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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK SEVEN (also slightly delayed)

[introduction]

THE RANKINGS

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 Oregon Pac-12 5-0 1.436 1.980 5 0.415 6
2 2 Baylor B12 4-0 1.359 2.376 1 0.723 35
3 10 FloridaState ACC 5-0 1.350 1.833 10 0.407 5
4 3 Washington Pac-12 4-1 1.234 1.594 13 0.371 4
5 4 Louisville Amer 5-0 1.206 1.459 18 0.323 1
6 5 Alabama SEC 5-0 1.154 1.405 23 0.332 2
7 15 Miami ACC 5-0 1.134 1.897 6 0.631 25
8 9 Stanford Pac-12 5-0 1.084 1.847 8 0.645 26
9 12 Clemson ACC 5-0 1.073 1.687 11 0.553 15
10 18 LSU SEC 5-1 0.963 1.844 9 0.755 41
11 6 ArizonaState Pac-12 3-2 0.938 1.989 4 0.883 63
12 7 Georgia SEC 4-1 0.930 1.885 7 0.817 50
13 8 OhioState B10 6-0 0.920 1.599 12 0.629 23
14 11 Wisconsin B10 3-2 0.897 1.229 41 0.419 7
15 17 Florida SEC 4-1 0.884 1.093 57 0.351 3
16 19 GeorgiaTech ACC 3-2 0.775 1.293 30 0.550 13
17 16 Arizona Pac-12 3-1 0.761 1.118 54 0.449 8
18 25 TexasTech B12 5-0 0.746 1.410 22 0.653 27
19 23 UCLA Pac-12 4-0 0.745 1.481 15 0.704 33
20 20 Utah Pac-12 3-2 0.730 1.461 17 0.702 32
21 32 Missouri SEC 5-0 0.698 1.496 14 0.757 42
22 30 Oklahoma B12 5-0 0.695 1.126 53 0.502 10
23 13 CentralFlorida Amer 4-1 0.683 1.276 33 0.613 22
24 26 Tennessee SEC 3-3 0.682 1.395 25 0.697 31
25 37 Ohio MAC 4-1 0.673 1.231 40 0.589 18

And the Big Ten in particular...

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
13 8 OhioState B10 6-0 0.920 1.599 12 0.629 23
14 11 Wisconsin B10 3-2 0.897 1.229 41 0.419 7
26 44 Indiana B10 3-2 0.670 1.999 3 1.177 93
29 14 PennState B10 3-2 0.622 1.128 51 0.558 16
44 68 Michigan B10 5-0 0.399 1.267 35 0.856 57
46 57 Nebraska B10 4-1 0.370 1.343 26 0.947 71
52 48 Iowa B10 4-2 0.270 0.898 89 0.662 29
53 53 Northwestern B10 4-1 0.269 1.279 32 0.993 78
56 77 MichiganState B10 4-1 0.266 0.906 83 0.672 30
62 34 Illinois B10 3-2 0.174 1.467 16 1.265 103
88 80 Minnesota B10 4-2 -0.164 0.885 94 1.046 82
110 112 Purdue B10 1-4 -0.643 0.613 111 1.229 98

A primer on what goes into these rankings can be found here. Some thoughts...

The Pac-12 Revolutionary Army is here to save us from our years of tyranny. Alleged ESPN hyperbole, ESS-EEE-CEE chants, and ROLL DAMN TIDE aside, the SEC really has been the top football conference in the NCAA for years. I keep a set of conference rankings on the season (that I've put even less thought into than my standard team-by-team assessments), and ranking conferences is foolish talk anyways (from an athletic perspective, they are really nothing more than a set of common opponents). But for your reading pleasure, here's how I've ranked them the past several years.

2012 - 1) SEC 2) Pac-12 3) Big 12

2011 - 1) SEC 2) Pac-12 3) Big Ten

2010 - 1) Pac-10 2) SEC 3) WAC* (sorry!)

2009 - 1) SEC 2) Big 12 3) ACC

2008 - 1) Big 12 2) Big Ten 3) SEC

The point is, it's been a while since the SEC wasn't the undisputed king (the Pac-10 was just barely ahead of the SEC in 2010, and obviously Auburn still won the BCS Championship). However, this year is shaping up to be a shift away from our redneck overlords. Currently:

2013 - 1) Pac-12 2) ACC 3) SEC

With #1 Oregon, #4 Washington, #9 Stanford, #11 Arizona State (I know, I know), the Pac-12 may not beat the SEC in the BCS Championship, but they at least put a good arguement for having the best core group of teams near the top (UCLA is #19, for those that are wondering).

* The 2010 WAC rates out that high because Boise State was #1, and Nevada and Hawaii weren't too bad either. Mostly Boise State. I should probably change up that formula a bit but I don't care that much.

There are 17 undefeated teams remaining. (NOTE: this post is made with the assumption that I don't know the result of Louisville-Rutgers, even though I do). While the ratings here still have to settle a bit for my win projection percentages to not be quite as egregiously wrong (thanks a bunch Arizona!), I can still plow on ahead and embarrass myself. What teams have the best chance of ending the regular season undefeated (Ohio State fans, this would be a good guide to keep track of)? Here's my current list:

Team Conf Record Und % Next Game
Louisville Amer 5-0 80% Rutgers
Baylor B12 4-0 79% KansasState
Alabama SEC 5-0 43% Kentucky
Oregon Pac-12 5-0 41% Washington
FloridaState ACC 5-0 39% BYE
OhioState B10 6-0 39% BYE
Miami ACC 5-0 24% BYE
Clemson ACC 5-0 16% BostonCollege
Stanford Pac-12 5-0 11% Utah
FresnoState MWC 5-0 4% BYE

Unsurprisingly, Louisville leads the pack. Given that they have actually already beaten Rutgers at the time of this writing, and that my pre-season Transplanted Europeans Conference pick is currently struggling with Temple of all teams, they are as near a sure thing as anything. Remember I said this when they lose at home to Central Florida next week.

Notably absent? Northern Illinois. The Huskies are Texas A&M as made by Artisan Entertainment: a poor knock-off. They have solid offense (#27 Hoegh, #27 S&P+), and an atrocious defense (#125 Hoegh, #110 S&P+). Please do not talk to me about them being ranked in the AP Poll.

This week in the sad, the bad, the Egads! (these teams are awful):

#115 - South Florida

#114 - Connecticut

#112 - Temple

#110 - Purdue

#098 - SMU

Special mention to Cincinnati and Southern Mississippi, who managed to lose to #115 South Florida and #126 FIU (that's dead last), respectively.

THE PICKINGS

Lines taken from 5Dimes.eu here, as of 2013-10-07. Home teams highlighted in blue.

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Oklahoma Texas Oklahoma 89% 14.0 16.3 Oklahoma
LSU Florida LSU 57% 7.0 2.2 Florida
TexasAM Mississippi TexasAM 89% 6.5 16.1 TexasAM
Louisville Rutgers Louisville 99% 17.0 28.2 Louisville
USC Arizona Arizona 71% 5.5 -7.3 Arizona
Connecticut SouthFlorida Connecticut 50% 5.0 0.1 SouthFlorida
Georgia Missouri Georgia 69% 8.5 6.6 Missouri
SouthCarolina Arkansas SouthCarolina 81% 5.5 12.0 SouthCarolina
Baylor KansasState Baylor 99% 17.5 37.3 Baylor
Oregon Washington Oregon 67% 14.0 5.7 Washington

And the Big Ten games...

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Michigan PennState PennState 68% 3.0 -6.3 PennState
Wisconsin Northwestern Wisconsin 91% 10.5 17.8 Wisconsin
Nebraska Purdue Nebraska 99% 14.0 28.8 Nebraska
MichiganState Indiana Indiana 80% 10.0 -11.5 Indiana

My Stupid Upset Pick of the Week is Georgia Tech (+7) over BYU.

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