The B1G Five - Evaluating Big Ten Teams in the Preseason Top 25
by Jonathan Franz on Aug 5, 2011 2:29 AM CDT
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Wisconsin leads the charge of B1G teams in the preseason Top 25
Those of you who have been around for a while know my feelings about preseason polls. (My anti-poll manifesto is here in case you'd like a refresher.) Nevertheless, these pre-season popularity contests aren't going away anytime soon -- and as it turns out, I root for a team that greatly benefits from the status quo -- so my new mentality is simple: if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.
Fear not friends. I'm not about to unveil another Top 25. All I want to do is take a look at where B1G teams landed, for better or worse.
So the B1G placed 5 teams in the Preseason Coaches Poll that was released Thursday by USA Today. That's tied with the Big 12 for second best of any conference. Any guesses about who had the most? I'll let our friends at Team Speed Kills tell you:
Here is the breakdown by conference:
- SEC: 8 teams
- Big 12: 5 teams
- Big Ten: 5 teams
- ACC: 2 teams
- MWC: 2 teams
- Pac-12: 2 teams
- Independents: 1 team
Here's how the good guys fared (template courtesy of Bama Hawkeye):
# 10 - Wisconsin
It's too high because:
Haven't you heard? Wisky can't deal with preseason expectations. Consider their track record:
- Wisconsin came into the 2000 season ranked 4th in the nation on the heels of a 10-2 season. They finished 23rd, after a 9-4 campaign that included three losses in their first six games.
- Wisconsin came into the 2001 season ranked 23rd. They lost two of their first three games -- and went on to finish the season unranked and bowl-less with a losing 5-7 record.
- In 2002, the Badgers were a preseason No. 25. They stormed out of the gate with 5 wins in a row, only to lose six of their next seven. Final ranking? Unranked.
- 2003: Preseason Rank (21), Final Rank (Unranked)
- 2007: Preseason Rank (7), Final Rank (24)
- 2008: Preseason Rank (13), Final Rank (Unranked)
Oh, you wanted something less arbitrary. Okay, the Badgers are unproven on the defensive side of the ball. They'll suit up this year without Gabe Carimi, John Moffitt, and J.J. Watt. That could leave them without an effective pass rush. And their phenom quarterback transfer might not have enough time to get up to speed in a new system and with new teammates.
It's too low because:
This is one of the most balanced, physical teams in the country and they barely cracked the Top 10 for crying out loud. You'd be hard pressed to find a better stable of running backs anywhere, and the Badgers just landed a proven signal caller in Russell Wilson. Wisky gets its toughest opponent of the season (Nebraska) at home and the only other team that can really challenge them in the Leaders division is hurting.
The Verdict:
This team was one bad 2-point conversion call away from winning the 2010 Rose Bowl, and landing in the preseason Top 5 where they belong. I'd take them over Florida State, Stanford, Boise State, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M right now.
Will he bring the Cornhusker offense back from the dead?
# 11 - Nebraska
It's too high because:
They still have no offense. I mean do you remember the second-half of 2010? How about the second half of the 2010 Big 12 Championship Game? Maybe this will ring a bell. Still no? How about this. Plus they're bound to suffer some growing pains in the transition to the new league.
It's too low because:
They're the pre-season favorite in the B1G. Like Wisconsin they'll have the benefit of facing a watered-down Ohio State. And the Buckeyes come to Lincoln. If the Huskers can get out of Camp Randall with a win, they've got a real chance of running the table.
Oh yeah, they don't have to play Texas either.
The Verdict:
Like the porridge in the story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears this ranking is just about right. Potential aside, this is still a team that lost 4 games in 2010.
# 16 - Ohio State
It's too high because:
Jim Tressel, one of the most successful coaches in the program's history is gone, and so is the automatic 10-win season. Also AWOL is Terrelle Pryor. Say what you want about consistency, Pryor was the offensive MVP of back-to-back BCS bowls, and he converted literally every third and long the Buckeyes had last season.
Throw in the fact that four starters have to sit out the first five games of the season, the (purported) trial by fire baptism of a freshman quarterback, and the potential for program crushing sanctions being handed down in October and you've got a recipe for disaster.
It's too low because:
It's Ohio State. There's more talent on that squad then the rest of the Leader's Division put together. The defense is bound to perform at a near championship level, and they've still got arguably the best center in the country and a punishing array of weapons in the backfield.
Not to mention they've won at least a share of the last 6 B1G championships. Sleep on the scarlet at your own risk.
The Verdict:
My gut says 16 is a little high. Let's re-evaluate after that Week 3 trip to Coral Gables.
# 17 - Michigan State
It's too high because:
Last year's team only beat one opponent that finished the season in the Top 25. And they got manhandled by two of the three best teams they faced. The Spartans play OSU, Michigan, Wisky, and Nebraska in consecutive weeks. They're bound to be out of the Top 25 after that gauntlet.
It's too low because:
There's not a quarterback in the league that has Kirk Cousins' experience behind center. Combine Cousins' precision with the brute force of All-B1G running back Edwin Baker, sprinkle in two of the best guards in conference (Joel Foreman and Chris McDonald) for good measure and you've got a recipe for production.
The Verdict:
This is just about right for Michigan State. They'll have plenty of opportunities in 2011 to prove they belong in the Top 15.
# 25 - Penn State
It's too high because:
They lack experience behind center. The roster is susceptible to injuries and a finish against Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin is downright brutal. Not to mention Alabama and Iowa come to town.
It's too low because:
It's Penn State. This is talented team with excellent coaches that is used to playing the big boys.
The Verdict:
This is probably a little high for the Nittany Lions considering the schedule. I think we're looking at a 7 or 8 win team tops.
Also receiving votes:
# 30 - Iowa
# 31 - Northwestern
# 34 - Michigan
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Wow
This team was one bad 2-point conversion call away from winning the 2010 Rose Bowl, and landing in the preseason Top 5 where they belong.
Bret Beliema appreciates your lack of criticism.
technically
they were a bad 2-point conversion playcall from tying the Frogs, but your point is taken.
more like whole second and third quarters worth of bad playcalling
by Badger_in_Utah on Aug 5, 2011 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Bad Playcalling?
The playcalling in that game didn’t seem to fall of course from the general playcalling all season long. TCU just wasn’t having it.
"Are you serious Clark?"
Did you watch the game? Wisconsin rushed the ball 46 times… seems like a lot… 19 of those rushing attempts were before the 7 minute mark in the 2nd Quarter, and 9 of those attempts came after the 7:32 mark in the 4th quarter (all on one drive, and they scored). That’s 28 rushes from the 1st quarter and a half and the last half of the 4th quarter, leaving only 13 rushes in between. Thirteen rushing attempts over a two quarter period is not Wisconsin football, not when you’re averaging over 11.2 rushing attempts per quarter that year. During the rush-heavy play calling periods, they scored 16 points. During the two quarters in between, they scored 3. TCU did not win the Rose Bowl. Paul Chryst lost it.
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Aug 5, 2011 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Oops, bad math...
18 attempts in the quarters in between (i was looking at the number 41 on my desk). Still, that makes 9 rushing attempts in the quarters in between, below their average of 11.2 for the year, and way different than their gameplan earlier in the first quarter and a half when they were scoring points.
Still, given the success of the run game early and late, Wisconsin should have ran the ball 56 times.
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Aug 5, 2011 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Whatever
Nebraska has 5 national championships, 9,000 all-Americans and 14,324 consecutive sellout home games.
I can't tell if this is 5-Star Humorous trolling
Or if Fake Pelini had a kid named Steve. If it is the latter, I hope you brought your poncho, because I’ll be bringing a shitstorm. (Dear God, please don’t let it be the latter)
Porkchop Sandwiches!!
by SNCBucky on Aug 5, 2011 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Fake Pelini and I don't get along very well.
Consider this the former, though, I would say it’s closer to 3-star trolling. Thanks, love you.
*9,000 academic all-Americans
Get it right.
Why, Johnny Ringo, you look like someone just walked over your grave.
I hate Wisconsin and still feel bad for its fans after reading that.
Ouch.
"What do we have here?"
"We're going to Saint Croix."
"We are? Oh, goody. I'm so happy."
"Well, I hope you're happy for us, because it's just Carrie and me."
"I see. Once again I humiliate myself by assuming that I'm a member of this family."
-Arthur and Doug, bantering about the Heffernan's vacation plans
Never feel bad for Wisconsin.
Like, ever.
by MNWildcat on Aug 5, 2011 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
2 questions
Where is the Northwestern love? With Persa back and healthy, picking them 7th in the Big Ten seems a bit low, no?
No way Northwestern is ranked below Iowa and Penn State to start the season. Ridiculous.
Also, why do people think RichRod’s players are suddenly going to be able to play defense? Why does anyone think Brady ‘my offense is so vanilla it makes Lloyd Carr look for something spicy’ Hoke, is gonna know what to do with a 5’11" spread QB? Classic square peg round hole situation.
Michigan finishes between 10th-12th in the conference. Book it.
I'll respond thusly, Ahli:
(1) No defense (sorry, Chad) = no joke. Period. Prove that we won’t give up 500+ on the ground to Illinois, and maybe we deserve respect/a higher ranking.
(2) Ranking Iowa, NU, and PSU doesn’t matter. We’re all probably going to beat each other.
(3) Michigan could finish higher based on talent alone. I think that might be enough to overcome IU, Purdue, and perhaps Minnesota.
But I’ll accept your booking. Save for November 19th, I am, as I was raised, rooting for the Gophers to surprise people. But I am, as I was raised, braced for an Insight Bowl win over TTU disappointment.
How bout you change that to...
‘This team would have pounded TCU in the Rose Bowl if Bielema and Paul Chryst hadn’t inexplicably abandoned the power running game against a team filled with 245 pound D-linemen?
by AhliBobwa on Aug 5, 2011 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
holy damn
I cannot believe OSU and PSU are close to the Top 25. The B1G is going to beat itself up this year and unproven quarterback play has no place in the Top 25…
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
Look at the teams below them.
There really isn’t a great case for any of them. This is one of those years where the old Top 20 poll would have been a better indication of top-flight talent. Besides with a Week 2 date against Alabama, PSU is either dropping out or rocketing up the polls.
Also, the 25th best team at the end of the season usually has 4-5 losses. I think both of those teams could be in the same neighborhood at the end of the season.
Bloggin' at JoePasDoghouse.com
Agreed
I could see OSU at around #22 or so (and that’s based solely on reputation, since the team has so many question marks), but PSU has no business in the top 25 with their unsettled situation at QB. Both Iowa and Northwestern should be ranked ahead of PSU.
lolwut.jpg
Personally, I try to not be biased in my evaluation of my favorite sports teams, and most of the time I fall more or less in line with the rest of the world’s expectations. But apparently this year either I’m nuts or everyone is underestimating Penn State. The defense is going to be much better this year. There’s a wealth of talent at RB even with the loss of Royster. The receiving corps could arguably be the best in the conference. And regardless of who starts at QB, it’s probably safe to assume they will be better than they were last year.
The million dollar question, as with any team, is will the lines be better? The offensive line sucked in pass protection last year, especially at the beginning of the season. The defensive line hardly ever penetrated into the backfield. If these two units perform similarly, I’d say an 8 win season isn’t unreasonable. But I’m looking for about 9 regular-season wins from Penn State this year, and wouldn’t be surprised if they went to Indy.
I can’t see that at all from Northwestern or Iowa this year, no matter how hard I squint.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
How bad is PSU's injury situation at D-end? It seems to me
that when PSU is elite it has a lot to do with stellar Defensive End play.
If my memory serves me
we’ve lost Pete Massaro at DE to a knee injury, who was projected to start and was basically our most proven DE on the roster. The guys that are left have plenty of hype but really haven’t shown yet that they can be as disruptive as an Aaron Maybin or Tamba Hali. Our defense really relies on the line eating up blockers, allowing the linebackers room to roam, make reads, and get tackles, so without effective play from the line the defense might have some troubles against better teams.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
Not worthy of top 25?
When was the last time tOSU was out of the top 25? Wishful thinking to believe they will fall out.
/Texas'd
It never gets to be easy.
Why the fuck doesn't it ever get to be easy?
by chitownhawkeye on Aug 5, 2011 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Same with OU.
They were bona fide AWFUL before Bob Stoops came along,
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 6, 2011 7:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Les Miles's craziness isn't forgettable.
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Aug 6, 2011 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions
NCAA probation can be a bitch
OU through the mid 90s was still dealing with the fallout from the Switzer-era NCAA penalties, which were brutal (bowl bans, scholarship reductions AND live tv ban).
I ate the blue ones ... they taste like burning.
So how's Michigan's "unproven" QB situation?
Matt McGloin and Denard Robinson saw two common opponents with winning records last year: @Ohio State and home vs. Michigan State. Not a large sample, but it’s all we have.
Matt McGloin: QB score (yes, this includes rushing, but not TDs) of +90, 4 TD
Denard Robinson: QB score of +35, 3 TD
All indications: Matt McGloin > Denard Robinson against respectable competition. McGloin probably won’t be the starter because PSU has a guy better than him.
"I play for Penn State, we don't celebrate after TDs." - Penn State's Derek Moye, on being asked to act like he's celebrating a TD during a BTN shoot.
Minus the fact that these are preseason rankings...
these seem fine to me. I think the Badgers could be higher, but I see where the voters are coming from. WAY too much respect for aTm who by all counts could have and maybe should have lost to Nebraska and Baylor, and got waxed by the Mad Hatter in the Cotton Bowl. This will be a strange year, and the rankings reflect that.
Always check the words with the red squiggly line. They mean you probably screwed up.
PSU being in the top 25 is a joke
Looks like the coaches gave them a “THEY ARE” State Penn slow-j for old times sake
With the #1 overall pick in the Rapture Draft, God chooses the Macho King Randy Savage
saw it coming
Off Tackle Empire
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.
by Graham Filler on Aug 5, 2011 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm always puzzled when a rankings analysis is based on strength of schedule.
Things like, " The Spartans play OSU, Michigan, Wisky, and Nebraska in consecutive weeks. They’re bound to be out of the Top 25 after that gauntlet."
College football polls, pre-season or not, aren’t based on how each team is expected to finish the season. They’re based on how good those teams look right now. (OK, and also whether they play in the ESS-EEE-SEE or not…) Analyzing a teams’ schedule is fine if you want to predict if/where they’ll go bowling, but it seems silly to argue that a team is overrated because they play a tough slate and probably won’t win all their games. The issue should be WHY they won’t win those games: major question marks on the O-line and at linebacker.
America, you're looking good: handsome, free and tall.
by Close Shave America on Aug 5, 2011 10:14 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Even as a Michigan fan
…for the Wolverines to get enough votes to be #34 seems too high, considering all the question marks as they start the season, most notably the defense and special teams. Nice to have a coaching staff with strong resumes, but we won’t know if they’ve had time to really turn things around until week 4 or 5. #34 I think is simply respect for Hoke, Borges and Mattison, nothing more.
Not a Michigan fan
but I agree completely. They may surprise this year (I haven’t been paying all that much attention to their personnel changes so maybe they have more improvement potential than I think) but until there’s evidence that their D has improved in a major way I don’t see them cracking the Top 25.
by TheCrestedHelm on Aug 5, 2011 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
I think OSU is rated just about right
I’ve heard from people I know that still work at the OSU Athletic Dept that Fickell has brought a level of intesity that they never experienced under Tressel. The entire team is really embracing the “Us Against the World” mentality.
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Aug 5, 2011 10:43 AM CDT reply actions
no disrespect
but thinking that the 16 rank is about right because of something you heard….that is something intangible and shouldn’t be accounted for in pre-season rankings…
just a little thin in the logic train for my liking. You may end up being right when all is said and done, but the purpose behind the rankings shouldn’t be based on gut feelings or things that they heard. I think that top 25 is a good start, but 16 is a bit too high, imho.
I understand your point.
So how about this…
Jim Heacock is still defensive coordinator, and the defense looks to be loaded once again, and you can’t beat a team you can’t score on. I think 16 is about right when you consider that. Who would you put in front of them? Auburn? Notre Dame? Mississippi State? With all do respect much disrespect to my Wolverine friends, Ohio State wouldn’t have let Mississippi State score more than 13 points last year. They were an abysmal 86th in the nation in passing yards, but 16th in rushing yards, and last time I checked, OSU is pretty good at stopping the run. (pre-emptive strike: except against Wisconsin).
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Aug 5, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Well...I see your point, too
…but first off, who would I put in front of OSU? I wouldn’t even have a pre-season poll to begin with, but that’s a discussion for a different day.
Yeah, I agree that the defense should be just as strong as last year, and you can’t beat a team you can’t score on, but its hard to ignore the impact that losing the head coach will have, or COULD have. As you said before, they have the “us against the world” attitude, so that could help a lot, but again…hard to quantify. But don’t bring UM into the discussion…coming close to deflecting the conversation beyond my point. This is aobut you guys, not us. Our troubles are well documented.
So, you lose your possible Heisman Trophy candidate QB, you lose 4 other players for five games, two (at least) of which are big guns, and a new head coach. Not taking anything away from the remaining staff…but new leadership. It will take on a new feel no matter what, so again…hard to quantify. I’m brought back to my opinion that 16 is a tad too high. Somewhere around 20-22 makes more sense, but based on what Auburn has done and Miss State, yeah…I may put those ahead of OSU, even with their losses. Auburn I think is in the same boat as OSU…they don’t rebuild, they reload. ND ahead of you? Not on my mother’s life…lol.
All very debatable…I concede that.
They certainly could surprise...
but if I count on it, then I’m a homer. If I totally discount it, then I’m a hater. Can’t win. lmao… But they have had some personnel improvements in the secondary with the return of Troy Wolfolk, a needed change to be sure. A highly tauted, but currently untested, kicker who has reportedly a strong leg. Then the WR/TE talent that was underutilized last year. But their talent is only exposed if we can get them the ball with a good system and pro-style QB play, which brings us right back to one of the big questions marks for the season — will DRob find success under Borges’ system.
This Poll isn't worth the 3.5 seconds I spent skimming it... Why?
18. Notre Dame. That win over the powerhouse 7-6 Miami team really gave em some street cred! Total crap.
Michigan not in the Top 25?!?!?
When was the last time the Wolverines were unranked?
oh….nevermind
/trollface
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
I think OSU and PSU are both low
There are not 15 teams in the country more talented than OSU, and there are not 24 teams in the country more talented than Penn State. This is a fact.
Before the inevitable accusations of being a crazy homer, Phil Steele’s Power Plays computer says PSU will have the #2 scoring defense and #10 scoring offense amongst BCS programs, #1 in the Big Ten (although tied with MSU on the latter at 33.0 ppg) in both. I am not alone in thinking this is a team that could really surprise some people.
As for OSU, who’s going to beat them? I suspect 2ish teams will, but I’m not too confident in picking 2 teams individually to do it. They get Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State at home. Nebraska’s on the road, but Nebraska is still a 4 loss team who needed OT to beat ISU making a transition from MACrifice level competition the Big 12 North. Miami and Colorado are both sporting new coaches and are coming off rough years.
is there anyway i can redeem myself, i was not sure if i should say "we" at that moment
by Skins4ever on Feb 2, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope PSU has a QB step up
and has a huge year. The Gophers don’t play them, and if Wisconsin makes the inaugural Big Ten title game or (cringes) another Rose Bowl, I will be vomiting more than I did my freshmen year of college.
Got my tickets to Penn State-Bama
Yes, I know this means I’ll miss my beloved Buckeyes offering up the University of Toledo Sacrificial Lambs to Lord Woody, but I have a bunch of friends who went to PSU, so it’ll be a fun road trip. I’ve been saying for some time that PSU could surprise. This team reminds me a lot of the 2005 team, who were a bad call away from possibly going to Pasadena (given the fact that the Big Ten was rated ahead of the Big XII that year in every computer ranking, Penn State had a very good shot at leap-frogging Texas).
by TheHumbleBuckeye on Aug 7, 2011 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions
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