Hey remember last year when West Virginia was ranked in the Top 10 partway through the season, before coming crashing back down to earth? Just saying, Texas Tech is looking mighty ripe right now.
THE RANKINGS
rk | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | FloridaState | ACC | 6-0 | 1.414 | 1.964 | 5 | 0.424 | 2 |
2 | 3 | Baylor | B12 | 6-0 | 1.385 | 2.295 | 1 | 0.646 | 21 |
3 | 4 | Alabama | SEC | 7-0 | 1.339 | 1.558 | 13 | 0.277 | 1 |
4 | 1 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 7-0 | 1.318 | 2.097 | 4 | 0.586 | 13 |
5 | 10 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | 5-2 | 1.095 | 2.105 | 3 | 0.806 | 46 |
6 | 5 | Louisville | Amer | 6-1 | 0.981 | 1.362 | 24 | 0.434 | 3 |
7 | 11 | Wisconsin | B10 | 5-2 | 0.918 | 1.317 | 28 | 0.455 | 6 |
8 | 8 | Miami | ACC | 6-0 | 0.897 | 1.670 | 8 | 0.697 | 27 |
9 | 6 | Washington | Pac-12 | 4-3 | 0.875 | 1.370 | 22 | 0.520 | 7 |
10 | 12 | OhioState | B10 | 7-0 | 0.854 | 1.649 | 9 | 0.723 | 33 |
11 | 19 | Missouri | SEC | 7-0 | 0.848 | 1.637 | 11 | 0.720 | 32 |
12 | 23 | GeorgiaTech | ACC | 4-3 | 0.847 | 1.386 | 21 | 0.552 | 8 |
13 | 20 | CentralFlorida | Amer | 5-1 | 0.845 | 1.571 | 12 | 0.677 | 24 |
14 | 7 | LSU | SEC | 6-2 | 0.844 | 1.645 | 10 | 0.729 | 38 |
15 | 14 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 6-1 | 0.824 | 1.400 | 20 | 0.580 | 10 |
16 | 9 | Clemson | ACC | 6-1 | 0.821 | 1.466 | 16 | 0.626 | 17 |
17 | 17 | BYU | Ind. | 5-2 | 0.751 | 1.351 | 26 | 0.608 | 15 |
18 | 24 | TexasAM | SEC | 5-2 | 0.734 | 2.170 | 2 | 1.244 | 102 |
19 | 16 | Utah | Pac-12 | 4-3 | 0.713 | 1.450 | 17 | 0.710 | 30 |
20 | 13 | Georgia | SEC | 4-3 | 0.690 | 1.677 | 7 | 0.900 | 58 |
21 | 18 | Auburn | SEC | 6-1 | 0.686 | 1.238 | 36 | 0.584 | 11 |
22 | 15 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 5-1 | 0.656 | 1.257 | 34 | 0.622 | 16 |
23 | 27 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 4-2 | 0.627 | 1.235 | 37 | 0.630 | 18 |
24 | 32 | VirginiaTech | ACC | 6-1 | 0.608 | 0.930 | 75 | 0.437 | 4 |
25 | 22 | SouthCarolina | SEC | 5-2 | 0.588 | 1.257 | 33 | 0.678 | 25 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
rk | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7 | 11 | Wisconsin | B10 | 5-2 | 0.918 | 1.317 | 28 | 0.455 | 6 |
10 | 12 | OhioState | B10 | 7-0 | 0.854 | 1.649 | 9 | 0.723 | 33 |
33 | 30 | PennState | B10 | 4-2 | 0.513 | 1.071 | 55 | 0.604 | 14 |
35 | 41 | Michigan | B10 | 6-1 | 0.483 | 1.500 | 15 | 0.967 | 72 |
39 | 36 | Indiana | B10 | 3-4 | 0.424 | 1.865 | 6 | 1.343 | 112 |
44 | 47 | MichiganState | B10 | 6-1 | 0.349 | 0.880 | 84 | 0.585 | 12 |
47 | 40 | Nebraska | B10 | 5-1 | 0.315 | 1.255 | 35 | 0.927 | 64 |
48 | 49 | Iowa | B10 | 4-3 | 0.304 | 0.958 | 71 | 0.684 | 26 |
63 | 71 | Illinois | B10 | 3-3 | 0.129 | 1.430 | 18 | 1.281 | 106 |
72 | 66 | Northwestern | B10 | 4-3 | 0.008 | 1.032 | 60 | 1.024 | 79 |
77 | 86 | Minnesota | B10 | 5-2 | -0.084 | 0.840 | 92 | 0.918 | 61 |
113 | 113 | Purdue | B10 | 1-6 | -0.686 | 0.505 | 120 | 1.121 | 83 |
A primer on what goes into these rankings can be found here. Some thoughts...
Where's the love for BYU? Not that you should pay much attention to the Coaches Poll anyway, but BYU continues to not be ranked (can't tell if they are receiving any votes, but I'm guessing not) and is receiving a single vote in the AP Poll. I realize they started off the season losing to a pretty poor Virginia team, but they've been doing just fine since then. They destroyed Texas, lost a close game to Utah in the Holy War (who you may remember just beat Stanford), and just took down a previously undefeated Houston team.
Of course, part of the reason I'm noting this is because Wisconsin plays BYU in 3 weeks, and we could really use a resume-boosting win (assuming we continue to win otherwise, knocking wood and all). The Coaches Poll still has us on the fringes of the Top 25, and the computers aren't going to be much help either (we're 8th in the Sagarin rankings... but 48th in the BCS set). Ohio State could always do us a solid and drop a couple games, though...
Relevant to Ohio State interests: there are ten undefeated teams remaining. From most likely to continue this trend, to least (based on my calculations of questionable quality, and not including conference championship games):
Team | Conf | Record | Und % | Next Game |
Baylor | B12 | 6-0 | 92% | Kansas |
FloridaState | ACC | 6-0 | 82% | NorthCarolinaState |
Alabama | SEC | 7-0 | 75% | Tennessee |
Oregon | Pac-12 | 7-0 | 65% | UCLA |
OhioState | B10 | 7-0 | 45% | PennState |
Missouri | SEC | 7-0 | 28% | SouthCarolina |
FresnoState | MWC | 6-0 | 26% | SanDiegoState |
Miami | ACC | 6-0 | 7% | WakeForest |
NorthernIllinois | MAC | 7-0 | 6% | EasternMichigan |
TexasTech | B12 | 7-0 | 0% | Oklahoma |
This list is going to get culled further, as one from FSU/Miami, Bama/Mizzou, Baylor/TTU (by which I mean Texas Tech is going to lose) is necessarily going to acquire a loss. But Ohio State is still going to have to root for three losses between the Bama, Oregon, FSU, Baylor quartet. Those odds aren't looking great here, but I thought Louisville was going to cruise through the season and look where that ended up (though I thought Central Florida was certainly good enough to spring the upset).
As far as the mid-majors, Fresno State has a decent shot, though they'll probably have to play Boise State in the MWC Championship again to get that BCS auto-bid (I'm hoping this isn't the case). I refuse to entertain talk of Northern Illinois. I've called them a knock-off of Texas A&M, and I'm assuming that they'll meet a similar fate.
The Weekly Crap-tastic Re-set I should really just re-name this to The American! (and Purdue):
#116 - Connecticut
#115 - South Florida
#113 - Purdue
#107 - Temple
#99 - California
THE PICKINGS
Lines taken from here as of 2013-10-21. Home teams highlighted in blue.
Overcat | Underdog | Proj Winner | Conf | Line | Hoegh | Pick vs Spd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BYU | BoiseState | BYU | 79% | 7.0 | 11.0 | BYU |
Rutgers | Houston | Houston | 78% | 7.0 | -10.4 | Houston |
Miami | WakeForest | Miami | 98% | 21.0 | 23.7 | Miami |
FloridaState | NorthCarolinaState | FloridaState | 99% | 29.5 | 44.3 | FloridaState |
Oklahoma | TexasTech | TexasTech | 53% | 7.0 | -0.9 | TexasTech |
Alabama | Tennessee | Alabama | 98% | 28.0 | 24.3 | Tennessee |
USC | Utah | Utah | 61% | 7.5 | -3.8 | Utah |
Missouri | SouthCarolina | Missouri | 71% | 3.0 | 7.3 | Missouri |
Baylor | Kansas | Baylor | 99% | 35.5 | 46.5 | Baylor |
Oregon | UCLA | Oregon | 92% | 23.0 | 18.7 | UCLA |
And the Big Ten games...
Overcat | Underdog | Proj Winner | Conf | Line | Hoegh | Pick vs Spd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OhioState | PennState | OhioState | 76% | 15.0 | 9.6 | PennState |
Nebraska | Minnesota | Nebraska | 80% | 10.5 | 11.3 | Nebraska |
Iowa | Northwestern | Iowa | 73% | 4.5 | 8.4 | Iowa |
MichiganState | Illinois | MichiganSTate | 68% | 11.5 | 6.2 | Illinois |
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