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2011 Bowl Projections - Post Spring Practice

All the camo in the world can't hide Ohio State from the NCAA. The question is: how will that effect their 2011 season?  (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

My hope was that after the Spring practices ended, things would seem more clear in the Big Ten. I think that there is only one thing that is clear: there is no national champion coming from our ranks this season. As I look through the league, I see a deep, balanced league. That should be great for exciting games between seven and eight win teams. It should also mean that we won't see a team run through conference play undefeated.

To be honest, picking the conference champion is a question of likelihoods. In other words, how shocked would you be if Team X won the Big Ten? I break it down this way:

Best Guesses: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Nebraska

I Could See That: Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Northwestern

Who Saw That Coming?: Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota

If you're following my logic, I think that 8 of the 12 teams have the possibility of winning the league. Fans of those eight teams are probably looking at that list and thinking, "well, if he develops, and if we can plug that hole, and if we catch a break..." Not since 2002 has the league been more ripe for the taking. Who will take it? Maybe I'll have a better idea in August...

First, let's remember that there are rules:

  1. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
  2. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Fiesta Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Orange Bowl.
  3. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will NOT be required to take a non-automatic qualifier.  This was only required of the Rose Bowl the first time it occurred over the current four-year contract. 
  4. The Insight Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Gator Bowl this year.  It will rotate the other way next year.

 Got it?  Good.  Let's get on to the projections.

Star-divide

2011bcs-logo_medium Oklahoma_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Alabama_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Oklahoma gets an easier road, with no threat of Nebraska in a Big 12 Championship Game. They have a stacked lineup returning and a great chance to run the table to get to New Orleans. 

Alabama has a rougher go, and while the losses of Ingram, Jones and McElroy may weaken the offense, the defense is going to be stronger and the offensive replacements more than adequate. If you don't already, expect to know a lot about Trent Richardson by this time next year.

2011rosebowl-vizio-logo_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Oregon_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Wisconsin again? I think so. I believe that they are the best situated to benefit from Ohio State's rule breaking and Penn State's lack of a quarterback.

I don't think that Oregon can run the schedule again, but I don't see anyone better than them in the Pac-10. Ducks would have some pressure in this one, after losing two straight years in BCS games.

Fiestabowl_2006_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_old5_medium_medium Notre_dame_medium_medium_medium And the Fiesta Bowl gets this year's embarrassment of riches. It selects 10-2 Texas to replace Oklahoma. Then, with the first at large pick, it grabs 10-2 Notre Dame. While a huge game for the BCS, the order of selection means that the Big Ten will be without two BCS selections for the first time since 2004.    
Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Lsu_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Boise_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

The SEC balance of power still lies in the West, and runner-up LSU gets chosen to replace Alabama and stay in Louisiana to face Boise State.

Boise State makes some new history in 2011. They become the first non-AQ team to make a BCS game with a loss. At 11-1, they win the Mountain West and get selected by Sugar with the second to last pick.

Orange_medium_medium_medium_medium Florida_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Louisville_medium

It's an annual tradition. Predict the Seminoles to win the ACC and then watch them lose. They have the best squad returning, and should win the league. That said, watch out for Miami. If they gain some confidence with a win over a depleted Buckeye squad, they too have the players to win the ACC this year.

The Big East Champ, for the fourth consecutive year, is the last selection of the BCS Bowls. Louisville? Maybe...

2011capitalonebowl-logo_medium Nebraska_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Georgia_medium_medium_medium I think Nebraska wins the Legends Division, but loses in the Championship Game. I'm guessing that makes them 10-3, and a perfect match for 10-3 SEC East Champion Georgia.
2011outbackbowl-logo_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Florida_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

This game will sound a lot better than it will be. I'll pencil Ohio State in at 9-3 and Florida at 8-4. Not bad, but not what is was when they met five years ago.

EDIT: For the record, this is assuming that there is no bowl ban in place for Ohio State for the 2011 season. Should there be a ban, move every Big Ten team below them up one bowl, and say goodbye to the Bronx.

2011insightbowl-logo_medium Michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_tech_old9_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

I'm mentally coming around on this Michigan team. 8 wins and second place in the Legends? I think so.

This is the fifth team from the Big 12, so we're looking at this being a 7 or 8 win team. The days of this being a Top 15 team from the league ended with Mizzou last year.

Progressive-gator-bowl_medium Penn_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Auburn_medium

If you have two quarterbacks, you have none. Penn State is good enough elsewhere to get to 7 or 8 wins, but I'm no longer thinking that this is a title caliber team.

Auburn is going to have a big fall. I can't think of any other champion that was so dependent upon two players - one on each side of the ball. Now that they're gone, this should be a mid-pack SEC team again.

Meineke-cc-bowl-2011_medium

Iowa_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Kansas_st_medium

Iowa has another 7-5 season, but this time it's not under-achieving. It's also not able to move up any higher on the bowl pecking order.

If the Big 12 is to fill this slot, it will need K-State, Kansas, Baylor, or Iowa State to get to six wins - and do it against a 9 game conference slate. That's a tall order (considering that all 4 of them look to have at least one loss in the non-con). I'll take K-State, but don't be surprised if this is an at large team.  

Ticketcitybowl-2010-logo_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Southern_methodist_medium_medium_medium_medium

I think that the losses on defense result in Sparty taking a step or two back this season. 7 wins sounds right.

The Ticket City Bowl will pit the Big Ten against C-USA in odd numbered years. It also has to look to C-USA to replace the B12 if the league can't fill the slot. With the smaller membership, you can expect to see B1G v. C-USA here for the next three years.    

2011littlecaesars-logo_medium Purdue_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Miami_oh_medium I'm buying Purdue as a bowl team. Sixth win comes against Indiana, but I think that they have the schedule and team to get this far. Detroit is just happy that expansion means that the Big Ten should be sending a team to the Motor City every year to face a MAC squad.
Pinstripebowl_2010_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Northwestern_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Connecticut_medium_medium_medium

The more that I've thought about this, the more I'm bailing on the Wildcats. Shaky defense. Quarterback coming back from injury. Quarterback injury may limit his mobility, which was his biggest asset and team's strength. 6 wins. Maybe. As the 9th Big Ten team with only 1 BCS bid, that puts them on the market. I suspect that they'll be an attractive choice, and I can see them filling a Big 12 slot in the Bronx.

Connecticut has enough coming back to contend for the Big East title again, but my guess is that they don't get all of the breaks this year.

Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Indiana_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Minnesota_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Illinois_medium_medium_medium_medium

When you can't get to six wins, you know that you'll spend the bowl season On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (sponsored by Ro*Tel).

Minnesota will be improved, as they won't have Tim Brewster. That said, they start the season against USC and have a pretty tough slate in the conference. 5 wins seems like their cap.

Indiana looks destined for another losing season. The question is: will they lose a road game versus a non-AQ teams (Ball State or North Texas), a home game against Virginia, or a combination of both. Sadly, I'm on the latter.

Would it shock me to see Illinois have a season similar to last year? No. Is it more likely that they struggle to replace the three studs who went pro early and miss a bowl? I think so. Could this be the end of the Zook era? Hmmm...

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Assorted B1G Bowl Chatter

Dec 2011 by Bama Hawkeye - 68 comments

Comments

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Well, the OSU BCS run has to end sometime

and I am resigning myself to the fact that it will probably be this season. You don’t see any post-season penalties when the NCAA wields it’s banhammer?

But they’re so kicking the hell out of Michigan.

"Lord I pray for the eyes of an eagle, the heart of a lion and the balls of a combat helicopter pilot."

The Daily Norseman
Off Tackle Empire
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by Ted Glover on May 11, 2011 8:18 AM CDT reply actions  

hang on hang on!!

Wisconsin with a new QB-Rose Bowl.
Michigan worst defense last year-better bowl game this year.
PSU, Iowa, OSU-are all jumping MSU’s chances..
wow!!
This looks like a thought from a drunken rage at 2:00am. I hope everyone remembers this page after thanksgiving!!

by spartynation on May 11, 2011 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

How is Michigan’s defense worst than last year?

by EdCarey on May 11, 2011 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

i’m… pretty sure that’s not what he said.

by pfoley on May 11, 2011 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Do you speak his language?

So what if I tailgate to the NPR jazz station?

by hkobb7 on May 23, 2011 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

You guys are reading it wrong

He’s saying his own post looks like a thought from a drunken rage at 2:00am.

You can’t spell “East Lansing” without going 0-1.

Before you respond, let me remind you: Brian Cook called me smug, which makes me the Obama of smugness. I'm basically Smugbama.

by Patrick Vint on May 11, 2011 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not sure

If there are post-season penalties, they’ll likely be handed down by October. I would expect that they would be for 2011.

"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint

http://www.offtackleempire.com

by Bama Hawkeye on May 11, 2011 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

Wow, Bama...

No love for Northwestern? 6 wins?

Shaky defense — I’ll give you this. But the team has better depth this year, and really (as noted last week) the defense was BETTER thru 10 games in 2010 than it was in 2009, when the Cats ended up winning 8 games. I’m not saying they’ll be a top 20 defense next season, but certainly I could see them going from 100th in total defense in 2010 to, say, 60th in 2011 — respectable, albeit not dominant.

QB — Persa may lose some mobility (although reports that he’s WAY ahead of schedule on his rehab suggest he’ll come back as strong as ever)…but that might actually HELP him. On too many plays last year, he didn’t throw the ball away, and instead tried to make something happen with his feet. Occasionally this turned into positive yards for the Cats…more often, it was a sack that made 2nd/3rd and long. The running game improved over the course of last year (up until the Trumpy injury), which should also help.

I suppose a tougher schedule should be some cause for concern (although replacing Purdue and Wisconsin with Nebraska and Michigan may not be, at least this year, the huge leap you might think)….but I’m maybe a bit more optimistic than you (as I probably should be, since I root for the Cats and all…)

by Chadnudj on May 11, 2011 9:14 AM CDT reply actions  

I tend to think in more of a best case/worst case for Northwestern

Worst case, the defense falls apart and Persa never recovers (somewhere around BH’s pick). Best case Persa is better than last year and the defense is no longer in the triple digits (closer to chadnudj). Also, Northwestern only has one scary game at Nebraska and the Huskers might be beat up by the “Welcome to the Big Ten” hazing scheduling. Other than that, there’s a number of potentially tough games (@Iowa, Penn State, MSU, @Michigan, @BC, @Illinois) but nothing scary. Anything 6-10 wins wouldn’t surprise me that much.

by nuftw on May 11, 2011 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

"Worst case, the defense falls apart and Persa never recovers"

If that happens, Northwestern doesn’t get to 6 wins.

"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint

http://www.offtackleempire.com

by Bama Hawkeye on May 11, 2011 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

Bama Hawkeye has been consistent for the past three years

Northwestern has always been slotted in the lowest B1G eligible bowl. Last year, he was right (and most years he will be, given rule 1). Michigan is always slotted about two wins better than where they end up. Overall, though, his predictions haven’t been too far off. That being said, I think that there are more tools outside of Persa than the rest of the conference realizes (receivers are very deep, Watkins will be better with the additional year and has a cannon, the defensive secondary is much better than anyone realizes, running game can’t possibly be worse), and I’m with nuftw that 6 wins is a minimum. The schedule still includes Eatern Illinois, Rice, Indiana, Minnesota, and Army (albeit much improved last year) and there’s probably one game against Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, or Boston College that is winnable without a 100% Persa. The defense won’t be any worse than they were last year.

by GTom on May 11, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

bama Hawkeye-did u watch the Spring football for all B10 teams?

“I think that the losses on defense result in Sparty taking a step or two back this season. 7 wins sounds right.”

Ok first of all this MSU’s defense will be better than last year. Watch out for Will Gholston, Max Bullough, Trenton Robinson and Johnny Adams in the defense.I think the offensive line is shaky but to put a 11-2 MSU team to win 7 wins is ridiculous.U do realize that Wisconisn comes to East Lansing to play this year?

by spartynation on May 11, 2011 9:42 AM CDT reply actions  

Back 7

Sparty’s back 7 worries me on defense. Maybe the pass rush (from a strong DLine) can get enough pressure to cover for it, but I’m doubting until I see.

As for the schedule, I’ll do a full breakdown in August, but I could see Sparty losing five of

@ND, @OSU, @NEB, @IOWA, vs. WIS, vs. MICH

That’s a pretty brutal schedule (even with tOSU missing Tressel and his Tattoo Six).

"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint

http://www.offtackleempire.com

by Bama Hawkeye on May 11, 2011 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

Let's just remember

that MSU was inches away from 8-4 in the regular season. ND, Purdue, NW…And there was no OSU or Nebraska. So if any team will take a dive, it’ll be Sparty.

But Michigan over Michigan State? That’s a tough projection.

Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Graham Filler on May 11, 2011 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

And it’s not like they lost any close games either. They were totally shellacked by Iowa and Alabama’s third-stringers.

I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse

by Alex Cook on May 11, 2011 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

Getting destroyed by Alabama

is better than getting destroyed by Mississippi State.

It’s understandable that you’re quite vocal about MSU; like I said here: http://www.offtackleempire.com/2011/5/9/2161140/b1g-2011-michigan-cocktail-party-preview#66903256

Good luck to UM on backing up their talk… it hasn’t happened for some time now.

by Stuka on May 11, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

IMO:

You’re overestimating Michigan. Personally, I think a third or fourth place finish in the Legends is probable. As for MSU, I have a hard time disagreeing. They won a ton of close games, and it’s bound to regress to the mean this year. It doesn’t help that their schedule is much harder than it was last year…

I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse

by Alex Cook on May 11, 2011 10:13 AM CDT reply actions  

I Could See That: Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Northwestern

Who Saw That Coming?: Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan

/fixed

Ever Grateful. Ever True.

by PurdueMatt on May 11, 2011 10:20 AM CDT reply actions  

Shouldn't you be over at Hustle Belt?

Before you respond, let me remind you: Brian Cook called me smug, which makes me the Obama of smugness. I'm basically Smugbama.

by Patrick Vint on May 11, 2011 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

We've been hearing the "who will replace the RB" question at U of I since Pierre Thomas left.

Rashard was supposed to be good, but no one saw him turning into a first rounder after how he started his college career. Mikel LeShoure had to beat out Jason Ford and Troy Pollard to take over as the starter last season. Scheelhaase improved tremendously as the season went on and is now the established starter. The secondary is fully healthy and looking to be a strength. This isn’t a team that’s going to be sitting the bowl season out.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on May 11, 2011 10:53 AM CDT reply actions  

Except....

….they’re still coached by Zook. And Liuget and Martez Wilson will not be easily replaced on a defense that gave up video game numbers to Michigan….and Illinois is on a perpetual “good one year, bad the next three” cycle. And Scheelhaase’s arm doesn’t scare anybody yet, and sophomore slumps are par-for-the-course in the Big Ten.

Other than that, though, yeah, Illinois will be fine….

by Chadnudj on May 11, 2011 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Coming from a fan of a team with no defense or running game

and a mobile QB coming back from a knee injury. Last year was the only year Tez was able to actually be relied upon. The hardest cog to replace is going to be Liuget. And as for the Zook part, at least he can win a bowl game.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on May 11, 2011 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Misremembered it as a knee injury.

Mea culpa. I’ll just let you go back to pretending that Pat Fitzgerald is the next coming of JoePa and falsely believing and writing that Northwestern was the Wildcats longer than KSU.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on May 11, 2011 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

And while you're patting yourself on the back

the muscles that the Achilles serves as a tendon of originate at the level of the knee.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on May 11, 2011 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wait wait wait...

…so some of the muscles connected to the Achilles originate at the knee thus making it plausible to call a ruptured Achilles a knee injury? Were you humming “Dry Bones” while coming up with that logic? Sheesh…

by GoAUpher on May 11, 2011 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

I've been working with horses lately

it’s been weird getting back to calling a knee a knee.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on May 11, 2011 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’ve been working with horses lately

The urge to make a Champaign-Urbana/downstate Illinois joke is killing me right now….

by Chadnudj on May 11, 2011 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

I'm not in Champaign anymore.

I’m at Kansas St.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on May 11, 2011 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

I figured the context clues of our last conversation were enough to piece that together.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on May 11, 2011 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Schedule

Look at Illinois’ schedule next year. They start with 5 straight home games against Arkansas St., South Dakota St., Arizona St., Western Michigan and Northwestern If they can win 3 of those games, which should be the absolute minimum, all they have to do is win 3 of at Indiana, at Purdue at Minnesota, or home against Michigan.

Even with their losses, they’ll have to try extremely hard not to squeak out 6 wins with that schedule.

As far as Scheelhaase and his arm, consider the fact that statistically he had a better season last year than Blaine Gabbert of Missouri, by pretty much any measure. Some of that is of course do to LeShoure, but he’s also simply better than people give him credit for.

by McMoney on May 11, 2011 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Don't sleep on the Jackrabbits

They were certainly frisky last year against Nebraska.

by Albino Tornado on May 11, 2011 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Minnesota whole-heartedly endorses this sentiment

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on May 11, 2011 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

The Gophers only almost-lost to the Jacks.

They did manage to lose to those lowdown dirty ’Yotes.

/know your old NCC schools or the Gopher gets it!

by Albino Tornado on May 11, 2011 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

How is Michigan’s defense worst than last year?

by EdCarey on May 11, 2011 11:55 AM CDT reply actions  

The comment you were attempting to reply to said that Michigan had the worst defense in the B1G last year.

Not that their defense will be worse this year. That one letter difference is important for proper comprehension.

by The Mexican't on May 11, 2011 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wisconsin? Really?

I think people constantly overplay the running game for the Badgers and they get overrated because of it. Wisconsin has great years like they did in 2010 becuse they have an accurate quarterback and strong receivers who keep the offense on the field on third and long. Their defense was good last year but not great. They win with ball control, but if you stop their offense and keep their defense on the field longer they usually fall apart (see most Wisconsin-Iowa games in the last decade).

Is Budmayr really good enough to do that, how much pressure will their defense be able to handle, and can Wisconsin reload at receiver? I don’t think the Badgers will be bad next year, but let’s be real, unless Brett Bielema manages to overcome precedent in a huge way this is your normal upper middle tier Badger team that isn’t quite good enough to beat anyone with a good defense (which is unfortunate since PSU and OSU seem to be just fine there for the most part).

I will certainly eat my crow if Wisconsin goes to the Rose Bowl, but let’s just say I am not putting it on my grocery list any time soon.

http://victorypolka.blogspot.com/

by KC_HAWKEYE on May 11, 2011 12:43 PM CDT reply actions  

The receiver position at Wisconsin is a little overrated.

Yes, the Badgers lost Isaac Anderson, Kyle Jefferson, and David Gilreath, but how much did they contribute in 2010? Jefferson couldn’t get ANY playing time after 2007. Anderson was ridiculously iffy; he never recorded more than 30 receptions in a season, and he got beat out by Abbrederis. Gilreath is probably the biggest loss, because he handled rushing plays and returns in addition to his receiving (which wasn’t bad, but wasn’t particularly great either).

Nick Toon is the #1 receiver; Abbrederis is likely the #2 or #3 man. There is a huge unknown at the 3rd and 4th receiver positions, though, but since Wisconsin doesn’t run 4 to 5 wide sets (at least, not that often), receiver is not as big a concern as it would be on a team such as Purdue. Wisconsin usually has a good group of TEs, so I’m not terribly worried about that position. The Badgers use TEs in the passing game far more than they do WRs (considering how Lance Kendricks had more catches than ANY of our wide receivers last year, and Travis Beckum’s ridiculous 2007 season).

It’s safe to say that this year’s team is going to be based on the running game and the defense.

Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 11, 2011 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think it would be an issue if they weren't starting a new QB

But since they are I think it makes the big problem that much better. Toon needs to step up this year to replce Gilreath but that is uncertain.

Also I left Kendricks out on purpose. Whoever Wisco trots out at TE will be just fine. I don’t see Wisconsin becomming terrible either, I just think Rose Bowl may be a bit of a stretch. Personally, anywhere between Gator and Capital One Bowl seems the most likely.

http://victorypolka.blogspot.com/

by KC_HAWKEYE on May 11, 2011 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

To be honest

I think this particular team ends up in the Outback Bowl. There are definitely holes on the roster, particularly on offense (QB, WR2/3/4/5). If the Badgers can find a good QB (and I’ve got significant doubts about Budmayr), they could well go a long way in the conference.

Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 11, 2011 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl again?

It’s possible…unlikely, but possible.

If anything, this year is a 2005 redux for Wisconsin. Breaking in a new QB, whoever it is, and new receivers? Could be tough. VERY tough.

But at least we won’t be starting Allan ****ing Evridge at QB.

Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 11, 2011 12:53 PM CDT reply actions  

How about

Russell Wilson as your Badger QB?

"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint

http://www.offtackleempire.com

by Bama Hawkeye on May 11, 2011 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'd take him.

Seriously. He really didn’t have a running game or a good receiver at NC State, and now he could walk on to a situation where he has a pretty good but iffy WR (Toon), a young WR (Abbrederis) and a solid set of TEs (Byne, Pedersen). Along with an actual running game (BHGP’s beloved Brady Ewing at FB, Montee Ball and James White at HB)

Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 11, 2011 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh, and don't discount Stanford.

Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog

by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 11, 2011 1:04 PM CDT reply actions  

Lost too many on the lines

I choose to discount Stanford.

"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint

http://www.offtackleempire.com

by Bama Hawkeye on May 11, 2011 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly

Something tells me Luck is really going to regret his decision not to come out early.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on May 11, 2011 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why?

He’s not poor (his dad’s the AD for WVU), college is fun, and even #1 overall draft picks wash out half the time.

by drothgery on May 11, 2011 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Because it will end up costing him a lot of money

His family is well-off, but not so well-off that the signing bonus from being the #1 draft pick isn’t more than they’ll ever see (though it remains to be seen how it works out in the current environment). Luck’s stock will fall, that’s what inevitably happens, and it may be better long-term for his career, but it will certainly cost a LOT of money in the short-term

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on May 11, 2011 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Except...

…the NFL Lockout casts a cloud over whether he’ll earn more leaving. If the season is lost, he’s arguably better off being in college and playing, rather than losing a season of playing football to labor uncertainty.

(But your point is right, assuming an NFL season does get played, of course…)

by Chadnudj on May 11, 2011 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Might be in for some bad Luck UP TOP

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by Patrick Vint on May 11, 2011 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

tOSU in the Outback Bowl is laughable...

Until the banhammer drops (which it probably will) tOSU is still the deepest team in conference. Now, I’m not saying they dont drop a game here or there, but the first 5 games are laughers (sans MSU) and we get our stars back healthy and ready to light it up week 6. @ Neb is the only game that has anyone worried…

/steps off soapbox

If we dont get the 3 and out, well, when is the turnover coming?

by BuckeyeSki on May 11, 2011 2:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Jacory Harris laughs at you calling Miami a laugher...

…and then throws 6 interceptions.

Heute, Ich bin ein Kreuzschlüssel.

by Spartan D on May 11, 2011 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Is JaFoury Harris

even the starting QB anymore? I hope so, because him being under center increases our chances to win by AT LEAST 75%

If we dont get the 3 and out, well, when is the turnover coming?

by BuckeyeSki on May 11, 2011 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

You'd think

that a decade of struggles with the Badgers would cause that game to be a worry as well.

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by Bama Hawkeye on May 11, 2011 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Normally yes

but everyone will be back by then and the game is at home. Still gonna be close, but nowhere near as worried this year as I was this time last year. I think you see a huge dropoff on the D-Line as well at Wiscy, with no JJ up front.

If we dont get the 3 and out, well, when is the turnover coming?

by BuckeyeSki on May 11, 2011 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well, you didn't see Schofield coming in 2009

and he utterly abused Terrelle Pryor and company.

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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 11, 2011 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

/Beamer Ball'd

If we dont get the 3 and out, well, when is the turnover coming?

by BuckeyeSki on May 11, 2011 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

On MSU...

I think the Spartans will have a better team in 2011 than in 2010, but will probably have a worse record.
The number of tight wins from last year will probably revert to the mean, and the schedule is much tougher. I put the over/under and 7.5, and my guess is 8 wins – 9 with some good breaks.
There is no chance in hell, however, that we lose to UM or they finish ahead of us.

Heute, Ich bin ein Kreuzschlüssel.

by Spartan D on May 11, 2011 2:41 PM CDT reply actions  

Although I agree that Iowa could finish 7-5, I'm curious to know which games most people are expecting the Hawkeyes to lose.

During a cursory glance of the schedule last week I caught myself predicting another 9-0 start. Clearly I’m nothing more than a giant Hawkeye homer, and although it’s unlikely, I still believe it’s possible. What are the non-Hawkeye homers seeing on the schedule?

by The Mexican't on May 11, 2011 3:01 PM CDT reply actions  

I'd say...

…Pitt, Penn State, Northwestern and Michigan won’t be easy. Not saying Iowa won’t win any/some/all of them….but none are complete pushovers, and in none is the possibility of an Iowa loss out of the question.

by Chadnudj on May 11, 2011 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Fair.

After telling myself that another 9-0 start is crazy I had the teams from PA and Northwestern as potential losses. I still think it’ll be another year before Hoke turns Michigan around, though.

by The Mexican't on May 11, 2011 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Plus we get Michigan at home

ISU might be tougher than Pitt, for no other reason than the fact that we play them in Ames while Pitt has to come to Kinnick, and has plenty of its own uncertainties. In conference, PSU, jNW and MSU are toss-ups while the rest, I would think, we should be (slight) favorites in.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on May 11, 2011 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

WOW

I can’t believe I completely forgot about that one. Yeah, mark that one down as a probable loss.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on May 11, 2011 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

I get heckled

and deservedly so, for paying too much attention to history.

That said, can you name the last time that Iowa won three straight over Michigan?
Pitt is good enough to win. Penn State is better than last year, and Iowa is worse. Northwestern…sigh.

It’s not that Iowa can’t win those games individually, it’s just that it’s asking a lot to expect this team to win them all collectively.

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by Bama Hawkeye on May 11, 2011 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

To be fair

it’s not that hard to improve from a 7-6 campaign, especially when you have the talent that Penn State does.

They need to find some semblance of an offense, and a defense. Last year’s unit lost a lot (Bowman, Lee, Hull, and Jared Odrick), but I don’t think anyone expected it to be what it was (which was mediocre, finishing 49th in FBS in points per game and 74th in rushing yards per game).

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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 11, 2011 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

They've been hard hit by injuries this spring

I think PSU will be much improved and really feared that game for Iowa this season. I’m still apprehensive about it but the QB situation combined with the injuries they’ve suffered have ameroliated that somewhat.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on May 11, 2011 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Penn State has had a top 15 defense in the country every year since 2004… until last year. I think the defense is one DE away from being as good as any other in the conference.

I will be very surprised if they aren’t able to get back into the top 15 in 2011.

On offense, WR’s improve, RB’s improve, OL is a question mark. Regardless of which QB starts/plays, he’s the same guy as last year but with game experience and an offseason as the #1 dude under his belt.

I don’t see how you can predict them to be anything but significantly better next season.

by Paterno Ave on May 11, 2011 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know about "significantly" better

Or, at least, I think it’s far from certain. I think Redd will be better as the RB, but the offensive line problems, coupled with that of the d-line are GIANT RED FLAGS that you skirt by rather quickly. Are they insurmountable? No. And I won’t be surprised if PSU finds a way to win 10 games or so. But it won’t blow my mind if they only get 6-7 either.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on May 11, 2011 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

The truly astonishing thing is

that Evan Royster somehow managed 1000+ yards in 2010 behind that offensive line royal mess formerly known as an offensive line.

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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 11, 2011 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Um, never

Iowa has never won three straight over Michigan.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on May 11, 2011 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Bingo

"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint

http://www.offtackleempire.com

by Bama Hawkeye on May 11, 2011 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hmmm...

Northwestern is the most likely loss. Happens. Every. Single. Season.

Pitt could be a tough out; Iowa should probably beat Penn State (which badly needs to find some semblance of a functional defense and offense), Iowa State, and Indiana (which loses its starting QB and two of its three leading receivers in Doss and Turner). Minnesota is a complete tossup, as are Purdue and Michigan. What will those schools be like this year? I don’t have a clue.

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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 11, 2011 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

PSU a probable win?

I view the Iowa-PSU game as a toss up. If Penn State settles on the right QB it could be like the 2007 game-a relatively easy win. That being said you are wrong about Purdue and Minnesota; I don’t see either team improving much this year. Iowa should win both of those games. Michigan, on the other hand, is totally unpredictable. There could be a slight regression to 5 or 6 wins or a marked improvement to 8 or 9. We should know by 11:30 PM on Septemeber 10th which way the Wolverines are probably headed.

by nits4ever on May 14, 2011 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

The only way this year's game could possibly resembler 2007's

is if JC6 somehow gets eligbility restored and comes back to QB Iowa.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on May 16, 2011 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

I've been sticking with 8-4/9-3 for a while.

Split with PSU and jNW.
Split with Mich and MSU.
Lose to the Red Menace.
Maybe split with Pitt and ISU.

If that happens, it’s not THAT hard to find one more loss. Maybe Iowa loses to BOTH PSU and jNW or BOTH Michigan and Michigan State. Or maybe the Ol’ Killster gets the Gophers to stage another upset and keep Floyd for another year.

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by RossWB on May 11, 2011 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know.

I like your 9-3 projection. I just refuse to discount Iowa, regardless of their lineup, because of how good Ferentz is at putting together a team that competes. I’m fully expecting a loss (and a few batteries to be thrown at me) when we make the trip to Kinnick. Plus, I mean, Norm Parker can’t blitz nearly as much as he did last year against the ’Cats, can he?

I see a split with UM and MSU, a loss to Neb, and room for a head-scratcher somewhere (assuming you scratch your head at PSU/NU/Pitt) to leave a 9-3 tally.

by MNWildcat on May 11, 2011 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

Actually, Norm wasn't coaching last year

at least, not during the game in Evanston. We might blitz more (and be forced to do so) this year, the difference will be the looks. Something that disappeared entirely from Iowa’s defensive playbook when Norm was out was the zone blitz. In 2009, Klug in particular had been very effective dropping off into near-in coverage while a LB or corner was brought in on the blitz. Neither Wilson or Paker (Phil, not Norm) really had the balls to go for more “exotic” plays last year and, coupled with the LB decimation we suffered, tended towards very safe, vanilla defenses, the type of which jNW’s offense is designed to take advantage of.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on May 11, 2011 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

My mistake on Norm

I thought I remembered Hawkeye fans bitching about him after the game last year. Maybe I was mixing that up with a different game. Mea culpa.

That said, it’ll be interesting to see the new looks you bring next year.

by MNWildcat on May 11, 2011 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

It is likely that Iowa fans

were bitching because we did not blitz enough, like they always do. Iowa doesn’t blitz much… we have one of the lowest rates of blitzing in the NCAA. Teams (like jNW) that run one-step drops all day tend to have considerable success against our defense, since we are content to give up 5-7 yards a pass on the assumption that those pass plays won’t go for more than that and will only be completed 50% of the time, and hope to apply pressure with down linemen.

Brunettes not fighter jets

by rockyh on May 16, 2011 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

9-3

If Iowa goes 9-3 after losing its QB and most of its best defenders Hawkeye fans should be ecstatic.

by nits4ever on May 14, 2011 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

I agree.

I think the more rational Iowa fans are expecting 7 to 8 wins. 9 wins will be a great regular season.

by The Mexican't on May 16, 2011 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

Pitt

has a new head coach so it is tough to get a read on them.

by nits4ever on May 14, 2011 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Iowa could get 10 wins and go to a pretty good bowl

or they could get 4 wins and miss bowl season entirely. its really hard to tell because we have a new QB, RB(kinda), WRs(mostly), D-Line (mostly), Linebackers (maybe) , and defensive backs (Mostly)…………..solid O-line though.

Next year is a test year for Iowa really, im not getting my expectations up

by justsomehawkeyefan on May 13, 2011 12:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

Deserves a rec

Hope springs eternal… nobody ever sees that loss to Purdue coming (and I’m just as guilty as anyone else).

by GTom on May 11, 2011 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

I considered Bama generous

for (a) assuming we were going to make a bowl game, and
(b) not putting in any pictures of Wizgerald taking a bite out of a hairy ass.

by MNWildcat on May 11, 2011 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Look,

unless you’re a Michigan fan, the argument that unit/position X “has” to be better next season is invalid. Sure, your defense may have been bad, and if you were near the triple-digits in rankings, then most likely, there is bound to be some improvement, but that improvement is only probable, not definitive. Only Michigan can say, with reason, that there is NO POSSIBLE WAY that the defense could be any worse. because, statistically, it couldn’t.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on May 11, 2011 8:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah.

I get that hope springs eternal in the spring — in more carefree moments I envision Coker running wild, the Vandy that staged a late comeback to tie OSU in ’09 be the one who shows up all year, the defensive line being a pleasant surprise, the speedy linebackers helping the defense actually defend the spread effectively, and the safeties being not-awful. All of that happens and Iowa stages a magical run to the B1G Championship Game at 10-2 or 11-1. But is that likely? Uh, no. Not at all.

There’s only been one team in the B1G over the last decade who’s been able to consistently reload at an elite level — and they’re dealing with multiple suspensions and a new scandal every month. So it’s more than reasonable to have some doubt about them, I’d say.

Everyone else has at least 1-2 giant question marks surrounding their team. And everyone else is likely to have some units that develop into very happy surprises and some that are nasty disappointments. There’s a chance some team might have a horseshoe up their ass — like MSU last year or Iowa in 09 — but that’s not a given and it’s hard to know who that might be in advance. I think there’s also a chance that this year’s Big Ten is Pete Rozelle’s wet dream and it’s just parity-riffic and there’s a ton of teams finishing between 6-6 and 9-3.and no real standout elite teams. I think we could see some very close, exciting division races with a lot of exciting, high-scoring football games (I think defense is going to suck this year in the Big Ten).

"I want to be a cowboy. I don't want to be a panda. Pandas are boring, stupid and boring. Bad panda!"

by RossWB on May 11, 2011 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

True

Michigan is probable going to be better on D, and probably a little worse on offense. I think 7 wins is the benchmark for Hoke’s first season. I could be severely underestimating how he has and will continue to develop the team, considering there are 20 returning starters (I know half of them were on the worst D in the B1G) who have some real talent. Or they could just bite it and go under .500. The offense will be statistically worse, but if you go back and look at the red-zone stats for Michigan last year…well they were horrible. With a more ‘Big Ten’ friendly philosophy on offense, I think that will improve…maybe. It’ll be an exciting season that is for sure.

by noise115 on May 12, 2011 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

The red zone stats were horrible because no one could kick a football through the uprights

It wasn’t the offense’s fault, necessarily. The offense shouldn’t regress, but I think it will.

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by Alex Cook on May 12, 2011 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

Like the picks

Start with the sensible: Only one to the BCS, Indiana and Minnesota to the Rotel.

Then, accepting broad parity in the middle, make some controversial but nonetheless plausible calls. Faith in UM and PSU? None in MSU or NU? Hey, you can’t look like a genius if you aren’t willing to look like a fool.

I disagree with the placement of UM, PSU, MSU, and NU. But it’s all reasonable enough to look like genius…or foolishness…come December.

by njd on May 11, 2011 11:46 PM CDT reply actions  

Interesting you have

Louisville winning the Big East.

Is TCU going to be bad this year? Can’t remember off the top of my head if they are joining this year or not

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by Ian_InsideTheShoe on May 12, 2011 5:44 AM CDT reply actions  

TCU is still in the MW this year

thus giving Boise their one and only loss.

In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.

by Pariahwulfen on May 12, 2011 7:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

Actually

Now that TCU-Boise has been moved to the Blue turf, I think the Broncos win that one. I think Boise slips up in the Georgia Dome to start the season.

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by Bama Hawkeye on May 12, 2011 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

Fingers Crossed

I would LOVE to not have to hear about the fighting spuds right off the bat this season

If we dont get the 3 and out, well, when is the turnover coming?

by BuckeyeSki on May 12, 2011 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

Mostly due to relative coaching stability and not sucking last year, I think SU-Louisville will determine the Big East champion. The ‘ville has more talent, but it’s guys who have never played before (many of them freshmen), so my Orange-colored glasses say SU wins it. However, if the Stew/Holgo team-up somehow isn’t disruptive, WVU is always the safe bet in the post-raid Big East (they won’t be worse than tied for 2nd; they never have been).

by drothgery on May 12, 2011 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

I got my CARDS going 8-4 but I do get this feeling it could be a special year. Last time we played the Noles they were ranked #4 and we beat them in a total monsoon. They were not the same for many seasons after that. We got to beat UK, WVU and UC this year!

by cards house on May 12, 2011 10:10 PM CDT reply actions  

Notre Dame 10-2?

Is this 20 years ago?

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by babaoreally on May 13, 2011 12:44 AM CDT reply actions  

Or early Weis?

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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 14, 2011 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

True enough,

but I doubt there were a lot of people picking them to go 9-2 in Weis’ first year. I just don’t see them making a jump from 5 losses to only 2; they would have to win all of the games that they are favored in, and they haven’t done that in a while.

Since this is a Big Ten site, being optimistic about ND being good just doesn’t seem right. We should be piling on ND as much as we can and enjoying their relative mediocrity.

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by babaoreally on May 15, 2011 11:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Can they lose to Purdue sometime soon?

Or is that even possible?

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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 18, 2011 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Insight Bowl

If there is a sense this is the end of Paterno’s career the Insight Bowl would choose PSU over Michigan. It would be fitting as Paterno’s greatest victory was on January 2, 1987 at Sun Devil Stadium.

by nits4ever on May 14, 2011 4:25 PM CDT reply actions  

BCS

I still see 2 BCS teams from the Big Ten. If the two teams in the Championship Game are both 11-1 (a distinct possibilty) the loser will get an at large BCS bid.

by nits4ever on May 14, 2011 4:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Purdue's Bowl Chances

Will hinge on how they do in the ever-compelling road game vs the San Francisco treat in Texas – Rice.

Then again, this may be the year that Boiler fans witness the improbabl,e finishing a stunning 2nd in the Lame Name Division, which gives Purdue fans the nightmare scenario of Danny Hope with a new 4-year contract.

Ohhhh, the humanity.

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by BoilerMacR on May 15, 2011 9:10 PM CDT reply actions  

Texas 10-2?

Is this 2 years ago?

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by babaoreally on May 15, 2011 11:58 PM CDT reply actions  

I find teams with new head coaches to be very volatile

so I don’t think anyone should put too much stock in Michigan or Ohio State for next year.

I also find that teams with new QBs often struggle when you least expect it. So I wouldn’t put too much stock in Iowa or Wisconsin for that reason. Finally, I think Nebraska is going to be more than a little shocked by the style of play in the B1G and underachieve.

"I wish you luck with a capital 'F'" - The Real Elvis.

by StoopsMyAss on May 16, 2011 12:44 AM CDT reply actions  

RE: First year quarterbacks

I don’t foresee it being a problem at Iowa. If Vandenberg is a liability, our coaching staff will scheme to limit that risk (see Chandler, Nathan) and if he’s a stud, they’ll cut him loose (see Tate, Drew). My gut tells me that he’s the latter, and we’re in for a fun season with an experienced OL, one of the better WR duos in the B1G, and the truck that is Marcus Coker. I’m more worried about our defense (esp. the secondary), and the injury bug (Iowa has the talent to go on a run this year, but not the depth if that talent should get dinged up).

Brunettes not fighter jets

by rockyh on May 16, 2011 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

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