FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK FIVE

Two notes to begin this week:

1) I'm sure that many of you have been competing in the OTE Predictions Competition, via the ESPN College Pick'em Game. I would like y'all to take a gander way at the top of the leader-board there and check the username. Ranking in the 99.5th percentile and #1 in OTE is... why it's me! I just wanted this preserved for when I go 0-fer this next week and plunge down the list.

2) I know this SB Nation United thing is still a work in progress, but hopefully some tinkering with the HTML editing can be done. All my nice formatting is wasted, and it's very disappointing :(

With the conclusion of the non-conference season (essentially), it's finally been enough time so that my full schedule adjustments have been put into my numbers. Hopefully, most people can look at these now and say "yeah, I can see that." Or feel free to criticize. I'll just point to the Predictions Competition Leader-board again and give a nice response of "SCOREBOARD, Y'ALL." ...okay, I'm done now.

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 FloridaState ACC 4-0 1.467 1.764 6 0.297 4
2 3 Alabama SEC 4-0 1.360 1.627 12 0.267 2
3 26 Oregon Pac-12 4-0 1.321 2.033 2 0.712 46
4 2 OklahomaState B12 2-1 1.302 2.197 1 0.895 64
5 19 Georgia SEC 4-0 1.184 1.975 3 0.791 53
6 4 ArizonaState Pac-12 3-1 1.161 1.642 11 0.481 11
7 9 Texas B12 3-0 1.144 1.682 8 0.538 20
8 49 Clemson ACC 3-1 1.080 1.907 5 0.827 58
9 5 SouthCarolina SEC 4-0 1.059 1.443 21 0.384 6
10 16 TexasAM SEC 2-1 1.050 1.622 13 0.572 23
11 15 NotreDame Ind. 4-0 1.009 1.304 36 0.295 3
12 13 TexasTech B12 3-0 1.009 1.438 22 0.429 10
13 20 Purdue B10 2-1 0.992 1.693 7 0.701 44
14 6 LSU SEC 4-0 0.986 1.549 15 0.563 22
15 22 KansasState B12 4-0 0.929 1.562 14 0.633 31
16 10 Florida SEC 4-0 0.897 1.382 27 0.485 12
17 12 Stanford Pac-12 3-0 0.895 1.319 31 0.424 9
18 8 TCU B12 3-0 0.855 1.046 60 0.191 1
19 45 Tennessee SEC 3-1 0.812 1.656 9 0.843 59
20 43 Nebraska B10 3-1 0.805 1.513 18 0.708 45
21 14 GeorgiaTech ACC 2-2 0.781 1.414 25 0.633 30
22 25 Missouri SEC 2-2 0.780 1.448 20 0.668 37
23 29 UCLA Pac-12 3-1 0.752 1.514 17 0.761 50
24 42 MississippiState SEC 4-0 0.718 1.384 26 0.666 35
25 27 Oklahoma B12 2-1 0.697 1.316 32 0.619 28

See? All my nice formatting for naught.

The rest of the Big Ten:

Rank LW NCAA Team Conf Record Adj Marg Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
27 21 OhioState B10 4-0 0.611 1.275 39 0.663 34
29 28 Michigan B10 2-2 0.577 1.507 18 0.931 67
43 30 Northwestern B10 4-0 0.422 1.122 53 0.700 43
45 32 Illinois B10 2-2 0.393 0.912 81 0.520 17
50 46 MichiganState B10 3-1 0.320 0.811 100 0.491 13
53 81 PennState B10 2-2 0.281 0.791 101 0.510 16
57 54 Minnesota B10 4-0 0.228 0.761 109 0.534 20
84 88 Wisconsin B10 3-1 -0.079 0.892 86 0.971 70
87 99 Indiana B10 2-1 -0.142 0.945 75 1.087 80
92 75 Iowa B10 2-2 -0.178 0.650 119 0.827 59

Some thoughts to follow:

Purdue? Her? Yes, while the rest of the Big Ten has been trying to out-TIRE FIRE each other (Indiana is still holding strong and they won't give up with out a fight) Purdue has actually been quite solid, even more so than Ohio State. (Inconveniently, in this Badger's opinion). They have crushed their admittedly crappy cupcakes in Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Michigan, and that close ROAD loss to Notre Dame looks pretty good compared to the flaming piles of offensive ineptitude put up by the Michigans.

Granted, they have still only played 3 games so far, and while the offense is looking decent, the defense has a ways to catch up. And a close loss to Notre Dame - while admirable - is still a loss. Marshall is not likely to tell us any more about this team, but they are one to keep an eye on. It is my hope that this is just smoke and mirrors.

On the subject of teams not getting enough respect, let me shout aloud that Oklahoma State is drastically under-rated. They are probably not the 4th best team in the country, but they are more than deserving a Top 25 spot. They destroyed Savannah State, and - grains of salt and all that jazz - that's still impressive. They destroyed Louisiana-Lafayette, who - despite being a Sun Belt team - is actually semi-okay. And a close loss to Arizona is not really anything to be deeply ashamed of. EDIT: because I am dumb and mis-remember things, I forgot that their loss was actually a blow-out. Still, the defense was never the strength of this team.

Now, I understand why people are reluctant to rank them. They lost a lot of people from last year, they haven't played really anybody (and lost to the BCS school on their schedule), and Wes Lunt got injured. Still, I'm telling y'all that they are a legit Top 25, if not Top 15 outfit. At least this Oklahoma school isn't burdened by the albatross of Landry Jones.

Iowa. Oh Iowa... I didn't think great things would happen with Iowa this year on offense, but Greg Davis has really found a way to submarine even those modest expectations. Let me be clear: despite Central Michigan's shiny 2-1 record, the Chippewas are an awful team. The same how Colorado remains terrible despite their 1st place in the Pac-12 South standing. This is not to let the defense off the hook (obviously giving up 9 pts in 50 seconds is not going to win you games), but Iowa's big problems are on the offense and I really don't know how it's going to get better.

Angry Kitty Award of the Week

Frankly, I think it's ludicrous that Iowa is favored over Minnesota this week (though I also thought that 51 pt o/u on the Wisconsin-UTEP game last week was free money, so what do I know). Maybe Greg Davis will turn out to not suck all of a sudden, but I have my doubts.

Worst team in the nation? Massachusetts Followed by Colorado. I am very angry that they managed to beat Washington State last week, but it does not change my opinion that the Buffaloes are awful. That is all.

PICKS TIME!

Guys, I didn't do as well last week. 17-8 overall (99-20 on the season), and a woeful 6-4 in the Big Ten. I would have still made out picking UTEP vs the spread though. Barely.

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
#1 Alabama Mississippi Alabama 98%
#2 Oregon WashingtonState Oregon 99%
#3 LSU FCS LSU 99%
#4 FloridaState SouthFlorida FloridaState 99%
#5 Georgia Tennessee Georgia 75%
#6 SouthCarolina Kentucky SouthCarolina 99%
#8 Stanford Washington Stanford 97%
#9 WestVirginia #25 Baylor WestVirginia 70%
#12 Texas OklahomaState OklahomaState 62%
#14 OhioState #20 MichiganState OhioState 71%
#15 TCU SMU TCU 96%
#17 Clemson BostonCollege Clemson 97%
#18 OregonState Arizona Arizona 53%
#19 Louisville SouthernMississippi Louisville 98%
#22 Nebraska Wisconsin Nebraska 96%
#24 BoiseState NewMexico BoiseState 81%

And the rest of the Big Ten:

Team Opponent Winner Confidence
Illinois PennState Illinois 58%
Indiana Northwestern Northwestern 85%
Iowa Minnesota Minnesota 77%
Purdue Marshall Purdue 99%

Really hoping Wisconsin proves me wrong here... Also, my Stupid Upset Pick of the week is Minnesota over Iowa, because obviously.

- hoegher

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Off Tackle Empire

You must be a member of Off Tackle Empire to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Off Tackle Empire. You should read them.

Join Off Tackle Empire

You must be a member of Off Tackle Empire to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Off Tackle Empire. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker