OTE Minnesota Potluck -- Jerry Kill Looks Like Goldy the Gopher
It's Thursday....you're hungry....it's POTLUCK TIME!
That's right, it's OTE's weekly segment where the writing staff provides a dish (i.e., a question about the Team of the Week -- Minnesota), we all feast on the delicious knowledge, and then make Penn State clean all the dishes (non-Midwesterners ALWAYS get shafted with dish duty -- plus, it's fun to watch them complain that they never should have joined our potluck/conference). So follow us after the jump to re-live the Tim Brewster Failegacy, debate whether Minnesota might return to glory (and not just the decidedly mediocre, Glen Mason-type of Pizza Pizza Bowl level glory), and consider whether any coach more resembles his school's mascot than Jerry Kill.....
1. Appetizer: Ding Dong, Tim Brewster's Gone! (Although on his self-edited Wikipedia page, in addition to denying the Iowa 55-0 game, it probably says he "Chose to leave Minnesota to pursue awesome achievements in footballness elsewhere.") Give us your explanation for Timmy Brewster's biggest failure as Minnesota head coach, and why you're hopeful that Coach Kill (god what a name) will not repeat that particular failure.
Ted Glover: He was a victim of two things: Expectations and a glaring inability to coach. Glen Mason got the Gophers to a level of respectability that they had rarely seen in over 30 years, but the program had stagnated, and Tim Brewster told ‘Gopher Nation'he was taking us to Pasadena. It became pretty obvious that although he could recruit, he was unable to turn that talent into wins on the field. He went through offensive and defensive coordinators faster than a baby goes through diapers, and could never decide what his philosophy was going to be. Hint: if you can't get along with all 33 of your offensive and defensive coordinators, and the common denominator is the coach, maybe it really wasn't the coordinators. He started off as a spread offense guy, recruited for it, then decided he wanted to be a tackle to tackle power running team. And then a spread offense guy, then some hybrid combination that left quarterback Adam Weber learning a new offense every season. In retrospect, Brewster was nowhere near ready to be a head coach, and it showed.
2. Salad Course: Speaking of Coach Kill, he's part of a proud tradition of Big Ten coaches that came to the conference after succeeding as head coaches in the MAC, a list that includes Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler, Ara Parseghian, Randy Walker, Glen Mason, John Pont, Bill Mallory, and Terry Hoepnner. Which of these "MAC-to-Big Ten" coaches do you think Coach Kill will most emulate, and why? Or, alternately, what level of "success" based on his MAC-to-Big Ten predecessors would Coach Kill need to approach for this to be a good hire for Minnesota?
Chadnudj: Since my team (Northwestern) is now joining the Gophers in the Legends division, I'll admit this -- this question terrifies me. It terrifies me for the simple reason that I firmly believe Jerry Kill has the EXACT MAC-style DNA to take a talented, but under-coached and undisciplined Gophers team to a much higher level than we've ever seen. I mean, even in the relative Golden Age of Glen Mason at Minnesota, that team was STILL undisciplined, and guaranteed to mentally breakdown at completely inopportune times. I honestly don't think we'll see that happen again with Jerry Kill....hence, terror. I'd put him online with Randy Walker as his worst case (the guy understands coaching up football players and wins everywhere, and, frankly, Minnesota is a sleeping giant in terms of Big Ten football if you ask me...see my question below), and frankly something bigger than that as his best case. I only hesitate to say "Jerry Kill" and "Woody Hayes" or "Bo Schembechler" in the same sentence because, frankly, the Big Ten is much tougher than the Hayes-era (he won without 85-scholarship limits, etc.). I doubt Kill will ever get to the Woody/Bo level, simply because reaching that level is impossible in the modern B1G.....but win? Yeah, I think (and frankly fear) that Kill will win....frequently.
Ted Glover: I think Jerry Kill is his own guy and will chart his own course. If there is a similarity, I would think it's somewhere between Randy Walker and Bill Mallory, although I think Kill has more to work with now than either Walker or Mallory had when they took over their respective programs. These last few years have been Northwestern/Indiana like, but the Gophers did make it to a couple of bowls under Brewster, so I don't think the program is at a historically bad level from a talent perspective. In terms of what would be considered a success, that's tough to say. He's already successful in that he's putting as much distance between him and the Tim Brewster era as is possible, and that's a great thing. Is it wrong to think that in a couple years Minnesota can be competing for a New Year's Day bowl and finish in the top half of the Big Ten? No, I don't think so.
3. Potato/rice dish: True or False: Minnesota is the biggest "sleeping giant" in Big Ten football. While answering this question, consider the massive facilities upgrade they just completed, their proximity to a big city with all of its assorted benefits, a passionate and large alumni base, the fact that they just hired a coach who is actually competent at coaching from all appearances, and the fact that they did win 6 national championships, albeit before college football began in 1995 (Editor's Note: Starting year of college football based on the Northwestern/Fitzgerald calendar.)
Bama Hawkeye: False. It's Illinois, and it's not even close. You could argue that Minnesota has spent the better part of the last 50 years sleeping. However, the giant aspect needs to be brought into question. Let's start with the currency of college football: talent. Over the past five seasons, there have been 8 players from the state of Minnesota that have been graded as a 4-Star recruit by Rivals.com. The Gophers have managed to capture 4, or 50%, of those recruits. As securing the borders goes, a fifty percent clip on the most elite talent is pretty good. Now, let's look at Illinois. In the last five years, the Land Of Lincoln has produced 37 players graded as a 4-Star recruit. The Illini have captured 9 of them. That's not even 25%. That's not good. In fact, the amount available, paired with the poor capture rate, tells me that there is quite a bit of room for growth, i.e. a giant that is sleeping.
Looking at the other factors mentioned, I'm not sure how many are true for Minnesota. Facilities upgrade? Yes, but where does it put them in comparison to their peers? They're in a 50,000 seat stadium while the schools that care about football are all in stadia between 20,000 and 60,000 seats larger. They are close to a big city; I'll give you that one. "A passionate and large fan base." Heh. Never before have those words been said about the Gophers'fan base. It wasn't passionate enough to sell out the dome. It wasn't passionate enough to bring a decent traveling group to the bowls that Glen Mason was able to get the Gophers into. And, it wasn't even large enough to fill the 50,000 seat stadium in last Fall's games against OHIO STATE AND PENN STATE! That sounds like a small and dispassionate fan base to me. Competent coach? Could be. Of course, we all thought that Tim Brewster was much more than just competent 7 games into his reign, so let's hold off a bit on our judgments. Long ago championships? Check. Of course, that just gives them something in common with Southern Methodist, Dartmouth, and Lafayette, nothing more.
And after looking at this list, maybe the Gophers haven't been asleep. I'm beginning to think that they've been awake, and this is all that there is. Sleeping giant? No. Awake Gnome? Interesting thought.
Ted Glover: True, but those aren't the reasons why. If you've followed my rantings and diatribes over at the Minnesota Vikings blog The Daily Norseman, or if you follow the Vikings, you know that they are struggling to get a new stadium. With their lease at the Metrodome expiring after 2011, there is nothing keeping the Vikes in Minnesota at the end of the 2011 season. Unless something dramatic happens in the next few weeks, there will be no stadium bill passed, and it saddens me to say I think the Vikings will relocate. When that happens, the white hot football spotlight in Minnesota will turn to the only program that can fill the void of the Vikings leaving, and that's the Gophers. Yes, the facilities are in place, the right coach is in place, and if the Vikes leave, the Gophers will move front and center in into the consciousness of the Minnesota football fan, and there will be a lot of pressure to make Gopher football as competitive as the Vikings generally have been over the last 50 years.
4. Hot dish/Meat dish: The only thing worse than Minnesota's offense last season (23.2 points per game, 89th in the nation) was its defense (33.0 points allowed per game, 98th in the nation). The defense gets safety Kim Royston back, and will have a full season of CB Troy Stoudermire (who switched to CB from WR midway through last year). On offense, MarQueis Gray takes over for Adam Weber (who may have been unfairly maligned given that he played for 3 separate offensive coordinators in 4 years). Are these changes enough to turn Minnesota into a winning program? In other words, what's reasonable in terms of expectations for the 2011 Gophers?
Graham Filler: It's a long offseason. Fans get bored and hyped up on coffee, leading to weird hallucinations and dreams of winning seasons, victories over rivals, etc. Many Gopher fans will mistake these dreams for reality in 2011, and I'm willing to allow them a few of these dreams because of one reason: The schedule. It's favorable. The home game against Nebraska is winnable if the Cornhuskers pull a 2010 and lose the ability to pass. The away games against Michigan, Purdue, and NW are all tossups thanks to the questions surrounding those programs. What I'm saying is that even a blind squirrel with improved coaching, morale, and team defense finds a nut sometimes...and it doesn't hurt if other programs are rebuilding at the same time. If we're completely honest on OTE, which we are, we'll tell you that Minnesota 2011 is not that much different talent-wise as Minnesota 2010. But a cozy schedule and the inevitable "new coach bump" could make for a 6 or 7 win Gopher squad.
Ted Glover: The changes come from the mindset that Jerry Kill is instilling. He calls it 'The Minnesota Way', and it's all about working and doing what you're supposed to--you're going to go to class, you're going to hustle all the time, and you're going to earn everything that's given to you as a member of the Gopher football team, or you're not going to play. It's a shock to the system, much like having ice water thrown on you, but the only way he's going to turn it around is to completely change the mindset that Brewster let fester.
As to expectations for 2011, I think there's more talent on this football team than the 3-8 record would have you believe. Once this team got a coach that knew what the hell he was doing and a little bit of confidence, they beat two bowl-winning teams at the end of the year, and in fairly dominating fashion. I'm not trying to say that this is a team that will be playing for the Big Ten Championship, but when you look at the schedule, you can chart a path to six wins and a bowl. And that, in and of itself, would be one hell of an accomplishment.
5. Dessert:Coach Jerry Kill and Goldy the Gopher bear a remarkable physical resemblance. Nominate another coach who resembles his school's mascot (official or unofficial) as much as Jerry Kill looks like Goldy.
Chadnudj: That is an uncanny resemblance between Kill and Goldy. Truly, there is only one competitor to Jerry Kill in the "Coach-to-Mascot Resemblance" contest that I can think of:
Yeah, that's right.....I said it -- Lane Kiffin resembles a condom. He's even slippery/lubricated like one.
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Lane Kiffin...condom
Peas…carrots
Harold…Kumar.
"Lord I pray for the eyes of an eagle, the heart of a lion and the balls of a combat helicopter pilot."
I somewhat disagree with Ted's assesment
There is no garauntee Minneapolis fans will latch on to the Gophers leave and I frankly doubt it will happen. The history of sports in that city spells it out pretty clearly; they show up when teams win and couldn’t care less when they don’t.
The Twins (the most popular team in the city) was neck in neck with the Expos in the MLB redaction derby a while ago because nobody showed up. Vikings games were full and loud when they were good but certainly not when they were bad. If the Gophers are taking that level of concern among the people of Minneapolis they will have to start winning.
Even then, give an estimate as to how many fans that attend Vikings games are actually from the Twin Cities. There are surprisingly large numbers of people from Northern Iowa and the Dakotas who are willing to trek to those games (My freshman year roomate at Iowa and his dad drove four hours from their home each week to watch the Vikings). Those people probably either have rooting interests with a closer collegiate team or are too far for a mediocre team to really persuade them to travel.
Add to that the fact that Minneapolis is a pretty well educated metropolitan area with many non-Minny graduates and I think you conclusion is false. The Gophers will surely get better media coverage with no pro football in town, but it is unlikely their fan base will grow much larger. If they grow it will be because Coach Kill managed to get them winning, not just because the Vikings fans transplanted themselves. If they struggle these next couple years (and I think you assume they won’t by stating they have the right coach in place which is where most of our disagreement probably is) then I think they will be in the same situation they have always been.
The big question is what kind of success the general population in Minneapolis will want in order to justify actually going to TCF Bank. and supporting the team. Looking at the rest of the pro sports franchises in Minneapolis the standard seems to be set pretty high. Do you think Kill can reach that in his first couple of years? In a division with Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern and Iowa I think it is going to be pretty hard.
http://victorypolka.blogspot.com/
Minneapolis is a very crowded sports market
If you chart the course of MN sports, the Gophers were it until the 60’s, when the Twins and Vikings showed up and most of the interest in U of M sports tanked. Now there’s 7 sports franchises (4 pro, 3 U of M) for 3.5 million people to follow, and most of them overlap seasons, so it’s not all that surprising the Gophers are not or will not have a die-hard fan base like a Madison or Iowa City have. It’s simple supply and demand
When we get the Pig, the Jug and the Axe, we'll have one hell of a picnic
Minneapolis crowded sports market?
Marshmoose, you are shooting yourself in the foot with this argument. You said it yourself, there is 3.5 million people in the Twin Cities metro area. How many do you think there is in Madsion or Iowa City? It is a fraction of that. They SHOULD be able to support the 4 pro teams and the U. If anything they look worse now. Iowa and Wisconsin have to draw their crowds from much longer driving distances. 2 football teams for 3.5 million people sitting right on top of the stadiums, they should be selling out 70k plus seat stadums every week!
You have some points...
…but here’s what I think you are missing. First, in a crowded sports market that means there are too many options and not enough $$$ (especially in this economy). Sure, there are a lot more people (and thereby sports fans) in closer proximity to the U. But since these fans are also likely to be Twins fans or Vikings fans (or heck, Wild fans) that means they have to choose where they spend their money to see games. And thanks to 50 years of mediocrity (or worse) the Gophers have lost their spot as a primary recipient of sports dollars.
Sure, Iowa and Wisconsin pull fans from farther away. But that is also due to the fact that A) they’ve been more successful, and B) these fans from rural areas don’t have as many options for where to spend their dollar. Heck, in Iowa the Hawkeyes ARE IT. You have to go to the Cities, Chicago, KC, or STL to get pro options. In Wisconsin you don’t have a popular pro hockey franchise pulling money out of the market, Packer season tickets are impossible to get, and the Brewers haven’t done enough to fully sustain a level of support comparable to the Twins. Just like the Twolves, I will completely ignore the Bucks.
Second...
…Iowa and WI have better gameday atmospheres on campus. This involves a couple of elements. Both schools are in true college towns. This means the town revolves around the football game on a home Saturday. That’s never going to happen at a true metro school. Also, they’ve cultivated an on campus experience that is fun to participate in even if you don’t go to the games with the tailgating, bar, and near to the stadium scene. This is what the U destroyed by moving off campus to the Dome. And the current administration still hasn’t figured out the importance of this element with their current tailgating plans/policies. Another thing that can’t be overlooked is the level to which Iowa City and Madison local governments help grow this atmosphere. Minneapolis has NOT been helpful in making the transition back to campus an easy one and I doubt they ever will be. That negatively impacts the options the U has. I hope the on campus experience will continue to improve (winning and enthusiasm will help drive demand for it) but I recognize that a Madison/Iowa City style party is probably never going to happen given the U’s true urban campus location and the additional complexities that adds.
You have some solid points
But Minnesota has one of the larger alumni bases in the country, and the reason they and the city are so dispassionate about football is because football has pretty much sucked for over 50 years. Like Marshmoose said, the Gophers started their decline about the time the Twins and Vikings showed up, and within five years the Twins were in the World Series and the Vikings were building up to the Purple People Eaters era.
There are a lot of people that want to cheer for the Gophers, but have better options in the Vikings and Twins (usually).
And I think you supported my argument when you used the Twins as an example. Yeah, they were almost eliminated, but then they began winning. Then they got a stadium. Now, they’ve got one of the better teams (well, not so far this year) in baseball and a ticket to Target Field is hard to come by. Because they started winning.
The new stadium has given the Gophers a chance, and if Kill can start winning, I can see the same thing happening. And not winning 6 games and going to the Pizza Pizza Bowl, but winning and competing for the B1G championship and going to bowls that are on or near New Year’s Day.
"Lord I pray for the eyes of an eagle, the heart of a lion and the balls of a combat helicopter pilot."
And I agree with most of this
But again it is based on Kill winning which is made to seem easier than it will be. The Gophers have talent but seriously look at their division, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Northwestern. All of those programs have either more momentum, more resources, or both over Minny. I liked Kill at NIU, but I do wonder if he will have that kind of success as quick as some would hope (and as much as I liked him at NIU, there is no evidence he will be the one to bring Minnesota out of mediocrity).
The standard seems very high for teams in Minneapolis to attract attention (to be fair there is plenty of nice stuff to do there) and if you are pinning your hopes on a new head football coach to get nine wins and a respectable January 1 bowl bid in a division where they were the only team not to go to the postseason last year (and the year before…) seems like a bit of stretch.
They could get 6-7 wins this year (would not surprise me if they beat Iowa again even) but the standard is awfully high and given the lack of resources Minnesota football has compared to its’ conference brethren I think the standards might be set to high to see much of a fandom spike regardless of what happens to the Vikings.
http://victorypolka.blogspot.com/
The Twins...
…also played in a souless dome that was a horrid place to watch baseball. And the team was owned by a family that clearly didn’t care about improving it. That is going to impact attendance. If the Twins become the Royals they will definitely slip back to that level of support. But if they remain competitive over the long hall (not dominant in the Central like they have been but just competitive) then with the new stadium I suspect the attendance will stay pretty consistent (no gorgeous but empty stadium like the Pirates have in other words).
Myth of the New Coach Bump
I aim to do an article about this topic eventually, but I would be interested to see how teams typically do in their first year under a new coach. One of my early ideas is that fans/administrators vastly overestimate the changes of success, when in actuality the new team/new coach combo is very similar (at least for one year) as the old coach/old team.
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
love these potlucks btw
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Apr 21, 2011 8:35 AM CDT up reply actions
You have to look at the body of work and not just year one
There’s a reason there’s a new coach. Heck, Kill’s track record his first year at a new place is pretty bad, but by the end of his tenure he was winning championships or going to playoffs everywhere he’s been.
"Lord I pray for the eyes of an eagle, the heart of a lion and the balls of a combat helicopter pilot."
Plus....
…Minnesota’s problem hasn’t been a talent deficiency. There’s plenty of talent on that roster.
The problem has been maximizing that talent and coaching them up. That is something Kill has NEVER failed at in any of his stops up the coaching ladder. Graham’s right that there may be some lag to the improvements, but we should be able to tell based on the way the Gophers play (with extra effort, less mistakes, more enthusiasm, better technique, etc.), rather quickly, if Kill’s methods will translate this year or in the future into wins. My bet is that they will.
chadnjudj
you summed it up completely. Great post. Brew’s 3 full recruiting classes finished 3rd, 6th, and 6th in the Big Ten ranking wise. Most of those guys are now upperclassmen. If the Gophers can develop some discipline (as Kill’s other teams have), and MarQueis Gray can stay healthy, by 2012 they could be awfully good. 2 things. One, Jerry Kill’s Offense with its pistol form mid-line option and tendency to run to set up the play action pass is PERFECT for Gray’s skill set. People forget that MarQueis Gray is one of CFB’s top shelf athletes, and while I’m not saying he is gonna ever be as good as Cam Newton, he does have a similar size and skill set.
If Kill is as good a coach as everyone claims he is, 2012 should be a huge year.
That said, I have no idea what to expect out of them this fall however. The lack of depth at O-line and WR could be problematic if there are any significant and lasting injuries. If the injury bug hits early the Gophers could be every bit as bad as last year’s edition.
Also, for those decrying the ‘GameDay’ atmosphere at Minnesota. The Gophers played off campus for 30 years which obviously had a negative affect. But now there is a stadium right in the heart of Dinkytown (which IS essentially a college town, albeit one that exists within a metropolitan area). Also, Bama Hawkeye as usual is horribly biased about the Gophers when he claims that Minnesota’s stadium limits their potential. Yes it is currently a 51,000 seat stadium (one that has officially sold out for every game they’ve played mind you), but the Bank is designed to expand to as much as 85,000 people over the long haul.
If Kill is able to win consistently the fan support will grow and The Bank will expand with it.
Ahli...
…I love your positivity. But the “college town” within a metro area sounds nice and means little if you are comparing it to traditional college towns. Fact is, the long term plan for the area around the stadium involves the replacement of almost all the surface parking near TCF with parking ramps (see here for details on the East Gateway District). I think it will end up being a great addition to the U. But it will eliminate most of the tailgating lots right next to the stadium. So that is one element that the U won’t be able to replicate compared to a traditional college town. Second, unless the City of Minneapolis stops being such a party pooper and allows private lot owners to offer tailgating the supply of tailgate spots near TCF can’t grow. It also limits the ability of private groups to rent the lots to host beer gardens the way lots near Camp Randall are used.
I love that the U is a true metro campus. I love that in 3 years there will be light rail right to the stadium. I love the idea of the East Gateway District. But it’s silly to pretend that it’s the same as a smaller college town atmosphere, especially given the U’s apathy to making simple changes (like offering day of game tailgate parking in lots that are a medium distance from the stadium) to improve the current on campus pregame/postgame atmosphere above what it is (which isn’t terrible and is of course light years above what was available around the Dome).
The U doesn’t need to pretend Stadium Village is a miniature college town. They need to embrace being an urban campus and do what it takes to foster a fantastic gameday atmosphere in a way that takes advantage of that urban setting.
goaupher
I don’t disagree with your points, which are valid. What I’m saying is that the Gophers can have their own brand of ‘College town gameday atmosphere’ without being an actual college town. You are correct that Minneapolis will never be Madison (something which is just fine by me). I think your points about increasing tailgating space, and the future benefit of the light rail are spot on.
If....
…Minny gets to play the “college team in a city with pro sports competition card,” then it needs to be acknowledged that Northwestern trumps Minny’s claim to it by about 1000%.
NU competes against Chicago pro sports, which means TWO baseball teams, the Bears, the Bulls, the Blackhawks, the Chicago Wolves, the Chicago Fire (surprisingly popular), and Chicago Rush arena football (again, surprisingly popular). Throw in Notre Dame/Purdue (both very driveable from Chicago), plus Illinois/Iowa/Wisconsin (ditto), and Minnesota’s challenge is a cakewalk comparatively.
Oh, and Minny’s student population of 51k+ (almost enough to fill the Bank by itself) plus huge local alumni base both dwarf EXPONENTIALLY the number of NU students (7800 students) and alumni base (NU is the second smallest alumni base in Chicago, ahead of only Penn State)….and then there’s the fact that NU is private, and hence doesn’t draw the same “oh, they’re my state school” allegiance as Minny.
(In other words, quit your bellyaching, because you hardly have it that bad….)
by Chadnudj on Apr 21, 2011 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
you guys have it worse, no question
nobody made that argument.
Frankly the people I blame the most for the poor attendance are the students. They simply don’t support the program and it is embarrassing. Most of the stadium will be full and the student section won’t even be half full and we have one of the largest enrollments in the nation.
Yeah, that sucks.
Say what you will about NU, but the student section shows up (frequently upwards of 5k, which is 75% plus of the student body)…..
On the plus side for you...
…your AD and administration have acknowledged the fact that they are marketing their multi-million dollar business in a crowded sports marketplace while possessing subpar facilities and an up and down history of success. Rather than pretend just being the only BCS college team in the market will cut it any more, they’ve gone out and aggressively marketed the program. One day I hope the U will figure things out and do the same.
East Gateway
Always appreciate your indepth posts GoAU. You should take the debate of the longterm plans around the stadium to the TheDaily or FBT. Plenty to learn and debate about surrounding our Stadium with a bunch of research facilities.
Goodstuff.
by InflectionPoint on Apr 21, 2011 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions
New coach bump...
Here are the first year win-total bumps for new coaches at BCS programs hired after the previous coach was fired for performance reasons:
+6: Tedford (Cal), Nutt (Ole Miss)
+5: Sarkisian (UW), Willingham (ND >>> fired), Friedgen (Maryland >>> fired)
+4: Pelini (Neb), Grobe (WF), JLSmith (MSU >>> fired)
+3: Harbaugh (Stan), Dantonio (MSU), Chizik (Aub), Strong (Ville), Erickson (ASU), Cutcliffe (Duke), Weis (ND >>> fired)
+2: Meyer (UF), Kelly (ND), Kiffin (Tenn), Johnson (GT), O’Brien (NCSt), Swinney (Clem), Bunting (UNC >>> fired)
+1: Saban (Bama), Carroll (USC), Miles (OkSt), Pinkel (Mizz), Marrone (Cuse), Snyder2 (KSU), Davis (UNC), Stoops (Zona), Hoeppner (IU), Mullen (MsSt), Briles (Bay), London (UVA), Willingham (UW >>> fired), Croom (MsSt >>> fired)
0: Richt (UGA)
-1: Zook (Ill… hot seat), Chizik (ISU… left), Mangino (KU >>> fired for personality), Oregeron (OM >>> fired)
-2: Neuheisel (UCLA… hot seat), Dorrell (UCLA >>> fired), DiNardo (IU >>> fired), Shannon (Miami >>> fired), Franchione (A&M >>> fired)
-3: Sherman (A&M), Wannstedt (Pitt >>> fired)
-5: Brewster (Minn >>> fired), Hawkins (CU >>> fired), Robinson (Cuse >>> fired), Callahan (Neb >>> fired)
A couple thoughts:
- most new coaches, even those who are eventually fired, take a step forward in the win column after taking over for a coached fired for performance reasons.
- a regression in wins in year 1 following a coach who got fired for poor performance is a very bad sign.
by jokewood on Apr 21, 2011 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think an article is warranted, definitely
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Apr 21, 2011 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
does anyone doubt that Kill won't win 4 games?
2-3 in the non-conference and 1-2 in the B1G? I have a really hard time seeing that not happening with a coach like Kill. Will he go bowling? Most likely not. I get the distinct impression that Kill will win the games he should at the very least.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Apr 21, 2011 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, but there are a lot of factors that need to be considered
how different is the offensive/defensive scheme, how many starters/upperclassmen are lost (a coach who is fired for a disappointing senior laden team may really leave the cupboard bare, so to speak), and what does that first year schedule look like, just to name a few.
It’s a great topic, but it shouldn’t be as simple as wins/losses
On separate topic, the more the think about this, the more I wonder if Brewster is Zook, I mean, he could be a good “coach” if he was surrounded by competent assistants.
It never gets to be easy.
Why the fuck doesn't it ever get to be easy?
by chitownhawkeye on Apr 21, 2011 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions
The comparison between coaches succeeding fired coaches
and coaches succeeding those who left for a better job or retired would be interesting also.
I'm not expecting a 1st year bump...
…well, at least not a big one. I think the Gophers win 4 or 5 but are much more competitive and make fewer dumb mistakes. They probably lose one they shouldn’t and win one they shouldn’t. If things fall into place we might see a bowl.
I’d be interested to hear what the Gopher people would think what kind of win ratio against Minnesota’s rivals would be necessary to consider him a success. Is winning the Jug twice in ten years good enough, given the history? Three times for the Axe and Floyd? What’s the bare minimum that a Gopher fan would accept for each of those to consider Kill a success?
Even with the series records
I’d say Gopher Football is back if we passed the average series record of the trophy games… so over 10 years, took 5/10 from the Badgers, 6/10 from Iowa and 3/10 from Michigan.
When we get the Pig, the Jug and the Axe, we'll have one hell of a picnic
High goals....
…frankly, knowing little about the traditions/records of the teams involved, I’d peg success in rivalry games for Minny at:
3 or 4 out of 10 vs. Wisconsin
4 or 5 out of 10 vs. Iowa
2 out of 10 vs. Michigan (if we’re talking pre-Rich Rod Michigan; if they don’t bounce back, I’d up this above 5 out of 10).
Iowa and Wisconsin are a lot better now than their historical averages now though, and seem in position to maintain that level for the immediate future.
Michigan is down, but even their worst team in our lifetimes managed to beat Minnesota (somehow). But 3/10 doesn’t seem too outrageous, even if I think 2/10 is much more likely.
by HawkeyedFrog on Apr 21, 2011 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
HawkeyedFrog
It is essential that the Gophers win the Floyd of Rosedale and Paul Bunyan’s Axe games 50% of the time. Even last year with all the turmoil the Gophers were able to pull off a split in those games.
I believe Michigan is mediocre until proven elite again. Honestly, I believe Hoke has a tougher rebuilding job than Kill in the short term, because his schemes on Offense and Defense are an 180 degree turn from what RichRod was doing. The Big Ten West is extremely deep and until the Wolverines prove they are elite again, I don’t consider the Lil’ Brown Jug Game as more daunting than the Gophers other rivalries.
You don’t consider it more daunting? That’s interesting, as the Gopher fan that I most keep in contact with is incredibly defeatist about the jug. He thinks it’s one of those blocks that even when Minnesota is having a really good season they still find a way to lose to Michigan- see the fourth quarter game. It’s somewhat like Tennessee/Kentucky that way, even when Kentucky has had its best seasons in recent memory they still haven’t been able to get over the big orange hump (even when Tennessee is mired in disappointment).
by HawkeyedFrog on Apr 21, 2011 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions
The Gophers won the jug
in 2006, so it’s not like it’s been forever. But that comment is also a credit to our other rivals, who have been better than Michigan the last couple years (years where Lil’ Brown Jug game hasn’t been played).
I used to feel the same way as your friend about Michigan, but I think it will take Brady Hoke a while to get back the patented Michigan combos of talent and swagger. Personally, I thought if Michigan wanted to win in the short term, it should have made RichRod get an entirely new D/STs staff, and kept him for his top notch Offense. Hoke may bring the Maize and Blue back to glory, but given the dramatic schematic changes I think it will take a full 3 years.
I agree, but Minnesota isn’t in prime position to take advantage of the weakness, since they’re transitioning as well. The next few years of the Michigan/Minnesota game will be key is Kill is going to win the division down the line.
by HawkeyedFrog on Apr 21, 2011 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions
50%
Personally, I think fans will want to keep Floyd or the Axe about 50% of the time. Realistic? Dunno, but that’s what fans will want. Even in a downturn your school’s biggest rival shouldn’t keep the trophy for more than 3 years in a row. That’s when fans really start getting antsy. I’d love to win the Jug more than 2 out of 10 but the historical averages aren’t there.
Good luck.
Even when Wisconsin sucked (the 1980s, especially) we had a solid record against Minny. And back then you were trotting out greats like Darrell Thompson, too.
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by Ricardo Efendi on Apr 21, 2011 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions
6* national championships
The 1936 championship was robbed from Northwestern, who had the same record, the outright conference championship, and beat Minnesota head-to-head.
But that was BEFORE 1995
so clearly this alleged 1936 “season” is just a figment of your imagination.
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
by HoyaGoon on Apr 21, 2011 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
+1
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Apr 25, 2011 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
HELP IS ON THE WAY
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Apr 21, 2011 11:03 AM CDT reply actions
I know...
…I thought Indiana fans were quiet, but the dirth of Minnesota fans commenting here is frankly surprising….
never thought I'd say this
but where’s AhliBowba when you need him?
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
by HoyaGoon on Apr 21, 2011 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Thanks for the love HoyaGoon.
After the debacle that was last season I needed a break from OTE. I took a pilgrimage to the North Shore and asked the Norse gods who fathered our ancestors ‘why have you forsaken your Maroon and Gold’?
Then Thunder struck overhead in a cacophony of sound so extreme I believed the Earth was rending underneath me. Lightning lit up the sky and the vicious North Wind threatened to throw me off the rock face and into the Great Lake below me. Then, just as suddenly as it started—-it stopped. The storm abated, the wind, thunderous a moment ago became eerily still. And as a lone streak of starlight penetrated through the now clearing sky, the still air carried a slight concentrated breeze directly to my ear, from which a voice said, ‘Hubris’
‘What?’ I responded, ’Brew’s Hubris doomed the Gophers?’
‘Yes’ replied the Wind, ‘As did yours’.
’Mine? I gasped incredulously. The Wind, before continuing to speak, formed a block M and then the last words slid past my ears before the Wind God disappeared.
‘You gave lie to the tongue before the change was wrought unto your eyes. Now, wait patiently, and don’t proclaim the victory you seek until you truly see the change—-and only then will it be…A TIME TO KILL’
So OTE-ites. I am done guaranteeing 8 win seasons. I believe Kill can get the job done, but I won’t know until he actually creates a disciplined, smart aggressive football team. This time around I won’t claim Gopher glory in advance.
If a college football fan can't be unreasonably optimistic about the next year
then we’re all in trouble.
FOOTBALL SHAPED LOCKER ROOMS = WINS
HELP IS ON THE WAY
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by SouthBayBuckeye on Apr 22, 2011 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions
THIS IS SPARTA!!
"Lord I pray for the eyes of an eagle, the heart of a lion and the balls of a combat helicopter pilot."
bq. The home game against Nebraska is winnable if the Cornhuskers pull a 2010 and lose the ability to pass.
I think this would be a more legitimate claim if Minnesota did a better job of proving their ability to stop an elite rush attack.
yeah, I would say that it is definitely a stretch to say that the NE game is winnable this year
however, I have to believe MN will be better against the run this year. We should have a very solid group of linebackers and our d-line can’t get worse. Still will be tough to slow down your rushing attack though, no doubt.
GBr9
Honestly, I think the Nebraska will be tough because the blackshirts have been a very solid group recently under Bo. However, the Gophers should have a puncher’s chance for the upset in this one. There are several reasons for this.
First, Taylor Martinez couldn’t stay healthy last year, and Nebraska’s fortunes rose and fell with his health. Nebraska’s attack struggled after he got hurt
But in that eighth game, a 31-17 win against Missouri, Martinez severely sprained his right ankle. The quarterback on Monday said he re-injured the ankle “five or six times” the rest of the season.
‘“It was tough on me,” Martinez said. "I couldn’t really run and do what I wanted to do."
Martinez was never the same — 79 rush yards, no touchdowns in the final five games - and neither was the offense. Nebraska scored 20 points or fewer in four of its final five games, losing three times.’ -—http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/category/_/name/nebraska-cornhuskers/count/31
I also believe that Nebraska is gonna have a harder time keeping him healthy this year than last year simply by virtue of moving to the Big Ten. Aside from the elite conference teams, Big 12 squads aren’t as good or as physical defensively. Big Ten LBs also tend to be bigger and more adept at stopping the run than their Big 12 counterparts. Remember, Nebraska is gonna be coming off of a 2 week stint against Wisconsin and then league overlord Ohio State. You better believe the Huskers are gonna be banged up coming into Minnesota. I would be surprised if Martinez makes it through the Buckeyes annual league best D without sustaining injury.
If Martinez is limited, Nebraska’s passing attack disappears, and the rushing attack becomes much less versatile. The strength of Minnesota’s defense will be its interior. The D tackles are solid and this now seasoned crew of LBs is the teams deepest, most athletic and experienced unit.
Finally, it’s a classic trap game. Think about it—last year 3 teams split the Big 10 title. Nebraska plays Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Michigan State in that order. You really think Nebraska isn’t gonna be looking forward to Sparty?
Not if they're 1-1, or 0-2 in B1G play, they won't be.
You make good points, though, however Nebraska’s depth at the QB and RB position has become much stronger this year versus last year.
I like how you put it, “the Gophers should have a puncher’s chance for the upset in this one,” and I think that has less to do with Minnesota’s defensive “strengths” as it does with their improvements on the coaching staff. A well-coached team, regardless of talent level, can play with a Nebraska and beat them (look at what Iowa State did to NU in 2009 and 2010). It should be fun, I will be sitting in my Gopher season ticket seats, wearing my Husker red. GBR!
I am honestly weirdly fascinated
with Jerry Kill and the Golden Gophers. Maybe it’s the new coach thing, but the back of my head is telling me that one day very soon the gophers may just be back in the hunt for the championship. Maybe I’m going crazy, but something is definitely happening over there.
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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on Apr 21, 2011 11:38 PM CDT reply actions
I'm just impressed Kill won over the Reusse's of the local media world
They have all been such downers and proclaimers of doom that the first time I read a positive article my jaw hit the floor.
No one is getting Rubio's rights unless they pry them from our cold dead fingers.
by TheEvilProfessor on Apr 24, 2011 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
If Kill is as good as we hope he is, Minnesota's in a good division to compete fast
Who’s the overlord of the west?
UM is rebuilding. They may return to glory, or they may not
MSU is still MSU. They still managed a “Sparty NO!!!” Moment against ‘Bama
NU? I just can’t see them as a division overlord.
Iowa? Better then U of M for now, but given competent coaching, they’ve got no huge advantage
UNL (that’s right new guys, you’re UNL) Can’t play offense in the Big12. That’s not a recipe to tear through the BigTen.
Minnesota with Brew is the punching bag of that group. With Kill? It’s an open question, but I think he’ll give us the horses to play with everyone in the division.

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