Post Week 10 - 2011 Bowl Projections
by Bama Hawkeye on Nov 6, 2011 6:05 AM CDT
in Bowl Projections
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This was supposed to be a breather week in the Big Ten. There weren't any great matchups. We were supposed to be waiting for the stretch run that starts next weekend with Penn State-Nebraska. But here's the thing about having teams that are good, but not great: they can lose games that they shouldn't. Nebraska did that. Michigan did that. Ohio State and Michigan State came really close to doing that. As it stands, the winner of Michigan State-Iowa will now control its destiny in the Legends Division. Nebraska and Michigan each need to win out and hope for a Sparty loss along the way (and Michigan will now need an Iowa loss too). The Leaders Division didn't see any real shake up, but will the mess in the Penn State athletic department have any impact on the preparation for these next three games?
Currently, I see three B1G teams that could get an at large BCS bid.
- 10-2 Wisconsin. The Badgers win out, but Penn State clinches the division after beating Nebraska and Ohio State.
- 10-2 Nebraska-Michigan winner. The winner of this game wins out, but Sparty wins the division.
- 11-2 Penn State. The Lions sweep the regular season, but fall in the B1G Championship Game.
Everybody else will need to win the league to get to a big time bowl, because a three-loss team isn't going to cut it this season. As for the actual projections, let's remember that there are rules:
- The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
- The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Fiesta Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Orange Bowl.
- Until a team is officially bowl banned, we assume that they can and will go. So, no USC. Ohio State, Oregon, North Carolina, <ahem> Miami...you're in consideration until otherwise notified.
- If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will NOT be required to take a non-automatic qualifier. This was only required of the Rose Bowl the first time (2010 season) it occurred over the current four-year contract.
- The Insight Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Gator Bowl this year. It will rotate the other way next year.
Got it? Good. Let's get on to the projections.
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Can an NFL quarterback beat THAT defense? Can he do it in THAT defense's backyard? And yes, I have Oklahoma State losing to Oklahoma in their finale. |
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I have Penn State winning two of their next three and the B1G Championship game. Oregon finishes 10-2, and gets an at large bid to replace Stanford. |
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And here is how Oklahoma State gets screwed. Assuming that they lose to Oklahoma, they finish 11-1. Sugar Bowl take an SEC team to replace LSU. Rose Bowl takes a Pac-12 team to replace Stanford. Fiesta has the next pick, and will choose between Boise, the Big East Champ, and a 10-2 B1G team. I think they go B1G. There are no remaining at large spots, and the Cowboys fall to the Cotton Bowl. |
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Alabama's not dead yet. If Arkansas win out, which would include a win in Baton Rouge, Bama, LSU, and the Hogs would finish in a three way tie that would be decided by the BCS standings. Timing of loss might put Bama in the SEC Championship Game (much like Texas over OU and Tech in 2009). But, do we think Arkansas can beat this LSU team? |
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A tip of the hat to the Bearcats, which now have a 2 game lead (counting tiebreakers) over the rest of the Big East. |
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9-3 Nebraska gets chosen over a return trip from 10-3 Sparty. The third team from the SEC West is looking like a lock here. |
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This would be a matchup of 10-3 division winners and conference title game losers. |
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I am penciling in the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game here. K-State gets the nod as the fourth team from the Big 12 (behind OU, OSU, and Texas). |
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It may be sexy because it says Florida, but this could well be a 6-6 Florida team that only beat Vandy, Tennessee, Kentucky, and three non-con garbage teams. |
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Did I overreact last week? Maybe. But, the same problems were there as Iowa tried to hang on to the win. They get chosen over the return trip from Illinois. And yes, I have them winning game number seven in West Lafayette. Expect the Big 12 to send the second best of Baylor, aTm, and Mizzou. |
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If Illinois loses to Michigan and Wisconsin, is this the end of Zook? I think Conference USA sends the loser of Tulsa-Houston. |
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As Bama Hawk Girl said last night, if Northwestern wants to make beating Nebraska every year their new thing, I am perfectly OK with that. Wins over Rice and Minnesota make the Purple bowl eligible. NIU wins the MAC and gets an exciting matchup with the Battle for Batavia. |
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If you can't get to six wins, you'll spend bowl season on the couch with the Queso Bowl. Purdue has a route. The need to beat either Ohio State or Iowa in West Lafayette and Indiana in Bloomington. If they get to six wins, I expect that the Pizza Bowl picks them ahead of Northwestern. If the B1G has an extra team available, they will find a bowl this year. The likelihood that the Big 12 and SEC both fill all of their bowl slots is between slim and none. Minnesota joined Indiana as teams who can't get to a bowl, but are playing better. |
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If MSU were to lose in the BTCCG (which I don't see happening)
I would gladly take the outback. Different stadium, different bowl, different city, and for once a team that wasn’t ranked #2 during the season at one point.
Nope, you get Bama, after georgia beats LSU in the SEC championship game to make everything complete chaos.
I just want to watch the world burn.
by Bob Genghiskhan on Nov 6, 2011 8:29 PM CST up reply actions
By all accounts it's also:
Nicer stadium, nicer bowl experience, nicer city.
Jack Trice Stadium - Easily one of the Top 10 Stadiums in Central Iowa
by Not Marv Cook on Nov 7, 2011 9:59 AM CST up reply actions
I've never heard Tampa described as the "nicer city"
in any comparison not involving Jacksonville. Unless you’re talking “gentlemen’s clubs” in which case, Tampa can’t be beat
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Orlando is a fricking dump for anyone over the age of 12.
The Magic Kingdom loses its charm right about the time puberty sets in.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
Good to see NU back in the hunt
Detroit sucks at this time of the year, though. It would be nice to win out and go somewhere warmer.
Agreed, although I'd never expect I'd ever say this....
…but Detroit in late December is better than sitting at home with the Rotel.
Weather aside (and it is an indoor game)
Detroit gets a bad rap. Ford Field is a solid stadium, and if you know where to look, it can be a great city to visit.
Now, an anecdote that seemingly refutes my previous statement: When NU went to the Motor City Bowl in 2003, there was a stabbing (unrelated to the game) in the hotel where NUMB was staying.
I went to the Motor City Bowl
I agree that it isn’t all THAT bad, but it is still a not-great northern city in late December. At least they moved the game to the 27th; last time, I was traveling on Christmas for the game on the 26th.
by MountainTiger on Nov 6, 2011 8:53 AM CST up reply actions
even winning out might not be enough to avoid Detroit
i dont think the ticketcity bowl is gonna want us back after our showing (or lack thereof last year). so meineke would have to choose us over someone like iowa, ohio state,or illinois, which doesn’t seem particularly likely.
we can at least beat northern illinois
and get the damn monkey off our backs
by LincolnParkWildcat on Nov 6, 2011 11:46 AM CST up reply actions
I actually would love to go to Detroit
My family lives in NE Ohio, so I’d already be in the area.
Michigan..is going to lose to OSU
Doesn’t that give OSU a better bowl than UM?
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
’Bama is predicting a win for UM- hence him saying “The winner of Michigan-OSU here”.
http://www.frogsowar.com/
Bamako has been over-rating Michigan all season
And saying they should have beat Iowa seems a bit silly as Iowa has now won three games in a row in the series and never trailed yesterday.
But I guess sticking to his guns is more important than objective analysis.
There's some amazing displays
of myopic-homerism in these threads.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Until yesterday, Iowa had NEVER won 3 straight over Michigan. Additionally, Vegas had Michigan a 4 point favorite, away. I don’t think he was going out on a limb here.
And Iowa outplayed Michigan the entire game.
For the third year in a row. Just because Vegas doesn’t recognize Iowa is very good at home and very bad on the road doesn’t mean that OBJECTIVELY one can’t determine Iowa is and has been better than Michigan for sometime.
That sounds like the same logic Iowa fans use to determine that MSU has no chance this year
When, if the Spartans lose, it will in actuality have nothing whatsoever to do with some streak from 1989 and everything to do with the 2011 Hawkeyes having more points on the scoreboard at the end of the game then 2011 State.
What are you talking about?
I pointed out Iowa has outplayed michigan three years in a row. How is that unsound logic? It’s an objective fact. I said nothing about Michigan State.
If you notice, I'm not responding to you.
I’m responding to the flawed logic that Iowa never beating Michigan three times in a row is relevant.
gotcha, my bad
I blame the SB Nation iPhone app for my reading comprehension fail.
by Torbee on Nov 7, 2011 9:24 AM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
Ah, it wouldn't be a bowl-projection thread
without you coming on to chastise everyone about using past results to predict future results.
Can we just say that we get it? Maybe it’s time for you to get a new schtick. You’re correct, of course, but that is irrelevant to the fact that this is a projections thread, it is bound to be highly speculative and subjective.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
People don't get it
And continue to bring it up.
So, no. I won’t stop my ‘schtick’ until people are more informed about awfully simple logic.
A couple of points
1) If they haven’t gotten yet, they won’t get it ever. You’re just pissing in the wind
2) Your high-mindedness would be a little more convincing/tolerable if you ever turned your attention to your fellow Spartans fans, and not those of every other fanbase
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
I haven't seen any Spartan fans being stupid with regards to predictor methodss
Otherwise, I would call them out on it. As I have in the past.
You see what you want to see, I suppose. I can’t stop you from that. Certainly, though, you can accept that you can’t stop me from being frustrated when I see silly mistakes and try to correct them. Repeatedly.
So, let’s go our own respective merry ways on this topic, shall we?
Than you missed just about every thread
in the lead-up to the Wisconsin-MSU game, because “Wisconsin has struggled historically at East Lansing” was a frequently mentioned meme by the Spartan faithful in discussing why they were optimistic about MSU’s chances.
Lord knows I will never fault anyone for pointing out the stupidity of others; hell, it’s one of my favorite things to do. But when there is a glaring omission from your gaze, it tends to undercut your argument. Conversely, if you want to have an agenda and go after the fans of other teams, that’s fine too, but dressing up homerism in the cloak of intellectualism doesn’t make it any less shameless.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Sometimes, people talk themselves into conclusions about football teams by week 3
And, regardless of what they do, that conclusion is sealed. It’s the sports fan’s version of cognitive dissonance.
This is one of those times.
I know we shout it every season but this is the absurdity of the BCS "system".
We know that Boise can beat anyone on any given Saturday. They have proven this to be true. However they effectively play two games against quality competition a year. One against the big boy team they play to open the season and one when they get “selected” for their BCS bowl after playing 11 tomato cans. The best analogy I can think of is if the Kansas City Royals were to play 6 games in the regular season against the Yankees and Red Sox and then 156 games against the Toledo Mud Hens but yet we put them in the MLB playoffs. I’m not saying BSU isn’t good. I amsaying that without a playoff in football or short of BSU joining the Big XII, we really don’t know how good they really are.
Second. Cincinnati is poised to go to their 3rd BCS game in the past four years. It just seems ludicrous to me that Cincy can point to this success yet MSU may very well get shafted out of a BCS bowl again this year.
Non-AQ teams are 5-2 in BCS bowls
One game was between TCU and Boise State, so they are 4-1 against AQ competition. The sample is small, but it seems to me that too few non-AQ teams are being selected if those that are selected are this dominant.
by MountainTiger on Nov 6, 2011 9:00 AM CST up reply actions
Penn State had Boise's problem and fixed it
They scheduled better games as an independent, then joined a conference.
If Boise wants to play with the big boys, they got to schedule better people. And that will mean either joining another conference, or playing 3 of 4 non-con games on the road.
Whining about how it isn’t fair is like asking to be a Marine without “going to that sucky boot camp stuff”.
Paul
by pmeisel on Nov 6, 2011 11:49 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The "Boise doesn't schedule real teams" meme is played out
The simple fact is, Boise has attempted to play a better out-of-conference schedule and has been incredibly proactive in seeking out a better/tougher conference to play in. Other than their somewhat outrageous demands in re a series with Nebraska, Boise has been quite willing to play wherever against marquee opponents.
And, now that I’ve praised both Boise and Nebraska (implicitly), I need to scrub down with bleach and steel wool
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Hmm... I read that Boise wanted upwards of $1.2 million for a game. Most are in the $500,000-$800,000 range.
That’s not particularly accommodating in my view. How does Fresno get some many good OOC game? If Boise wanted 4 quality OOC games, they could get it done.
They're like that with everyone
they want either a home and home or an ungodly amount of money to come to you. Florida State, Miami and Penn State all were willing to go anywhere it took to get the recognition without demanding blood money.
In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.
Why should Boise ask for less?
OOC games between Boise and AQ conference teams get more national attention than most opponents. If a team is afraid to travel to them, they should expect a program at Boise’s level to demand a big payday. It would be foolish for them not to.
by MountainTiger on Nov 6, 2011 3:59 PM CST up reply actions
That's why I said
“other than their somewhat outrageous demands…” What part of that indicates my belief that they were accommodating?
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
One game isn't sincere.
Boise does have a chance to earn their place in the BCS by scheduling multiple games against the big boys. If your quality win is in game one, followed by weaklings, your effort has to be questioned. How would they fare having to play viable teams back to back? While other schools play schedules that include multiple ranked teams, boise sits back bitching playing inferior teams on a blue field.
I also think Boise's record
versus “quality” opponents if they played them during Week 2 or later; in other words, couldn’t spend multiple weeks focusing on the one opponent
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
That's what I was getting at in my post.
That being said, Boise comes to play MSU to open the season next year and I’m probably more worried about that game (and the tone it will set for the season) than any other on the schedule.
BSU to my knowledge did not demand a return game from us.
You playing them at east lansing
or Ford Field? Boise has been very willing to the the “neutral” field game, even if it is a de facto home game for their opponent. And other than the proposed series with Nebraska – where Boise’s demands were incredibly unreasonable – they’ve been awfully willing to play solid teams.
GODDAMN IT! Why do I keep defending Boise? I feel ill.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
E.L.
It’s the Friday night ESPN kick off game, so maybe that is why they were willing to “settle” for a single game on the road.
Interesting
in the past couple of years, they’ve gotten the Labor Day marquee game. Figured this was another one of those.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
I expect to hear them whine about playing a green team on a green field
/stupid joke that will be repeated every time this game is brought up by ESPN
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Boise loses a ton of senior starters
I believe they lose 10 of 11 starters on defense and 6 starters offensively.
3 game series
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5742093
@MSU in 2012
@BSU in 2022
@MSU in 2023
Of course, the last two games could be voided if BSU joins an AQ Conference.
The Kansas City Royals have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs after winning their first game of the season.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 6, 2011 4:34 PM CST up reply actions
Nebraska has just been Northwestern'd
Welcome to the B1G…it happens to someone every year.
"My love for Jerry Kill knows no bounds." - Jeffrick
by TheEvilProfessor on Nov 6, 2011 9:05 AM CST reply actions
The role of Iowa State is now being played by Northwestern.
There were a couple of years over the last 20 that Nebraska should have mopped the field with the smart fellers from Ames, but came up on the losing end. Now it’s Northwestern playing the role of the smart fellers…
Iowa is now grateful that Nebraska has joined the B1G because Northwestern can ruin their seasons instead
"My love for Jerry Kill knows no bounds." - Jeffrick
by TheEvilProfessor on Nov 6, 2011 1:40 PM CST up reply actions
Really?
with the smart fellers from Ames
Is my sarcasm meter broken?
by MSULaxer27 on Nov 6, 2011 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
It's all relative
Remember, they’ve been playing Okie State for 80 years.
One more bit of snark
Also, ISU is an AAU memeber.
I’ll stop now
Fact isn't snark.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 6, 2011 10:53 PM CST up reply actions
"A win is a win is a win is a win...is a win."
- What I was forced to tell myself, repeatedly, after yesterday’s near-disastrous performance against Minnesota
Perhaps those pesky Gophers have turned a corner (or something), but MSU still looked like a bunch of pee-wees out there yesterday. What a gross game to take the Legends division lead on.
But, take it we shall!
I still don't like Iowa's odds next week
but the MSU game looks a lot less scary now than it did this time last week. Of course, Iowa has to end its season with back-to-back road games, and we’ve shown now ability to win on the road at all so far this season.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
I'm glad you guys won this week
because playing at Kinnick the week after you lose a game is hell.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
by SpartanDan on Nov 6, 2011 7:26 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Well, Michigan all but killed itself in the race for the Legends division yesterday.
But it’s more proof that MICHIGAN SUCKS!
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 6, 2011 10:49 AM CST reply actions 5 recs
Yup.
Three-way tie is no good because if it’s Iowa-MSU-Michigan they lost to both, and if it’s Nebraska-MSU-Michigan they would drop out on division record. MSU has to lose twice for Michigan to win the division. Not impossible if we play like we did yesterday, but with our schedule I wouldn’t bet on it.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
I'm praying for TCU, SDSU, or Wyoming to upset Boise.
That will pretty much guarantee the B1G two BCS bids. Without any non-AQs, it would pretty much ensure two bids from the Pac-12, B1G, SEC, and Big XII, and one from the ACC and Big East.
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Nov 6, 2011 11:07 AM CST reply actions
There's something very wrong with your record predictions.
You’re predicting that Penn State will beat Nebraska, which leaves Nebraska with a 9-3 record AT BEST if they beat Michigan and Iowa.
Beep beep, out of my way! I'm a motorist!
Beep beep, out of my way! I'm a motorist!
by Cornbadger on Nov 6, 2011 11:20 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I'd love a Stanford/LSU matchup as I think they're built to match up with LSU the best
I also like the Wisconsin/Oklahoma match-up but I believe Wisconsin will still win this conference and play in the Rose Bowl.
I think you give Penn State too much credit. The rough portion of their schedule hasn’t begun yet, and I think they could still finish with 2 conference losses on the season.
Ohio State comes up short, not because of a loss to Penn State, but I think, dare I say, a loss the following week in that one hell hole. I think the Buckeyes beat Penn State in Columbus though.
Congrats to all Iowa fans!!
You were my second favorite team for the day yesterday. I was at the Shoe when they announced the scores and a loud applause was had.
Let's see
I’ve defended Boise and, slightly by implication, Nebraska above and biggy is praising Iowa. REPENT NOW for this thread is surely the first sign of the Apocalypse.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
We cant blame you for overreacting Bama
any Iowa fan who says he wasnt overreacting in some way last week is a filthy liar. hell even Ross was close to calling for heads and he is the calmest Iowa fan i know usually
honestly, i said at the beginning of the year that if Iowa got to 7-5 or above in a year where we lost most of our starters who were mostly NFL caliber talent, i would be happy. even with the inexcusable losses to ISU and Minny we still have a good shot at it. I think we win at least one more game in Purdue, MSU is the one team without a speedy QB which may be good or bad, and Nebraska feels like a lesser version of Michigan to be honest.
i think we have a fair shot at 8 wins, with a punchers chance at 9.
"Your spelling and grammar errors belie a seriously skilled thought process"- therealCatnuts
by justsomehawkeyefan on Nov 6, 2011 11:47 AM CST reply actions
You know what would be an awesome bowl?
Iowa vs Florida III………………This time its PERSONAL!
"Your spelling and grammar errors belie a seriously skilled thought process"- therealCatnuts
by justsomehawkeyefan on Nov 6, 2011 11:50 AM CST reply actions
All the uncalled penalties?
ALL. THE. PENALTIES.
In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.
And Fuck Florida.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 6, 2011 4:00 PM CST up reply actions
No, its Fuck Clemson
Dikaia Upotheke - Justice Our Foundation
by Lord Willie on Nov 7, 2011 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Offsides on all Iowa KOs
The refs for the game have not been named, but note that Iowa will kickoff from the 25 all game since they are already offsides.
I just can't fathom
how Alabama managed to drop 2 ranks. That’s it. If that would have been OSU, they would be like 13th. Boise State gets fucked. I apologize for my language, but this popular voting shit is just absolutely out of hand.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Nov 6, 2011 12:42 PM CST reply actions 4 recs
BUT OMG SEC
And besides, if you voice this opinion elsewhere, you’ll get called a “butthurt Big Ten fan”.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 6, 2011 4:00 PM CST up reply actions
BUT OMG SEC
There’s no way anyone from any other conference ever could have scored more points against LSU’s (ignoring Oregon’s 335 yards and WVU’s 533) or Bama’s (ignoring Penn State’s anemic offense getting 11 points) defense! Clearly, these are the best two teams in the country
Please, someone beat those teams before the end.
Boiler Up, Go Blue
Why?
They lost by 3 points in OT to the #1 team in the country. They clearly belong in the top 5. I see no problem with them being ranked at 4.
by The Mexican't on Nov 6, 2011 9:11 PM CST up reply actions
Exactly.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 6, 2011 10:54 PM CST up reply actions
I think his point
whether correct or not, was to assert that there would be a different standard for an Ohio State or B1G team who did the same thing.
People agonized over keeping Michigan as the #2 team after losing to #1 OSU.
I think people know a good team (generally) when they see one.
Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.
by Kyle McCann't on Nov 6, 2011 11:30 PM CST up reply actions
Iowa Hats
Hey, can you change the helmet of Iowa to its correct America’s team format?
http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/876530/mqblpd.jpg
by irrationaliowaguy on Nov 6, 2011 12:58 PM CST reply actions
America's team?
Looks a lot like the helmets Northwestern used in September:
http://cdn3.sbnation.com/photo_images/3990345/61210_Eastern_Illinois_Northwestern_Football_large.jpg
Iowa… unoriginal, as always.
Yes, but yours were done incorrectly
As evidenced by the helmet being held aloft. Flag protocol and decorum dictates that the blue field and white stars should be at the front of any decal/patch being worn so that it mimics the look of at the flag being charged into battle. The left side of Northwestern’s helmets are properly done, but the right sides were not.
So, suck it. You hate America
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
Well reasoned
I bow to you and your excessive corn-fueled patriotism.
How'd Northwestern do against Iowa this year, again?
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 6, 2011 4:01 PM CST up reply actions
Lost.
More importantly, NUMB managed to, apparently, somehow insult all of America’s farmers in the eyes of some Iowa fans.
1 in a row in the series
Go Hawks! Very impressive.
Where’s Floyd again?
Talking shit through Minnesota
Wow. That’s sad.
by mikjones24 on Nov 7, 2011 10:58 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm with you, MJ.
Pointing out that Iowa’s won 2 of the last 7 games is much better shit talking.
Surfmen93, I’m disappointed.
by MNWildcat on Nov 7, 2011 11:01 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
And to a Wisconsin fan, no less
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
by HoyaGoon on Nov 7, 2011 1:06 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That's a fail.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 10, 2011 3:21 PM CST up reply actions
I wouldn't write anyone off yet
The way this year is going, everyone we have penciled in as a front-runner now is probably going to be hacked down at some point in the next few weeks.
Boiler Up, Go Blue
I respectfully disagree
Running the numbers using rough odds for each game for the 7 contenders remaining, I think the more likely outcome is:
11-2 WI wins the B10 and goes to the Rose
9-3 NE goes to the Cap 1
10-3 MSU goes to the Outback
8-4 OSU goes to the Insight
9-3 PSU goes to the Gator
9-3 MI goes to the Meineke
7-5 IA goes to the Ticket City
7-5 IL goes to the Pizza Pizza
6-6 NW goes freelance
I also expect OR to beat Stanford, LSU to play Boise for the title, Stanford to go to the Fiesta and OkSU to go to the Sugar.
It’s not what I’m hoping for, but what I expect.
First, I use my own odds
Betting lines aren’t meant to predict outcomes but instead to balance the bets.
That said, I’m only using probabilities and not claiming to be prescient. I’d have made MI about a 60-40 favorite at IA. IA has looked bad this year, but MI hasn’t beaten much of anyone either.
WI and MSU have the easiest paths, so I expect them to win their divisions. PSU and IA have hard paths so I expect them to go 1-2. I have OSU, MI and NE going 2-1 because they have moderate schedules.
Like I said, I think my numbers are more likely than his. I could easily be wrong.
The cutest things
Are Spartan fans with an inferiority complex.
by lonewolf371 on Nov 6, 2011 8:00 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Awww
How cute – a Michigan fan gets defensive. About nothing.
Glad to see the success of our program’s infuriated you so much. I’d really like to have seen Wisconsin play Michigan, even in Ann Arbor, this season.
I mean, I don’t think much of Wisconsin away from Camp Randall, and yet…that would be hilarious.
Not infuriated at all
Just tickled with how much you care about Michigan even though they’ve sucked the last four years. Did a Michigan fan pick on you in elementary school?
I'm more impressed by 45-17 than 3-24
The CCG is at a neutral site and MSU didn’t win by much at home. I’d give WI 2-1 odds of beating MSU right now, but might change that based on the next 3 weeks.
Camp Randall vs. Memorial Stadium?
I’m more impressed with a team that won the head-to-head than a team that lost a head-to-head.
Call me crazy.
by cwel87 on Nov 6, 2011 9:09 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
MSU can't play well away from home
They beat tOSU when tOSU was in shambles without Boom Herron and still playing Bauserman for half the game. Other than that, they haven’t beat anyone with a pulse on the road. In fact, they’ve looked quite terrible against anyone with a pulse on the road. At least Wisconsin has kept themselves in games to have a chance in the 4th quarter.
I guess overall I’m not that impressed with MSU. If they reverse their road fortunes this week and beat Iowa that will change. They’re favored by 3 so it’s a game they’re expected to win.
No one has beaten anyone with a pulse on the road.(except NU)
Michigan State has the second-best road win in the entire B1G, in fact.
You’re doing it wrong.
This is true
But Wisconsin and Ohio State haven’t mysteriously morphed into a MAC school in other stadiums like MSU has. Ohio State was a decent win, but like I said earlier it was their low point of the season and I don’t think MSU would pull it off now.
tOSU has mysteriously morphed into a MAC school at times
but it would appear that EPIC FAIL won’t be taking snaps any time soon.
In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.
Yes against Miami and Toledo
But like you were implying that was before Miller was cemented as the starter and Herron’s return.
The only reason Bauserman got into the MSU game...
….was because MSU’s defense made Braxton Miller look like a girl scout trying to play QB.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
You're crazy
Home field is worth 49 points?
This is last year all over again. MSU gets embarrassed in a road game and then wants to pretend it’s no different from a close loss.
Head to head:
MSU won close at home
Common opponents:
NE – WI won big, MSU lost big
OSU – MSU won close, WI lost close
They are similar caliber teams, but if I have to pick WI is my clear favorite on a neutral field.
One of these teams is 2-1 between the three games, and the other is 1-2
I understand the SABR-type approach, but baseball simply doesn’t work like football. Baseball is so weird in its approach, and utterly unique in its isolated team play.
We both agree that this weekend is a litmus test for the Spartans. I’m personally scared of the game for all the reasons you mentioned – but it has nothing to do with Wisconsin, and it has everything to do with Iowa.
If the Spartans win, then they hold two of the three best road wins within the conference by a long shot. If they lose, then the B1G is holding serve with regards to this seemingly ludicrous home-field advantage through the season.
MSU looking good away from EL
would certainly impact my thoughts. Of course WI starting to play like WI again also has an impact. If WI wins out easily, I’d probably still favor them at a neutral site over MSU but I’ll give MSU a better chance if they play well this week.
What happened?
So I am stuck out of town with no access to the Nebraska-NW game, very little to no cell phone coverage, and since I was in Kansas, no BTN. I finally find a station that has the game and realize Nebraska never led in the game and apparently NW has a defense. Awesome. I hate mobile QBs… and central Kansas.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
Takeaway from NU vs NU
Don’t sleep on the wizard . Fitz can flat out coach when no one’s paying attention.
Also Huskers, you better start circling this game every year. Fitz is only 36 yo and isn’t looking to move on. Rumor is that Brandon approached his agent after Harbaugh and Miles declined the UM job. He was told that Fitz is happy where he is.
Forget this week
How did your defense shut down MSU? I am all about the NU offense, but the offensive line hasn’t done particularly well against anyone with a pulse until the UNL game. They couldn’t get that kind of push against Army, much less the rest of the B1G schedule (Indiana excluded).
by MountainTiger on Nov 7, 2011 9:39 AM CST up reply actions
No freaking idea...
I told my dad that I was more nervous about this game than Penn State because Nebraska just cannot handle mobile QBs. As the early scores in the B1G started rolling in, I got even more worried about what kind of day it would be. I think the defense does well against pro-style offenses where a QB has to throw into the teeth of a Cover 2 with the Safeties both playing under the receivers. If you have any ability to create zone-read or option/playaction, you will most likely score and score often on Nebraska. To add to that, the DL is decimated. This DT unit has lost three starters… that’s never good. I still think Nebraska wins two of three, but that was just a really disappointing loss. Nothing against NW, but fumbles in the red zone and missed opportunities (like not being able to stop anything in the fourth quarter) made this as frustrating a loss as one can imagine. Oh well, on to the next one. Props to NW, they really put a good gameplan together and that Colter kid seems to be the real deal athletically. No excuses, though. The Penn State game has certainly been tarnished a bit, both by the loss and the obvious ugliness that is going out there. I have no idea how to predict focus for that game on either side.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
by KennardHusker on Nov 7, 2011 1:43 PM CST up reply actions
Sorry... that is a lot of rambling.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
by KennardHusker on Nov 7, 2011 1:43 PM CST up reply actions
Usually I agree
This was a 90th birthday party for my grandpa. That’s just one of those things you can’t miss or schedule anytime other than Saturday. Normally I would follow games on my iPhone, but that was going in and out of service as well… stupid att…
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
Author @ Off Tackle Empire
by KennardHusker on Nov 8, 2011 9:00 AM CST up reply actions
I propose a ban on all Saturday weddings in fall.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog, and Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog
#FireCraigJames
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Nov 10, 2011 3:21 PM CST up reply actions
Sorry to say, but I think this is the season where the B1G only gets one BCS bid, the Rose Bowl.
Will that help come bowl season? Hopefully yes. But with how schizophrenic the top teams are, I wouldn’t count on anything.
If the B1G only gets one BCS bid it will not end well
even if we happened to go undefeated, the talking heads would claim that it didn’t matter since the opponents were all playing up.
In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.
Question
Will ANY conference ever have the ability to rock the SEC? Or will they all be second best at best?
Bo Pelini
was outcoached 100-0 in this one. Every year Pelini teams struggle to get motivated and beat teams they should (17 point favorites means you should win). Pelini doesn’t necessarily lose games to better football coaches, he loses to better motivators. See Paul Rhodes, Pat Fitzgerald, Steve Sarkisian and Mike Leach.
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