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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK EIGHT

Sorry for the tardiness, y'all. I've been exhausted this week. Not because of work, but because I've spent my evenings staying up late. So many shenanigans, you wouldn't believe. Or MATLAB programming, one of those. I may need to re-consider my late night activities and their relative "wild-ness."

Also, there's lots of cute girls at work, so that tends to keep me up as... [ahem]. Moving on!

I make a quick draft of these posts on Sunday (so I don't have much to do come mid-week). Because of that, the Tuesday night game between North Texas and LouisianaLafayette is not factored in here. It probably doesn't matter, but just a FYI.

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 Alabama SEC 6-0 1.497 1.774 4 0.277 1
2 8 Oklahoma B12 4-1 1.232 1.807 3 0.576 12
3 6 FloridaState ACC 6-1 1.079 1.462 16 0.383 3
4 5 Oregon Pac-12 6-0 1.046 1.916 2 0.870 54
5 12 TexasTech B12 5-1 1.007 1.499 14 0.492 6
6 13 KansasState B12 6-0 1.000 1.648 9 0.648 22
7 3 TexasAM SEC 5-1 0.998 1.638 10 0.640 21
8 4 SouthCarolina SEC 6-1 0.968 1.404 21 0.436 5
9 10 NotreDame Ind. 6-0 0.924 1.235 31 0.311 2
10 2 OklahomaState B12 3-2 0.884 1.658 7 0.774 41
11 17 Michigan B10 4-2 0.834 1.415 19 0.580 13
12 7 Texas B12 4-2 0.828 1.622 12 0.794 44
13 11 Florida SEC 6-0 0.815 1.225 34 0.410 4
14 38 OregonState Pac-12 5-0 0.772 1.360 23 0.589 14
15 9 Georgia SEC 5-1 0.769 1.657 8 0.888 57
16 19 IowaState B12 4-2 0.736 1.228 32 0.492 7
17 14 ArizonaState Pac-12 5-1 0.727 1.332 26 0.604 17
18 15 NorthCarolina ACC 5-2 0.721 1.337 25 0.617 19
19 20 Clemson ACC 5-1 0.702 1.685 6 0.983 74
20 23 Nebraska B10 4-2 0.676 1.602 13 0.926 64
21 16 OhioState B10 7-0 0.668 1.454 17 0.786 42
22 25 Stanford Pac-12 4-2 0.653 1.277 28 0.624 20
23 24 Arizona Pac-12 3-3 0.652 1.488 15 0.836 50
24 18 Tennessee SEC 3-3 0.648 1.626 11 0.978 72
25 27 TCU B12 5-1 0.597 1.097 54 0.500 8

And the rest of the Big Ten:

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
31 36 PennState B10 4-2 0.474 1.078 59 0.604 16
42 44 Northwestern B10 6-1 0.340 1.215 36 0.875 55
50 34 Purdue B10 3-3 0.307 1.225 33 0.918 61
53 52 MichiganState B10 4-3 0.245 0.747 105 0.502 9
57 71 Indiana B10 2-4 0.163 1.368 22 1.205 99
59 65 Wisconsin B10 5-2 0.155 0.989 74 0.834 49
62 66 Iowa B10 4-2 0.109 0.863 88 0.754 37
74 75 Minnesota B10 4-2 -0.018 0.717 110 0.735 32
94 82 Illinois B10 2-5 -0.199 0.655 114 0.854 52

Some thoughts:

In a stunning development, the Big 12 is now better rated than the SEC. I'm not being sarcastic here, the SEC usually runs away with this. But with Oklahoma and Texas Tech residing at #2 and #5, and Kansas State not too far behind, the Big 12 is pretty clearly ahead of the SEC (except Alabama). Hell, the SEC is even getting the benefit of Texas A&M as well, which should really be split half-and-half between them.

This is partly a way for me to segue into another points: the SEC is solid (South Carolina and Florida are pleasant surprises for their levels of performance), but only Alabama is exceptional. F(ri)cking Saban and his "Process." On the plus side, at least we can point to the SEC's best team as have dirty, dirty players:

Guess Michigan State and Alabama have a lot in common. (HINT: I'm definitely just referring to Nick Saban)

When the heck did Oklahoma get an offense? A fairly large reason for my skepticism on Oklahoma before the season was due to how much their offense fell off last season when Ryan Broyles went out, as well as Landry Jones still being their quarterback. Less than stellar games against UTEP and Kansas State (they rated just about average offensively for those two games) did nothing to soften those doubts.

But over the last two weeks Oklahoma has simply destroyed two solid defenses in Texas Tech (#6 AdjDef) and Texas (#44 AdjDef)... well in Texas' case, a defense that was supposed to be solid. I don't know if I can live in a world where Landry Jones is having legitimate success as a quarterback. Oklahoma plays Kansas this week (and well, the Big 12 the rest of the year), so we may not get a better picture on this until bowl season. Meh.

Thanks Holgo! And here I was worried about West Virginia screwing with my rankings. West Virginia's crappy defense finally caught up to them, though I'm going to make a criticism of their offense right now, which really didn't do much last Saturday.

I have the West Virginia offense only ranked 18th, which does seem pretty low (F/+ has them 5th, for example). The things is, the Big 12 makes everyone looks good offensively. Examples:

West Virginia scored 31 on Maryland. Connecticut scored 24 (non-con, but still a good example).

West Virginia scored 70 on Baylor. TCU scored 49 (without their starting QB).

West Virginia scored 48 on Texas. Oklahoma scored 63.

This isn't to say West Virginia has a bad offense, just that it may be getting propped up a bit more than it deserves by whatever the Big 12 calls defense. Combined with a definitely bad defense, and I'm glad that they finally fell down.

Colorado is 123rd. Idaho and Massachusetts are 124th and 125th, respectively. I don't bet actual money-things, but I did take Arizona State last Thursday despite the large spread. Happy to say I came out on top with that one.

PICKS TIME

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
#1 Alabama Tennessee Alabama 95%
#2 Oregon ArizonaState Oregon 72%
#3 Florida #9 SouthCarolina SouthCarolina 62%
#4 KansasState #17 WestVirginia KansasState 88%
#5 NotreDame BYU NotreDame 86%
#6 LSU #20 TexasAM TexasAM 79%
#7 OhioState Purdue OhioState 75%
#8 OregonState Utah OregonState 78%
#10 Oklahoma Kansas Oklahoma 99%
#11 USC Colorado USC 99%
#12 FloridaState Miami FloridaState 99%
#13 Georgia Kentucky Georgia 97%
#14 Clemson VirginiaTech Clemson 63%
#15 MississippiState MiddleTennessee MississippiState 94%
#16 Louisville SouthFlorida Louisville 73%
#18 TexasTech TCU TexasTech 78%
#19 Rutgers Temple Rutgers 75%
#21 Cincinnati Toledo Cincinnati 88%
#22 Stanford California Stanford 83%
#23 Michigan MichiganState Michigan 86%
#24 BoiseState UNLV BoiseState 91%

And the rest of the Big Ten:

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
Indiana Navy Indiana 67%
Iowa PennState PennState 75%
Minnesota Wisconsin Wisconsin 63%
Nebraska Northwestern Nebraska 73%

I took New Mexico over Air Force for Stupid Upsets. Finger's crossed! Also, I better start working my way back up the OTE Predictions leaderboard. I was very upset at LSU victory last Saturday night.

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