FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK THIRTEEN

Oregon, I can understand. Stanford has a good defensive line, and we all know how you crumble when you come against something a that actually offers resistance (yes, I'm including Wisconsin's 2011 defense in that).

But you, Kansas State? I am disappoint. Now look what you've done. The SEC is back on track for BCS Championship hopes. Go sit in a corner and think about what you've done.

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 Alabama SEC 10-1 1.235 1.532 10 0.297 1
2 3 Oregon Pac-12 10-1 1.030 1.834 1 0.803 39
3 4 FloridaState ACC 10-1 0.989 1.452 14 0.464 5
4 2 TexasAM SEC 9-2 0.986 1.801 2 0.816 40
5 7 OklahomaState B12 7-3 0.924 1.640 6 0.715 25
6 11 NotreDame Ind. 11-0 0.827 1.160 42 0.333 2
7 5 KansasState B12 10-1 0.824 1.464 13 0.641 17
8 6 Oklahoma B12 8-2 0.820 1.502 12 0.682 22
9 10 Clemson ACC 10-1 0.819 1.710 4 0.890 55
10 8 Georgia SEC 10-1 0.797 1.517 11 0.720 26
11 9 Florida SEC 10-1 0.789 1.156 43 0.367 3
12 13 Nebraska B10 9-2 0.754 1.589 7 0.835 46
13 17 OregonState Pac-12 8-2 0.728 1.330 22 0.602 11
14 15 LSU SEC 9-2 0.664 1.343 21 0.679 21
15 12 SouthCarolina SEC 9-2 0.651 1.255 29 0.604 12
16 16 Texas B12 8-2 0.629 1.397 17 0.767 33
17 14 USC Pac-12 7-4 0.628 1.366 19 0.738 30
18 18 OhioState B10 11-0 0.593 1.423 15 0.830 44
19 21 Michigan B10 8-3 0.588 1.259 28 0.671 20
20 19 Stanford Pac-12 9-2 0.557 1.062 58 0.505 6
21 23 Arizona Pac-12 7-4 0.537 1.564 9 1.027 75
22 25 ArizonaState Pac-12 6-5 0.530 1.307 24 0.777 35
23 26 NorthCarolina ACC 7-4 0.491 1.329 23 0.838 47
24 22 UtahState WAC 9-2 0.486 1.064 55 0.578 9
25 29 UCLA Pac-12 9-2 0.480 1.348 20 0.868 52

And the rest of the Big Ten:

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
26 27 PennState B10 7-4 0.471 1.102 50 0.631 15
28 30 Northwestern B10 8-3 0.455 1.270 26 0.816 41
40 35 Wisconsin B10 7-4 0.364 1.049 59 0.685 23
54 52 MichiganState B10 5-6 0.239 0.749 100 0.511 7
66 67 Purdue B10 5-6 0.022 1.069 53 1.047 78
71 68 Minnesota B10 6-5 -0.030 0.760 98 0.790 37
73 70 Indiana B10 4-7 -0.041 1.251 31 1.293 106
76 72 Iowa B10 4-7 -0.062 0.801 94 0.862 51
96 101 Illinois B10 2-9 -0.321 0.585 120 0.905 56

Some thoughts...

Bite on a stick, Ohio State. After:

- listening to Ohio State fans yell all week how "Oh yeah, we're going to crush Wisconsin 41-10, easy. EAT IT BEILS."

- watching that stellar Ohio State team get outgained 360-236, while scoring 0 pts in the second half (all against a Wisconsin team starting its 3rd QB of the season)

- enduring a Badgers loss anyway, because God is cruel

I'm not feeling very charitable toward the Buckeyes right now. So instead of admiring their unblemished record, I'm going to instead ask this: is Ohio State the worst un-defeated team of all-time? I know, blasphemy to suggest a team that struggled with California, UAB, Indiana, and Purdue might not be all that great.

Well, I don't have numbers for all-time, but I do have rankings going back to 1990, which is long enough to offer some comparison. Also, we'll only consider BCS teams, because obviously an undefeated Tulane team doesn't stack up.

/crunches numbers

And the verdict: 2012 Ohio State rates out only the 3rd worst undefeated BCS team since 1990. The list:

Team (record): StDev above Mean

1994 TexasAM (10-0-1): 1.045

2002 Ohio State (14-0): 1.174

2012 Ohio State (11-0): 1.179

2002 Ohio State at least had an elite defense, though (2nd in the nation that year, according to my Excel sheets). This Ohio State is just good at offense and adequate at defense. The lesson here is that Ohio State is lucky they're a bunch of dirty cheaters, because they would get massacred in the BCS Championship game (again).

Good news, everyone! We might be spared SEC domination after all! There are several important games involving SEC teams this week, and it's not outside the realm of possibility that they lose every one:

->Florida vs Florida State - I have Florida State over Florida (and have for most of the season), even without factoring in the recent offensive malaise undergone by the Florida offense.

->South Carolina vs Clemson - Again, I have Clemson ranked higher than South Carolina. DON'T MESS THIS UP DABO.

->Georgia vs Georgia Tech - okay, obviously Georgia is favored. But it's not outside the realm of realistic possibility for the Yellow Jackets to pull the upset!

->Alabama vs Aub- HAHAHAHAHAHA. Yeah... no.

Weekly CoLOLrado update They fell again! Back to 124th! Still ahead of Massachusetts, which is basically the same as being last anyway. Utah, if you somehow manage to lose to Colorado again, I will never forgive you.

PICKS TIME

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
#1 NotreDame USC NotreDame 66%
#2 Alabama Auburn Alabama 99%
#3 Georgia GeorgiaTech Georgia 77%
#4 OhioState #20 Michigan OhioState 50%
#5 Oregon #16 OregonState Oregon 73%
#6 Florida #10 FloridaState FloridaState 66%
#8 LSU Arkansas LSU 93%
#9 TexasAM Missouri TexasAM 95%
#11 Stanford #15 UCLA Stanford 57%
#12 Clemson #13 SouthCarolina Clemson 64%
#14 Oklahoma #22 OklahomaState OklahomaState 59%
#17 Nebraska Iowa Nebraska 97%
#18 Texas TCU Texas 70%
#19 Louisville Connecticut Louisville 80%
#21 Rutgers Pittsburgh Rutgers 71%
#23 KentState Ohio KentState 75%
#24 NorthernIllinois EasternMichigan NorthernIllinois 99%
#25 MississippiState Mississippi MississippiState 61%
#25 UtahState Idaho UtahState 99%

Big Ten

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
Illinois Northwestern Northwestern 96%
Indiana Purdue Purdue 55%
MichiganState Minnesota MichiganState 71%
PennState Wisconsin PennState 59%

I actually won my Stupid Upset Pick last week! Thanks Northwestern! This week I have the orange team in Bedlam. Enjoy some turkey everyone :)

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