FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings! (post-Championship Week)

In continuation of my previous post, I wanted to look at my Resume and Efficiency Rankings and the changes that occurred after the conference championship games. For all intents and purposes, these are the final regular season rankings. Sure, Army and Navy still play next week, but screw those guys (wait, don't do that, that's - OH GOD TED I'M SORRY DON'T HURT ME.)

Anyway. New rankings after the jump. (last weeks rankings can be found and an explanation of the rankings methodology can be found here: (<- click on that word)

THE JUMP.

Resume Rankings

NCAA Team (# Top 10 played, # Top 25, # Top 50) - LW Ranking

  1. LSU (3, 5, 8) - LW: #1
  2. Alabama (2, 3, 5) - LW: #2
  3. Oklahoma State (1, 3, 8) - LW: #3
  4. Arkansas (3, 3, 6) - LW: #5
  5. Boise State (0, 2, 6) - LW: #6
  6. Stanford (1, 2, 5) - LW: #8
  7. Oregon (2, 3, 5) - LW: #10
  8. Kansas State (1, 3, 6) - LW: #9
  9. South Carolina (1, 3, 5) - LW: #12
  10. Houston (0, 1, 3) - LW: #4
  11. USC (2, 2, 5) - LW: #14
  12. Georgia (3, 3, 6) - LW: #13
  13. Virginia Tech (0, 2, 4) - LW: #7
  14. Oklahoma (2, 3, 8) - LW: #11
  15. TCU (1, 2, 5) - LW: #16
  16. Baylor (2, 4, 7) - LW: #18
  17. Wisconsin (0, 3, 4) - LW: #19
  18. Michigan (0, 2, 4) - LW: #15
  19. Clemson (1, 2, 5) - LW: #23
  20. Southern Mississippi (1, 1, 3) - LW: #24
  21. Arkansas State (0, 1, 4) - LW: #20
  22. Nebraska (0, 4, 6) - LW: #21
  23. Michigan State (0, 3, 4) - LW: #17
  24. Penn State (1, 3, 4) - LW: #22
  25. West Virginia (1, 1, 3) - LW: NR
And the rest of the Big Ten:
  • 55. Iowa (0, 4, 4) - LW: #54
  • 64. Ohio State (0, 5, 6) - LW: #61
  • 70. Illinois (0, 4, 4) - LW: #69
  • 73. Purdue (0, 3, 4) - LW: #72
  • 74. Northwestern (0, 4, 4) - LW: #73
  • 96. Minnesota (0, 5, 5) - LW: #95
  • 119. Indiana (0, 3, 4) - LW: #119
Efficiency Rankings

NCAA Team (Efficiency) - LW Ranking
  1. LSU (0.811) - LW: #1
  2. Alabama (0.781) - LW: #2
  3. Boise State (0.723) - LW: #4
  4. Wisconsin (0.715) - LW: #3
  5. Michigan (0.699) - LW: #7
  6. Stanford (0.695) - LW: #8
  7. Oregon (0.690) - LW: #6
  8. Oklahoma (0.683) - LW: #5
  9. Michigan State (0.675) - LW: #9
  10. Florida State (0.665) - LW: #10
  11. Oklahoma State (0.662) - LW: #17
  12. TCU (0.660) - LW: #16
  13. Houston (0.652) - LW: #12
  14. Temple (0.650) - LW: #14
  15. Arkansas (0.648) - LW: #15
  16. Georgia (0.647) - LW: #11
  17. Notre Dame (0.641) - LW: #18
  18. USC (0.636) - LW: #19
  19. South Carolina (0.628) - LW: #20
  20. Virginia Tech (0.626) - LW: #13
  21. Missouri (0.616) - LW: #21
  22. Penn State (0.615) - LW: #23
  23. Texas A&M (0.614) - LW: #22
  24. Southern Mississippi (0.613) - LW: NR
  25. Rutgers (0.603) - LW: NR
And the rest of the Big Ten:
  • 26. Nebraska (0.601) - LW: #25
  • 32. Ohio State (0.583) - LW: #31
  • 50. Illinois (0.542) - LW: #51
  • 55. Iowa (0.536) - LW: #55
  • 66. Northwestern (0.504) - LW: #68
  • 68. Purdue (0.501) - LW: #67
  • 101. Minnesota (0.403) - LW: #99
  • 107. Indiana (0.375) - LW: #109
Discussion topics!

Every Game Counts (TM) - Good or Bad?
You'll notice in the Resume rankings that Houston remains a Top 10 team, and only went down one slot (from #12 to #13) in the Efficiency rankings. Do I think Houston is a Top 10 team? (raise your hand before you answer) No, I do not. And that's the problem with using computers that weight every game equally. While the human eye sees a 49-28 shellacking from Southern Mississippi and quickly re-evaluates their prior assumptions (hence the massive drop for Houston in the polls), the formula sees a bad performance that's just 1 out of 13 data points on the year. Adjustments are made, sometimes significant adjustments (see: Virginia Tech in these rankings), but by and large the change in the rankings are more reserved than what we might think is appropriate.
And yet, that's also the benefit of using computers that weight every game equally. We humans are an excitable bunch, prone to biases and forgetfulness. One bad performance (or one good performance) shouldn't matter more than all the other games that have been played, especially if we are to judge teams on the entirety of their resume. (Anyone remember USC beating Minnesota 19-17? How about losing to a 7-5 Arizona State by 21 points? Because, you know: THAT HAPPENED) A computer doesn't have those flaws and as such can keep those biases in check. Myself? I tend to agree with the Every Game Counts (TM) manifesto, and devised these rankings as such. Therefore: Arkansas can suck it.

Big Ten Parity, Yay! Wait...
Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State all reside in the Top 10 of the Efficiency rankings, and deservedly so (cue Sparty fan: Wait, why is Michigan ranked above us? Y'ALL JUST HATERZ.) But if we remember our math classes and the transitive property:
Big Ten
Iowa>Purdue>Ohio State>Wisconsin>Nebraska>Penn State>Iowa>Michigan>Nebraska>Michigan State>Wisconsin>Nebraska>Ohio State>Wisconsin>Michigan State>Iowa>Northwestern>Nebraska
vs. SEC
LSU>Alabama>Arkansas>All
Hence why the Resume rankings have all the Big Ten ranked teams are hovering in the high-teens, low-twenties, and the SEC takes 3 of the top 4 slots (Purdue losing to Rice and Northwestern losing to Army probably did not help). I imagine that this is the issue with several of the BCS computers (and public perception) as well. Fortunately, assuming my Efficiency rankings are not completely full of poop, the Big Ten can do a lot to change that this bowl season.

Speaking of Bowl Season
Ranking comparison for all the Big Ten match-ups (Resume, Efficiency)
  • Wisconsin-Oregon (-10, +3)
  • Michigan-Virginia Tech (-5, +15)
  • Nebraska-South Carolina (-13, -7)
  • Michigan State-Georgia (-11, +7)
  • Ohio State-Florida (-10, +7)
  • Iowa-Oklahoma (-41, -47)
  • Penn State-Houston (-14, -9)
  • Northwestern-Texas A&M (-28, -43)
  • Purdue-Western Michigan (-11, -11)
  • Illinois-UCLA (-5, +30)
Well folks, it looks like we have our work cut out for us. But hey, nobody said it was going to be easy.

- hoegher
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Off Tackle Empire

You must be a member of Off Tackle Empire to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Off Tackle Empire. You should read them.

Join Off Tackle Empire

You must be a member of Off Tackle Empire to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Off Tackle Empire. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker