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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK TEN
On the bright side: I didn't spend money to go to our homecoming game. Saved a nice $60 and instead got to sit on my couch and drown my sorrows in beer. Good decisions all around!
TOP 25 AND BIG TEN
| Rank | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Alabama | SEC | 8-0 | 1.526 | 1.797 | 2 | 0.271 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | KansasState | B12 | 8-0 | 1.096 | 1.721 | 4 | 0.625 | 19 |
| 3 | 5 | FloridaState | ACC | 8-1 | 1.064 | 1.455 | 17 | 0.391 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 8-0 | 1.050 | 1.830 | 1 | 0.780 | 35 |
| 5 | 2 | Oklahoma | B12 | 5-2 | 1.025 | 1.602 | 10 | 0.576 | 11 |
| 6 | 9 | NotreDame | Ind. | 8-0 | 0.996 | 1.318 | 21 | 0.322 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | OklahomaState | B12 | 5-2 | 0.966 | 1.623 | 9 | 0.657 | 21 |
| 8 | 10 | TexasAM | SEC | 6-2 | 0.958 | 1.694 | 7 | 0.736 | 27 |
| 9 | 4 | Florida | SEC | 7-1 | 0.940 | 1.338 | 20 | 0.398 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 5-3 | 0.886 | 1.779 | 3 | 0.893 | 58 |
| 11 | 7 | TexasTech | B12 | 6-2 | 0.848 | 1.536 | 13 | 0.687 | 25 |
| 12 | 22 | Georgia | SEC | 7-1 | 0.740 | 1.559 | 12 | 0.819 | 44 |
| 13 | 16 | Clemson | ACC | 7-1 | 0.737 | 1.627 | 8 | 0.889 | 56 |
| 14 | 12 | SouthCarolina | SEC | 7-2 | 0.729 | 1.312 | 22 | 0.583 | 13 |
| 15 | 26 | OhioState | B10 | 9-0 | 0.663 | 1.458 | 16 | 0.795 | 36 |
| 16 | 19 | Tennessee | SEC | 3-5 | 0.654 | 1.694 | 6 | 1.041 | 78 |
| 17 | 24 | Nebraska | B10 | 6-2 | 0.651 | 1.493 | 14 | 0.842 | 49 |
| 18 | 13 | OregonState | Pac-12 | 6-1 | 0.637 | 1.179 | 37 | 0.542 | 8 |
| 19 | 21 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | 5-3 | 0.622 | 1.374 | 18 | 0.752 | 31 |
| 20 | 14 | Texas | B12 | 6-2 | 0.607 | 1.474 | 15 | 0.867 | 53 |
| 21 | 15 | Michigan | B10 | 5-3 | 0.599 | 1.186 | 35 | 0.587 | 15 |
| 22 | 23 | NorthCarolina | ACC | 6-3 | 0.568 | 1.311 | 23 | 0.742 | 29 |
| 23 | 25 | USC | Pac-12 | 6-2 | 0.567 | 1.227 | 30 | 0.659 | 22 |
| 24 | 17 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 6-2 | 0.556 | 1.105 | 54 | 0.549 | 10 |
| 25 | 20 | MississippiState | SEC | 7-1 | 0.546 | 1.158 | 41 | 0.611 | 17 |
And the rest of the Big Ten:
| Rank | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 27 | PennState | B10 | 5-3 | 0.460 | 1.127 | 47 | 0.667 | 23 |
| 36 | 37 | Northwestern | B10 | 7-2 | 0.378 | 1.180 | 36 | 0.802 | 39 |
| 43 | 40 | Wisconsin | B10 | 6-3 | 0.302 | 1.057 | 61 | 0.755 | 32 |
| 48 | 54 | MichiganState | B10 | 5-4 | 0.255 | 0.720 | 104 | 0.465 | 5 |
| 57 | 38 | Purdue | B10 | 3-5 | 0.154 | 1.171 | 38 | 1.017 | 73 |
| 58 | 64 | Indiana | B10 | 3-5 | 0.137 | 1.362 | 19 | 1.225 | 100 |
| 71 | 70 | Iowa | B10 | 4-4 | -0.017 | 0.818 | 92 | 0.835 | 48 |
| 73 | 83 | Minnesota | B10 | 5-3 | -0.025 | 0.801 | 94 | 0.826 | 46 |
| 96 | 97 | Illinois | B10 | 2-6 | -0.304 | 0.593 | 120 | 0.897 | 59 |
Some thoughts...
Okay, I'm sorry about Tennessee. The thing is, they've lost to:
Florida (7-1)
Georgia (7-1)
Mississippi State (7-1)
Alabama (8-0)
South Carolina (7-2)
Combined record? 36-5.
I don't like it, but that's why they rank so high. I'm a little more egregious than most people, but even the actual professionals at Football Outsiders have them 30th. Yes, you'd expect them to at least pull out one of those to actually be worthy of a ranking of 16th, but sometimes luck just doesn't fall your way. This is the same coach that lost a bowl game because the other team had like 15 guys on the field. So it really fits him.
Danny O'Brien makes me sad and angry. Picture time! Can you guess what the point of this plot is?
Wisconsin Offense 2012
(1) This is your offense on Danny O'Brien
(2) This is your offense on Joel Stave/Danny O'Brien
(3) This is your offense on Joel Stave
I am legitimately afraid of losing to Indiana, because Danny O'Brien is some sort of offense vampire. I know Michigan State is not exactly the worst defense out there, but we scored 3 pts in the second half. Off of a turnover, on a drive where we lost yards. Ugh...
Almost certainly in-accurate BCS bowl guesses!
BCS Championship: Alabama vs Kansas State
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs Clemson
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Rutgers
I don't know. I think Oklahoma State will beat Oklahoma, but I also think they'll lose to Kansas State. So that would pretty much keep both Okie's out of the running for Fiesta Bowl replacement. Notre Dame would be too attractive to pass up, but then they are going to be left with Boise State or Clemson. Don't know. This is much harder than I thought it would be when I started.
PICKS TIME!
For the record, I did terrible last week in the OTE College Pick'Em, garnering 22 pts. Using weighted rankings to make picks, I would've gotten... 16 pts. Yay for being terrible at this!
| Team | Opponent | Winner | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Alabama | #5 LSU | Alabama | 99% |
| #2 KansasState | #24 OklahomaState | KansasState | 60% |
| #3 NotreDame | Pittsburgh | NotreDame | 98% |
| #4 Oregon | #17USC | Oregon | 81% |
| #6 Georgia | Mississippi | Georgia | 77% |
| #7 Florida | Missouri | Florida | 87% |
| #10 Louisville | Temple | Louisville | 88% |
| #11 OregonState | ArizonaState | OregonState | 51% |
| #12 Oklahoma | IowaState | Oklahoma | 86% |
| #13 Clemson | Duke | Clemson | 93% |
| #14 Stanford | Colorado | Stanford | 99% |
| #15 MississippiState | #16 TexasAM | TexasAM | 78% |
| #18 TexasTech | #23 Texas | TexasTech | 67% |
| #19 BoiseState | SanDiegoState | BoiseState | 78% |
| #20 Nebraska | MichiganState | Nebraska | 77% |
| #21 WestVirginia | TCU | TCU | 75% |
| #22 Arizona | UCLA | Arizona | 81% |
| #25 LouisianaTech | UTSA | LouisianaTech | 82% |
And the rest of the Big Ten:
| Team | Opponent | Winner | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | Iowa | Indiana | 62% |
| Michigan | Minnesota | Michigan | 88% |
| PennState | Purdue | PennState | 72% |
| Illinois | OhioState | OhioState | 98% |
I'm not even going to post my Stupid Upset Pick of the week anymore, because I'm wrong every time. It's like Vegas knows more than me or something!
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