero chance of an at-large, as they can’t get to 9 wins without winning the championship game. Or did you mean OkSt?)
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
I meant Oklahoma State, Ohio State I'll refer to as TOSU (or TO$U)
But a 1-loss Stanford vs a 2-loss Michigan or Nebraska…
Bowls aren’t about the “quality” of team, they care about the money (up to a certain extent). And I don’t think that Stanford can offset the benefit they’d get from Nebraska (and possibly Michigan).
Michigan/Nebraska have to get into the top 12 of the BCS standings first
but even beyond that, I’m not sure there’s much of a TV appetite to see a 2-loss Big Ten team in another BCS game given our collectively awful performance the last few years. It’s nice to get butts in the seats, but if the end result is another Alabama-Michigan State, people will be tuning out by halftime, at best.
I mean, this is just conjecture:
But I don’t think that most football fans are as avid as the fine folks here. They’ll see the Michigan or Nebraska name, and that’ll be enough. Far more than a Stanford name.
And I think Michigan or Nebraska would keep it close enough to be interesting. But maybe that’s just optimism.
Yeah I really don't think that's true anymore, if it ever was.
I think more people are seeing a competitive game between highly-ranked teams than necessarily seeing helmets they recognize. There are exceptions, of course, but it’s not like OkState and Stanford are unrecognizable to the general public, particularly with Andrew Luck being involved.
Name brands make a huge difference
You can see it in the TV ratings. NE and MI >> OkSU and Stanford
If Stanford is in the top 4, it may not be the bowls' choice to make.
If #3 is not an AQ conference champ, they go automatically. If they are and #4 is not, #4 goes automatically.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
Stanford is #9 right now
There is no way they get back to the top 4 with their schedule.
Tostitos Bowl
Have to agree with a few of the others that I don’t think Oklahoma State or Stanford have the fan base for them both to hit the Fiesta Bowl. I could see all three of Nebraska, Michigan State, and Michigan filling the Fiesta Bowl much better.
I don't think MSU has a chance at the Fiesta Bowl.
They’ll have 3 losses at the least (I’m not being presumptuous, but obviously if they win out they go to the Rose Bowl.) I think that’s too much to overcome a 1-loss Stanford squad.
Bama Hawkeye-
Someone on Lake the Posts pointed this out. NC State beat two FCS teams, so they would need to go 7-5 to be eligible, no? Given the fact that one of those wins would need to be against Clemson, would that open up the Fight Hunger Bowl for Northwestern?
I was about to post about the same thing
The someone was LTP’s bowl expert, and checking NC State’s schedule, he’s right— two of their five wins thus far are over Liberty (Big South) and South Alabama (FCS Independent, bumping up to Sun Belt in 2013). Clemson this week is do-or-die for them.
Fuck Clemson
But yeah, Clemson… win this week please.
Good catch
I missed that. It would definitely open up San Fran.
"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint
http://www.offtackleempire.com
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 13, 2011 5:28 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I will never understand
Scheduling 2 FCS teams.
Usually happens when someone backs out of a game late
And either they or the other school already has an FCS game scheduled, and is unable to find another FBS opponent on short notice. For example, Syracuse had two FCS games last year because we backed out of a series with Virginia Tech (because it would have meant playing Virginia Tech and Southern California in the same season this year, which didn’t sound like a good idea to Coach Marrone); Virginia Tech was able to get the Boise State game at FedEx to fill that spot (though given that they lost it, it’s not clear if that was a good move or not).
You can argue for just playing 11 games in that scenario, but you at least get to sell tickets for the second FCS game.
ASU did that last year, too.
It left them out of the postseason because 2 of their 6 wins were against FCS programs.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 13, 2011 9:57 PM CST up reply actions
Of course, there's always K-State
who does it every other year out of spite… or Bill Snyder forgets you only get to count one.
With that said, isn’t there actually a loophole to that where you can count two towards bowl eligibility if you haven’t counted them in the past ‘x’ amount of years?
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
by KennardHusker on Nov 13, 2011 11:49 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think so.
You can only count one toward the nine wins required for BCS eligibility every four years (although Illinois is the only team who’s ever had to make use of that).
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
//Illinois loses to Missouri for the ten thousandth time in a row
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
Follow @GSchofield50
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 14, 2011 12:04 PM CST up reply actions
Thank Jim Bollman
and the right side of Ohio State’s PAT team for that.
But in reality, thank your own rushing offense. They managed to be highly successful against the Buckeyes, particularly up the middle. It seemed like Bolden was running harder than I’d ever seen him run before.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 13, 2011 7:50 PM CST up reply actions
Did anyone consider a scenario where Stanford loses again?
They have a rivalry game with Cal, which means anyone can win. And then they have Notre Dame, a team capable of beating them.
If that happens, a 10-2 Michigan State/Nebraska will get a BCS bid. Lock it up. And then the B1G more than likely fills all it’s bowl slots.
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Nov 14, 2011 9:35 AM CST reply actions
No
But I don’t think Stanford needs to lose again. I think 10-2 NE or 10-2 MI would get picked over Stanford. The bigger problem is for NE or MI to get in the top 14.
15-18 of the BCS are
Sparty, Nebraska, Sconnie, and those bastard rodents from Ann Arbor.
If either Michigan or Nebraska wins out, they should bubble high enough to be selected.
by Albino Tornado on Nov 14, 2011 2:32 PM CST up reply actions
If Michigan State wins out
They go to the Rose Bowl. If they don’t, they’re not going to go the BCS with 3 losses.
Michigan or Nebraska could each finish 10-2, but both cannot.
by Albino Tornado on Nov 14, 2011 6:20 PM CST up reply actions
According to CBS,
fears of PSU not getting a B1G tie-in are pretty legit. It throws out THE HAWAII BOWL as a possibility.
If it does go to an at-large bowl,
I would personally think the Pinstripe Bowl would be great…under normal circumstances. Obviously, having PSU in New York for a bowl game this year would be incredibly stupid due to NYC being home to almost every media outlet.
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