FanPost

Home vs Road Performance in B10 Play - the Football Version

TOC just had a FanPost by Ducking Delvon looking at home and road play in hoops (HERE), and I decided to completely ripoff his idea but do it for football in the 20 years of the PSU era (1993-2012). My original goal was to look at home field advantage, but I also just like playing with the numbers. I also included NE, RU and MD despite them not facing the same teams as the B10 just to see where they fit.

Home Conference Records

Ohio State: 66-14, 0.825
Nebraska: 64-15, 0.810
Michigan: 60-20, 0.750
Penn State: 55-25, 0.688
Wisconsin: 52-24-3, 0.677
Iowa: 49-31, 0.613
Michigan State: 48-32, 0.600
Purdue: 43-35-2, 0.550
Maryland: 39-39, 0.500
Northwestern: 37-43, 0.463
Minnesota: 31-49, 0.388
Rutgers: 26-44, 0.371
Illinois: 25-55, 0.312
Indiana: 24-55, 0.304

I don't think there is too much surprise about the order of the teams, but I was amazed that IL had such a low winning percentage at home.

Road Conference Records

Ohio State: 58-21-1, 0.731
Nebraska: 49-28, 0.636
Michigan: 49-31, 0.613
Penn State: 46-33, 0.582
Wisconsin: 43-37, 0.537
Northwestern: 33-47, 0.412
Michigan State: 32-46-1, 0.411
Iowa: 32-47-1, 0.406
Purdue: 29-50-1, 0.369
Illinois: 26-53-1, 0.331
Maryland: 25-57, 0.305
Rutgers: 16-52-1, 0.239
Minnesota: 19-61, 0.237
Indiana: 12-68, 0.150

The order is mostly the same, with two notable exceptions. NW jumped 4 spots and IL jumped 3. IL was actually better on the road than at home which is embarrassing. NW had minimal drop off between the two, indicating how little home field advantage they have.

Home-Road Win Differential

Iowa: 17
Michigan State: 16
Nebraska: 15
Purdue: 14
Maryland: 14
Indiana: 12
Minnesota: 12
Michigan: 11
Rutgers: 10
Penn State: 9
Wisconsin: 9
Ohio State: 8
Northwestern: 4
Illinois: -1

These numbers require some analysis. The better teams (OSU, WI, PSU, MI) tend to be lower on the list because they do so well on the road. NW and IL are at the bottom because they have so little home field advantage. IN and MN are up high because they are so bad on the road. IA and MSU were in the sweet spot of the middle of the B10 where their home performance was good but they dropped off significantly on the road.

Home Win Dependence

Ohio State: 0.532
Nebraska: 0.552
Michigan: 0.550
Penn State: 0.539
Wisconsin: 0.531
Iowa: 0.605
Michigan State: 0.600
Purdue: 0.597
Northwestern: 0.529
Maryland: 0.609
Illinois: 0.490
Minnesota: 0.620
Rutgers: 0.619
Indiana: 0.667

The schools are listed in order of their total winning percentage in conference play over the period in question. As expected from the earlier numbers, the better teams tended to have a smaller fraction of their total wins come at home. The real outliers are NW and IL as discussed before, and IN has a terrible ratio showing how bad they've been on the road. MI is just a little more dependent on home wins than they should be. Notice that there's a big jump from the top 5 to the rest of the B10 barring the outliers.

Just for fun I did a scatter plot of the home vs road winning percentages for all 14 teams. It makes a very nice line from IN to OSU with only IL and NW being outliers. Ignoring IL and NW, a linear fit has a slope of 1.05 (home W%/road W%) with an R^2 value of 0.97. If I could figure out a good and convenient way to add it here, I would.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Off Tackle Empire

You must be a member of Off Tackle Empire to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Off Tackle Empire. You should read them.

Join Off Tackle Empire

You must be a member of Off Tackle Empire to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Off Tackle Empire. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker