Big Ten Basketball Tournament 2011: Seeding Impact of Today's Semifinal Matchups
by Graham Filler on Mar 12, 2011 10:31 AM CST
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PrintSome basic storylines for today's matchups, plus HERE is the latest SBN Bracketology predictions.
Penn State, bubblicious as usual and sitting in many "Last Four Out" brackets, have another chance to strengthen their chances for an NCAA Tourney bid with a win over Michigan State. The Spartans meanwhile, bubblicious for the first time in a bit, helped their chances tremendously by smashing Top 10 ranked Purdue and look to be a lock for the Tourney (Play-In games or Top 60 is yet to be decided).
On the other side of the bracket, Michigan's three point shooting pushed them miraculously past a talented Illinois team and into a probable #10 seed. OSU survived Northwestern weakly, but their #1 seed credentials are still solid, loss to Michigan or not. So let's lay out some scenarios...
MICHIGAN
Seed Range: #7 - #12
Michigan could push themselves even higher than a #10 with a monster win over a bigger, veteran Buckeye team. Joe Lunardi has been dropping Michigan steadily (down to a #12 seed yesterday), while SBN has Michigan sitting comfortably at a #10 seed. Winning the whole B10 Tourney could push the hothothot Wolverines as high as a #7 seed; an 11-3 season ending run plus a Tourney Championship are good bargaining chips. Losing today simply puts the Wolverines into that #10-12 seed range where they currently sit.
FINAL POINT: If MSU wins over Penn State and possibly Ohio State in the final, the Wolverines season sweep of State will start to look a bit better.
...
MICHIGAN STATE
Seed Range: #10 - Play In
It's hard to imagine a bigger win than yesterday's defeat of Purdue. MSU looked physically ready to defend like...every other Spartan team since Izzo took over. Shotblocking, hands in face, etc. This was a different team than the Spartan team that got hammered by Matt Painter's squad at the Breslin Center just a few weeks ago. Combine this with the Tourney Committee's faith in Tom Izzo and MSU is IN.
But where? Losing badly to Penn State would hurt Sparty's momentum and move them away from an #11 and closer to the play-in games. Two more wins and MSU becomes, again, the team no one wants to face in March.
FINAL POINT: Will committee members take less stock in the Purdue win because the Boilers didn't really need this game? Or will the members view it for the thrashing it was?
...
PENN STATE
Seed Range: #11 - Out
At the beginning of the Big Ten Tourney, their were essentially four teams on the bubble: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, PSU. The Nittany Lions had the weakest resume according to...everyone. But a WW1-battlefield inspired victory over Wisconsin breathes more hope into PSU's chances. Weak early season performances can be pushed aside with another quality win over a Top 50 opponent. We all know that Penn State might need a win to sniff the Tourney. But let's say they get that win...The question remains: Do they need to win the whole thing to get in?
FINAL POINT: How will PSU attack Kalin Lucas, the Spartan PG who has been dialed into "kill mode" for more than a month?
...
OHIO STATE
Seed Range: #1 - 2
Kansas, Pitt, ND, Duke, OSU, SDSU...maybe UNC....all in position to get a #1 seed. The Bucks have enough quality wins and lack of bad losses to make them a near lock. And they couldn't ask for a better matchup than against Michigan today. The Wolverines will have to wear themselves out to slow Jared Sullinger and his bulldozing inside play. Plus there's no way Ohio State shoots as badly as they did yesterday versus NW (32% from the field, 20% from three point land).
One could consider that a Michigan upset might knock OSU off the #1 seed line, but I doubt it. There would have to be a large number of things that ALL happen for OSU to move down (blowout Buckeye loss, plus Conference Tourney titles for all the above-listed teams still playing).
FINAL POINT: In their last matchup, Michigan led OSU for 30 minutes before succumbing 62-53. If OSU starts hot, it won't be so close.
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Correction
Not to distract from the topic of the post, but…
OSU survived Northwestern weakly
… should be “OSU survived Northwestern with heavy assistance from the refs in overtime, despite the Wildcats playing harder, running their offense better, and plainly just wanting to win more.”
But no, I’m not bitter.
figured
I didn’t sense any bitterness.
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Mar 12, 2011 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
Correction
OSU should have won in regulation, despite the wildcats fouling the crap out of everyone (esp Sullinger) so you should be thanking the refs for getting you to overtime.
I can see why you'd feel that way
And I might be sympathetic, too, if it weren’t for how overtime played out. The one thing you absolutely do not want in a game like that is a wild mood swing from the refs, and that’s exactly what we saw. Not only does it give teams extra free throws, but it messes with the momentum of the game in ways that the refs shouldn’t control.
Every play of a game has a foul. The refs choose which ones are important enough to call, and it’s impossible to ask them to be 100% fair. I try not to criticize the officiating because I know that I couldn’t do a better job. But we shouldn’t see a dramatic change in how they call a game, especially not in overtime, which is what bothers me.
Yesterday, the shift felt like “slight lean-Northwestern, some dumb calls in both directions” in the second half to “Sullinger can do no wrong, and really, it’s OSU-Northwestern! Of course OSU should win!” in overtime. I really don’t think it was intentional, but it was a wild swing, which is wrong. If a fanbase leaves feeling like the refs favored one side, it’s one thing. If everyone leaves feeling like they changed their minds mid-game, that’s a problem.
I will say, I’ve walked back a bit from my initial post-game response, which was “Ohio State’s all a bunch of thugs and felons! [Long string of profanity]” Your guys have a ton of talent and can put up a great game even when they have a down day.
Maybe they felt bad that the game was even in over-time.
That three never should have counted ;)
"Carrie, I can't go in there, I'm claustrophobic."
"Well, It's gonna' be a rough half hour for ya then."
-Doug Heffernan coming to grips with the cold reality of an MRI machine
I agree with most of this, esp the not criticizing the refs part, but the thing that gets me is when refs don’t call the game the same way for both teams. Esp in the second half, ohio state got nailed for playing physical, while NW got every call. Between the three, the called shot clock violation, and the sullinger charge, craft block sequence, OSU was due some calls, and honestly, if they called those overtime fouls in the first half like they should have (b/c imo northwestern was hacking sully all game long), OSU would have won big.
If Michigan can somehow beat OSU today
and to be fair, the Wolverines’ have played them very closely twice, Michigan would be playing a team that it’s swept in the Finals.
Maize-Colored Glasses: Previewing Michigan vs. Illinois, BTT Round 2
what Michigan a seven seed???
Michigan will be a 10 seed or 9 seed if they win it all..
MSU will be a 11 or 9 seed if they win it all..
PSU wins today…they will be a 12 seed (lock).
OSU loses today…still a lock for 1 seed…they won the big ten hands down..need to respect that.
Wisconsin…5 or 6 seed
Purdue:- 4 or 5 seed
Illinois:- 10 seed
FINAL POINT: Will committee members take less stock in the Purdue win because the Boilers didn’t really need this game? Or will the members view it for the thrashing it was"
Dude, NCAA is like BCS…they always look at the previous work..and that is why MSU is a lock where as PSU needs to win today.
remember winning the B10 tourney or any tourney does not guarantee success in the tourney.
remember Syracuse..always good in the Big east and then losing to vermont in 2005, Louisville, losing in the elite eight, Pitt, gr8 in tourney, georgetown…and so on..
Look at Wisc, in 2006, OSU, 2010….this tourney hardly matters..right now big ten is guaranteed 6 spots…depends on PSU for the seventh.
In other news
FUCK CLEMSON
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
Fighting the Battle of Who Could Care Less since 12/29/09
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Mar 12, 2011 4:10 PM CST reply actions
Yea, but WHO HATES IOWA?
"Carrie, I can't go in there, I'm claustrophobic."
"Well, It's gonna' be a rough half hour for ya then."
-Doug Heffernan coming to grips with the cold reality of an MRI machine
A school of imagination and non-existance IIRC
When are we going to change our name to the Big Eleven now that we’ve added Nebraska?
Maize-Colored Glasses: Recapping Michigan's loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament Semifinals
I think you may be thinking of Purdue. I'm almost positive they don't exist.
"Carrie, I can't go in there, I'm claustrophobic."
"Well, It's gonna' be a rough half hour for ya then."
-Doug Heffernan coming to grips with the cold reality of an MRI machine
Now that I re-read that, you are saying Purdue is the imaginary school that hates Iowa. I got it now lol.
"Carrie, I can't go in there, I'm claustrophobic."
"Well, It's gonna' be a rough half hour for ya then."
-Doug Heffernan coming to grips with the cold reality of an MRI machine
But what about
justMinnesota?
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
Fighting the Battle of Who Could Care Less since 12/29/09
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Mar 12, 2011 7:37 PM CST up reply actions
All I ask
is that they beat North Carolina. They’re on pace to do it. And then they collapse.
FUCK CLEMSON
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
Fighting the Battle of Who Could Care Less since 12/29/09
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Mar 12, 2011 7:04 PM CST up reply actions
Looks like Michigan will be an 11 or 12 seed.
Maize-Colored Glasses: Recapping Michigan's loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament Semifinals
color me shocked
HELP IS ON THE WAY
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Mar 13, 2011 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
okay?
Maize-Colored Glasses: Recapping Michigan's loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament Semifinals
My gut feel
MSU, Michigan in the 10-11 range; Penn State probably an 11; Illinois 11 or 12. Ohio State a 1, Purdue 3, Wisconsin 4.
I've got this terrible pain in all the diodes down my left-hand side.
Bradley-Terry rankings for college football and basketball: because there aren't enough computer rankings already.
Michigan's an 8 seed
Surprising, but not necessarily in a good way. Virtually no chance of the sweet sixteen.
Maize-Colored Glasses: A Quick Reaction to Michigan's NCAA Tournament Draw
word
Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day, you fritter and waste the hours in an offhand way.
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