2011 Closing Arguments - Penn State
by Paterno Ave on Aug 25, 2011 9:14 AM CDT
in Penn State
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Guess what: I like the chipmunk logo
I. Case History/Opening Statement
A. Case History
In this same column last year, I went into the 2010 season with a strong sense of optimism. From 2005-2009, PSU averaged over 10 wins per season, putting them into the top 7 in win percentage nationally. The Nittany Lion faithful had become well re-acquainted with success, and 2009's 11-win season was considered somewhat of a disappointment to most. Despite losing all three linebackers and a defensive lineman to the draft, many (myself included) felt that Penn State would be able to absorb the losses and field another top-15 defense as they consistently had done for almost a decade. The question, it seemed, was whether Penn State had broken the cycle of building towards one great season in every three or four, and was going to be able to reload for another double-digit win year.
Well, we certainly didn't reload.
The defense suffered an almost historic rash of injuries. The depleted unit lead to PSU losing by 20+ points in four games, which if the BTN crew is to be believed, hasn't happened to the Lions since 1897. A true freshman starting quarterback, poor line play, and an underwhelming farewell season by Evan Royster lead to an anemic attack through the first couple games on the season. 4-4 in the Big Ten, plus a beating by Alabama, a frightening near-loss to Temple, and a heartbreaking finale against Florida, has Penn State fans looking for some optimism heading into 2011.
B. Opening Statement
Ladies and Gentlemen of the Jury, picture this: on November 19, 2011, a top-10 ranked, one-loss (none in the Big Ten) Penn State squad travels to Ohio State. Between that game and the one the next week in Madison, the Leaders' Division first race will be decided. Storylines for the game: Penn State is the darkhorse contender for the B10 Championship and Terrell Pryor is LIGHTING IT UP in the NFL.*
But how did the Nittany Lions get there? As you'll hear, most commentators (and almost every writer for this site) peg the Lions as an 8-4 team. My colleagues agree onetwo things: Penn State will lose to Alabama, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, and Purdue players will tear their ACL's. Most also think a loss to Nebraska is likely.
But the schedule, while challenging, sets up nice for the hypothetical B10 title run. Losing to Alabama will have no bearing on their conference standing. The three other biggest contenders are entirely backloaded on the schedule, with the Lions' final three games home vs. Nebraska, @ Ohio State, @ Wisconsin. If Penn State can manage a consistent run attack (they should), some improved quarterbacking (they should), and return to form on defense (aside from defensive end, very likely), it's not difficult to imagine them overcoming the Iowa, Purdue, and Illinois (all home, probably all in worse shape than last season). Northwestern should be a challenge, but I think by late October Penn State's superior talent should be up to the task. They then host Nebraska for the first time since 2002. Nebraska should be good, but I was at the 2002 game. At times, it was the loudest and wildest football atmosphere I have ever been a part of. While 2005 Ohio State was crazier as a whole, 2002 Nebraska still had its moments. If Penn State has not yet suffered a Big Ten loss when the Huskers come to town, I would imagine it will be pretty similar.
So, by mid-November it's not far-fetched to think that Penn State has gelled offensively, not completely loss the war of attrition on defense, and leveraged a strong home field advantage to get past Nebraska. Ranked in the top ten, they would be an exciting darkhorse contender for the B10 championship game. Ohio State and Wisconsin will be tough teams and tougher venues, but as they say, "that's why they play the games."
* = Your mom may have told you that in the preseason anything can happen... except the Pryor thing. That cannot happen. Ever.
II. Discovery -
What We Can Learn From Pop Culture
Ladies and gentlemen, an analogy:
Honor is to Ned Stark as Joe Paterno is to Penn State.
Let me explain. But first, spoiler warning if you didn't watch Game of Thrones on HBO last season and still plan on doing so. (First GOT spoiler warning on this site?)
Ned Stark's sense of honor condemns him. Not sure what's up with the editing at the end.
Honor was Ned Stark's definitive quality. Honor was the foundation for all of his decisions and guided him through his life. You could say that his sense of honor ruled him. Not only that, but the other characters in Game of Thrones thought of Stark and his honor as synonymous, the one trait they immediately identified with him. Stark viewed honor as an absolute, and there was no compromising when the realistic best choice asked him to diverge from his theoretical conception of the right choice. The honorable decision was the only choice for him.
When faced with compromise he took the high road, knowing that it would bring him into dangerous conflict. And his sense of honor was the end of him.
Joe Paterno has become the definitive quality of Penn State football. He's been a coach there for over sixty years, and head coach for forty-five. He is the father of Penn State's modern football history, and the success associated with it. And he is the only steward of that success Penn State has known, guiding them through the eras and permutations of college football for decades. A like honor, Joe Paterno is a virtuous quality, known for doing things the right way with his "Grand Experiment." Most fans and the media clearly consider Paterno to be Penn State's most definitive trait: how many stories about Penn State football have you read that don't mention him, whether it be his longevity, his win count, or how successful or unsuccessful his interactions with the media are? If not for JoePa, Penn State probably wouldn't be mentioned on ESPN four out of five years. And despite the annual "Is this his last year?" debate, and the annual "Should this be his last year?" debate, make no mistake: Joe Paterno is Penn State's only choice. He is inextricably entwined in Penn State's identity (and probably booster/season ticket holder income) for them to ever part until he says so.
And while Paterno may not be the "end" of Penn State football, he is certainly the reason that they are condemned to their current second-tier status. Another traditional power may have parted ways with him when times were tough and the on-field results pointed towards going in another coaching direction. But Penn State will go with Joe, for better or worse, through thick and thin, at this point, knowing full well that having an 85-year-old head coach can lead them into dangerous territory.
TL:DR?
Ned Stark's most definitive quality was his virtuous sense of honor, which decided his actions and ultimately condemned him to his fate (getting his head lopped off). Similarly, Penn State's most definitive quality is the virtuous Joe Paterno, who makes all of Penn State's football decisions but has ultimately condemned PSU to its fate (being a second-tier program).
III. Emotional Plea
Quarterback controversy = compelling storyline, right? Well, quarterback competitions and controversies are a dime a dozen in August and September. In 2010, Penn State saw that and raised you a controversy that went straight through the fourth quarter of their January bowl game. Who's to say we're not in for another roller coaster this season?
How about the joy of feeling your stomach in your throat every time McGloin unleashes one deep, evincing all your masochistic nostaglia of QB14 from 2006 and 2007? Or the excitement of knowing that if Bolden doesn't recognize that blitz, he just may get sacked, a concussion, pulled for the year, or all three?
Last season we had the noob freshman who couldn't get it done in the redzone vs. the Brett Favre-lite hometown hero who got more out of the offense as a whole but was intrigued by throwing back-breaking interceptions.
Seconds, anyone?
IV. Verdict
A. The Staff Calls the Games
The OTE Staff sees an 8-4 team this year, losing 3 games in the Big Ten. Apparently we don't even have to play the games against Alabama, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. What I really think is remarkable is the amount of people that see us breaking the Iowa curse: only ONE person projects that as a Penn State loss, after they've dropped 8 of the last 9 to the Hawkeyes.
Oh, and Graham has us losing to Temple. Most years I would have laughed. After last year's clinic on how to settle for field goals, however, it is a frightening prospect...
Bama Hawkeye 8-4 (5-3 B1G) losses to Alabama, Nebraska, OSU, Wisconsin
Ted Glover 6-6 (3-5 B1G)* losses to Alabama, Purdue, Northwestern, Nebraska, OSU, Wisconsin
Jonathan Franz 8-4 (5-3 B1G) losses to Alabama, Nebraska, OSU, Wisconsin
Chadnudj 8-4 (5-3 B1G) losses to Alabama, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
MSUlaxer27 7-5 (4-4 B1G) losses to Alabama, Iowa, Nebraska, OSU, Wisconsin
Ricardo Efendi 8-4 (5-3 B1G) losses to Alabama, Northwestern, OSU, Wisconsin
Paterno Ave 9-3 (6-2 B1G) losses to Alabama, Purdue, Wisconsin
KennardHusker 8-4 (5-3 B1G) losses to Alabama, Northwestern, OSU, Wisconsin
Hilary Lee 8-4 (5-3 B1G) losses to Alabama, Illinois, OSU, Wisconsin
JDMill 9-3 (6-2 B1G) losses to Alabama, OSU, Wisconsin
Graham Filler 7-5 (5-3 B1G) losses to Alabama, TEMPLE, Iowa, OSU, Wisconsin
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FAKE ASS WOLVERINE
This is like O. Henry and Alanis Morrisette had a baby and named it "this exact situation"--Sterling Archer
Some mystifying loss picks in there
4 people picking a loss to Northwestern but only one picking a loss to Iowa? Not at all impossible, but that really doesn’t jive with recent history
5 people picking a win over Nebraska AND a loss to either Purdue, Temple, Northwestern, or Illinois? I don’t think Nebraska is quite as good as all the love they’re getting either, and both Northwestern and Illinois are losable, but picking both doesn’t make a ton of sense. As for the Purdue and Temple loss picks, you’re wrong.
With what should be an excellent defense and outstanding backs and receivers, I think it will come down to the consistent decency of the combination of the o-line and QB(s?). If they play like 2006 or 2010 (totally possible), I still think PSU has the talent and defense to go 8-4, probably in some ugly, unimpressive fashion. If they play like 2005 or 2008 (also totally possible), this is an 11-1 +/- 1 win team.
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
I think the run game and the defense will be strong enough to beat lesser-talented teams.
QB and DE play will mean the difference between 7-8 wins and challenging for the B10 title.
But.
Even though my prediction doesn’t show it, I don’t think even the lesser-talented teams are all gimmes. Northwestern should give us fits. Illinois clobbered us last year, and while we should field a far better defense than that game, they’ve played us tough more often than not recently. Until Rob Henry went down I was really bullish on Purdue, partially because Phil Steele is(/was). And then there’s Iowa.
I think the team has the pieces to be consistently good, get through these teams, and be hitting their stride for the tough end to the B10 schedule. But I also think even the “bad” teams will be good enough that this season can go really any way.
Phil Steele also think's PSU will have (by far) the largest ppg differential in the B1G
+18.1 ppg, second best being Nebraska and OSU at +11.9 ppg. He also thinks PSU starts 6-0 in B1G play before losing to both OSU and Wisconsin, but only because they’re on the road.
I break down the games like this:
PSU could start the second string and it would still be over by halftime (>=99% chance of winning): Indiana State, Eastern Michigan (2-0)
Shouldn’t be in doubt by the end of the 3rd quarter (85-99%): Temple, Indiana, Purdue (3-0)
Losable. PSU should win, maybe even easily, but these are losable (60-85% chance) : Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern. (anywhere from 2-2 to 4-0)
I wouldn’t advise a conservative gambler to take PSU straight up, but love the upset chances (40-60%): Alabama, Ohio State, Wisconsin (anywhere from 0-3 to 3-0, especially because a win over Bama would be huge and propel PSU to big things and Wisconsin would be bumped back a group if it weren’t on the road.)
PSU should expect a loss (<40% chance) none
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
I love the way you broke that down
The levels of winning is pretty good up there. I’m excited to start a new series with Penn State. Although the last series was super boring at times, Nebraska’s win over Penn State (03) was the most boring game ever, and painful at others (02 loss at PSU). Good write-up. I don’t see Nebraska winning at Penn State this year, but I do think Northwestern will sneak up on you (esp on the road).
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
by KennardHusker on Aug 25, 2011 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions
The 03 game was awful
and the 02 game was a combination of Penn State having their best team since at least 96 in tandem with Nebraska having their worst team since televised games. Not really representative of PSU or Nebraska of the early 2000s, just a simultaneous peak and valley for both.
I watched some “highlights” from the 03 game and they actually showed former PSU RB / FB / TE Sean McHugh stumbling for 5 yards on first down once on a completely inconsequential drive. In that game, that qualified as a highlight. Nebraska had no interest in winning, but that PSU team would not be denied the loss
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
Hahahaha
My friend posted that game on facebook as the worst-to-watch win ever. We ran three plays: Option right, option left, HB trap. It was terrible.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
by KennardHusker on Aug 25, 2011 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Let's be serious
The 1999 team, collapse notwithstanding, was better than 2002. Otherwise, I agree.
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
by OctaShields on Aug 25, 2011 10:10 PM CDT up reply actions
The 99 team could have been better
and if not for the Minnesota FG, would have been. But they weren’t. 02 PSU finished #9 Sagarin predictor.
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
I do think Northwestern will sneak up on you (esp on the road).
I forget who did an analysis, and whether it was here or on BSD, but doesn’t Northwestern typically do better away from home that at home? or at least it’s the closest of all the B1G teams…
Fire Dan Snyder
by Cari Greene on Aug 25, 2011 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
That sounds about right
Although you might want to add Alabama to your “expecting a loss.” How do I put this… Ok, Alabama is the Death Star and you’re Alderaan. Plan accordingly.
by mikjones24 on Aug 25, 2011 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'll put it this way
Penn State lost to Alabama last year because Alabama was the best team in the stadium that day. But Alabama was the best team in the stadium only because Trent Richardson had an obnoxious first quarter (8 carries, 92 yards, compared with 14 and 52 for the rest of the game) and Penn State was an unqualified trash can fire in the red zone (4 trips inside the Bama 26…3 points total).
With more experience returning and a change of venue, I think it will be a very different story this time around.
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
Yest so stunningly accurate
This is like O. Henry and Alanis Morrisette had a baby and named it "this exact situation"--Sterling Archer
Great
now you just made me sad
Wait? You mean there are smart black people on the internet!!???
I Think I'm Addicted To Naked women N Sittn Talkn Bout Chicks Tht We Almost Had
Intelligent Ignorance
by TheFreshRonPrinceofBelAir on Aug 26, 2011 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes, but Alabama is even better than they were last year....
especially on defense. I believe it will be a great game….early. But Bama should pull away late. I wish this series was renewed for a few more years.
Bama has a freshman quarterback
Who almost definitely listens to Death Cab during pregame. That alone prevents them from being better than last year.
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
by OctaShields on Aug 25, 2011 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
goddammit
now i have to agree with you on something
HELP IS ON THE WAY
~Banned at ATO since June 3rd, 2011, 2ish PM PST
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 25, 2011 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Obligatory
"We gon' get down. We gon' do the do. I'm going to hit these mother****ers" - Dock Ellis, May 1, 1974.
by OctaShields on Aug 25, 2011 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
not only is it a bad tattoo
but awful placement too
HELP IS ON THE WAY
~Banned at ATO since June 3rd, 2011, 2ish PM PST
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 25, 2011 11:27 PM CDT up reply actions
He's not a freshman.....
AJ McCarron is a red shirt sophomore. So it’s his 3rd year in the system I believe. He is a much better passer than Greg McElroy. The only question is game management. There is a freshman competing with AJ by the name of Phillip Sims. Also a great passer but really a dual threat with his legs. They havent named a starter yet.
And Penn State should be much better than they were last year
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
Alabama win
IMO that requires poor QB play by the Tide’s new QB (whoever that is). In other words at least 2 and preferably 3 turnovers in Tide territory which lead to TDs as opposed to FGs.
"You can't handle the truth!"
"it's not difficult to imagine them overcoming the Iowa"
I’m an Iowa fan and say this same thing about Northwestern every year.
I am dumb.
Think about it.
Oh come on
it’s just Northwestern.
In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.
by Pariahwulfen on Aug 25, 2011 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions
More like justMinnesota.
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 26, 2011 12:48 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
My prediction for PSU in 2011
Excessive Moxy
HELP IS ON THE WAY
~Banned at ATO since June 3rd, 2011, 2ish PM PST
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 25, 2011 10:53 AM CDT reply actions
What happens if McGloin and Bauserman are the starters for then-undefeated PSU and OSU teams in November?
does the universe collapse or something?
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
something about dividing by 0
HELP IS ON THE WAY
~Banned at ATO since June 3rd, 2011, 2ish PM PST
by SouthBayBuckeye on Aug 25, 2011 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Maybe Captain Falcon will send Bauserman flying out of the stadium.
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 26, 2011 12:48 AM CDT up reply actions
That means it's actually Dec 21, 2012
and the Mayan apocalypse starts at kickoff.
This is like O. Henry and Alanis Morrisette had a baby and named it "this exact situation"--Sterling Archer
If McGloin is the starter all season
PSU will IMO already have 4 losses by the time they go to Columbus. He has no shot against the Bama and Husker defenses and will find a way to lose 2 other games (most likely Iowa and Illinois).
"You can't handle the truth!"
Bowser - man
"It just might be that the purpose of your life is to serve as a warning to others." Despair.com
Losses to Temple and Purdue
are IMO highly unlikely. I see 9-3 but 7-5 after a 7-1 start is a distinct possibility.
"You can't handle the truth!"
Ted, Ted, Ted,
Obviously we will be mailing packets of blue Kool-aide to both you and Adam Rittenburg for every “W”. You will receive no less than 11 packets and perhaps as many as 14. They ONLY CONTAIN KOOL-AIDE, so don’t go callin’ the FBI.
"It just might be that the purpose of your life is to serve as a warning to others." Despair.com
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