Post Week 2 - 2011 Bowl Projections
by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 11, 2011 5:35 AM CDT
in Bowl Projections
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Just when you thought that all was lost. Just when it seemed that the B1G was having the worst day since...well, this year's first day, Michigan won the most exciting game in the history of a twelve team Big Ten. What will drive the anti-Michigan crowd nuts, is how nicely their schedule sets up for a legitimate run at the BCS. Yes, their defense is flawed. No, they won't play against Notre Dame's turnover team every week. But, they're going to win their last two non-con games. They'll beat Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. That's eight. Can they get two wins from Northwestern, Michigan State, Nebraska and Ohio State? It says here they can. And at 10-2, they may not win the Legends, but they may get selected for the BCS ahead of the B1G Title Game loser, much like 10-2 Arkansas getting the SEC bid last year. There's still room. Feel free to hop on the Michigan bandwagon.
As for the projections, let's remember that there are rules:
- The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
- The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Fiesta Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Orange Bowl.
- Until a team is officially bowl banned, we assume that they can and will go. So, no USC. Ohio State, Oregon, North Carolina, <ahem> Miami...you're in consideration until otherwise notified.
- If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will NOT be required to take a non-automatic qualifier. This was only required of the Rose Bowl the first time (2010 season) it occurred over the current four-year contract.
- The Insight Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Gator Bowl this year. It will rotate the other way next year.
Got it? Good. Let's get on to the projections.
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Virginia Tech is chugging toward it's 13-0 season. Alabama's defense looked scary. How many of those starters are future pros? Ten? Eleven? |
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The B1G is Wisconsin's for the taking. I'm expecting 12-1 when it's all over. I still like Oregon over Stanford, and I expect that LSU loss won't look bad on their final resume. |
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If Oklahoma wants to reach the BCS title game, they'll need to run the table. I'm still thinking that they drop one somewhere. 10-2 Stanford gets an at large pick. |
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10-2 LSU goes to the Sugar Bowl as the replacement for Alabama. Left with the choice between Boise State and West Virginia, the Sugar Bowl gives us a dream matchup. |
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Michigan is the replacement for Virginia Tech. West Virginia is the best that the Big East has to offer. This game is in the 40s. |
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10-2 Nebraska drops the B1G Title game to Wisconsin. Getting passed over for Michigan makes it feel like old times in the Big 12. SEC East champ South Carolina gets the bid for the SEC, with a similar 10-3 record. |
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Look, Toledo is a good MAC team. But if Ohio State is a contender, that shouldn't matter. Today was the beginning of the end of the Fickel Era in Columbus. It's a bit of a reach, and a return trip, but the Outback can't resist the sizzle of matching Florida with the Buckeyes. |
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8-4 Penn State versus 8-4 Texas. It's a sell out, and it does huge numbers for ESPN. |
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I can't believe that I'm saying this, but Northwestern gets to 9 wins. They still get passed over by Ohio and Penn State, but they get a better chance at ending their bowl skid. Tennessee slips in at 7-5. Considering their non-conference schedule, it's not something to be that proud of. |
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Sparty may be the third best team in the Big Ten, but that schedule will still see them lose four games. This will be a 6-6 Big 12 team. Iowa State has a huge game at UConn on Friday night. A win, and this bowl game is possible. |
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7-5 Iowa gets the nod over 7-5 Illinois. Why? Illinois played in Texas last year, while Iowa hasn't bowled there since 2006. Expect to see the best from the C-USA West, outside of the league champ. |
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Illinois begrudgingly packs its bags for Detroit. Toledo gets the MAC bid. I would not take them lightly. |
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If you can't get to six wins, you're on the couch with the Queso Bowl. With the opponents that they were playing, all three of these teams needed to win today to have a chance at even getting to six wins. You can argue whose loss was the most pathetic, but with where they stand, none of these three can get past five wins. |
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Wait--Michigan Won?
Seriously—I got back from the Iowa-ISU game in Ames (I had a designated driver), turned on the TV, saw that Michigan was down 14-0, wrote it off, and put the Texas and Ohio State games on instead. Then I pass—err, fell asleep in my chair, woke up at midnight, and went to bed.
Guess I should have stayed awake.
Oh well—Irish tears are the sweetest spice, even when I miss watching Notre Dame implode in real time.
by Midnight Rambler on Sep 11, 2011 7:10 AM CDT reply actions
Don't you mean
The Michigan Bumblebees beat the Notre Dame Clovers?
by SpartyFever on Sep 11, 2011 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Was it just me....
…or did everyone else burst internal organs laughing at UM and ND “defenses” in the 2nd half?
I like our chances against both these teams.
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
MSU will be 4-4 and then finish 3-1. Not bad.
I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.
by Pinchy The Lobster on Sep 11, 2011 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions
They were brutal.
"You might as well appeal against the thunderstorm."
-William T. Sherman, the Battle of Atlanta
I heard....
…..Jacory Harris called Denard for armpunting advice
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
by Spartan D on Sep 11, 2011 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
I thought he would have called Terrelle Pryor...
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 11, 2011 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I didn't say "telegraph into coverage"
that was what Evridge did.
And screw you for mentioning that selfdestructive little ****.
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 11, 2011 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions
It's not hard to be right - and yet you manage to be so, so wrong
The Wolverines’ holes on defense are still so painfully evident, the Buckeyes looked flat-out bad against a MACrifice (not a shock to those of us that pay attention, considering who they’ll be missing for the previous two and next three contests), and the Hawkeyes appear to not actually be a contender in the B1G – a true culture shock, considering their top-flight quarterback, best wide receiver in school history, and best defensive lineman in years left for greener pastures.
And yet, State is still 8-4 (they’ll have three more losses than they allowed first downs today – but let’s ignore that because it was ‘just FAU’ and in the same breath revel in tOSU’s gutsy 5-point escape of a ‘good’ MAC team). The backpedaling that will inevitably occur over the course of the season is going to be laughable.
Who wants to bet the Wolverines will lose one, and more than likely two, of the ‘Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois’ crowd?
by cwel87 on Sep 11, 2011 7:50 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
What's really awesome, is the 3 teams will play in it.
I hope they all play at the same time, that would be interesting.
all 3 play on a triangle shaped field with three endzones
inexplicably, these teams still won’t be able to find the endzone
>Hoosier by birth, Boilermaker by the grace of God
>Don't cry, MSU - It's just a game...
by sea.of.white on Sep 13, 2011 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions
/calls timeout to figure out which endzone to go for
//punts anyway
"Hey Jay, what time is it?"
"9:30"
"AND IU STILL SUCKS!"
by Boiler Bandsman on Sep 14, 2011 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Sale?
All you need to do is send in 6 proof of purchase seals from any Rotel product and they send you a ticket.
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Sep 11, 2011 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't know what's worse
Having michigan in a BCS bowl, or not doing expanded projections. Wait, of course it’s Michigan in a BCS bowl.
Please point to one thing outside of Denard Robinson that leads you to believe that’s anything better than a 7-5 team.
by Milesgmsu09 on Sep 11, 2011 8:38 AM CDT reply actions 9 recs
Agreed x2
in the first half, Michigan did not have an offensive drive longer than 4 plays. I think that was true until almost the 4 quarter. Michigan has a lot to prove and beating a Notre Dame team that also has a lot to prove sure ain’t enough to project them into a BCS bowl.
"If you need a rah-rah speech at halftime, you’re playing the wrong sport." - Pat Angerer
Also
I can totally see Iowa in the Ticket City bowl. But at 6-6, not 7-5 (no, I don’t know which game their going to surprise everybody in to win that 6th game) and we’ll jump somebody just because the fans travel pretty well.
"If you need a rah-rah speech at halftime, you’re playing the wrong sport." - Pat Angerer
Also, did anyone watch VT vs ECU yesterday
The Hokies were lucky to get out of Greenville with the W yesterday. At this point I would put Boise in the title game over VT. Their win over Georgia looked much more convincing. And I’m no lover of the Broncos with their two game season.
Mich in a BCS bowl is a joke, right?
Granted only four teams in the B1G looked good yesterday. But scUM definitely wasn’t one of them. If they end up in a BCS bowl, I’ll eat my beloved Woody hat.
wow
so only douchebags from O$U still post idiotic things like that. Nice flag jerkoff.
by pbowers06 on Sep 11, 2011 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
You should love that flag...
You get your coaches and players from Ohio. In fact, if it weren’t for Ohio, you would be Austin Peay part II.
by biggy84 on Sep 11, 2011 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
pbowers has a point
I thought I wouldn’t have to worry about jackwagons using the scUM namecalling reference, in a serious manner (cue southbay buckeye retort in 3…2….1) on this site. For a minute I thought I was in an ESPiN chat room…
by GoWings2008 on Sep 12, 2011 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
It must be my flag that bugged you so much
Cause there were plenty of others in this thread who said the same thing (including one of your own). lol
It's a cool flag!
"You might as well appeal against the thunderstorm."
-William T. Sherman, the Battle of Atlanta
Add OSU to your list of “definitely”.
I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.
by Pinchy The Lobster on Sep 11, 2011 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions
As long as definitely
doesn’t mean getting beat by App St and getting throttled by a middle-of-the-pack Miss St team in a bowl game.
scUM?
Come on, this site should be better than that.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse
Yes, we expect a higher class of troll here.
"Hey Jay, what time is it?"
"9:30"
"AND IU STILL SUCKS!"
by Boiler Bandsman on Sep 11, 2011 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions
So we're being nice to each other now?
Cause I missed that memo. BTW, when did the new policy go into effect? (Must have been after the season started. Don’t recall any nice things being said this spring & summer.)
/scratching head
We don't have to be nice, but could we be clever?
Original maybe? How about creative? I like that there’s a lot of trash talk here, but “scUM” is just totally stupid. “O$U” is as well.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse
Agreed.
Name calling is akin to trolling, imo.
by GoWings2008 on Sep 12, 2011 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Not better
meatchicken? Heard it. Try something original. Like I said, simple name calling is…boring. Making fun of someone without name calling takes intelligence.
by GoWings2008 on Sep 12, 2011 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions
SARCASM FAIL
"You might as well appeal against the thunderstorm."
-William T. Sherman, the Battle of Atlanta
Apolgies
Southbay Buckeye is the only OSU fan whose sarcasm I’ve successfully deciphered.
by GoWings2008 on Sep 12, 2011 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
It's ok 88% of what I say is sarcasm anyway.
"You might as well appeal against the thunderstorm."
-William T. Sherman, the Battle of Atlanta
The thing is, they do have Denard Robinson. And he’s kind of incredibly awesome (when he’s not tossing awful interceptions. Which is some of the time). And I would say that I expect the Michigan defense to mature significantly throughout the course of the season- and they have three weeks to improve before the first real conference test. I don’t agree that they’re BCS good, but I don’t think that it’s impossible. Denard is pretty amazing, after all.
TCU won the 2011 Rose Bowl
Auburn won all the Tostitos.
Who do you think got the better deal?
http://www.frogsowar.com/
by HawkeyedFrog on Sep 11, 2011 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, everyone going with "they aren't good except Denard" makes me laugh
We do have Denard. If he gets hurt — which is obviously possible — then that’s another story, but he won the game last night. I really don’t think Notre Dame’s defense is terrible (as they shut down USF really well), it’s just that Denard was too much for them again. 7-5 is kind of a ridiculous prediction, we’d have to lose to OSU, UNL, MSU and we probably will, as well as who, NU, Iowa, or Illinois? I think UM is better than that.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse
Um no..,
…their defense is terrible. Or at least their CB’s are. And as you note, you can’t say “ND’s defense is good except for their CB’s”. That is, unless you want to retract your “except Denard” statement.
For one, I expect Illinois to have approximately 23,213,436 yards rushing against UM. Which tends to lead to wins.
"Hey Jay, what time is it?"
"9:30"
"AND IU STILL SUCKS!"
by Boiler Bandsman on Sep 11, 2011 11:48 PM CDT up reply actions
You don't shut down USF
That’s how USF plays – they could take a page out of Crisler’s book and punt on third down. USF plays hard defense and waits for you to screw up. ND’s front seven was decent enough last night, but their secondary was atrocious.
As for the “except denard” comment, it’s the same case as last year. Big Ten defenses, which are better than NDs, and will have more tape to work on, know how to shut down Denard. Your offense last night was heave ball into air pray wait for ND not to turn to ball success. You’re not going to get through the big ten with that. You have no other weapons on offense (i.e. decent RBs,). Just like the Uconn and ND games last year, you won the battle, but doomed yourself for the war. Last year it was force Denard to throw by stacking 8 in the box. This year it’s wait for denard to throw, spy on him, and just make sure your DBs aren’t morons.
Moreover, this is completely discounting two other areas of the games – your defense is certainly no better than last year. Yes you’ve forced a ton of TOs – congrats. Although, you did that against ND who can’t hold onto the ball (see USF with 5 tos), and by blitzing every single play. Mike Martin is a nice player, but your front four can’t get any sort of push, so you blitz. That’ll leave the back wide open. Up against a decent B1G QB (Scheelhouse, Vburg, Persa/Colter, Cousins…hell even McGloin) they’ll pick that apart all day. Not to mention, Wood went crazy last night. You have three players on defense, tops, that the top half of the B1G would put in their 2 deep. The path for success is pro style.
And Special Teams….yeahhhhh let’s not mention that. I still say 6-6 +/- 1 game.
Oh please
Notre Dame’s defense has been very good for seven of the eight quarters they played this year. If not for Denard, they would have won easily. There’s a reason that they were a top fifteen-type team (if not, then they were at least a consensus top 25 team) — they’re very good at moving the ball up and down the field, especially now that Rees is the guy, and they can’t stop shooting themselves in the foot. We were lucky to win that game. Besides, two games is way too small of a sample size to make any definitive conclusions. And if you think that our special teams is a disaster zone — kick coverage has been the only subpar special teams unit so far — and our defense is “certainly no better than last year”, you obviously have no idea what you’re talking about anyways.
There’s no way in hell Michigan goes 5-7 either.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse
I’m not sure I’d call their defense really good – they held you for a half. They didn’t adjust to the second half, and their preformance against USF was good at best. They didn’t force TOs, which with BJ Daniels is inexcusable ducks BJ Daniels pass. Finally, they still gave up 20+ points to an offensively challenged USF team. Their front 7 are fine, their secondary is terrible. But this isn’t a discussion about ND. This is a discussion about Michigan.
Special Teams: Your kicker is the guy who missed 4 of 5 FGs last year. He’s missed an XPT already. He is anything but proven. In fact, he hasn’t even attempted an FG this year. Hoke said they might have gone for the TD even if the pass wasn’t caught. Not a ton of faith there. Punter is averaging 40 yards on a punt. hard to tell, but we’ll give you the benefit of the doubt. Kick coverage has been subpar. Returs have been fine.
But here’s what you fail to address, and will be the undoing in B1G play. Where’s the defense? How are you going to stop UNL, NU, MSU, O$U?, and Illy Hell SDSU might give you a run for your money with HIllman.
You’re right – two games is way to small of a sample size. But you can’t conclude there’s no way in hell you go 5-7 by that same logic. Moreover, everyone knows you can’t make definitive conclusions – they’re called projections for a reason. The 10-2 projection is asinine because it assumes 2 wins of UNL, O$U and @MSU, let alone beating @illy, @iowa, @NU and home vs SDSU. My point is merely that your team is one dude heaving the ball up hoping the receivers come down with it. It worked last night – congrats. You got the win, can’t take that away. But to think that that is going to work time in and time out in the B1G is ludicrous.
I see insta losses with UNL, OSU, MSU. Insta wins with Purdue, Minny, and EMU. Of @Iowa, @Illy, @NU, and SDSU you’re telling me you think you’ll win three of those?I said 6-6 +/- one, but I’ll up it to 6.5 wins +/- 1. Shut down SDSU or NU and I’ll give you credit. Until then, I can’t shake the defense is the same players as last year, and your offense could be run by a 12 year old on XBL.
I’m going to stop talking about ND — they did hold USF to ~250 yards and only one offensive score but that’s pretty meaningless — because, yeah, this is about Michigan.
As for special teams, our kickoffs have been bad and the punts haven’t been great, but our All-B1G caliber punter will be back from a suspension for Big Ten play, and he kick off as well. I guess I can’t say anything about field goals because we haven’t seen any yet, but I understand why you and everyone else are skeptical — we are as well. Kick returning isn’t explosive with Smith back there, but he can shake a few tackles and get a couple yards. Gallon’s solid at KR and PR.
Where’s the defense? Hell if I know, but they can step it up when they need to (some of the time). Last year they blew it almost all of the time, but now they’re finally making some key stops and forcing some turnovers last year. They’re still getting shredded for a lot of yardage (and let’s be totally honest, Floyd is going to kill everyone) and giving up some big plays obviously, but there’s actually some positive things there. I wouldn’t have thought that Michigan could stop anyone on third-and-short but they did it a few times yesterday. I wouldn’t have thought that they could have created key turnovers, but now they’ve forced seven so far this year (which excludes ND’s DERP on the kickoff at the end). The defense is better. It’s not good, but it’s better. The offense is slightly worse, but Denard is going to make plays regardless (and hopefully most of them will be in our favor).
I’m not predicting 10-2. I’m not even predicting 9-3. Michigan will lose to MSU, OSU, UNL and beat Purdue, Minny and EMU, so that’s 5-3 off-hand. San Diego State isn’t as good as you think they are, plus they’ll be playing at 9:00 AM PST in Ann Arbor. They lost to Army this past weekend, and other than Lindley and Hillman, they don’t have any remotely decent MWC-level players. Michigan should fare relatively well, and I’m pretty positive we’ll take that one, so that’s 6-3. As for @Iowa, @Illinois and @Northwestern, I’m pretty confident in winning at least two of those. I wouldn’t be surprised with 1-2, I’d be a little surprised with 0-3, but all of those games could go either way. I’m not sold on NU, especially with an injured Persa, and that’s not going to be a tough road environment at all. ISU played pretty poorly yesterday (see Football Study Hall’s recap of that game) and still beat an Iowa team with a ton of questions. Illinois is a relative unknown but they probably aren’t a top-half Big Ten team. We could lose them all (6-6) or win them all (9-3). I’m confident that my initial season prediction — 7-5 or 8-4, with 7-5 more likely — will hold up, if only because the Big Ten is not looking good across the board, and the teams that are looking good really haven’t played anyone. Michigan hasn’t looked good, but nobody else has either, save for UW and MSU who haven’t played anybody that can be considered halfway decent.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse
You make it a lot harder to dislike you with a rational response
Or at least rational-ish
No disagreement with ST:
Offense: Comments went unanswered, so I’m going to guess you agree. No established running game, and a QB that doesn’t pass as much as he throws. Honestly, I don’t know why hoke is trying to run pro-style this year. Recruit pro style, and give Denard the ball outta shotgun and let him go. It’s what the team is built for, and if it kills denard, so be it – you got gardner behind him, and this is not a championship year, it’s a stop gap.
Even last night, first half was pro style, which = derp. Second half was denard playground and it worked. But that’s not going to work against competent B1G teams – it didn’t last year, it didn’t in 09, and it won’t this year.
Defense: Your defense looks a lot better than last year. You dropped the asinine 3-3-5 scheme. The problem is, your front 4 can’t get any penetration, so you have to blitz every time to get pressure on the QB. That allows for easy 7 and 8 yard completions – which can turn into 13 and 14 with a poor tackling secondary. If you don’t stack the box, RBs are going to have their way with you , or QBs will pick apart the secondary. To have a great defense, you need success at all 3 levels. Good = 2, Bad = 1, Terrible = 0. Right now, I’d say you’re somewhere between 1 and 0.
As for the record; SDSU beat army, but let’s give you the benefit of the doubt. Assuming no abortions on the field, that makes for 6-3. Iowa always plays terrible early, and @ISU. They’re not good this year, but they do have a big o-line, big d-line, and a good QB, and it’s @Iowa. I’d say you guys have a 1/3 chance. @NU isn’t a factor, but Kane Colter looks good, and remember that while persa is special, NU plugs in Qbs (remember Boucher and Kafka?). Their defense, while not good, is almost certainly better than yours. Let’s call that a toss up. Illy is an unknown, but they have a good QB, and great coordinators. Let’s give you the benefit of the doubt, and say 2/3 win. That’s 1.5 wins, meaning 7.5 wins. I gave you the benefit of the doubt, and if I were to place a bet, I’d be looking O/U at 6.5 wins. You’re right, 7-5 is probably your outcome.
But, and this is what started this whole internet slap fight, in your first post…well hell, I’ll just quote it:
Yeah, everyone going with “they aren’t good except Denard” makes me laugh
We do have Denard. If he gets hurt — which is obviously possible — then that’s another story, but he won the game last night. I really don’t think Notre Dame’s defense is terrible (as they shut down USF really well), it’s just that Denard was too much for them again. 7-5 is kind of a ridiculous prediction, we’d have to lose to OSU, UNL, MSU and we probably will, as well as who, NU, Iowa, or Illinois? I think UM is better than that.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse
7-5 isn’t ridiculous. It’s a fair prediction. Moreover, it’s what you predicted.
Oops. Guess it was the high (not literal high, of course) from last night that made me say that.
Offense: I think you’re right, but our week one starter didn’t play due to injury and is better than Shaw and Hopkins. Toussaint is a decent player. I also think the pro-style rhetoric is overblown — we run shotgun about 70% of the time. I said this comment last night at the game and it’s 100% true: Brady Hoke didn’t bring in a pro-style offense, he’s just running the spread and running it worse. Sure, the passing schemes are different, and yeah, there’s more under-center offense than before, but it’s so similar to last year, just not as good (although it could get better; game two in a new system and all). Disappointing, but Denard’s mercurial awesome/terrible plays make it deviate from what it really is with more of a standard deviation than most teams in CFB.
Defensively, it’s hard to argue. The D-line, our supposed strength, is worse than our LB and DB corps, and it needs to improve. The coaches cycle in players every couple plays, so it’s hard to establish anything. Admittedly, some of the bigger runs by Notre Dame were run into a zone blitz with linemen dropping, so it often looked worse than normal. The line stiffened on obvious running situations though. Floyd kicked our asses, but he’ll be the best receiver we’ll face all year; Cierre Wood is a pretty solid back, and Rees is Denard without the big-play ability. Secondary is okay, but depth is shaky just about everywhere. I’d say on a scale of 1 to 10, the d-line is about a two, the linebackers are maybe a six and the secondary is a four. The coaching is really pretty good, with some really high-risk, high-reward plays, which is frankly a better way to go with weak personnel than a xanax-drop-eight defense.
I’m still leaning towards 8-4 with the potential to be better. We’re iffy, but I don’t see why we can’t beat the likes of Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern and Ohio State. None of them have looked great. Neither have Nebraska or MSU.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse
So here's what I don't get
The offense seems to be, at best, equal to last year. You say it’s run worse, but players have another year of experience. Benefit of the doubt, it’s a wash.
Defense: Looks marginally better. Better sets, better coaching, but not a substantial improvement.
ST: Good punter returning, place kicking is a ?
It sounds like this is, at best, a slightly better team than last year. This team got soundly beat at home by Iowa last year, 3OTs with Illy at home, and surrendered less than 34 points in big ten play once*. Your hope is that through attrition at Illy and Iowa you win those games? To me that’s a huge leap of faith.
As for beating OSU, they’re still a gigantic team, that didn’t need Pryor or Tressel to whoop you last year. They’e playing without 8 on the 2 deep. By the end of BT play it would be foolish to assume they haven’t figured it out.
UNL hasn’t look great, but they have more talent in any level of defense than you do in your entire defense. Ignoring whether T-Magic + Burkhead will be good, it’s crazy to think that Crick won’t destroy your o-line, or that Alfonzo Dennard won’t turn to the ball.
As for MSU…I quote
Michigan hasn’t looked good, but nobody else has either, save for UW and MSU who haven’t played anybody that can be considered halfway decent.
Granted, it was FAU, but 1 first down and 48 total yards of offense is impressive, no matter the opponent.
Finally, it doesn’t matter if the other teams have looked great, you still have to show up. Were it not for a few fortunate turnovers by WMU, and inept OC that game could have been 21-17, and aside from 5 mins in the fourth where ND forgot how to play football, you’ve looked terrible.
7-5 I can see. 8-4 if something miraculous happens, but I feel a downward adjustment is far more likely than an upward adjustment.
*MSU could have named our score in that game. We ran 8 min drives in the 2nd half, but could have easily scored 40+
I'd say we're better than last year
and the defense is significantly better than last year, no matter which way you slice it. Our defense stepped up to give our offense a chance, last year we would have lost the game last night by five touchdowns. The offense is slightly worse. The special teams are probably going to be better, but they can’t be worse, especially in the kicking game. We’re better across the board, have better coaching across the board (as Borges << RR but Mattison >>>>>>>>>> GERG and special teams coaching is hopefully better), and our opponents are weaker across the board — Iowa and Illinois are worse than they were last year, and we replaced PSU, IU and UW with Minnesota, Northwestern and Nebraska.
As for FAU, I’d say that any positivity from that game should be taken with a huge grain of salt. State didn’t look too hot against YSU for a while.
I still think OSU and UNL are longshots, even at home. Crazy things can happen though.
Assuming the 6-3 mark, I’m thinking M will take two of three swing games.
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I can see 8 wins, I just don’t think it’s likely.
The defense’s coaching is much better, because he’s giving you a fighting chance, but it’s still not going to save you come B1G season. By blitzing seven each time it’s opening the game to be picked apart through the air or play action. It’s better than being picked apart by the deep ball and runs like last year, but the talent level still isn’t there.
Of the 4 swing games (SDSU, @Illy, @Iowa, @NU) I’d put the O/U of wins at 2.5. I was probably a little critical in my 6-6 initial call (I forgot what a cake schedule you have), but I still think 6 wins is more likely than 8.
We blitzed seven maybe once or twice last night
and did it a little against Western (most of the blitzes were zone drops and we loaded up on the side though).
But I think we’ve exhausted the topic; good show, we’ll see how it works out. Should be entertaining at least.
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I think Denard is way worse than everyone makes him out to be. He is king arm punt, thank god his receivers won nearly every jumpball.
11/24 with 3 interceptions is much more telling of a stat than the 4 tds and 300 yards. I mean seriously, what are the odds Jeremy Gallon ans Junior Hemingway continue to win jump balls against real secondaries?
"You might as well appeal against the thunderstorm."
-William T. Sherman, the Battle of Atlanta
Hemingway is a pretty good option
after all, he had several grabs against UI and Illinois. Gallon OTOH… : /
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Hemingway is a fine WR, the problem is that it takes a QB to get him the ball. Denard is throwing jump balls, if you have competent, let alone good, DBs, they’ll turn and make a play on the ball. Denard forces balls, he doesn’t check down his progressions. It’s why he throws so many ints. He’s a thrower, not a passer.
Hemmingway ios good, but he isn't win 5 jump balls a game good. That's not something Michigan should count on.
"You might as well appeal against the thunderstorm."
-William T. Sherman, the Battle of Atlanta
He won two last night on two attempts.
3 rec, 150+ yards, and he dropped a bad one. That’s about it. They aren’t going to throw him five a game.
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The point stands.
His first TD was clearly a jump ball and he had one other big play that was a jump ball. The success rate there isn’t high enough to count on as an offensive strategy.
"You might as well appeal against the thunderstorm."
-William T. Sherman, the Battle of Atlanta
Yeah, I'll concede that it's not a sustainable strategy
But Hemingway’s great at getting those jump balls.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
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I'll take the defensive secondaries of 8 of the 12 B1G teams vs. Denard's armpunts.
Sorry, but ND could replace their secondary with 4 blind retirees on hoverrounds and see an improvement
"Everyone who drinks is not a poet. Maybe some of us drink because we're not poets." - Arthur Bach
Denard Robinson is good against bad defenses
And by good, I mean he puts up Playstation numbers. But against good defenses that know how to contain, he’s bad…like in the first half of the Notre Dame game. And all of those TD passes he threw were just jump balls that a team with fundamental coaching ability turns into interceptions, and UM gets blown out.
Look, I don’t want to take away from Michigan’s win. DR leade two incredible drives late in the game to beat Notre Dame, but against good defenses, he’ll struggle mightily, and there’s nothing I saw yesterday in his throwing mechanics, Michigan’s lack of a running game outside of Denard, or their poor defense that makes me believe otherwise.
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We've seen this show before
’09 UM starts out undefeated in non-conference, goes 1-7 in B1G play. ’10 UM starts out 5-0, goes 2-5 down the stretch.
Schadenfreude ist die schoenste Freude
Yes, Michigan could go 10-2
And Northwestern could go 12-0, and I could divorce my wife to marry cohabitate with Eva Mendes.
Here on Earth, however, the Wolverines will not go 10-2, nor will the Cats go 12-0. And I’ll have to be satisfied watching Once Upon A Time in Mexico again.
by buckyor on Sep 11, 2011 9:09 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs
BamaHawkeye
Buys this stuff in barrel form
by SpartyFever on Sep 11, 2011 10:10 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I like that Illinois is somehow considered an automatic win for Michigan and now going to the Detroit Bowl after starting a strong 2-0.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
I wont argue that Michigan is going to beat Illinois this year if you give up the argument that beating an FCS team and a Sun Belt team is a strong 2-0 start. Unless, of course, that is what Illinois faithful consider strong competition.
At least we've been routing our crappy opponents.
Half the conference can’t make that same boast.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
If I may intercede....UM has a bad defense. Illinois has somewhere just short of your typical Wisconsin running game.
That does not add up well for the Wolverines.
"Hey Jay, what time is it?"
"9:30"
"AND IU STILL SUCKS!"
by Boiler Bandsman on Sep 11, 2011 11:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Illinois has that same running game without Leshoure?
not sure if serious.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
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The offensive line is still there.
Ford, Pollard, and Young are all fairly good. Zook has done a great job of moving on to the next HB.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
I'll admit that I'm not very familiar with Illinois's personnel across the board.
I’ll take your word for it, but Leshoure is leaving some huge shoes to fill. Scheelhaase is also a decent running option though.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
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LeShoure had huge shoes to fill himself.
He was a 3-star recruit who went from a 734 yard season to a school record 1,697 in a year. I’m not saying anyone on this team is even close to that good, but then again I wouldn’t have predicted Mikel to make me forget about Rashard Mendenhall either.
"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"
Exactly.
Ever since the Rose Bowl season, U of I has quietly had one o f the best O-lines in the B1G. I remember screaming at the TV during that timeout against OSU in 07, cause I KNEW the o-line was gonna get a push.
"Hey Jay, what time is it?"
"9:30"
"AND IU STILL SUCKS!"
by Boiler Bandsman on Sep 14, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Michigan in the Orange Bowl?
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by Alex Cook on Sep 11, 2011 11:23 AM CDT reply actions 4 recs
People seem to be taking out their frustrations from yesterday out on these bowl projections
I don’t see UM in the BCS either, but it’s the second week. A lot could happen.
I'm a Michigan fan and the thought of M in a BCS game scares the shit out of me.
There’s like a 1 in 100 chance maybe.
I tweet here: @thewhitetiger16
I blog here: The Wolverine Blog
I contribute here: BT Powerhouse
Did you mix the two Michigan schools up?
Also, if Nebraska loses in the B1G championship game, I would guess they go.
Bama is envisioning a Mizzou-like scenario from the Big 12 a few years back. Mizzou won the head to head, got another loss due to championship game, Kansas got the BCS spot.
TCU won the 2011 Rose Bowl
Auburn won all the Tostitos.
Who do you think got the better deal?
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by HawkeyedFrog on Sep 11, 2011 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly
It’s not that the B1G won’t put two teams in the BCS, it’s just that it’s going to be rare that the loser of the B1G Title Game is going to be one of them. There will be exceptions (think of the Alabama-Florida SEC title games 2 and 3 years ago), but more likely a 1 or 2 loss non-champion will be selected over the losing division winner.
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by Bama Hawkeye on Sep 12, 2011 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions
"Northwestern gets to 9 wins"
Whoa whoa whoa. Stop right there. Northwestern is the team you’re supposed to talk down and underestimate. None of this Northwestern-may-be-pretty-good stuff, unless you’re Chad. I just don’t know what to do with this grudging respect and all. I mean, what happened to the “j” out front? What am I supposed to be outraged about?
Bennett and Rittenberg still have the ‘Cats in the Pizza Bowl. That’s more like it.
Northwestern is going to take Michigan's place in the Orange Bowl.
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Sep 11, 2011 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Week 2--The Traditional Christian Hymns Evaluation
Teams listed in alphabetical order
Blessed Assurance: Michigan State, Nebraska and Wisconsin: Each of these teams, barring a 2010 Purdue-caliber onslaught of injuries, should be headed to a January 1 if not BCS bowl.
And Can It Be That I Should Gain? (actually Amazing Love): Illinois, Michigan, Northwestern: Each of the bowl-potential teams should feel better about their prospects than they did last Friday.
Are Ye Able?: Iowa, Ohio State and Penn State: The first two, especially, lost some ground last weekend.
Amazing Grace: Indiana, Minnesota and Purdue: …is the only thing which will save these three wretched teams.
by Danwesley Meyer on Sep 12, 2011 9:04 AM CDT reply actions
So wait a second, since Bama’s foolish prediction of the Irish in a BCS bowl goes by the wayside, he now picks …. Michigan? Wow Bama, are you trying to drive traffic here or what?
Congrats to the Wolfies …. but if they win 10 games, Denard wins the Heisman and half of the B1G offenses become Purdue’d.
I picked them to win 5 games initially, but with a win vs ND, they can make 6, possibly 7, but I cant see that offense and defense holding up on the road for all those road B1G matchups.
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