FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK TWELVE

hoegher is sick. Unfortunately, I have this "real job" now and I've heard you can't just decide to skip. I miss college sometimes. The paycheck is nice though.

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 Alabama SEC 9-1 1.289 1.612 7 0.323 1
2 3 TexasAM SEC 8-2 1.152 1.848 2 0.696 25
3 5 Oregon Pac-12 10-0 1.128 1.948 1 0.819 43
4 2 FloridaState ACC 9-1 1.020 1.457 15 0.437 4
5 4 KansasState B12 10-0 0.992 1.598 8 0.606 13
6 6 Oklahoma B12 7-2 0.915 1.554 11 0.638 19
7 9 OklahomaState B12 6-3 0.878 1.615 6 0.737 29
8 11 Georgia SEC 9-1 0.859 1.545 12 0.686 23
9 7 Florida SEC 9-1 0.833 1.227 28 0.395 3
10 10 Clemson ACC 9-1 0.818 1.644 4 0.826 44
11 8 NotreDame Ind. 10-0 0.794 1.150 41 0.356 2
12 12 SouthCarolina SEC 8-2 0.743 1.345 21 0.603 12
13 13 Nebraska B10 8-2 0.714 1.571 10 0.857 49
14 18 USC Pac-12 7-3 0.670 1.363 18 0.693 24
15 17 LSU SEC 8-2 0.665 1.306 24 0.640 20
16 21 Texas B12 8-2 0.643 1.427 16 0.784 36
17 16 OregonState Pac-12 7-2 0.626 1.221 31 0.595 11
18 15 OhioState B10 10-0 0.620 1.483 14 0.863 50
19 26 Stanford Pac-12 8-2 0.571 1.103 50 0.532 7
20 14 TexasTech B12 7-3 0.557 1.346 20 0.789 37
21 25 Michigan B10 7-3 0.531 1.185 36 0.653 21
22 28 UtahState WAC 8-2 0.512 1.056 60 0.544 8
23 20 Arizona Pac-12 6-4 0.503 1.541 13 1.038 76
24 23 Tennessee SEC 4-6 0.497 1.626 5 1.129 87
25 19 ArizonaState Pac-12 5-5 0.482 1.309 23 0.827 45

And the rest of the Big Ten

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
27 27 PennState B10 6-4 0.460 1.086 53 0.626 18
30 34 Northwestern B10 7-3 0.430 1.243 26 0.814 41
35 47 Wisconsin B10 7-3 0.387 1.111 49 0.724 27
52 50 MichiganState B10 5-5 0.231 0.725 105 0.494 5
67 69 Purdue B10 4-6 0.036 1.084 55 1.049 78
68 76 Minnesota B10 6-4 0.002 0.773 97 0.772 34
70 60 Indiana B10 4-6 -0.015 1.242 27 1.257 106
72 74 Iowa B10 4-6 -0.041 0.792 96 0.833 46
101 99 Illinois B10 2-8 -0.350 0.574 122 0.924 59

Some thoughts...

SUCK IT ALABAMA. Yeah, their still #1 here, but that was pretty fan-fricking-tastic. I guess my desire to be right doesn't extend to wanting Alabama to win, which I am A-OK with. That loss knocked Alabama's defense from the ranks of "All-Time Elite" to... well still pretty fantastic, but at least it's less ludicrous than it was.

Also, nice job by Johnny Football. I've got a quick and dirty way of trying to rate the "quality" of each team's performance in a given game which takes into account how a team played AND whether the opponent is actually good or not (no one wants to see, oh that 84-0 whitewashing of an FCS was simply sublime). Texas A&M's win over Nick Saban's Gang was the best rated of any game on the year (second is South Carolina over Georgia earlier). Props Aggies. Props.

Luck. Penn State has it rough. NOTE: This is not about certain calls that may or may not have happened. There is not a conspiracy. Every team thinks they get bad calls, and everyone complains about them. YOU ARE NOT SPECIAL.

Anyway, I keep a "Luck" metric that does its best to keep track of teams "Winning Percentage" vs their "Expected Win Percentage" (based on my numbers, so grains of salt and all that jazz). PennState has a Luck rating of -14.9% (116th), which is a bit unfortunate. Perhaps they shouldn't have lost to Virginia (this is probably the biggest contribution to that).

For teams on the other side of the metric, Ohio States rates out with +16.6% (9th). That really shouldn't be that much of a surprise considering their several close calls and heretofore undefeated record (fingers crossed that ends soon!). Illinois rates out at -0.9% (67th) so they are pretty much exactly as bad as their record would suggest.

I was going to make this about Northwestern, because they pretty consistently have a significantly positive Luck rating year-after-year (2007-2010: +10%,+7%,+9%,+2%), but they went below the ledger last year, so it destroyed my narrative. Poo-bah.

DAMMIT ARIZONA. because of you, Colorado looked almost "meh" on offense and they rose to 121st overall (Idaho, generic FCS, NewMexicoState, and Massachusetts are the ones lagging behind.

Washington, pick up the slack.

PICKS TIME

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
#1 Oregon #14 Stanford Oregon 88%
#2 KansasState Baylor KansasState 94%
#3 NotreDame WakeForest NotreDame 99%
#4 Alabama FCS Alabama 99%
#5 Georgia FCS Georgia 99%
#6 OhioState Wisconsin OhioState 69%
#7 Florida FCS Florida 99%
#8 LSU Mississippi LSU 81%
#9 TexasAM FCS TexasAM 99%
#10 FloridaState Maryland FloridaState 99%
#11 Clemson NorthCarolinaState Clemson 93%
#12 SouthCarolina FCS SouthCarolina 99%
#13 Oklahoma WestVirginia Oklahoma 94%
#15 OregonState California OregonState 95%
#16 Nebraska Minnesota Nebraska 94%
#17 UCLA #21 USC USC 69%
#19 LouisianaTech UtahState UtahState 73%
#22 Rutgers Cincinnati Cincinnati 51%
#23 Michigan Iowa Michigan 88%
#24 TexasTech OklahomaState OklahomaState 75%
#25 KentState BowlingGreen BowlingGreen 60%

And the rest of the Big Ten:

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
Illinois Purdue Purdue 79%
Indiana PennState PennState 84%
MichiganState Northwestern Northwestern 66%
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