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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK TEN

On the bright side: I didn't spend money to go to our homecoming game. Saved a nice $60 and instead got to sit on my couch and drown my sorrows in beer. Good decisions all around!

TOP 25 AND BIG TEN

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 Alabama SEC 8-0 1.526 1.797 2 0.271 1
2 6 KansasState B12 8-0 1.096 1.721 4 0.625 19
3 5 FloridaState ACC 8-1 1.064 1.455 17 0.391 3
4 3 Oregon Pac-12 8-0 1.050 1.830 1 0.780 35
5 2 Oklahoma B12 5-2 1.025 1.602 10 0.576 11
6 9 NotreDame Ind. 8-0 0.996 1.318 21 0.322 2
7 8 OklahomaState B12 5-2 0.966 1.623 9 0.657 21
8 10 TexasAM SEC 6-2 0.958 1.694 7 0.736 27
9 4 Florida SEC 7-1 0.940 1.338 20 0.398 4
10 11 Arizona Pac-12 5-3 0.886 1.779 3 0.893 58
11 7 TexasTech B12 6-2 0.848 1.536 13 0.687 25
12 22 Georgia SEC 7-1 0.740 1.559 12 0.819 44
13 16 Clemson ACC 7-1 0.737 1.627 8 0.889 56
14 12 SouthCarolina SEC 7-2 0.729 1.312 22 0.583 13
15 26 OhioState B10 9-0 0.663 1.458 16 0.795 36
16 19 Tennessee SEC 3-5 0.654 1.694 6 1.041 78
17 24 Nebraska B10 6-2 0.651 1.493 14 0.842 49
18 13 OregonState Pac-12 6-1 0.637 1.179 37 0.542 8
19 21 ArizonaState Pac-12 5-3 0.622 1.374 18 0.752 31
20 14 Texas B12 6-2 0.607 1.474 15 0.867 53
21 15 Michigan B10 5-3 0.599 1.186 35 0.587 15
22 23 NorthCarolina ACC 6-3 0.568 1.311 23 0.742 29
23 25 USC Pac-12 6-2 0.567 1.227 30 0.659 22
24 17 Stanford Pac-12 6-2 0.556 1.105 54 0.549 10
25 20 MississippiState SEC 7-1 0.546 1.158 41 0.611 17

And the rest of the Big Ten:

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
29 27 PennState B10 5-3 0.460 1.127 47 0.667 23
36 37 Northwestern B10 7-2 0.378 1.180 36 0.802 39
43 40 Wisconsin B10 6-3 0.302 1.057 61 0.755 32
48 54 MichiganState B10 5-4 0.255 0.720 104 0.465 5
57 38 Purdue B10 3-5 0.154 1.171 38 1.017 73
58 64 Indiana B10 3-5 0.137 1.362 19 1.225 100
71 70 Iowa B10 4-4 -0.017 0.818 92 0.835 48
73 83 Minnesota B10 5-3 -0.025 0.801 94 0.826 46
96 97 Illinois B10 2-6 -0.304 0.593 120 0.897 59

Some thoughts...

Okay, I'm sorry about Tennessee. The thing is, they've lost to:

Florida (7-1)

Georgia (7-1)

Mississippi State (7-1)

Alabama (8-0)

South Carolina (7-2)

Combined record? 36-5.

I don't like it, but that's why they rank so high. I'm a little more egregious than most people, but even the actual professionals at Football Outsiders have them 30th. Yes, you'd expect them to at least pull out one of those to actually be worthy of a ranking of 16th, but sometimes luck just doesn't fall your way. This is the same coach that lost a bowl game because the other team had like 15 guys on the field. So it really fits him.

Danny O'Brien makes me sad and angry. Picture time! Can you guess what the point of this plot is?

Wisconsin Offense 2012

(1) This is your offense on Danny O'Brien

(2) This is your offense on Joel Stave/Danny O'Brien

(3) This is your offense on Joel Stave

I am legitimately afraid of losing to Indiana, because Danny O'Brien is some sort of offense vampire. I know Michigan State is not exactly the worst defense out there, but we scored 3 pts in the second half. Off of a turnover, on a drive where we lost yards. Ugh...

Almost certainly in-accurate BCS bowl guesses!

BCS Championship: Alabama vs Kansas State

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Nebraska

Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs Boise State

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs Clemson

Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Rutgers

I don't know. I think Oklahoma State will beat Oklahoma, but I also think they'll lose to Kansas State. So that would pretty much keep both Okie's out of the running for Fiesta Bowl replacement. Notre Dame would be too attractive to pass up, but then they are going to be left with Boise State or Clemson. Don't know. This is much harder than I thought it would be when I started.

PICKS TIME!

For the record, I did terrible last week in the OTE College Pick'Em, garnering 22 pts. Using weighted rankings to make picks, I would've gotten... 16 pts. Yay for being terrible at this!

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
#1 Alabama #5 LSU Alabama 99%
#2 KansasState #24 OklahomaState KansasState 60%
#3 NotreDame Pittsburgh NotreDame 98%
#4 Oregon #17USC Oregon 81%
#6 Georgia Mississippi Georgia 77%
#7 Florida Missouri Florida 87%
#10 Louisville Temple Louisville 88%
#11 OregonState ArizonaState OregonState 51%
#12 Oklahoma IowaState Oklahoma 86%
#13 Clemson Duke Clemson 93%
#14 Stanford Colorado Stanford 99%
#15 MississippiState #16 TexasAM TexasAM 78%
#18 TexasTech #23 Texas TexasTech 67%
#19 BoiseState SanDiegoState BoiseState 78%
#20 Nebraska MichiganState Nebraska 77%
#21 WestVirginia TCU TCU 75%
#22 Arizona UCLA Arizona 81%
#25 LouisianaTech UTSA LouisianaTech 82%

And the rest of the Big Ten:

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
Indiana Iowa Indiana 62%
Michigan Minnesota Michigan 88%
PennState Purdue PennState 72%
Illinois OhioState OhioState 98%

I'm not even going to post my Stupid Upset Pick of the week anymore, because I'm wrong every time. It's like Vegas knows more than me or something!

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