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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK SIX (slightly delayed)

DELAY DELAY DELAY. Sorry about work [/shrugs]. Rankings and pickings below do not incorporate Thursday's results because of this. Good news! This means you can laugh at me for picking Texas (-7) even after I know the final score.

THE RANKINGS

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 Oregon Pac-12 4-0 1.661 2.236 2 0.360 3
2 2 Baylor B12 3-0 1.660 2.243 1 0.364 6
3 4 Washington Pac-12 4-0 1.427 1.675 10 0.268 1
4 3 Louisville Amer 4-0 1.272 1.540 16 0.316 2
5 11 Alabama SEC 4-0 1.209 1.543 15 0.363 5
6 7 ArizonaState Pac-12 3-1 1.175 2.149 3 0.757 45
7 17 Georgia SEC 3-1 1.052 2.090 5 0.839 59
8 29 OhioState B10 5-0 1.015 1.685 9 0.602 26
9 34 Stanford Pac-12 4-0 0.996 1.752 8 0.663 33
10 5 FloridaState ACC 4-0 0.979 1.590 13 0.573 21
11 13 Wisconsin B10 3-2 0.963 1.280 39 0.400 7
12 38 Clemson ACC 4-0 0.958 1.570 14 0.578 24
13 10 CentralFlorida Amer 3-1 0.952 1.450 21 0.509 16
14 15 PennState B10 3-1 0.931 1.335 35 0.455 11
15 9 Miami ACC 4-0 0.902 1.653 11 0.681 34
16 14 Arizona Pac-12 3-1 0.857 1.213 42 0.438 9
17 16 Florida SEC 3-1 0.851 1.071 58 0.361 4
18 20 LSU SEC 4-1 0.834 1.611 12 0.714 40
19 8 GeorgiaTech ACC 3-1 0.788 1.182 44 0.469 12
20 30 Utah Pac-12 3-1 0.785 1.506 18 0.685 35
21 12 Auburn SEC 3-1 0.772 1.371 29 0.604 27
22 25 UtahState MWC 3-2 0.745 1.301 38 0.579 25
23 22 UCLA Pac-12 3-0 0.741 1.477 20 0.704 37
24 31 Syracuse ACC 2-2 0.711 1.370 30 0.654 32
25 32 TexasTech B12 4-0 0.699 1.331 36 0.637 28

And the Big Ten Ten in particular...

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
8 29 OhioState B10 5-0 1.015 1.685 9 0.602 26
11 13 Wisconsin B10 3-2 0.963 1.280 39 0.400 7
14 15 PennState B10 3-1 0.931 1.335 35 0.455 11
34 18 Illinois B10 3-1 0.597 2.015 6 1.272 100
44 41 Indiana B10 2-2 0.450 1.854 7 1.303 107
48 69 Iowa B10 4-1 0.403 0.920 86 0.576 23
53 59 Northwestern B10 4-0 0.298 1.341 33 1.019 81
57 48 Nebraska B10 3-1 0.256 1.377 28 1.095 87
68 57 Michigan B10 4-0 0.161 1.146 52 0.980 76
77 78 MichiganState B10 3-1 0.007 0.753 101 0.747 44
80 70 Minnesota B10 4-1 -0.021 1.009 71 1.030 82
112 106 Purdue B10 1-4 -0.626 0.612 109 1.209 93

A primer on what goes into these rankings can be found here. Some thoughts...

Briefly, your un-appreciated, un-loved, and un-known. At least, compared to what the AP has to say so far. For the sake of simplicity, I'm only including teams that received any AP votes in the latest poll. Somehow, Penn State does not qualify. Sorry.

Utah (#40 AP, #20 Hoegh) - Off to a great start y'all! Utah managed to lose to Oregon State (they of the loss to Eastern Washington this season), and I'm not allowed the benefit of yesterday's games (where Utah lost to UCLA). But a 27-34 loss to the AP #12 team isn't anything to be ashamed of.

Central Florida (#32 AP, #16 Hoegh) - I'm much more appreciative of this pick. Central Florida kept it close to South Carolina last week and beat Penn State (as I'm sure you all know). Other than a showdown in Week 8 against Louisville, they've ot pretty much a smooth sailing the rest of the way. I'm sure they'll be ranked soon enough.

Baylor (#17 AP, #2 Hoegh) - I DON'T KNOW OKAY. They rank #3 in Sagarin and #5 in F/+, so just leave me alone and go worship at the alter of Art Briles already.

Arizona, Wisconsin, and Arizona State also qualified here, but I really wanted to talk about Baylor. ALL HAIL ART BRILES.

And on the other end, let's talk about the Michigans of the world. Ideally, these are the teams you get your popcorn ready for, because they are about to come tumbling down (a la West Virginia, circa 2012).

Fresno State (#23 AP, #85 Hoegh) - This is a bit unfair, because Fresno State was up 42-3 on Hawaii last week, before allowing 34 straight points. Probably rode the coasting wave a bit far on that one, Bulldogs. But they've still allowed 45 pts (Rutgers), 25 pts (Cal Poly), and 40 pts (Boise State) in their other games. That's a defense that needs some work. Fortunately, they play Idaho this week.

Michigan (#19 AP, #68 Hoegh) - FVCK MICHIGAN. Also, those voters still putting Michigan above Baylor need to be slapped with a bouquet of dandelions and soon. Next, a 21-20 escape against Minnesota and Michigan somehow passes up Northwestern.

Mississippi (#24 AP, #69 Hoegh) - Well, a shutout is going to hurt you no matter what, and that may be a bit unfair against Alabama. But those Vanderbilt and Texas wins are looking worse by the week, so perhaps we should wait a year or so before assuming Hugh Freeze is going leading a juggernaut.

Your weekly reset for the Pre-Bill Snyder KSU Award. South Florida is still leading the pack, but Temple is making a charge! A thousand hells that those teams won't end up playing this year :(

#122 - South Florida

#117 - Temple

#112 - Purdue

#110 - Connecticut

#098 - Colorado

Welcome back Buffaloes!

THE PICKINGS

Lines taken from 5Dimes.eu here, as of 2013-10-03. Home teams highlighted in blue.

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Stanford Washington Washington 81% 7.5 -12.1 Washington
Texas IowaState Texas 86% 7.0 14.5 Texas
UCLA Utah Utah 54% 6.0 -1.2 Utah
FloridaState Maryland FloridaState 86% 16.0 14.8 Maryland
Florida Arkansas Florida 93% 11.5 19.2 Florida
Clemson Syracuse Clemson 70% 13.5 6.9 Syracuse
OklahomaState KansasState OklahomaState 94% 13.5 20.0 OklahomaState
Miami GeorgiaTech Miami 60% 5.5 3.2 GeorgiaTech
Georgia Tennessee Georgia 77% 10.5 10.0 Tennessee
Mississippi Auburn Auburn 91% 3.0 -17.5 Auburn

And the Big Ten games...

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
PennState Indiana PennState 84% 3.0 13.5 PennState
Iowa MichiganState Iowa 79% 1.0 11.1 Iowa
Nebraska Illinois Illinois 76% 9.5 -9.6 Illinois
Michigan Minnesota Michigan 65% 19.0 5.1 Minnesota
OhioState Northwestern OhioState 94% 7.0 20.2 OhioState

Stupid Upset Pick of the Week (which I've yet to get right) is Illinois (+9.5) over Nebraska. Northwestern, make me regret my choice.

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