Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK TWELVE

hoegher is sick. Unfortunately, I have this "real job" now and I've heard you can't just decide to skip. I miss college sometimes. The paycheck is nice though.

Rank	LW	NCAA Team	Conf	Record	Adj Marg	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk
1	1	Alabama	SEC	9-1	1.289	1.612	7	0.323	1
2	3	TexasAM	SEC	8-2	1.152	1.848	2	0.696	25
3	5	Oregon	Pac-12	10-0	1.128	1.948	1	0.819	43
4	2	FloridaState	ACC	9-1	1.020	1.457	15	0.437	4
5	4	KansasState	B12	10-0	0.992	1.598	8	0.606	13
6	6	Oklahoma	B12	7-2	0.915	1.554	11	0.638	19
7	9	OklahomaState	B12	6-3	0.878	1.615	6	0.737	29
8	11	Georgia	SEC	9-1	0.859	1.545	12	0.686	23
9	7	Florida	SEC	9-1	0.833	1.227	28	0.395	3
10	10	Clemson	ACC	9-1	0.818	1.644	4	0.826	44
11	8	NotreDame	Ind.	10-0	0.794	1.150	41	0.356	2
12	12	SouthCarolina	SEC	8-2	0.743	1.345	21	0.603	12
13	13	Nebraska	B10	8-2	0.714	1.571	10	0.857	49
14	18	USC	Pac-12	7-3	0.670	1.363	18	0.693	24
15	17	LSU	SEC	8-2	0.665	1.306	24	0.640	20
16	21	Texas	B12	8-2	0.643	1.427	16	0.784	36
17	16	OregonState	Pac-12	7-2	0.626	1.221	31	0.595	11
18	15	OhioState	B10	10-0	0.620	1.483	14	0.863	50
19	26	Stanford	Pac-12	8-2	0.571	1.103	50	0.532	7
20	14	TexasTech	B12	7-3	0.557	1.346	20	0.789	37
21	25	Michigan	B10	7-3	0.531	1.185	36	0.653	21
22	28	UtahState	WAC	8-2	0.512	1.056	60	0.544	8
23	20	Arizona	Pac-12	6-4	0.503	1.541	13	1.038	76
24	23	Tennessee	SEC	4-6	0.497	1.626	5	1.129	87
25	19	ArizonaState	Pac-12	5-5	0.482	1.309	23	0.827	45

And the rest of the Big Ten

Rank	LW	NCAA Team	Conf	Record	Adj Marg	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk
27	27	PennState	B10	6-4	0.460	1.086	53	0.626	18
30	34	Northwestern	B10	7-3	0.430	1.243	26	0.814	41
35	47	Wisconsin	B10	7-3	0.387	1.111	49	0.724	27
52	50	MichiganState	B10	5-5	0.231	0.725	*105*	0.494	5
67	69	Purdue	B10	4-6	0.036	1.084	55	1.049	78
68	76	Minnesota	B10	6-4	0.002	0.773	97	0.772	34
70	60	Indiana	B10	4-6	-0.015	1.242	27	1.257	*106*
72	74	Iowa	B10	4-6	-0.041	0.792	96	0.833	46
101	99	Illinois	B10	2-8	-0.350	0.574	*122*	0.924	59

Some thoughts...

SUCK IT ALABAMA. Yeah, their still #1 here, but that was pretty fan-fricking-tastic. I guess my desire to be right doesn't extend to wanting Alabama to win, which I am A-OK with. That loss knocked Alabama's defense from the ranks of "All-Time Elite" to... well still pretty fantastic, but at least it's less ludicrous than it was.

Also, nice job by Johnny Football. I've got a quick and dirty way of trying to rate the "quality" of each team's performance in a given game which takes into account how a team played AND whether the opponent is actually good or not (no one wants to see, oh that 84-0 whitewashing of an FCS was simply sublime). Texas A&M's win over Nick Saban's Gang was the best rated of any game on the year (second is South Carolina over Georgia earlier). Props Aggies. Props.

Luck. Penn State has it rough. NOTE: This is not about certain calls that may or may not have happened. There is not a conspiracy. Every team thinks they get bad calls, and everyone complains about them. YOU ARE NOT SPECIAL.

Anyway, I keep a "Luck" metric that does its best to keep track of teams "Winning Percentage" vs their "Expected Win Percentage" (based on my numbers, so grains of salt and all that jazz). PennState has a Luck rating of -14.9% (116th), which is a bit unfortunate. Perhaps they shouldn't have lost to Virginia (this is probably the biggest contribution to that).

For teams on the other side of the metric, Ohio States rates out with +16.6% (9th). That really shouldn't be that much of a surprise considering their several close calls and heretofore undefeated record (fingers crossed that ends soon!). Illinois rates out at -0.9% (67th) so they are pretty much exactly as bad as their record would suggest.

I was going to make this about Northwestern, because they pretty consistently have a significantly positive Luck rating year-after-year (2007-2010: +10%,+7%,+9%,+2%), but they went below the ledger last year, so it destroyed my narrative. Poo-bah.

DAMMIT ARIZONA. because of you, Colorado looked almost "meh" on offense and they rose to 121st overall (Idaho, generic FCS, NewMexicoState, and Massachusetts are the ones lagging behind.

Washington, pick up the slack.

PICKS TIME

Team	Opponent	Winner	Confidence
#1 Oregon	#14 Stanford	Oregon	88%
#2 KansasState	Baylor	KansasState	94%
#3 NotreDame	WakeForest	NotreDame	99%
#4 Alabama	FCS	Alabama	99%
#5 Georgia	FCS	Georgia	99%
#6 OhioState	Wisconsin	OhioState	69%
#7 Florida	FCS	Florida	99%
#8 LSU	Mississippi	LSU	81%
#9 TexasAM	FCS	TexasAM	99%
#10 FloridaState	Maryland	FloridaState	99%
#11 Clemson	NorthCarolinaState	Clemson	93%
#12 SouthCarolina	FCS	SouthCarolina	99%
#13 Oklahoma	WestVirginia	Oklahoma	94%
#15 OregonState	California	OregonState	95%
#16 Nebraska	Minnesota	Nebraska	94%
#17 UCLA	#21 USC	USC	69%
#19 LouisianaTech	UtahState	UtahState	73%
#22 Rutgers	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	51%
#23 Michigan	Iowa	Michigan	88%
#24 TexasTech	OklahomaState	OklahomaState	75%
#25 KentState	BowlingGreen	BowlingGreen	60%

And the rest of the Big Ten:

Team	Opponent	Winner	Confidence
Illinois	Purdue	Purdue	79%
Indiana	PennState	PennState	84%
MichiganState	Northwestern	Northwestern	66%

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