2011 Closing Arguments - Illinois
by Jonathan Franz on Aug 26, 2011 1:43 AM CDT
in Illinois
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"We've got to play the type of defense you have to play in the Big Ten Conference."
- Ron Zook
I. Case History/Opening Statement
A. Case History
Ron Zook is nothing if not resilient. After a 5-7 season in 2008 and a 3-9 season in 2009, Zook miraculously managed to keep his job at Illinois, but not without being ordered to overhaul his entire coaching staff. A grateful Zook obliged, bringing in offensive coordinator Paul Petrino, quarterbacks coach Jeff Brohm and defensive coordinator Vic Koenning from Arkansas, FIU, and Kansas State respectively. Anytime you mess with the chemistry of a tightly-knit coaching staff you run the risk of disaster, but somehow, someway, the gamble paid off for the Illini in 2010. To be sure, a 7-6 season isn't a cause for celebration in Champaign-Urbana, but it's a solid step in the right direction for a team that looked and played as decently as it has since a 9-4 Rose Bowl campaign in 2007.
Sure, there were impressive wins (Penn State, Northwestern), and humbling losses (Minnesota, Fresno State), but the spirit of the 2010 Illini can't be expressed in such simple metrics. This was a team that maintained the offensive production of the Juice Williams/Arrelious Benn era, while fielding a legitimately-threatening defense. Even more impressive is the fact that they did it without a palpable passing attack or pass rush.
Gone are Mikel Leshoure, Corey Liuget, Clay Nurse, Martez Wilson, Nate Bussey, Jarred Fayson, and Eddie McGee, but there's reason to believe that maybe, just maybe, the 2011 Illini have got what it takes to shake things up a bit in the Leaders Division.
B. Opening Statement
Ladies and Gentlemen of the Jury, I submit to you that the most important indicator of a team's potential for success in the Big Ten Conference is its ability to play defense. You're going to hear a lot in the coming days and weeks about how Nathan Scheelhaase can't lead his receivers, and Jason Ford isn't nearly as nimble as Mikel Leshoure. These perverse doom and gloom forecasts are designed to distract you from the truth. The truth that the Illini return a defensive line that -- with 320-pound OL-turned-DT Craig Wilson stepping in for Corey Liuget -- should be just as difficult to run against as it was last year. And a secondary that's as deep as it has been in the Ron Zook era.
II. Discovery
What We Can Learn From Pop Culture
II. Emotional Plea
Look, Illinois football is still a work in progress, but you have to respect what's right in Champaign-Urbana. An up and coming sophomore dual-threat quarterback who is bound to improve in the pocket, a big bruising running back that can do damage between the tackles, an oversized defensive line, and seemingly endless secondary. Sure, there's room to improve in run/pass balance, in the pass rush department, and in the linebacking ranks, but the Fighting Illini are primed to be just that in 2011, a team capable of pulling a few punches.
IV. Verdict
A. The Staff Calls the Games
The Off Tackle Empire staff foresees on average just over 6 wins and just under 6 losses for Illinois in 2011. Ted and I are the most bullish on Ron Zook's squad although 7 of our 11 writers predict that the Illini will be bowl eligible for the second year in a row.
Bama Hawkeye 4-8 (1-7 B1G) losses to Arizona State, Northwestern, OSU, Purdue, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota
Ted Glover 8-4 (4-4 B1G) losses to OSU, PSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Jonathan Franz 8-4 (5-3 B1G) losses to Arizona State, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin
Chadnudj 6-6 (2-6 B1G) losses to Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota
MSUlaxer27 7-5 (4-4 B1G) losses to Arizona State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin
Ricardo Efendi 5-7 (2-6 B1G) losses to Arizona State, Northwestern, OSU, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota
Paterno Ave 6-6 (3-5 B1G) losses to Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Penn State, and Wisconsin
KennardHusker 6-6 (3-5 B1G) losses to Arizona State, Northwestern, OSU, Purdue, Penn State, and Wisconsin
Hilary Lee 7-5 (3-5 B1G) losses to Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota
JDMill 5-7 (2-6 B1G) wins over Arkansas State, South Dakota State, Western Michigan, Indiana, and Purdue
Graham Filler 5-7 (2-6 B1G) losses to Arizona State, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota
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really underrated dude
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
They say he's looked good in camp.
But Petrino is raving about two rookies – Donovonn Young and Josh Ferguson. The coaches like Young so much they gave him jersey number 5 – same as Mendenhall and Leshoure.
by I-L-L-matic on Aug 26, 2011 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
On the defensive line, the Illini have one of the best-named players in college football:
Whitney Mercilus.
Does Mercilus, Whitney look like a bitch
by TEXaco on Aug 26, 2011 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 6 recs
SAY WHAT AGAIN
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Aug 26, 2011 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Man TEXaco that needs to go green
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Aug 26, 2011 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
It is now...
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 26, 2011 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
So if we set an over/under on comments from Illinois fans today
and that number was 12.5, would you feel comfortable taking the over?
I kid, I kid… So this is a real question. What are the expectations for Zook to keep his job this year? I mean, he’s making improvements and all, but sooner or later something has to break, right? I’m new to following him, but he reminds me of Dan Hawkins at Colorado. Hawkins kept getting extensions and time, but could never break through. Would a 6-6 season keep him there?
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
No, 6-6 gets him fired.
The 19-year tenure of AD Ron Guenther ended with his retirement in June, and he was primarily responsible for keeping Zook on (that, and the fact that the University didn’t want to buy out his contract because our goddamned deadbeat state is about $700 million behind on what it owes U of I). We got Cincinnati’s AD, Mike Thomas, just the other week, and most people seem to be saying that ADs like to put their stamp on a program. Zook needs a minimum of 7 wins AND a bowl win, in my opinion. Personally, I see 6 wins as the floor and 9 as the ceiling this year.
Oh, and I wouldn't take the over.
The line is more like 5.5…
Ouch...
Nothing like a deadbeat state to alter the fate of your football team. Thanks for the insight on Zook’s hotseat. I really have a hard time trying to figure out Illinois this season. Of course, I’m having troubles figuring out anyone this season.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
by KennardHusker on Aug 26, 2011 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions
You're not alone
Illinois is never predictable. Take the last 5 years:
2006: 2-10 (1-7 Conf)
2007: 9-4 (6-2 Conf) + L in Rose Bowl
2008: 5-7 (3-5 Conf)
2009: 3-9 (2-6 Conf)
2010: 7-6 (4-4 Conf) + W in Texas Bowl.
If you can predict their record this year, you should try your hand in the lottery
When we get the Pig, the Jug and the Axe, we'll have one hell of a picnic
by Marshmoose on Aug 26, 2011 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
6-6 with a bowl win gets him fired?
or does he not get to coach in the bowl game if the team finishes 6-6?
I can’t stand the fact that PSU is in the same division as Zook, because while at both Illinois and Florida, the guy always seems to both win and lose one or two games every year (or, at the very least, vastly over and under achieve), which really bungles any projections on the season.
I don’t want him around for just that reason, but 7-6 with a bowl win would mean two straight not-great-but-still-winning seasons. When you consider the state of the program he took over, that’s not too shabby.
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
That's tricky.
Illinois has never won back-to-back bowl games, so it would be hard to fire him for doing something positive that has never been done in program history. On the other hand, I think most fans would consider 6-6 a disappointment; yes, we lost some talented guys to the NFL, but we return a young QB with a very bright future, a very good offensive line (4 starters back), a running back many expected to be the starter last year, and a deep and experienced secondary. The weaknesses will be in the front seven and the punting game.
The Zook unpredictability factor is maddening. When I think about the fact that we lost to a really bad team last year (Minnesota) and an eminently beatable one (Fresno) and could (and probably should) have finished with 8 wins, I lean towards firing the dude for a 6-6 + bowl win season.
Back to back bowl games
are not really that impressive anymore. Ten (six?) years ago and a 6-6 record doesn’t even get you into a bowl.
Back-to-back bowl wins, not appearances.
And I’m with you, but with 7 losing seasons in 9 years…
by I-L-L-matic on Aug 26, 2011 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes
and I meant back to back bowl wins. I’d like to place a Northwestern comment in here, but those in glass houses…
2007
6-6 (3-5) Northwestern shut out from a bowl despite reaching eligibility, four years ago.
Not that the team necessarily deserved it (or that they would have won), but I don’t think 7-5 (3-5) teams Indiana, Michigan State, or Purdue were much more deserving than NU, especially since the ’Cats beat two of the three.
But since the addition of exciting bowl games like the TicketCity Bowl (woohoo), I don’t think we see bowl-eligible Big Ten teams going unselected again, at least not until the whole bowl system collapses.
Don't forget 6-6 Iowa also getting shut out of the postseason that year.
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 26, 2011 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Right, Iowa too
For some reason I always forget about them. If only their fans were more active on the internet, especially OTE.
by TDozer on Aug 26, 2011 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
This.
Zook and Weber both need successful postseasons or they’re gone.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
For some reason I feel like Weber has a longer leash
At least he’s only missed two NCAA Tournaments. Zook is just, well, Zook. Now, that new AD you guys got is probabaly going to have everyone on a short leash, but for some reason Weber seems a little safer. (This is total conjecture gleaned from talking to a few Illini fans.)
Isn't he the one that made the final game
or was that the coach before him?
In the name of the Woody, the Bo, and the Mustache Ride. Amen.
by Pariahwulfen on Aug 26, 2011 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions
He did
using Self’s recruits. Last season was our first “deep” run in the tourney since. His ass is on the hot seat.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
I love the man, but he just ain't cutting it.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
Agreed.
Illinois has 8 home games this year. They should go 4-0 non-conference, especially with ASU’s injuries, the game being at home, and, for ASU, the game sandwiched between Missouri and USC. They should go at least 4-4 in conference, and I think this team will be better than last year. Worst case scenario, Illinois goes 3-1 non-con, and a 3-5 conference record gets him fired. I think any losing conference record gets him fired, whether they go 4-0 or 3-1 non-conference. And if there is any other loss out of conference, the Illini will have to make up for it in conference play. I could see this team winning 10 games, but I think they’ll go 8-4.
This team is impossible to project
nothing from 2-10 (between Arkansas State, South Dakota State, and Western Michigan, there should be at least 2 wins, even if they Zooker up one for a loss) to 10-2 (there are 8ish games that are very winnable, and Zookering up one or two wins is also possible) would surprise me too much
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
Illinois is going to be good
I don’t know that they’re going to win the Leaders Division, but they’ll be in it until the last week or two of the season, and I won’t be surprised if they do.
This is like O. Henry and Alanis Morrisette had a baby and named it "this exact situation"--Sterling Archer
This is how I sorta feel too
I’ve already expressed my opinion the historical fact that the Zooker’s team will always completely overachieve once or twice a season and will inexplicably crap the bed once or twice per season. If those overachieving games are against PSU, OSU, and/or Wisconsin, and they take care of business the rest of the way…yeah, absolutely. They could win it. By the same token, 4-8ish is also in the cards.
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
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