Guys, this may be a not-very-fun-year for me. On the one hand, that's part of the benefit of diving in the the college football jungle and developing rankings like this: I get to care about more teams than just my Badgers, so every weekend isn't completely filled with sad-ness*. On the other hand, seeing Montee Ball stuffed on 3rd and 2 because our O-Line decided to say "up yours" to Wisconsin tradition makes no one happy.
But still, I soldier on. As do we all, for with every new week comes a new opportunity to start a winning streak (Ohio State fans can be quiet here). May the Iowa's, Purdue's and Illinois' of the world also see success in the new future. Not Nebraska, though. That's what you get for speaking poorly of the Rose Bowl. LEARN TO LOVE IT.
(A reminder that the rankings and picks following the jump are of my own creation, and therefore should not be considered anything more than amateur. For more detailed and professional analysis of how exactly Wisconsin is going to go 1-11 this year, please see the always excellent Bill Connelly)
*SIDE NOTE: However (unlike my fellow Wisconsin fans) my favorite NFL team is leading their division currently. SUCK IT PACKERS, GO VIKINGS.
Because there are two weeks worth of data now, all pre-season assumptions have been discarded. However, I'm leaving off some of the schedule adjustments I normally use for these early weeks (until the conference schedule starts) to quell a bit of the quirk that would introduce. Not that it really matters, these aren't supposed to be meaningful so early in the season. To the rankings:
| Rank | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FloridaState | ACC | 2-0 | 1.416 | 1.567 | 8 | 0.151 | 2 |
| 2 | 7 | Baylor | B12 | 1-0 | 1.368 | 2.000 | 1 | 0.632 | 34 |
| 3 | 27 | TCU | B12 | 1-0 | 1.340 | 1.415 | 19 | 0.075 | 1 |
| 4 | 32 | LSU | SEC | 2-0 | 1.211 | 1.628 | 5 | 0.417 | 7 |
| 5 | 4 | Alabama | SEC | 2-0 | 1.067 | 1.399 | 20 | 0.332 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | 2-0 | 1.067 | 1.662 | 3 | 0.595 | 27 |
| 7 | 80 | NorthCarolinaState | ACC | 1-1 | 1.056 | 1.618 | 6 | 0.561 | 22 |
| 8 | 38 | GeorgiaTech | ACC | 1-1 | 1.047 | 1.454 | 16 | 0.407 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | OhioState | B10 | 2-0 | 1.017 | 1.489 | 13 | 0.472 | 11 |
| 10 | 25 | UtahState | WAC | 2-0 | 0.989 | 1.430 | 18 | 0.441 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | Utah | Pac-12 | 1-1 | 0.974 | 1.388 | 22 | 0.414 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 | OklahomaState | B12 | 1-1 | 0.944 | 1.752 | 2 | 0.809 | 55 |
| 13 | 59 | VirginiaTech | ACC | 2-0 | 0.897 | 1.384 | 23 | 0.488 | 13 |
| 14 | 22 | TexasTech | B12 | 2-0 | 0.897 | 1.373 | 25 | 0.476 | 12 |
| 15 | 50 | Georgia | SEC | 2-0 | 0.839 | 1.374 | 24 | 0.535 | 19 |
| 16 | 43 | Texas | B12 | 2-0 | 0.834 | 1.203 | 50 | 0.369 | 4 |
| 17 | 5 | NorthCarolina | ACC | 1-1 | 0.776 | 1.397 | 21 | 0.621 | 30 |
| 18 | 83 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 2-0 | 0.769 | 1.264 | 35 | 0.495 | 16 |
| 19 | 18 | Purdue | B10 | 1-1 | 0.724 | 1.236 | 43 | 0.512 | 17 |
| 20 | 53 | Michigan | B10 | 1-1 | 0.719 | 1.596 | 7 | 0.877 | 64 |
| 21 | 62 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 2-0 | 0.716 | 1.361 | 26 | 0.645 | 35 |
| 22 | 57 | BoiseState | MWC | 0-1 | 0.714 | 1.300 | 33 | 0.586 | 25 |
| 23 | 29 | Illinois | B10 | 1-1 | 0.698 | 1.233 | 44 | 0.535 | 20 |
| 24 | 14 | WestVirginia | B12 | 1-0 | 0.693 | 1.484 | 14 | 0.791 | 52 |
| 25 | 24 | KansasState | B12 | 2-0 | 0.683 | 1.264 | 36 | 0.580 | 23 |
And the rest of the Big MAC Ten:
| Rank | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 20 | MichiganState | B10 | 2-0 | 0.447 | 1.103 | 64 | 0.656 | 36 |
| 45 | 68 | Iowa | B10 | 1-1 | 0.408 | 0.927 | 83 | 0.518 | 18 |
| 56 | 87 | Minnesota | B10 | 2-0 | 0.253 | 0.999 | 76 | 0.745 | 47 |
| 59 | 94 | PennState | B10 | 0-2 | 0.222 | 0.826 | 94 | 0.603 | 28 |
| 65 | 8 | Nebraska | B10 | 1-1 | 0.132 | 1.056 | 71 | 0.924 | 69 |
| 79 | 84 | Northwestern | B10 | 2-0 | -0.011 | 1.075 | 68 | 1.086 | 78 |
| 100 | 105 | Wisconsin | B10 | 1-1 | -0.463 | 0.829 | 92 | 1.292 | 98 |
| 118 | 98 | Indiana | B10 | 2-0 | -0.789 | 0.852 | 90 | 1.641 | 118 |
Some thoughts...
I'm sorry Michigan State, but trust me when I say this will be rectified before long. The only reason y'all rank so low is due to the fact that Boise State has only had one game. So what will probably rate out as a very good performance only appears as average right now. So don't worry about it. Just beat Notre Dame next week (not necessarily a given).
This is also how Indiana (at 2-0) can rate out as one of the worst teams in the FBS (not that I think that's really wrong). They've played a FCS team (Indiana State), which obviously doesn't help. Additionally, nice as their game against Massachusetts was (45-6), the other game the Minutemen were involved in ended 0-37 in Connecticut's favor. So some tempering of excitement may be in order still.
Doctors now say cheese and corn cause cancer. Or maybe it's the new coordinators. No matter what it is, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska are all acting like they touched that basketball from Space Jam. Has anyone ever seen these new coaches? Do they bear any resemblance to these guys?

Not the rabbit. He's cool.
Space Jam reference quota aside, this is ridiculous. I projected UCLA's offense to rank 86th, they put up 36 pts on the Blackshirts (you wear that name with pride and think about what you've done should you besmirch it, Nebraska). Iowa State isn't terrible (projected defensive rank: 55th), but 6 pts on two field goals? Yeesh. And, of course, the Badgers. We need not refresh their struggles here. Thank God our new punters and kickers aren't terrible.
So of those three teams, who's most likely to turn it around? I'll have to go with Nebraska for my guess. I didn't project Iowa to be great on offense anyway, and that's before considering the wonders that Greg Davis brings to the table. Wisconsin was supposed to have a good offense, but when the fault lies with an O-Line performing like a 1st graders vs 5th graders Red Rover game (guess which one), I don't know how much can be done. I also don't know how 330 lb linemen can be pushed around like that, but wonders never cease. Nebraska may have just run into an unexpectedly good offense in UCLA, so I'll ride with them for now.
Even though it's early, you can still see some of the teams falling into place. LSU and Alabama fall in right by each other at 4 and 5, respectively, and they will inch their way up the table in the coming weeks, if not this week. Ohio State rates out 9th right now, actually a bit high for them I think (I still think mid-to-low teens), and I'm pleased to see Boise State still sticking around the Top 25, where I think they still deserve to be.
Early season over-rateds, though? Florida State should enjoy their top slot for now, but I expect them to come a-tumbling-down. Two games against - not even good - FCS teams is a very easy way to move your way up this list, but not a very good way to stay atop this list. TCU also (obviously) ranks too high, also because of a FCS team opponent. And forget what I said about Utah last week, any team that loses at home [EDIT: whoops, shouldn't make assumptions] to Utah State doesn't deserve to be considered a conference title contender. I will maintain this statement when Wisconsin loses to the Aggies next week in Camp Randall.

pre-emptive angry kitty picture
PICKS TIME!
As I said last week, these early season rankings and picks have little actual merit. So despite the fact I went 10-2 on my Big Ten picks (25-6 overall, 52-8 on the season), and I totally nailed Louisiana-Monroe over Arkansas (never doubt John L), that's more luck than anything else. Also, last week I had the benefit of some pre-season influence on my numbers - no more this time around. I anticipate a much worse outing this go round.
| Team | Opponent | Winner | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Alabama | Arkansas | Alabama | 99% |
| #2 USC | #21 Stanford | Stanford | 90% |
| #3 LSU | Idaho | LSU | 99% |
| #4 Oregon | FCS | Oregon | 99% |
| #6 FloridaState | WakeForest | FloridaState | 99% |
| #7 Georgia | FloridaAtlantic | Georgia | 99% |
| #8 SouthCarolina | UAB | SouthCarolina | 95% |
| #9 WestVirginia | FCS | WestVirginia | 99% |
| #10 MichiganState | #20 NotreDame | NotreDame | 55% |
| #11 Clemson | FCS | Clemson | 88% |
| #12 OhioState | California | OhioState | 99% |
| #13 VirginiaTech | Pittsburgh | VirginiaTech | 99% |
| #14 Texas | Mississippi | Texas | 99% |
| #15 KansasState | NorthTexas | KansasState | 64% |
| #16 TCU | Kansas | TCU | 99% |
| #17 Michigan | Massachusetts | Michigan | 99% |
| #18 Florida | #23 Tennessee | Tennessee | 54% |
| #19 Louisville | NorthCarolina | NorthCarolina | 60% |
| #22 UCLA | Houston | UCLA | 99% |
| #24 Arizona | FCS | Arizona | 99% |
| #25 BYU | Utah | Utah | 82% |
And the rest of the Big Ten:
| Team | Opponent | Winner | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | FCS | Illinois | 99% |
| Indiana | BallState | BallState | 87% |
| Iowa | FCS | Iowa | 98% |
| Minnesota | WesternMichigan | Minnesota | 96% |
| Northwestern | BostonCollege | Northwestern | 54% |
| PennState | Navy | PennState | 97% |
| Purdue | EasternMichigan | Purdue | 99% |
| Nebraska | ArkansasState | Nebraska | 60% |
| Wisconsin | UtahState | UtahState | 99% |
For my Stupid Upset Pick of the week, I once again steered away from picking against the Badgers because I don't want to confront reality just yet. I've got Arizona State over Missouri. Here's to a better Big Ten weekend, y'all!
- hoegher
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