2011 Closing Arguments - Northwestern

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 10:21 AM CDT in Northwestern

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"Life is so very fragile. We are all vulnerable. And we will all at some point in our lives fall. We will all fall. We must carry this in our hearts. That what we have is special."

"Don't look at him, don't even think about him. You understand me? Stay inside yourself, and think about the next series."

"Nothing's gonna crush Matt Saracen. He's like a little stinkbug, you can't crush him. He's tough, he'll be fine." - Coach Eric Taylor, Friday Night Lights

I. Case History/Opening Statement

A. Case History

7-3 with Dan Persa. 0-3 without Dan Persa.

Much like any episode of Friday Night Lights (one of the top 10 television dramas of all time -- honestly do yourself a favor and watch the whole series), the story of Northwestern's season climaxed in one, bittersweet moment on November 13, 2010: the thrill of watching a fluttering touchdown pass fall into the outstetched arms of Demetrius Fields to clinch Northwestern's now-nearly annual victory over Iowa, followed by the emotional gut punch to the stomach of seeing Dan Persa crippled on the ground with a ruptured Achilles. If I would have known what was going to happen, I would have cued up some Explosions in the Sky at the Ryan Field DJ booth to provide the perfect soundtrack to the moment.

With Persa, the Cats were much like their 2008 and 2009 versions -- a short-pass heavy and weak-run game offense that nonetheless was efficient and methodical thanks to the talents of its QB, paired with a bend-but-don't-break defense that gets just enough turnovers/keeps the score just low enough to turn losses into wins. A team, in short, that plays a lot of close games, wins more than its fair share of them, but nonetheless fritters away some second-half leads thereby losing games a better, championship-level team would win. The 2010 Wildcats with Persa stuck almost verbatim to this script -- in fact, in some ways, 2010's team with Persa was BETTER than 2009's squad:

The Cats running game continued to struggle, but showed signs of life later in the season with Mike Trumpy, who rushed for 100+ yards against Indiana and Illinois before being injured and lost for the season. In fact, through 10 games, the Cats had a more effective running game in 2010 (145.4 ypg) than in 2009 (119 ypg).
Despite the running game woes, Persa nonetheless managed an offense that led the entire NCAA in methodical (10+ play) drives -- in 12 games against FBS opponents, Northwestern led the entire nation in methodical drives, running off 10+ plays in over 23% of their offensive drives. However, the Cats were woeful on explosive plays, as they were lower than 70th nationally in all points-per-play offensive statistics.
The 3 losses with Persa (Purdue, Michigan State, and at Penn State) all involved the Wildcats losing a 2nd half lead in games that were close/closer than their final score.
The Cats defense with Persa gave up yards to opposing teams but was respectable at preventing scoring -- in fact, through 10 games, Northwestern's 2010 defense had given up fewer points per game (21.4 ppg) than in 2009 (23.3 ppg).

After Persa's injury.....well, the wheels fell off, both offensively and defensively. The Cats couldn't sustain drives behind either redshirt freshman QB Evan Watkins or true freshmen QB Kain Colter (the Cats managed a 10.2% methodical drive percentage, WAY under their rate with Persa), turned the ball over far too often (including 7 turnovers against Wisconsin), and as a result couldn't stay on the field and lost the time of possession battle (Illinois held the ball for 41:16; Wisconsin for 37:15). The result? A gassed defense playing frequently with poor field position gave up 163 points in just 3 games -- a 54.3 ppg average for those 3 games, nearly 33 points more than their average through the previous 10 games.

B. Opening Statement

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I'd like you to close your eyes. Now I want you to imagine a bowl-eligible team that was 7-3 with its starting quarterback. A team that returns 16 starters (9 on offense, 7 on defense). A team with one of the most experienced offensive lines in all FBS, an experienced and talented secondary, a team with a deep and talented squad of wide receivers led by an untackleable superback (Drake Dunsmore) and the Big Ten's leading receiver in 2010 (Jeremy Ebert -- 953 yards receiving and 8 TDs, and among the most efficient WRs in the nation), and a pre-season All-Big Ten defensive end (Vince Browne). A team that was 6-1 in the month of November in 2008 and 2009 -- demonstrating an ability by the coaching staff and team to improve and peak throughout the season. A team that has improved its recruiting year after year, and frequently redshirts the majority of its players so they gain extra experience. A team that has gone to three straight bowl games (yes, all losses -- but two in overtime, and all by one score or less). A team led by a dynamic, young coach with a penchant for wizardry who was pursued by one of the biggest programs in the conference (Michigan), but turned them down to sign a contract through 2020 at his alma mater. A team that misses Ohio State and Wisconsin on its conference schedule. A team led by a Heisman candidate quarterback who led the NCAA in completion percentage last year (73.5% -- a Big Ten record), who threw 15 TDs and only 4 interceptions, who added 519 yards rushing and 9 rushing TDs, and who was named by ESPN as the strongest QB pound-for-pound in the nation.

Does that sound like a possible Big Ten title contender to you? It should....

Now open your eyes. Here is that team -- the 2011 Northwestern Wildcats.

II. Discovery

A. Some of What We've Written About Northwestern This Offseason

B. Northwestern - What We Can Learn from Pop Culture

Why Nine Inch Nails' "Closer" for the 2011 Northwestern Wildcats? (Be careful -- link probably NSFW for your office, although it's just the song, not the actual video above). Well:

The Wildcats play and win a disproportionate number of "close games." Under Fitz since 2006, the Wildcats are 21-9 in games decided by 8 or fewer points, an aberration that drives the statheads crazy.
"Help me, I broke apart my insides....I wanna feel you from the inside..." -- The entire Wildcats season? It pretty much depends on what's going on inside of Dan Persa's repaired Achilles tendon. Every Cats fan is wondering what Persa's Achilles feels like...on the inside.
In the actual video (which I couldn't link to above), there's a bunch of weird footage of Trent Reznor levitating, and a decapitated Hog's head. Appropriate for a team with a wizard for a head coach who loves destroying ~~hogs~~Hawkeyes.
"I wanna f*&$ you like an animal..." Ummmm.....f*&$saw. That is all.

III. Emotional Plea

45032_northwestern_vanderbilt_football_medium

This offseason sucked. Whether it was the rampant abuse of oversigning by ~~cheaters~~ coaches in the SEC like Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier, Les Miles, and Houston Nutt....or Texas' greed and desire to give itself an ESPN-assisted recruiting advantage by airing high school games on the Longhorn Network....or the downfall of Jim Tressel and Terrelle Pryor at Ohio State....or North Carolina finally ditching Butch Davis after his years of scandal....or the Nevin Shapiro scandal at Miami....it all sucked.

We need a virtuous champion to help wipe away this scandal. Certainly many programs in the B1G fit the bill -- we don't oversign (a disgraceful practice that gives the SEC a competitive advantage), we graduate players at rates far above almost every other conference, our teams stay out of the Fulmer Cup (for the most part), we have young men like Kirk Cousins who make us proud of B1G players both on and off the field, and we even have two athletic departments who have never had a major NCAA violation in any sport (Penn State and Northwestern), with numerous others that have never had a major football violation (I believe Iowa and some other schools fall into this category as well).

But for the sake of this emotional plea, I want you to picture Pasadena on January 2, 2012. The Rose Bowl filled with purple (Northwestern) and red (Stanford). The Heisman winning QB vs. the Heisman runner-up QB (Luck vs. Persa or vice versa) -- guys who graduated/were fifth year seniors. Announcers bending over backwards to praise two programs from two conferences that do things the right way -- student-athletes in that order, high APRs, credits to the sport of college football and its ideals. Pat Fitzgerald getting to lead his alma mater onto the Rose Bowl turf, this time without a broken leg.....

What scandalous offseason? I've totally forgotten it.....

IV. Verdict - The OTE Staff Calls the Games

While I'm clearly a homer for Northwestern this season, the OTE staff generally thinks Northwestern is once again bowling this season -- a composite 8-4 (4-4 conference) record seems to be the belief here, with two writers believing that Northwestern wins the Legends, while another believes they'll lose a tiebreaker to Nebraska.

Bama Hawkeye: 7-5 (3-5), losses to Michigan, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska, Michigan State

Ted Glover: 6-6 (3-5), losses to Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn State

Jonathan Franz: 6-6 (2-6), losses to Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan State.

Chadnudj: 11-1 (7-1), loss to Nebraska (and loss to Wisconsin in Big Ten Title game).

MSULaxer27: 7-5 (4-4), losses to Boston College, Iowa, Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan State.

Ricardo Efendi: 10-2 (6-2), losses to Michigan and Iowa (and loss to Wisconsin in Big Ten Title game)

Paterno Ave: 8-4 (4-4), losses to Penn State, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Michigan State.

Kennard Husker: 10-2 (6-2), losses to Iowa and Nebraska.

Hilary Lee: 9-3 (5-3), losses to Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan State.

JDMill: 8-4 (4-4), losses to Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan State.

Graham Filler: 9-3 (5-3), losses to Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan State.

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Comments

11-1?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 10:34 AM CDT reply actions 6 recs

Yes

I was enjoying this well written article so much until I saw that. I then LOL’d and didn’t read the rest.

The High Porch Picnic

by mikjones24 on Aug 23, 2011 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions

So....

…you’re saying you read three-quarters of the article?

Kinda like Iowa only seems to play three quarters of a game against Northwestern?

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 6 recs

That doesn't address

The credibility fail.

Meow.

The High Porch Picnic

by mikjones24 on Aug 23, 2011 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions

What credibility fail?

I made a prediction — perhaps a rash one, but a prediction nonetheless — supported by evidence marshalled to support my claims.

You can agree or disagree with it. But it’s no more or less credible than any other prediction by anyone else using actual evidence/numbers/observations about any other team.

Speculative? Overly-optimistic? Certainly. But not failing “credibility.” It’s not like I fabricated evidence whole-cloth (“Northwestern has cloned Otto Graham, Darnell Autry, and Damien Anderson — plans to rotate the 3 as running backs”) to come up with that prediction.

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

You're a homer... Let it the fuck go

Why defend? You want your team to win, think it could happen and said it… if it doesn’t deny it…. Tressel style…

fOSU

by Grixxly on Aug 23, 2011 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions

And 11-1

with your “Persastrong” player still limping. It’s not like his feet were required to bail the Cats out at all last year…

"Bama Hawkeye, you know, the Iowa blogger who actually uses reason and analysis." - Patrick Vint

http://www.offtackleempire.com

by Bama Hawkeye on Aug 23, 2011 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions

Why are all the Iowa people angry at Chad?

Oh yeah. I remember.

Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Graham Filler on Aug 23, 2011 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions

But when you're #PersaStrong it's not a limp, it's a pimp walk.

by I-L-L-matic on Aug 23, 2011 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I'll stand by it.

Look, I do not get paid for writing here. I have no money on my predictions. If I’m wrong (and I probably will be), nothing changes whatsoever.

But what I do know is this is the most experienced and talented returning Cats team that I can remember in my history as a fan. Almost every other team in the conference lost more than Northwestern to graduation/NFL last year. And the team was 7-3 with Persa, who (while “limping”) is still making plays and is not as of yet a serious threat to miss ANY time — as Fitz said, what the press calls a limp might just be Persa’s “pimp walk.” Besides, Persa can complete 70%+ of his passes without having to seriously scramble.

The team misses OSU and Wisconsin, and after replacing their strength and conditioning coach in the offseason is in the best shape (reportedly) they’ve ever been in. BTN network went to see them yesterday and on Twitter raved about the D-line (the best they’ve seen in 5 years), the depth at all positions, the O-line, the secondary, and the WRs. And the past 3 recruiting classes that will be starting to get playing time this year thanks to Northwestern’s practice of redshirting almost everyone? The highest ranked classes ever at Northwestern.

Every negative perception of Northwestern is being skewed significantly by those final three games, in which they were starting 2 freshmen QBs who had basically never seen the field.

So can they pull off 11-1? Doubtful….but it’s a valid prediction.

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions

Also....

….two other writers had Northwestern at 10-2, and 2 others had them at 9-3. So I’m hardly alone in my positive prediction.

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions

I'm going to cautiously support Chad...

See, I have NW @ 10-2, and it mostly stems from scheduling. Home games against MICH, PSU, Minny, and MSU, missing Wisconsin and Ohio State. I do have them losing @Iowa and @Nebraska, but that’s because I think Iowa will be hyped for the game and Nebraska will be better… Things could swing the opposite direction, of course, but even in a worst case scenario for NW, I’m thinking 8-4 (managing to lose to both MSU and PSU… doubtful in my opinion). I see NW as MSU 2010… Good enough to win a favorable schedule.

Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.

by KennardHusker on Aug 23, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions

The negative perception comes from a lot more than the horrific final three game stretch.

And the team was 7-3 with Persa

Against such mighty programs as Illinois St, Rice (4-8), Vandy (2-10), and Central Michigan (3-9). In conference play with Persa, they went 3-3 with two of those victories coming against Indiana and Minnesota by four combined points!

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs

Truth.

by I-L-L-matic on Aug 23, 2011 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions

And all 3 of those losses....

….occurred when the team gave up 2nd half leads.

Two sides to that coin, my friend….

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Not being able to hold onto a second half lead

doesn’t make me think a team is better. It makes me think, “Hey, this team can’t run the ball for shit and it came back to bite them in the ass multiple times towards the end of their games.”

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Or...

…that the team lacked conditioning/the experience to close out opponents effectively.

Hiring a new conditioning coach, returning 16 starters who are more experienced now, and adding depth might help address that problem.

Also, while you call out NU’s running game, keep in mind — it did improve significantly last year — it was 6th in the conference with 155.9 ypg rushing in 2010, compared to just 117.8 ypg in 2009 – a 44 ypg increase. If Northwestern makes a similar improvement this year (and know that its freshmen-turned-sophomore running backs Mike Trumpy and Adonis Smith have an extra year of experience under their belts, they could), they’ll be more than respectable on the ground.

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions

The irony of using the defense

….occurred when the team gave up 2nd half leads.

after stating:

Kinda like Iowa only seems to play three quarters of a game against Northwestern?

by TEXaco on Aug 23, 2011 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs

Your offensive line

was one of the most “experienced” last year as well, and you couldn’t run for shit then. Will they be better this year? Undoubtedly. But until Northwestern can show me two things, I’m not buying this stock. (1) That the defense can stop an mid-to-upper tier team not named Iowa (your potato-y magic versus us is known and expected) and (2) the NW running “game” doesn’t look like a post-AIRBHG desolate landscape.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Aug 23, 2011 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions

The O-line

couldn’t just support an average run game, but it couldn’t keep Persa from running for his damn life at all, either. It was pretty embarrassing. Let’s hope them being called “experienced” again isn’t just a bad case of deja vu.

And yep, those two things (plus Persa’s health) are what I’m waiting to see improve. Otherwise this is a 7-5/8-4 team at best.

Well said, sir.

by MNWildcat on Aug 24, 2011 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions

My reaction verbatim.

by Fake Pelini on Aug 23, 2011 12:12 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

And can we stop hyping this "experienced offensive line"?

Yes, they’ve started a lot of games. They also gave up 39 sacks in their 12 games against teams not named Illinois St. and didn’t even produce a 600 yard rusher.

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 10:58 AM CDT reply actions

i believe that playing a lot of games is the definition of experience.

your straw man, it is not very durable.

by pfoley on Aug 23, 2011 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions

You're missing the point.

Yes, they’ve played a lot of games. I’m not saying they aren’t experienced. But to just keep saying that this experience somehow makes them a great offensive line is simply untrue. They’re an average unit at best.

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Chad's glasses are sooooooo purple

NATIONAL CHAMPS!!

HELP IS ON THE WAY

~Banned at ATO since June 3rd, 2011, 2ish PM PST

by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 23, 2011 11:16 AM CDT reply actions

Actually....no.

Just making the B1G Championship game. The only B1G team who is a legit national title contender is Wisconsin, in my book.

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions

please tell me that your book is only for sale in borders......

HELP IS ON THE WAY

~Banned at ATO since June 3rd, 2011, 2ish PM PST

by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 23, 2011 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions

I look forward to the sequel

In December, I hope to see either:

A.) Chad’s post titled “What Went Wrong With Northwestern: A Dose of Perspective” or

B.) U-God/mikjones24/Bama Hawkeye/Fake Pelini’s co-authored post titled “Why Northwestern is Better Than My Team in Every Conceivable Way, and Why I’ll Be Wearing Purple to Work Every Day for the Next Week”

by TDozer on Aug 23, 2011 12:25 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

I'm already at a school with purple as their color.

Not that shocking to see me wear it.

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions

never knew you were a Furhman man.

HELP IS ON THE WAY

~Banned at ATO since June 3rd, 2011, 2ish PM PST

by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 23, 2011 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions

What's even better

is that they’re Wildcats

In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.

by Pariahwulfen on Aug 23, 2011 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions

It was an awkward adustment a year ago.

Growing up wearing the Powercat logo thanks to my high school helped the transition.

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions

Fair enough

I hear Manhattan is… well, not nearly as exciting as the other Manhattan.

But in the event of an 11-1 Northwestern, I’d be satisfied with a Nerdwestern t-shirt for a day.

by TDozer on Aug 23, 2011 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions

I'd be more than happy to make a food bet with Chad about it.

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions

food bet food bet

Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Graham Filler on Aug 23, 2011 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions

Parameters something like

I lose if they win double digit games seem fair?

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions

How about

double digit wins OR they make the B1G championship game?

In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.

by Pariahwulfen on Aug 23, 2011 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions

I could dig it.

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions

What is the quintessential Northwestern food to bet?

Anything, served on a silver spoon?

::looks at law school diploma from Northwestern, goes to get silver spoon::

If you think IU football fans are long-suffering, you clearly haven't been tailgating with us lately.

by HoosierCheesehead on Aug 23, 2011 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions

Well if he grows the pair to back it up

I’d expect something out of Chicago to remind me of home. He could expect some delicious KC BBQ.

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions

What are the terms of the bet?

NU in Big Title title game or 10 or more wins, I win?

8 or less wins for NU, you win?

9 wins a push?

Seems fair to me….

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree.

/handshake

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Done.

/handshake.

Now we just need to figure out the food….but there’s plenty of time to settle that (I do approve of KC BBQ, though….). Let me know what your Chicago favorites are….

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions

Will do.

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions

The quintessential NU food bet

Carmen’s pizza. At least it was when I was in school.

by buckyor on Aug 23, 2011 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Definitely closed now.

I heard a rumor it was health reasons.

by MNWildcat on Aug 24, 2011 12:11 AM CDT up reply actions

I'll be happy to write the former...

….I just don’t believe it’ll be necessary. This is the most talented, deepest Northwestern team I’ve seen since I started at Northwestern in 1997…..there’s good reason to be excited/hopeful/irrationally optimistic (okay, only I’m irrationally optimistic).

(That’s not saying I’m writing the piece if we fail to go 11-1….but if we fall below 8-4, I’ll be more than happy to do so).

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Let Iowa be a cautionary tale when it comes to optimism and being "loaded"

Hard to live up to raised expectations.

HELP IS ON THE WAY

~Banned at ATO since June 3rd, 2011, 2ish PM PST

by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 23, 2011 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Truth

So very sadly the truth

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Aug 23, 2011 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions

I can't tell you how much I hope you're right

But man, I can’t help but be incredibly nervous.

Still, as long as we’re making predictions, here’s mine— Kain Colter gets a lot more play at QB than we should be comfortable with, but performs so well that it doesn’t matter.

But the folks focusing on Persa’s injury and any residual limping are chasing the wrong story. The success and failure of the team depends on guys like Brian Peters and Vince Brown getting the defense in order, not Dan Persa.

by TDozer on Aug 23, 2011 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions

OTE --

Where 90% of the writers are objective and well-written and 10% are subjective homers who cannot write a negative word about their favorite team.

by Jdub1126 on Aug 23, 2011 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs

I believe it's actually 90.9%

HELP IS ON THE WAY

~Banned at ATO since June 3rd, 2011, 2ish PM PST

by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 23, 2011 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions

Again...

….two other writers, fans of Nebraska and Wisconsin, respectively, took Northwestern at 10-2…..so it’s not like I’m completely off-base in terms of my prediction.

As for negative words — this is a closing argument for Northwestern. I kinda thought the point was to make the BEST CASE for your client possible…..I played up the strengths, and offered explanations as to why the weaknesses really aren’t that bad…..pretty standard lawyering.

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions

No no no

The point of these posts is obviously to reinforce what everyone else already thinks about your team, not to provide reasons why they might succeed. You clearly missed the part in the Minnesota closing argument where JDMill said, “But this team will absolutely be unprepared. Absolutely nothing is expected of them, and everyone knows they’ll fail. Jerry Kill was a pathetic hire. I’m just going to give up being a Minnesota fan and cheer for Iowa.”

by TDozer on Aug 23, 2011 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions

Fine, but...

11-1? Really?

by I-L-L-matic on Aug 23, 2011 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes, really.

I’ll admit — a roll of the dice on my part, clearly. But this is the most talented/deepest returning NU team I’ve ever seen, and it has a favorable conference schedule missing OSU and Wisconsin.

In 1995 (where the Cats also missed OSU), the Cats went 10-1 regular season en route to the Rose Bowl. If this is the most talented/deepest Cats team I’ve ever seen, doesn’t the 1995 season look like a good place/basis for the opinion? Maybe?

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions

So then your prediction is basically your best-case, everything goes right, nothing goes wrong scenario?

There’s a difference between “I hope Northwestern can go 11-1” and “realistically, I think Northwestern will go 11-1”. I don’t think NU will be a bad team, but realistically, I certainly don’t think they’ll go 11-1. You have to assume that 1.) one guy, who is essentially the team and is coming off an extremely serious injury, will play at or above the level he displayed last year, and 2.) an extremely poor defense will make dramatic improvement from one year to the next in a program that is not known for its defensive prowess. Throw in the fact that the schedule is harder this year top-to-bottom, and I just don’t see 11-1 as realistic under anything but a wet dream scenario.

by I-L-L-matic on Aug 23, 2011 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Dude....

…it’s an internet prediction, based solely on one guy’s (admittedly homer-ish) view. It is based (in part) by the “with Persa” numbers shown above plus expected improvement plus having extra depth/more experienced backups, so it’s not without reason. But it has zero bearing on what will actually happen when games are played. This is what happened when I walked through the schedule for all 12 teams, and nothing more.

And if you think I’m bad, MSULaxer27 has Purdue going 1-11, with their lone win against Rice (meaning they’d lose to Middle Tennessee State, amongst others).

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions

And...

..it’s just MY opinion. 10 other writers also made predictions, with the result a consensus 8-4 (4-4) for the Wildcats…..a prediction that I think is eminently reasonable/valid, and frankly the important one in terms of the analysis of this site in general.

My 11-1 was my advocacy/prediction for the Cats…..the OTE consensus 8-4 was the “verdict” above.

by Chadnudj on Aug 23, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions

Excellent form throwing a colleague under the bus.

by U-God on Aug 23, 2011 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Well, stranger things have happened, I suppose.

Though Purdue losing to MTSU isn’t so outlandish; the Gophers tried really hard to do that last year and came up just short.

by I-L-L-matic on Aug 23, 2011 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Purdue winning only one game out of MTSU, Rice, SEMO St, and IU seems unlikely

I would definitely give NU a better chance of 11-1 than Purdue going 1-11.

Manager at BT Powerhouse a Big Ten basketball blog
@babaoreally

by babaoreally on Aug 24, 2011 12:13 AM CDT up reply actions

Hahahahahahahahaha

The Rose Bowl filled with purple (Northwestern) and red (Stanford).

My hatred for Purdue is so great that no mortal human can detect its existence.

by HawksNation on Aug 23, 2011 1:22 PM CDT reply actions 8 recs

Psh

Everyone knows our stadium doesn’t have seats that comfortable.

by TDozer on Aug 23, 2011 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

Even more ridiculous

is the notion of Stanford going to the Rose Bowl. I’m certainly not buying NW, but I would short the ever living hell out of Stanford if were a stock. Stanford has exactly one thing going for it, Andrew Luck. And Luck is a great player, but he lost 4/5ths of his Oline and all of his top receivers PLUS the coach that got them there. This year screams regression to the mean for Stanford, and I still think they’re good for 7-8 wins, but the only way they see Northwestern in the Rose Bowl is if the two teams play a scrimmage there on January 1st.

I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.

by HoyaGoon on Aug 23, 2011 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

Don't forget

The High Porch Picnic

by mikjones24 on Aug 23, 2011 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs

WOOOO KOOOLAID

Seriously though, average prediction was 8.7-3.3. If you want to criticize people for being outliers, you can go after Franz and Glover more legitimately than Chadnudj.

by nuftw on Aug 23, 2011 2:00 PM CDT reply actions

Correct math ftw

Did you mean 8.3-3.7? Using correct math invalidates your argument. I added them up several times (in case I added wrong once) and every time came up with a composite 91-41. Divide that by 11 and you get 8.3-3.7. Thus Franz and Glover are closer to the average than Chad.

by TEXaco on Aug 23, 2011 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions

Arithmetic was never my strength

Either way, they’re 2.3 off instead of 2.7 for Chad. That’s not that different of a difference.

by nuftw on Aug 23, 2011 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions

WHY ARE WE YELLING!!!

If there is anything of note that our resident Bengali, Chadnudj, seemed to miss, it’s this Fitzgerald gem via the Chicago Tribune:

Your limp could be somebody else’s pimp walk.

Forget Persa strong, how about Dan, “Pimpwalk” Persa from now on. Let the photos commence.

Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.

by KennardHusker on Aug 23, 2011 2:04 PM CDT reply actions

Does this mean Persa gets to wear Wizgerald's Coat of Sorcery +10?

When we get the Pig, the Jug and the Axe, we'll have one hell of a picnic

by Marshmoose on Aug 23, 2011 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs

and the Purple-Pimp Cross Helm +15

With the #1 overall pick in the Rapture Draft, God chooses the Macho King Randy Savage

by BuckeyeSki on Aug 23, 2011 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Goes well with his +10 dexterity Pimp Cane

In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.

by Pariahwulfen on Aug 23, 2011 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions

You make a very solid case for Northwestern

But I can’t buy into the 11-1 prediction. Taking out what should be guaranteed victories on your schedule it would mean you’d have to go 6-1 for these games: @BC, @Illinois, vs UofM, @Iowa, vs PSU, @Neb and vs MSU.

I’ve said this before, but I worry about Persa’s health. He’s only 9 months removed from an Achilles tear which is worse than an ACL tear and he’s still limping a bit. That 7-3 record from 2010 was built up on only one legitimate win (Iowa). The rest of the 6 wins were against teams who had a combined record of 24-48. It’s not like they were blowouts either with 4 of the wins achieved by a total of 11 points.

by Stones1981 on Aug 23, 2011 2:27 PM CDT reply actions

Fair, but

they were in a position to win all of the games they lost, as well (before Persa was hurt.) It’s not like they barely squeaked out wins over crappy teams and then got railed by good teams – they played everyone pretty close, but couldn’t close out games (Purdue, MSU, PSU.) So they clearly had the talent to at least be competitive. Experience is what turns those games into W’s, and NU has a TON of that returning.

by Closso on Sep 1, 2011 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions

All you "logical", "reasonable" folks above.

Damnit, Chad, now I demand that you go full MSULaxer on us and cave to the rabble here craving to see you knock your expectations down 5-6 pegs.

A full revision, complete with Northwestern projected at no better than 8-4, with Dan Persa’s health questioned throughout, and with NO pictures of puppies, kittens, or rainbows. Only sad faces, dark skies, and pictures of an empty Ryan Field.

Goddamn OTE writers and their homerism/lack of professionalism/Communism. Why do I read this rag, again?

by MNWildcat on Aug 24, 2011 12:26 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs