Oregon, I can understand. Stanford has a good defensive line, and we all know how you crumble when you come against something a that actually offers resistance (yes, I'm including Wisconsin's 2011 defense in that).
But you, Kansas State? I am disappoint. Now look what you've done. The SEC is back on track for BCS Championship hopes. Go sit in a corner and think about what you've done.
| Rank | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Alabama | SEC | 10-1 | 1.235 | 1.532 | 10 | 0.297 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 10-1 | 1.030 | 1.834 | 1 | 0.803 | 39 |
| 3 | 4 | FloridaState | ACC | 10-1 | 0.989 | 1.452 | 14 | 0.464 | 5 |
| 4 | 2 | TexasAM | SEC | 9-2 | 0.986 | 1.801 | 2 | 0.816 | 40 |
| 5 | 7 | OklahomaState | B12 | 7-3 | 0.924 | 1.640 | 6 | 0.715 | 25 |
| 6 | 11 | NotreDame | Ind. | 11-0 | 0.827 | 1.160 | 42 | 0.333 | 2 |
| 7 | 5 | KansasState | B12 | 10-1 | 0.824 | 1.464 | 13 | 0.641 | 17 |
| 8 | 6 | Oklahoma | B12 | 8-2 | 0.820 | 1.502 | 12 | 0.682 | 22 |
| 9 | 10 | Clemson | ACC | 10-1 | 0.819 | 1.710 | 4 | 0.890 | 55 |
| 10 | 8 | Georgia | SEC | 10-1 | 0.797 | 1.517 | 11 | 0.720 | 26 |
| 11 | 9 | Florida | SEC | 10-1 | 0.789 | 1.156 | 43 | 0.367 | 3 |
| 12 | 13 | Nebraska | B10 | 9-2 | 0.754 | 1.589 | 7 | 0.835 | 46 |
| 13 | 17 | OregonState | Pac-12 | 8-2 | 0.728 | 1.330 | 22 | 0.602 | 11 |
| 14 | 15 | LSU | SEC | 9-2 | 0.664 | 1.343 | 21 | 0.679 | 21 |
| 15 | 12 | SouthCarolina | SEC | 9-2 | 0.651 | 1.255 | 29 | 0.604 | 12 |
| 16 | 16 | Texas | B12 | 8-2 | 0.629 | 1.397 | 17 | 0.767 | 33 |
| 17 | 14 | USC | Pac-12 | 7-4 | 0.628 | 1.366 | 19 | 0.738 | 30 |
| 18 | 18 | OhioState | B10 | 11-0 | 0.593 | 1.423 | 15 | 0.830 | 44 |
| 19 | 21 | Michigan | B10 | 8-3 | 0.588 | 1.259 | 28 | 0.671 | 20 |
| 20 | 19 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 9-2 | 0.557 | 1.062 | 58 | 0.505 | 6 |
| 21 | 23 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 7-4 | 0.537 | 1.564 | 9 | 1.027 | 75 |
| 22 | 25 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | 6-5 | 0.530 | 1.307 | 24 | 0.777 | 35 |
| 23 | 26 | NorthCarolina | ACC | 7-4 | 0.491 | 1.329 | 23 | 0.838 | 47 |
| 24 | 22 | UtahState | WAC | 9-2 | 0.486 | 1.064 | 55 | 0.578 | 9 |
| 25 | 29 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 9-2 | 0.480 | 1.348 | 20 | 0.868 | 52 |
And the rest of the Big Ten:
| Rank | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 27 | PennState | B10 | 7-4 | 0.471 | 1.102 | 50 | 0.631 | 15 |
| 28 | 30 | Northwestern | B10 | 8-3 | 0.455 | 1.270 | 26 | 0.816 | 41 |
| 40 | 35 | Wisconsin | B10 | 7-4 | 0.364 | 1.049 | 59 | 0.685 | 23 |
| 54 | 52 | MichiganState | B10 | 5-6 | 0.239 | 0.749 | 100 | 0.511 | 7 |
| 66 | 67 | Purdue | B10 | 5-6 | 0.022 | 1.069 | 53 | 1.047 | 78 |
| 71 | 68 | Minnesota | B10 | 6-5 | -0.030 | 0.760 | 98 | 0.790 | 37 |
| 73 | 70 | Indiana | B10 | 4-7 | -0.041 | 1.251 | 31 | 1.293 | 106 |
| 76 | 72 | Iowa | B10 | 4-7 | -0.062 | 0.801 | 94 | 0.862 | 51 |
| 96 | 101 | Illinois | B10 | 2-9 | -0.321 | 0.585 | 120 | 0.905 | 56 |
Some thoughts...
Bite on a stick, Ohio State. After:
- listening to Ohio State fans yell all week how "Oh yeah, we're going to crush Wisconsin 41-10, easy. EAT IT BEILS."
- watching that stellar Ohio State team get outgained 360-236, while scoring 0 pts in the second half (all against a Wisconsin team starting its 3rd QB of the season)
- enduring a Badgers loss anyway, because God is cruel
I'm not feeling very charitable toward the Buckeyes right now. So instead of admiring their unblemished record, I'm going to instead ask this: is Ohio State the worst un-defeated team of all-time? I know, blasphemy to suggest a team that struggled with California, UAB, Indiana, and Purdue might not be all that great.
Well, I don't have numbers for all-time, but I do have rankings going back to 1990, which is long enough to offer some comparison. Also, we'll only consider BCS teams, because obviously an undefeated Tulane team doesn't stack up.
/crunches numbers
And the verdict: 2012 Ohio State rates out only the 3rd worst undefeated BCS team since 1990. The list:
Team (record): StDev above Mean
1994 TexasAM (10-0-1): 1.045
2002 Ohio State (14-0): 1.174
2012 Ohio State (11-0): 1.179
2002 Ohio State at least had an elite defense, though (2nd in the nation that year, according to my Excel sheets). This Ohio State is just good at offense and adequate at defense. The lesson here is that Ohio State is lucky they're a bunch of dirty cheaters, because they would get massacred in the BCS Championship game (again).
Good news, everyone! We might be spared SEC domination after all! There are several important games involving SEC teams this week, and it's not outside the realm of possibility that they lose every one:
->Florida vs Florida State - I have Florida State over Florida (and have for most of the season), even without factoring in the recent offensive malaise undergone by the Florida offense.
->South Carolina vs Clemson - Again, I have Clemson ranked higher than South Carolina. DON'T MESS THIS UP DABO.
->Georgia vs Georgia Tech - okay, obviously Georgia is favored. But it's not outside the realm of realistic possibility for the Yellow Jackets to pull the upset!
->Alabama vs Aub- HAHAHAHAHAHA. Yeah... no.
Weekly CoLOLrado update They fell again! Back to 124th! Still ahead of Massachusetts, which is basically the same as being last anyway. Utah, if you somehow manage to lose to Colorado again, I will never forgive you.
PICKS TIME
| Team | Opponent | Winner | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 NotreDame | USC | NotreDame | 66% |
| #2 Alabama | Auburn | Alabama | 99% |
| #3 Georgia | GeorgiaTech | Georgia | 77% |
| #4 OhioState | #20 Michigan | OhioState | 50% |
| #5 Oregon | #16 OregonState | Oregon | 73% |
| #6 Florida | #10 FloridaState | FloridaState | 66% |
| #8 LSU | Arkansas | LSU | 93% |
| #9 TexasAM | Missouri | TexasAM | 95% |
| #11 Stanford | #15 UCLA | Stanford | 57% |
| #12 Clemson | #13 SouthCarolina | Clemson | 64% |
| #14 Oklahoma | #22 OklahomaState | OklahomaState | 59% |
| #17 Nebraska | Iowa | Nebraska | 97% |
| #18 Texas | TCU | Texas | 70% |
| #19 Louisville | Connecticut | Louisville | 80% |
| #21 Rutgers | Pittsburgh | Rutgers | 71% |
| #23 KentState | Ohio | KentState | 75% |
| #24 NorthernIllinois | EasternMichigan | NorthernIllinois | 99% |
| #25 MississippiState | Mississippi | MississippiState | 61% |
| #25 UtahState | Idaho | UtahState | 99% |
Big Ten
| Team | Opponent | Winner | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | Northwestern | Northwestern | 96% |
| Indiana | Purdue | Purdue | 55% |
| MichiganState | Minnesota | MichiganState | 71% |
| PennState | Wisconsin | PennState | 59% |
I actually won my Stupid Upset Pick last week! Thanks Northwestern! This week I have the orange team in Bedlam. Enjoy some turkey everyone :)
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