The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 10
by Jonathan Franz on Nov 4, 2011 12:48 AM CDT
in Obligatory Predictions Competition
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1. No. 15 MICHIGAN @ IOWA, 12:00 p.m. EST (11/5)
GRAHAM predicts MICHIGAN
Michigan, the four point favorites, and yet against a standard Kirk Ferentz team at home, I would typically go with Iowa. I still don't trust Michigan against angry teams on the road, but I'll follow Vegas on this one and go with the Wolverines.
JON predicts MICHIGAN
I've been to Kinnick Stadium. It's a tough place to play on the road. But, as Bama Hawkeye lamented earlier this week, this is an uncharacteristically soft Iowa team. I still think the Wolverine offense is vulnerable to an aggressive defensive front. But unless the 2009 Iowa defense makes a special guest appearance, I just don't trust the Hawks to make places to shorten drives. The Wolverines jump out to a double digit lead and hold on on the road.
GRAHAM predicts MICHIGAN STATE
MSU has the perfect defense to slow the Gophers: active blitzers and penetrating linemen. Gray is going to get hit hard and early, just like every other QB MSU's faced not named Taylor Martinez.
JON predicts MICHIGAN STATE
No question, Sparty occasionally turns into a noctambulist on the road. But now that last week's let down is out of their system I say they get back into form at home. Make no mistake, a gutsy on-sides kick won't be the difference in this one.
GRAHAM predicts WISCONSIN
Wisky sliding, sliding, sliding, but even a sliding Wisconsin team couldn't possibly struggle against a Purdue team bad at finishing drives...
JON predicts WISCONSIN
The key to beating Wisconsin is defensive toughness. Purdue doesn't have enough of it to out-muscle the Badgers in the comfortable confines of Camp Randall.
4. No. 9 SOUTH CAROLINA @ No. 7 ARKANSAS 7:00 p.m. EST (11/5)
GRAHAM predicts ARKANSAS
Watched Arkansas on ESPN's Depth Chart - My god are the offensive coaches intense. At home? SC can't score with the Razorbacks.
JON predicts ARKANSAS
This game is unusually quiet for a Top 10 matchup. I suppose you can't blame the SEC public relations brass for putting all their eggs in the Alabama/LSU basket. South Carolina is a top team in name only, after losing Stephen Garcia to alcohol and Marcus Lattimore to injury. Okay, okay, so they've got a pretty good replacement in Connor Shaw, and a darn solid defense. And Arkansas did have their hands full last week against Vandy -- plus they'll be without Marquel Wade. Does that spell an upset? Nah. I'm taking the Razorbacks and their agressive pass attack at home.
5. No. 1 LSU @ No. 2 ALABAMA, 8:00 p.m. EST (11/5)
GRAHAM predicts ALABAMA
GOTY naturally. You best be sitting and watching this game, because it's going to be NFL-talent in a 1 v. 2 atmosphere. Alabama wins with home advantage, although LSU's offense is more versatile than Bama's.
JON predicts ALABAMA
Man, how I want to take LSU here. After all, the Tigers have the more impressive resume coming into Tuscaloosa, and two elite defenses are bound to cancel each other out. So why do I give Alabama the edge? Two reasons: Trent Richardson and the 12th Man.
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Iowa — Mobile QBs kill Iowa until otherwise demonstrated. KF owns Denard until otherwise demonstrated. I don’t think Michigan is as good as their record, and Iowa has lost 2 games by a combined 1 point. This could really go either way, but I’m calling it an equilibrium pick.
Michigan State — MSU at home is a good football team. Minnesota is not a good football team.
Wisconsin — The question is by how much. I could see it being close. I could see Wisconsin by 50.
Arkansas — FWIW, I don’t think either of these teams would be top 5 in the B1G. Going with the home team.
Alabama — Much better defense, much better offense, playing at home. The only way this game is close is if Les Miles has some Les Milesish luck.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
Much better defense
The numbers don’t bear that out….
Football Outsiders has the LSU D ranked #2 in terms of per play efficiency, while Bama is #14.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/2011/fei-week-9
Ever Grateful. Ever True.
Three sets of numbers
Annar (per game) — Alabama #1, LSU #6
S&P+ (per play) — Alabama #1, LSU #2
FEI (per possession) — Alabama #14, LSU #2
While I would typically take the per possession stats over either the per game or per play, there are two games against gimmicky offenses greatly benefiting LSU’s numbers: Oregon and WVU.
While Oregon is statistically a good offensive football team, look at the history of that team over the past few years when teams have more than 1 week to prepare for that offense (which LSU did). Very average. And while WVU puts up pretty gaudy offensive numbers against bad defenses, do you really think they’d do that in the B1G or SEC? Even the ACC? Me neither. Those two games more than explain away the difference in FEI (and would create a much bigger gap in Annar).
LSU is a great (obviously) defensive football team. I still don’t think they’re on Alabama’s (or Penn State’s for that matter) level.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
I really like Iowa a lot in this game
particularly since they are at home, buthis caught my eye:
Iowa has lost 2 games by a combined 1 point.
I’ll readily admit that my math skills aren’t the greatest, but this does not compute.
by buckyor on Nov 4, 2011 7:25 AM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
I guess he doesn't count point differentials
in OT.
Every word that ends in -oma is cancer. What does that tell you about Oklahoma?
Exactly
OT Points are fake points
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
I am not nearly drunk enough to understand this
But try me Sunday at about 8pm EST and I may be able to get on board.
Scores at the end of 4 quarters:
Iowa: 24
Iowa State: 24
Iowa: 21
Minnesota 22
Both were Iowa losses. On the road. In games they led for over 30 minutes.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
Minnesota Game
Not trailing and leading for more than 30 minutes are 2 different things,
It was close to 30 minutes with the lead, but not quite. I think it was only 25 minutes with the lead.
It was tied for 26 minutes in the first half, 6 minutes in the 2nd half. Minnesota held the lead for just under 3 minutes.
by Ski U Mah Gopher on Nov 4, 2011 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions
you are correct
my bad
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
Bama-LSU: Just to play spoiler, I’m going with LSU. As Jon points out, they have a far more impressive resume (convincing wins against Oregon and WVU in neutral or away sites) and have somehow been able to pull through no matter how many players get suspended. I hate LSU and Miles, but I have a feeling there’s going to be some devilry that lets the Hatter squeak by.
"There is a force that makes us all brothers, no one goes his way alone." --Woody Hayes
I'm picking Alabama.
Not just because the game is in Tuscaloosa.
I’m picking Alabama because LSU is still coached by Les Miles, who can let a putrid brain fart fly at any time during any game.
by Midnight Rambler on Nov 4, 2011 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions
LSU is my pick
I think their superior defense and special teams will be the difference.
Ever Grateful. Ever True.
"MSU has the perfect defense to slow the Gophers..."
In other words, Michigan State does not have this year’s Iowa defense.
by Midnight Rambler on Nov 4, 2011 7:08 AM CDT reply actions 7 recs
Same here
I have identical picks this week. I hope Purdue somehow upsets Wisconsin, though.
Boiler Up, Go Blue
This week's B1G picks seem kinda easy (which means there'll be at least one major upset)
Michigan (road wins are tough to come by in the B1G this year)
MSU (I expect a bloodletting after last week’s offensive debacle)
Wisconsin (too much Ball for Purdue to handle)
Arkansas (South Carolina ain’t that good)
LSU (eff Nick Saban)
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
Some of these picks
do seem rather easy this week. I think Iowa could pull the upset if Michigan has some early turnovers to give the Hawkeyes a really short field and the crowd gets into it. Lets say Robinson throws an INT, the frosh fumbles the next drive at the 20, and Iowa is up 14-3 at the end of the first quarter. Sure, every game is tough when you turn the ball over, but when the Wolverines have to throw the ball a lot, bad things happen.
I’ll still take UM, MSU, Wiscy, Ark, and LSU.
Won't predict the upset...
…but you’re crazy if you think Northwestern will be held to just 16 points. Won’t happen with Persa under center, and the offense is clicking on all cylinders against everyone they’ve played this season, doubling the ppg average allowed by 3 top-5 B1G scoring defenses (PSU, Michigan, Illinois).
Nebraska would be lucky to hold them to 16 in the first half (Northwestern has had a 2nd half lead or tie in every game they’ve played this year save PSU, where they trailed by only 3 at the half and lost by only 10)…..of course, the Huskers still might be up at that point, but I don’t think Northwestern gets anything less than 20-25 points in this game.
What I'm counting on
is actually for the Wildcat’s defense to hurt their offense. I believe Nebraska will be able to get an early lead, which will force what I think is a one-dimensional offense to be even more so.
Much like the Indianapolis Colts, the Blackshirts defense is much more effective when they have a lead. Who isn’t thought, right? But in this case, it
because they’re reliant on speed, getting physical with receivers at the LOS to redirect routes, and allowing the linebackers to read and react.
Yes, the game could indeed devolve into a 21-21 score at halftime. In my opinion, the match-ups put the odds against this outcome.
I think you'll find....
…that redirecting WRs at the line won’t be as effective against Northwestern as with other offenses — it’s not like we’re relying on the freakish athleticism of our players to get open, because they’re not freakishly athletic at all. It’s scheme, design, and the scary accuracy of Persa (75.5% completion rate in B1G games this year — best all-time if he keeps it up, beating his OWN record from last year) making the passing game work. He’ll find the open guys, and not force things.
Also, you’re right — we don’t have an excellent running back. But that doesn’t make our offense one-dimensional. Northwestern is managing to be pretty effective running the ball using a variety of guys carrying the ball — Persa, Colter, Adonis Smith (he’s been hurt but will be on the field against Nebraska), Jacob Schmidt, Treyvon Green, Venric Mark (great Sippin’ On Purple play analysis on how he was used against Indiana). They’re averaging a respectable 168 ypg rushing in conference games — that’s certainly not Nebraska or Michigan level, but it’s pretty impressive given the fact Northwestern lost it’s #1 running back to injury (Mike Trumpy) and the fact Northwestern has played the #1, #2, and #5 rushing defenses in the conference (Michigan, PSU, and Illinois, respectively).
I'm still trying to figure out how
Persia is going to move the ball through the air with 54mph wind gusts.
Gusts are an issue
If the steady winds are only in the 20 mph range where the forecast stands right now, the offense is perfectly capable of throwing. This isn’t the first time Northwestern has had to deal with high winds, and the offense knows how to adjust their approach.
by MountainTiger on Nov 4, 2011 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Wind is going to be an issue at several B1G games tomorrow.
I’m not sure about OSU and the Michigan games, but the games in the western part of the conference—Iowa City, Madison, Lincoln— are going to see gusty conditions.
by Midnight Rambler on Nov 4, 2011 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not familiar enough
with the Northwestern offense to comment if they rely on a running game consisting mostly of draws and delayed handoffs, but that strategy will net a lot of negative plays, I think. Going 2nd and 13 will be death to many drives. The Nebraska defense struggles most with the run when the opposition just comes straight at them.
Also, as SteveW0720 just pointed out, if the passing offense is based on timing or anything past 20 yards tomorrow, I hope Persa has a strong arm, because it’s gonna get windy.
Purple Drank: The OFFICIAL Drank of
Grimace
Jamarcus Russell
and Chadnudj
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Northwestern doesn't abandon the run
The biggest complaint you’ll hear from Northwestern fans is that we tend to stick with the run even when passing has been far more effective. This also extends situationally: Mick McCall (the NU OC) likes to keep the run in the mix until he absolutely has to abandon it.
by MountainTiger on Nov 4, 2011 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
I dunno, if Robinson is having a bad day
And Iowa decides to use their Minnesota-butthurt to fuel their fury, we may have a game. Remember how explosive Iowa was against MSU last year coming off of a loss? And they lost by one point last year too.
Yes, but
in the aftermath of the ISU game, we came out incredibly flat against Pitt. And watching some player interviews earlier this week, the players looked dejected and thisclose to packing it in for the season
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
picks
Iowa-yes this UM team has played one game on the road that they won. They lost to MSU.
MSU-brutal October ends for this team.
Wisconsin-Even the packers might lose if they play UW in Camp Randall
Arkansas-but who will watch this game outside the state of AR and SC.
Alabama-the greatest game of the century!!! We have at least one every year. that makes 100 or more this century. ESPN likes to hype things.
Personally, I need MORE updates from LSU/Bama!
I still don’t know how many Splendas Saban puts in his coffee, or what color underpants Les is wearing today.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
What?
Nobody is picking the tOSU/Indiana game? What has this site come to?
PS: My sources say that Nick Saban uses 2.5 Splenda’s in his coffee but keeps 5 around in case the one’s he planned on using didn’t taste as sweet
You win with people (not named Joe Bauserman)
by BuckeyeSki on Nov 4, 2011 9:52 AM CDT reply actions 5 recs
What's with the Saban-Splenda references?
Did I miss something?
I hear that he reads to kill a mockingbird before every game
Front to back in 30 minutes. And then he literally eats the book.
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The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Nov 4, 2011 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
EA did a softball interview with MIles on ESPN that included a question about how many cups of coffee Miles drinks
I also think she asked him how he decided how many cups of coffee to drink.
No joke. That was an actual question.
by Midnight Rambler on Nov 4, 2011 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Oversigning
I thought that this post was a knock on Saban’s habit of oversigning high school players.
Iowa will win tomorrow or next Saturday against MSU.
On paper, Iowa is the underdog in both games. None the less, Iowa plays way better at home this season (like pretty much everyone else in the conference), and Ferentz has a knack for winning these sort of games—MSU last year, Penn State 2008, etc.
Whether Iowa will beat Michigan or Michigan State, I have no idea. This is a hunch pick, not a very rational pick, but they will win one of them.
by Midnight Rambler on Nov 4, 2011 10:39 AM CDT reply actions
MSU has shown no semblance of offensive competence on the road
I’m picking Iowa to win next week. For the life of me I don’t understand how MSU’s offense looks so decent at home and so bad they make Penn State look like the 99 Rams on the road.
GO IOWA AWESOME, now and forever, unless PSU sees them in the B1G CG
Beat Nebraska.
MSU does in fact have the perfect defense to slow the Gophers.
In that MSU does not rely upon a single quadripalegic starter, they should be able to stifle pretty much anything the Gophers want to do.
I just want to watch the world burn.
by Bob Genghiskhan on Nov 4, 2011 10:40 AM CDT reply actions
Random thought
I was getting my haircut the other day, and my barber said something about this Craig James fella. According to my barber, he killed 5 hookers at SMU, and he’s still calling games?
What has this world come to.
by SteveW0720 on Nov 4, 2011 10:59 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
REMEMBER THE 5!
In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.
by Pariahwulfen on Nov 5, 2011 8:20 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hmm.
Iowa – I don’t know why. But I can’t stand thinking that the Great Armpunter may win the Legends Division.
MSU – BUT DID YOU HEAR MINNESOTA BEAT IOWA AND KEPT FLOYD?
Wisconsin – Because yeah.
Arkansas – One of my favorite moments from being in the basketball band here was playing at a women’s game, then “callin’ them hogs” in a silent Welsh-Ryan while the other team was shooting free throws and getting looks from the 140 people in attendance. So yeah, Arkansas.
LSU – I make this pick only based on the fact that LSU’s punter is awesome.
Well, since Taylor Martinez said it,
I pick Iowa then, because Taylor Martinez said that Dennard Robinson struggled against the WIND!
Martinez told reporters this week that high winds — and not the MSU defense — slowed down U-M quarterback Denard Robinson in the Spartans’ 28-14 win. He also said MSU is just "another good defense that we face." MSU ranks second nationally in total defense (222.9 yards allowed per game) and first in Big Ten rushing defense (88.9 per game).
In the deed, the glory.
Corn Nation!
Follow @Aaron_Musfeldt
Michigan: Wouldn’t be shocked if Iowa pulled off an upset, but Robinson may have a field day against the Hawkeye D.
Michigan State: Poor Minnesota is not going to have a good time facing an angry, embarrassed MSU squad.
Wisconsin: No Hail Mary this week.
Arkansas: I don’t think either of these teams are top ten worthy, but they obviously get the benefit of the doubt in the polls due to conference affiliation. Regardless, I’m taking Arkansas at home with their strong offense…well, as strong as it could be against Vandy and Ole Miss.
Alabama: Ahhh…yes…the OVERSIGNING BOWL! Saban gets the victory due to home field and Richardson. I still don’t have much faith in the LSU offense.
Hmm, some week I'll actually do well on my picks
Michigan
MSU
Wisconsin
Arkansas
Alabama
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
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