Two notes to begin this week:
1) I'm sure that many of you have been competing in the OTE Predictions Competition, via the ESPN College Pick'em Game. I would like y'all to take a gander way at the top of the leader-board there and check the username. Ranking in the 99.5th percentile and #1 in OTE is... why it's me! I just wanted this preserved for when I go 0-fer this next week and plunge down the list.
2) I know this SB Nation United thing is still a work in progress, but hopefully some tinkering with the HTML editing can be done. All my nice formatting is wasted, and it's very disappointing :(
With the conclusion of the non-conference season (essentially), it's finally been enough time so that my full schedule adjustments have been put into my numbers. Hopefully, most people can look at these now and say "yeah, I can see that." Or feel free to criticize. I'll just point to the Predictions Competition Leader-board again and give a nice response of "SCOREBOARD, Y'ALL." ...okay, I'm done now.
Rank | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | FloridaState | ACC | 4-0 | 1.467 | 1.764 | 6 | 0.297 | 4 |
2 | 3 | Alabama | SEC | 4-0 | 1.360 | 1.627 | 12 | 0.267 | 2 |
3 | 26 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 4-0 | 1.321 | 2.033 | 2 | 0.712 | 46 |
4 | 2 | OklahomaState | B12 | 2-1 | 1.302 | 2.197 | 1 | 0.895 | 64 |
5 | 19 | Georgia | SEC | 4-0 | 1.184 | 1.975 | 3 | 0.791 | 53 |
6 | 4 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | 3-1 | 1.161 | 1.642 | 11 | 0.481 | 11 |
7 | 9 | Texas | B12 | 3-0 | 1.144 | 1.682 | 8 | 0.538 | 20 |
8 | 49 | Clemson | ACC | 3-1 | 1.080 | 1.907 | 5 | 0.827 | 58 |
9 | 5 | SouthCarolina | SEC | 4-0 | 1.059 | 1.443 | 21 | 0.384 | 6 |
10 | 16 | TexasAM | SEC | 2-1 | 1.050 | 1.622 | 13 | 0.572 | 23 |
11 | 15 | NotreDame | Ind. | 4-0 | 1.009 | 1.304 | 36 | 0.295 | 3 |
12 | 13 | TexasTech | B12 | 3-0 | 1.009 | 1.438 | 22 | 0.429 | 10 |
13 | 20 | Purdue | B10 | 2-1 | 0.992 | 1.693 | 7 | 0.701 | 44 |
14 | 6 | LSU | SEC | 4-0 | 0.986 | 1.549 | 15 | 0.563 | 22 |
15 | 22 | KansasState | B12 | 4-0 | 0.929 | 1.562 | 14 | 0.633 | 31 |
16 | 10 | Florida | SEC | 4-0 | 0.897 | 1.382 | 27 | 0.485 | 12 |
17 | 12 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 3-0 | 0.895 | 1.319 | 31 | 0.424 | 9 |
18 | 8 | TCU | B12 | 3-0 | 0.855 | 1.046 | 60 | 0.191 | 1 |
19 | 45 | Tennessee | SEC | 3-1 | 0.812 | 1.656 | 9 | 0.843 | 59 |
20 | 43 | Nebraska | B10 | 3-1 | 0.805 | 1.513 | 18 | 0.708 | 45 |
21 | 14 | GeorgiaTech | ACC | 2-2 | 0.781 | 1.414 | 25 | 0.633 | 30 |
22 | 25 | Missouri | SEC | 2-2 | 0.780 | 1.448 | 20 | 0.668 | 37 |
23 | 29 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 3-1 | 0.752 | 1.514 | 17 | 0.761 | 50 |
24 | 42 | MississippiState | SEC | 4-0 | 0.718 | 1.384 | 26 | 0.666 | 35 |
25 | 27 | Oklahoma | B12 | 2-1 | 0.697 | 1.316 | 32 | 0.619 | 28 |
See? All my nice formatting for naught.
The rest of the Big Ten:
Rank | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Adj Marg | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
27 | 21 | OhioState | B10 | 4-0 | 0.611 | 1.275 | 39 | 0.663 | 34 |
29 | 28 | Michigan | B10 | 2-2 | 0.577 | 1.507 | 18 | 0.931 | 67 |
43 | 30 | Northwestern | B10 | 4-0 | 0.422 | 1.122 | 53 | 0.700 | 43 |
45 | 32 | Illinois | B10 | 2-2 | 0.393 | 0.912 | 81 | 0.520 | 17 |
50 | 46 | MichiganState | B10 | 3-1 | 0.320 | 0.811 | 100 | 0.491 | 13 |
53 | 81 | PennState | B10 | 2-2 | 0.281 | 0.791 | 101 | 0.510 | 16 |
57 | 54 | Minnesota | B10 | 4-0 | 0.228 | 0.761 | 109 | 0.534 | 20 |
84 | 88 | Wisconsin | B10 | 3-1 | -0.079 | 0.892 | 86 | 0.971 | 70 |
87 | 99 | Indiana | B10 | 2-1 | -0.142 | 0.945 | 75 | 1.087 | 80 |
92 | 75 | Iowa | B10 | 2-2 | -0.178 | 0.650 | 119 | 0.827 | 59 |
Some thoughts to follow:
Purdue? Her? Yes, while the rest of the Big Ten has been trying to out-TIRE FIRE each other (Indiana is still holding strong and they won't give up with out a fight) Purdue has actually been quite solid, even more so than Ohio State. (Inconveniently, in this Badger's opinion). They have crushed their admittedly crappy cupcakes in Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Michigan, and that close ROAD loss to Notre Dame looks pretty good compared to the flaming piles of offensive ineptitude put up by the Michigans.
Granted, they have still only played 3 games so far, and while the offense is looking decent, the defense has a ways to catch up. And a close loss to Notre Dame - while admirable - is still a loss. Marshall is not likely to tell us any more about this team, but they are one to keep an eye on. It is my hope that this is just smoke and mirrors.
On the subject of teams not getting enough respect, let me shout aloud that Oklahoma State is drastically under-rated. They are probably not the 4th best team in the country, but they are more than deserving a Top 25 spot. They destroyed Savannah State, and - grains of salt and all that jazz - that's still impressive. They destroyed Louisiana-Lafayette, who - despite being a Sun Belt team - is actually semi-okay. And a close loss to Arizona is not really anything to be deeply ashamed of. EDIT: because I am dumb and mis-remember things, I forgot that their loss was actually a blow-out. Still, the defense was never the strength of this team.
Now, I understand why people are reluctant to rank them. They lost a lot of people from last year, they haven't played really anybody (and lost to the BCS school on their schedule), and Wes Lunt got injured. Still, I'm telling y'all that they are a legit Top 25, if not Top 15 outfit. At least this Oklahoma school isn't burdened by the albatross of Landry Jones.
Iowa. Oh Iowa... I didn't think great things would happen with Iowa this year on offense, but Greg Davis has really found a way to submarine even those modest expectations. Let me be clear: despite Central Michigan's shiny 2-1 record, the Chippewas are an awful team. The same how Colorado remains terrible despite their 1st place in the Pac-12 South standing. This is not to let the defense off the hook (obviously giving up 9 pts in 50 seconds is not going to win you games), but Iowa's big problems are on the offense and I really don't know how it's going to get better.
Angry Kitty Award of the Week
Frankly, I think it's ludicrous that Iowa is favored over Minnesota this week (though I also thought that 51 pt o/u on the Wisconsin-UTEP game last week was free money, so what do I know). Maybe Greg Davis will turn out to not suck all of a sudden, but I have my doubts.
Worst team in the nation? Massachusetts Followed by Colorado. I am very angry that they managed to beat Washington State last week, but it does not change my opinion that the Buffaloes are awful. That is all.
PICKS TIME!
Guys, I didn't do as well last week. 17-8 overall (99-20 on the season), and a woeful 6-4 in the Big Ten. I would have still made out picking UTEP vs the spread though. Barely.
Team | Opponent | Winner | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
#1 Alabama | Mississippi | Alabama | 98% |
#2 Oregon | WashingtonState | Oregon | 99% |
#3 LSU | FCS | LSU | 99% |
#4 FloridaState | SouthFlorida | FloridaState | 99% |
#5 Georgia | Tennessee | Georgia | 75% |
#6 SouthCarolina | Kentucky | SouthCarolina | 99% |
#8 Stanford | Washington | Stanford | 97% |
#9 WestVirginia | #25 Baylor | WestVirginia | 70% |
#12 Texas | OklahomaState | OklahomaState | 62% |
#14 OhioState | #20 MichiganState | OhioState | 71% |
#15 TCU | SMU | TCU | 96% |
#17 Clemson | BostonCollege | Clemson | 97% |
#18 OregonState | Arizona | Arizona | 53% |
#19 Louisville | SouthernMississippi | Louisville | 98% |
#22 Nebraska | Wisconsin | Nebraska | 96% |
#24 BoiseState | NewMexico | BoiseState | 81% |
And the rest of the Big Ten:
Team | Opponent | Winner | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Illinois | PennState | Illinois | 58% |
Indiana | Northwestern | Northwestern | 85% |
Iowa | Minnesota | Minnesota | 77% |
Purdue | Marshall | Purdue | 99% |
Really hoping Wisconsin proves me wrong here... Also, my Stupid Upset Pick of the week is Minnesota over Iowa, because obviously.
- hoegher
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