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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK ELEVEN

I'm very annoyed at Alabama right now. I thought that 8 pt spread in their favor was the easiest pick ever. Historically elite defense vs "meh" offense? MONEY. But noooooo, Zach Mettenburger had to suddenly turn into "adequate," and boom: 5 straight weeks of beating the spread with my picks turned into a loss. Screw you Alabama. Screw you hard.

Also, it is extremely odd rooting hard for Notre Dame. I guess I'd rather be right than taste Irish schadenfreude

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 Alabama SEC 9-0 1.437 1.737 3 0.300 1
2 3 FloridaState ACC 8-1 1.080 1.481 15 0.400 4
3 8 TexasAM SEC 7-2 1.075 1.774 2 0.699 25
4 2 KansasState B12 9-0 1.069 1.708 5 0.639 20
5 4 Oregon Pac-12 9-0 1.041 1.908 1 0.867 53
6 5 Oklahoma B12 6-2 1.000 1.613 8 0.613 17
7 9 Florida SEC 8-1 0.897 1.270 26 0.374 3
8 6 NotreDame Ind. 9-0 0.890 1.259 28 0.369 2
9 7 OklahomaState B12 5-3 0.887 1.603 9 0.717 27
10 13 Clemson ACC 8-1 0.814 1.656 7 0.841 46
11 12 Georgia SEC 8-1 0.810 1.578 11 0.768 33
12 14 SouthCarolina SEC 7-2 0.754 1.344 20 0.589 13
13 17 Nebraska B10 7-2 0.706 1.571 12 0.865 52
14 11 TexasTech B12 6-3 0.685 1.389 18 0.705 26
15 15 OhioState B10 10-0 0.670 1.513 14 0.843 48
16 18 OregonState Pac-12 7-1 0.667 1.235 29 0.569 11
17 28 LSU SEC 7-2 0.624 1.270 27 0.646 22
18 23 USC Pac-12 6-3 0.620 1.355 19 0.735 28
19 19 ArizonaState Pac-12 5-4 0.616 1.415 17 0.799 40
20 10 Arizona Pac-12 5-4 0.604 1.584 10 0.979 69
21 20 Texas B12 7-2 0.579 1.421 16 0.842 47
22 22 NorthCarolina ACC 6-3 0.560 1.315 22 0.755 31
23 16 Tennessee SEC 4-5 0.558 1.687 6 1.130 88
24 33 UCLA Pac-12 7-2 0.552 1.331 21 0.779 36
25 21 Michigan B10 6-3 0.545 1.158 39 0.613 16

And the rest of the Big Ten:

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
27 29 PennState B10 6-3 0.519 1.131 44 0.612 15
34 36 Northwestern B10 7-2 0.401 1.205 32 0.803 41
47 43 Wisconsin B10 6-3 0.274 1.028 65 0.753 30
50 48 MichiganState B10 5-5 0.245 0.739 101 0.494 5
60 58 Indiana B10 4-5 0.122 1.301 23 1.179 93
69 57 Purdue B10 3-6 0.012 1.058 61 1.046 78
74 71 Iowa B10 4-5 -0.024 0.793 96 0.817 44
76 73 Minnesota B10 5-4 -0.057 0.803 94 0.860 50
99 96 Illinois B10 2-7 -0.310 0.637 116 0.946 63

Some thoughts...

Hoegher's Rankings vs Actually Winning. I've actually got another set of rankings I look at ("Resume," probably somewhat similar to talonk's, though he puts much more effort into his), that only look at wins and losses. I haven't really posted them because:

a) I think they are less interesting and/or informative, and

b) Time and energy over here. Especially with actually working now

But it's still fun to look at the comparisons every now and then, so there's no time like the present, right? Here's a look at some notable teams and their differences:

Toledo, Kent State, Ohio... okay, wait a sec. Here's a look at teams that people actually care about:

Utah (32nd in AdjMarg, 77th in Resume) - this is what happens when you drop three close games to Utah State (1 pt), USC (10 pts), and Arizona State (7 pts).

Tennessee (23rd in AdjMarg, 61st in Resume) - I know you're all shocked by this one.

Washington (65th in AdjMarg, 32nd in Resume) - Oregon State and Stanford are the reason for this

Louisville (38th in AdjMarg, 8th in Resume) - die in a fire, Louisville.

Alabama (1st in AdjMarg, 2nd in Resume) - well, somethings never change.

My new co-worker attended Illinois. I told him his football team is awful, and all he did was sigh and say, "Yeah..."

More information! So I actually project a final score for each game (which is how I come up with a final difference, and thus a confidence value in the picks that I make). The formula that I came up with uses each team's AdjOff and AdjDef ratings, and aligns with my AdjMarg rankings, so I'm happy. For example, Georgia-Auburn is predicted to end 34.1-13.4 (guess which team wins, I know it's hard). Sometimes the score projections seems a little off (which I why I only post confidence values, so people have less evidence to laugh at me for), but for the most part I think they align.

ANYWAY, the point of all this is that sometimes - if one team is really good (on defense) and the other team is really bad (on offense) - the score projections can defy reality. For example, a hypothetical match-up between Alabama and Illinois:

Alabama 42.1 Illinois -1.6

That's right, negative points. This is all I really wanted to say. (Iowa gets 2 pts, for comparison)

But they still beat Colorado by 16 pts. Oh Buffaloes. Just when I got scared that you weren't going to stay on rock bottom, rising ever so slightly to 122nd (out of 125) last week, you bring it all back down to 124th again (ahead of Massachusetts, who still has the excuse of not being a FBS program last year, much less a former national title winner). This is Colorado since 1990 (charted by percentile, so 99=awesome):

Colorado plays a RichRod offense this week and will probably fail to beat the 30 pt spread

TOP 25 PICKS

I'll have you know that I went 9 of 10 (for 52 pts) in the OTE College Pick'Em last week... and placed 5th for the week. Christ.

Also, these picks were made based on scores prior to Tuesday. SO EAT IT TOLEDO [/crotch chop].

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
#1 Alabama #15 TexasAM Alabama 75%
#2 Oregon California Oregon 99%
#3 KansasState TCU KansasState 87%
#4 NotreDame BostonCollege NotreDame 99%
#6 Georgia Auburn Georgia 95%
#7 Florida LouisianaLafayette Florida 91%
#8 FloridaState VirginiaTech FloridaState 93%
#9 LSU #22 MississippiState LSU 64%
#10 Clemson Maryland Clemson 99%
#11 Louisville Syracuse Louisville 66%
#12 SouthCarolina Arkansas SouthCarolina 91%
#13 OregonState #16 Stanford OregonState 60%
#14 Oklahoma Baylor Oklahoma 93%
#17 UCLA WashingtonState UCLA 99%
#18 Nebraska PennState Nebraska 64%
#19 Texas IowaState Texas 62%
#20 LouisianaTech TexasState LouisianaTech 96%
#21 USC ArizonaState USC 50%
#23 Toledo BallState BallState 52%
#24 Rutgers Army Rutgers 96%
#25 TexasTech Kansas TexasTech 97%

And the rest of the Big Ten:

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
Illinois Minnesota Minnesota 68%
Indiana Wisconsin Wisconsin 61%
Iowa Purdue Purdue 53%
Michigan Northwestern Michigan 61%
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