Since I'm home from work early - and because I plan on making pancakes for dinner tomorrow - this post is happening today. Aren't you all so excited? I know I am! I mean... pancakes. That's really all you need.
In other news, I'm beyond over-joyed that Wisconsin kept the Axe for the 1000th 9th straight year. Ideally they continue on this pace, and I can see Wisconsin finally pass Minnesota in the all-time standings in a few years. In the meantime, I'm going to be terrified of Michigan State for the next week, despite their incompetent offense.
TOP 25 AND BIG TEN
| Rank | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Alabama | SEC | 7-0 | 1.410 | 1.686 | 5 | 0.276 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oklahoma | B12 | 5-1 | 1.165 | 1.689 | 4 | 0.524 | 10 |
| 3 | 4 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 7-0 | 1.113 | 1.936 | 1 | 0.823 | 44 |
| 4 | 13 | Florida | SEC | 7-0 | 1.106 | 1.513 | 16 | 0.407 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | FloridaState | ACC | 7-1 | 1.033 | 1.452 | 17 | 0.419 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | KansasState | B12 | 7-0 | 1.028 | 1.642 | 10 | 0.615 | 19 |
| 7 | 5 | TexasTech | B12 | 6-1 | 1.003 | 1.614 | 11 | 0.611 | 18 |
| 8 | 10 | OklahomaState | B12 | 4-2 | 0.966 | 1.646 | 8 | 0.681 | 28 |
| 9 | 9 | NotreDame | Ind. | 7-0 | 0.926 | 1.266 | 29 | 0.340 | 2 |
| 10 | 7 | TexasAM | SEC | 5-2 | 0.907 | 1.545 | 13 | 0.637 | 21 |
| 11 | 23 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 4-3 | 0.907 | 1.751 | 3 | 0.844 | 51 |
| 12 | 8 | SouthCarolina | SEC | 6-2 | 0.803 | 1.333 | 23 | 0.529 | 11 |
| 13 | 14 | OregonState | Pac-12 | 6-0 | 0.765 | 1.278 | 26 | 0.513 | 8 |
| 14 | 12 | Texas | B12 | 5-2 | 0.764 | 1.613 | 12 | 0.849 | 54 |
| 15 | 11 | Michigan | B10 | 5-2 | 0.747 | 1.349 | 22 | 0.602 | 16 |
| 16 | 19 | Clemson | ACC | 6-1 | 0.717 | 1.647 | 7 | 0.929 | 62 |
| 17 | 22 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 5-2 | 0.682 | 1.199 | 37 | 0.517 | 9 |
| 18 | 25 | TCU | B12 | 5-2 | 0.672 | 1.240 | 33 | 0.568 | 13 |
| 19 | 24 | Tennessee | SEC | 3-4 | 0.666 | 1.666 | 6 | 0.999 | 73 |
| 20 | 27 | MississippiState | SEC | 7-0 | 0.645 | 1.232 | 35 | 0.586 | 15 |
| 21 | 17 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | 5-2 | 0.638 | 1.307 | 24 | 0.669 | 25 |
| 22 | 15 | Georgia | SEC | 6-1 | 0.625 | 1.538 | 14 | 0.913 | 58 |
| 23 | 18 | NorthCarolina | ACC | 5-3 | 0.594 | 1.268 | 28 | 0.674 | 27 |
| 24 | 20 | Nebraska | B10 | 5-2 | 0.589 | 1.524 | 15 | 0.935 | 63 |
| 25 | 30 | USC | Pac-12 | 6-1 | 0.588 | 1.236 | 34 | 0.649 | 23 |
And the rest of the Big Ten:
| Rank | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 21 | OhioState | B10 | 8-0 | 0.574 | 1.369 | 20 | 0.794 | 38 |
| 27 | 31 | PennState | B10 | 5-2 | 0.553 | 1.180 | 42 | 0.627 | 20 |
| 37 | 42 | Northwestern | B10 | 6-2 | 0.348 | 1.169 | 43 | 0.821 | 43 |
| 38 | 50 | Purdue | B10 | 3-4 | 0.322 | 1.155 | 46 | 0.833 | 46 |
| 40 | 59 | Wisconsin | B10 | 6-2 | 0.316 | 1.130 | 52 | 0.815 | 41 |
| 54 | 53 | MichiganState | B10 | 4-4 | 0.245 | 0.719 | 106 | 0.474 | 6 |
| 64 | 57 | Indiana | B10 | 2-5 | 0.087 | 1.397 | 18 | 1.310 | 107 |
| 70 | 62 | Iowa | B10 | 4-3 | 0.003 | 0.842 | 89 | 0.839 | 49 |
| 83 | 74 | Minnesota | B10 | 4-3 | -0.122 | 0.691 | 111 | 0.813 | 40 |
| 97 | 94 | Illinois | B10 | 2-5 | -0.229 | 0.619 | 117 | 0.848 | 53 |
Some thoughts:
Alabama is terrifying. I don't think I've said much about the Crimson Tide, mostly because
a) everyone knows they're really good, and
b) Nick Saban's teams are super boring.
However, that changes now because their defensive rating is obscene. I mean, it was obscene before, but that was early in the season which is subject to outliers. It's Week Nine already, and Alabama is still sitting there with a AdjDef of under 0.28 (remember, lower is better). To give that context, I've got continuous rankings using this same formula going back to 1990. 2012 Alabama is better than every single one. And less you think that's just a quirk of my numbers, F/+ has them rated at +40% in Def F/+, which I'm pretty sure is enough on its own to rate out better than every team in their database. It's insane.
Now, my numbers on them are going to get a bit worse still, as the Tide still have two shutouts from Weeks 2 & 3 boosting them. But plenty of teams pitch shut-outs every season. None of them come close to matching this year's Tide.
So last week some people had been asking about considering recent trends when ranking teams. Wisconsin is obviously not the same team as started the season, and the same goes for Purdue (in a bad way).
To that end I did something up quick, weighting each game 10% more than the last. This was quick and dirty, so feel free to criticize my math. For your consideration:
| Rank | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | SEC | 7-0 | 1.363 |
| 2 | Oklahoma | B12 | 5-1 | 1.240 |
| 3 | Florida | SEC | 7-0 | 1.191 |
| 4 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 7-0 | 1.151 |
| 5 | KansasState | B12 | 7-0 | 1.057 |
| 6 | TexasTech | B12 | 6-1 | 1.007 |
| 7 | FloridaState | ACC | 7-1 | 0.966 |
| 8 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 4-3 | 0.956 |
| 9 | OklahomaState | B12 | 4-2 | 0.938 |
| 10 | NotreDame | Ind. | 7-0 | 0.883 |
| 11 | TexasAM | SEC | 5-2 | 0.848 |
| 12 | OregonState | Pac-12 | 6-0 | 0.807 |
| 13 | Michigan | B10 | 5-2 | 0.776 |
| 14 | SouthCarolina | SEC | 6-2 | 0.760 |
| 15 | Clemson | ACC | 6-1 | 0.756 |
| 16 | Texas | B12 | 5-2 | 0.702 |
| 17 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 5-2 | 0.696 |
| 18 | TCU | B12 | 5-2 | 0.675 |
| 19 | MississippiState | SEC | 7-0 | 0.670 |
| 20 | Tennessee | SEC | 3-4 | 0.669 |
| 21 | PennState | B10 | 5-2 | 0.634 |
| 22 | USC | Pac-12 | 6-1 | 0.594 |
| 23 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | 5-2 | 0.588 |
| 24 | Nebraska | B10 | 5-2 | 0.571 |
| 25 | Georgia | SEC | 6-1 | 0.570 |
Big Ten teams follow
| Rank | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | OhioState | B10 | 8-0 | 0.542 |
| 33 | Wisconsin | B10 | 6-2 | 0.428 |
| 38 | Northwestern | B10 | 6-2 | 0.347 |
| 50 | Purdue | B10 | 3-4 | 0.249 |
| 54 | MichiganState | B10 | 4-4 | 0.217 |
| 63 | Indiana | B10 | 2-5 | 0.117 |
| 70 | Iowa | B10 | 4-3 | 0.000 |
| 89 | Minnesota | B10 | 4-3 | -0.165 |
| 99 | Illinois | B10 | 2-5 | -0.313 |
SO MANY TABLES. Sorry about that... Anyway, it really doesn't make a huge difference, as there is still half the season to go. As far as Big Ten teams go, Wisconsin (+7) and Penn State (+6) get a big lift, while Purdue (-12) and Minnesota (-6) are regressing. In terms of visual media:
Wisconsin
Purdue
Colorado is LAWL-some. But just how bad are they? Unfortunately, not nearly as bad as I would like. For the purposes of this discussion, I'm just going to consider bad BCS (or equivalent) conference teams. Also, considering how the college football changes over time, I've been rating teams based on standard deviations above (or in this case, below) the mean (so Z-score). It helps reduce the difference between today's teams and those of the past. (Also, this is what Bill Connelly did for one of his Football Outsiders pieces, and so I'm shamelessly copying his method). Going back to 1990... SURPRISE! The Big East takes home the crown. Multiple times. We have:
1993 Temple (1-10), 2.59 deviations below the mean.
1997 Rutgers (0-11), 2.19 deviations below the mean.
2008 Washington State (2-11), 1.90 deviations below the mean
2012 Colorado (1-6), 1.89 deviations below the mean
Now, Colorado isn't catching the Big East teams (seriously, those teams were really bad), but I'd say they have a strong shot at passing up Washington State. Ironic that they may end up being the only team Colorado is victorious against.
Oh yeah, the Buffaloes are ranked 124th this year. Massachusetts is 125th.
PICKS TIME!
| Team | Opponent | Winner | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Alabama | #13 MississippiState | Alabama | 93% |
| #2 Oregon | Colorado | Oregon | 99% |
| #3 Florida | #12 Georgia | Florida | 81% |
| #4 KansasState | #15 TexasTech | KansasState | 52% |
| #5 NotreDame | #8 Oklahoma | Oklahoma | 67% |
| #7 OregonState | Washington | OregonState | 93% |
| #9 OhioState | PennState | OhioState | 52% |
| #10 USC | Arizona | Arizona | 72% |
| #11 FloridaState | Duke | FloridaState | 97% |
| #14 Clemson | WakeForest | Clemson | 99% |
| #16 Louisville | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | 50% |
| #17 SouthCarolina | Tennessee | SouthCarolina | 60% |
| #18 Rutgers | KentState | Rutgers | 88% |
| #19 Stanford | WashingtonState | Stanford | 99% |
| #20 Michigan | Nebraska | Michigan | 62% |
| #21 BoiseState | Wyoming | BoiseState | 97% |
| #22 TexasAM | Auburn | TexasAM | 98% |
| #23 Ohio | MiamiOH | Ohio | 85% |
| #24 LouisianaTech | NewMexicoState | LouisianaTech | 99% |
And the rest of the Big Ten:
| Team | Opponent | Winner | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | Indiana | Indiana | 72% |
| Iowa | Northwestern | Northwestern | 74% |
| MichiganState | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 56% |
| Minnesota | Purdue | Purdue | 79% |
CURSES. We've reached that point in the season where my numbers are starting to align with Vegas. This means no big upsets for me to try :(
Seeing as I've gone 0-fer since Week One, though this may not be a bad thing. Fvck it. Tennessee over South Carolina is my Stupid Upset Pick
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